Thread: Covid 19 -
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Old 15-04-2020, 12:39 PM   #1614
russellw
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Default Re: Covid 19 -

Let's restart with some hard data. The graph below shows the Australian daily
new case rate and the trend-lines show the polynomial and 4 day moving trend, both of which are heading in the right direction.



Our serious (defined as hospitalised) rate is currently sitting at 1.25% of cases and the mortality rate at 0.953%. This compares with the WHO declared global mortality rate of 3.4%; the NZ rate of 0.659% and the US rate of 4.242% although these numbers are obviously impacted by the quantity of testing that is being done.



For those advocating the herd immunity approach, based on current rates of serious illness and death and assuming a 60% community infection rate we would end up with something like:

15M infections;
188k serious cases; and
143k deaths.

The real figures would probably be lower for the serious cases, not that the health system could cope anyway but the number of deaths would likely be higher.
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