Today we will look at the polynomial trend curves across various Asian countries. It is important to note that we have changed these from 3rd to 5th order polynomials because the data sets are now much larger and 3rd order doesn't show enough detail.
The first graph looks at those countries with the higher case numbers and it is clear to see that Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Bangladesh had been on a downward trend since mid to late June but are now trending upward again the last couple of weeks. Iraq and the Philippines had been climbing almost unabated and while that remains true for Iraq with almost no dip in the 'line', the Philippines might just have turned the corner although another week or two will need to pass to be sure.
To prove the point in the opening paragraph, here is the same chart as a 3rd order polynomial trend which really tells quite a different story:
The intermediate case size group is a little less consistent in the trend lines. Heading clearly the right way are Japan, Kazakhstan and Israel while Indonesia and Iran are heading in the wrong direction. Turkey and Qatar look to be climbing again as does Oman although the latter is only just starting to trend upward.
The final chart is the lowest case number group and the most obvious trend here is the steep rise for Nepal over the last 4 weeks which looks a bit like our second wave in terms of being (much) worse than their first. Wed can also see that Singapore, Azerbaijan, Bahrain and the UAE have started slight upward trends over about the last fortnight while Kuwait has neither really gained or lost ground since late May. The good news stories are Kyrgyzstan, Singapore and Uzbekistan with the former pair dropping to almost nothing and the latter trending downward for the last 3 weeks.
