Quote:
Originally Posted by Romulus
What you're picking up is the number of actual cases reported which require intervention. Are we picking up asymptomatic carriers, those who don't know they've got cv19 or those that haven't bothered to test for it? This goes back to the 95% of people who don't require intervention.
Do you have any data on Denmark's approach? This would be interesting to see as they're dealing with this virus in a completely different manner to most countries.
Is it mandatory or legislated you must present to a health agency or testing agency if you have a cold or flu like symptoms?
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As I've already stated, we have no means of determining with any degree of statistical accuracy what the volume of asymptomatic cases actually is and the figures quoted earlier are based on a very small sample size and as such they are of no real use.
Likewise your figure of 95% not requiring intervention is plucked from where exactly? Just because you keep repeating it, doesn't make it correct and the Australian data I provided above shows that 9% of detected cases do require intervention here.
It's actually irrelevant what percentage of the population is running round asymptomatic given that (1) we already know that having had it once doesn't create immunity; (2) we've still only tested 3% of the population and (3) we have solid evidence that even a single person (asymptomatic or not) is capable of creating a cluster of new cases.
On that basis it would be reasonable to extrapolate that we are identifying a reasonable percentage of the actual cases or there would be more cluster outbreaks from infected people.
I'm not sure why you picked Denmark as 'different'. Denmark has largely followed a similar model to us and was one of the first to initiate lockdowns and legal sanctions for non-compliance and as such their case rate is better than other European countries at 155 per 100k compared to some similarly sized countries like Belgium (413) and Ireland (410) but not as well as Finland (88.5) or Australia (26.45).
They have an excellent (and free) health system which is no doubt helping keep their mortality rate well below other countries in Europe at 7.65 / 100k - Belgium is 64.7, Spain 51.9, Italy 45.7 and the Netherlands 27.5 but it's still way ahead of Australia at 0.35.
As they are about to start easing restrictions it will be a good case study to see if they get a spike in new cases above the current level of ~120-150 / day.