Thread: Covid 19 -
View Single Post
Old 14-08-2020, 03:28 AM   #5294
EgoFG
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 1,848
Default Re: Covid 19 -


The thing is that these percentages are not real as we do not know how many people have had it.


Sweden appears to be near herd immunity with 85,000 cases in 10,000,000 people, but WHO says herd immunity would likely be %60-%80 infected.
Extrapolating those numbers, for every reported case there would be 70 - 90 unreported cases.
If this can then be projected to Germany (very small sample size BTW) then -

This is almost 2 orders of magnitude error in those percentages in the first link above, ie when it says %78 it would be in reality 0.9% - 1.1%


Please feel free to re-examine the numbers.


Even if the heard immunity is off, and is really under 50%, then it means the virus is not very virile.


Again, this is why I said Sweden was interesting
EgoFG is offline