[russellw]

Florida seems to be following a not dissimilar pattern to the UK with their CMR at 0.451% which is close to the 0.446% we saw in the UK with 60% having received at least one jab and 50% two (the UK is much higher at 89% with at least one dose).

What is clear from both is that the infection rates aren't going down now that they have opened up under the vaccine umbrella although the crude mortality rates are going down albeit not anywhere near enough.

Florida is having record case numbers and a 19.6k cases / day average from their 16.7M adult population or about 117 cases / 100k.

The UK is averaging 29k cases / day from their 52M adult population or 56 cases / 100k although the case numbers are improving slowly.

Either way, the CMR will need to fall well below the current ~0.4% before mortalities will approach acceptable levels given that:

1. The current case rate for the UK would still result in 10M cases and 42k deaths per annum which is a fair bit higher than the 19k annual deaths from Influenza and Pneumonia recorded in 2019.

That's 82 deaths / 100k of adult population which compares favourably with the current COVID figure of 192/100k and with the current leading cause of death (Alzheimer/Dementia) at 98.8/100k but is more than double the 33.8/100k from Influenza and Pneumonia and > 25x the rate for road fatalities at 3.16

2. The current case rate for Florida would see 7M cases and 32k deaths or about 154 deaths / 100k of total population. That compares with 6.7/100k from homicide, 14/100k from road accidents, 25.5/100k from drug overdose and the ~177/100k from COVID19 thus far.

Obviously, those case rates shouldn't be sustainable in the mid terms so those numbers are very much a worst case scenario.