A while back we looked at some modelling predictions about case numbers and likely deaths in Australia and the USA.
Starting with the USA and the model for case numbers, it is tracking pretty much in line with the higher of the two possible models so on target for 11M cases by the end of October.
Thankfully, the mortality model is tracking with the lower of the two potential outcomes but that's still going to be ~220k deaths by the end of October.
It's a different story in Australia where the case numbers are currently trending above even the upper prediction but I'd expect that to start heading back down toward the lower of those lines in the next few weeks.
I'm not so confident that the mortality trend will get back down to the lower line or even the upper line given we are still recording high daily numbers however, with the smaller case numbers this week it might.
