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Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0
Saw this opinion article today and thought it did a pretty good job of summarising recent discussions in this thread about opening our country back up and the challenges associated with the options available.
Some of the data that is presented in here would need some validation, as I'm not sure of the accuracy of some of it, but nevertheless it seems pretty balanced to me.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-...down/100461128
This heading sums it up for me: No option is particularly good |
The underlying data looks good to me as a lot of what they reference comes form the excellent report from the AIHW.
The highlight for me:
The Grattan Institute has suggested lifting lockdowns only when 80 per cent of the entire population has been double vaccinated (not 70-80 per cent of people aged 16+ as the NSW and national plans envisage, which amounts to 56-64 per cent of the population).
Grattan believes its plan would cost 2,000-3,000 lives per year; a cost it believes the public would accept.
I've been saying that for awhile and their 2-3k number aligns pretty much with what we'd see if we could mirror the Israeli experience where my models show about 2,868 deaths in the first year.
At the UK level (90% of 16+ but only 66.67% of whole population) it wouldn't be sustainable as I said yesterday, with my model showing something like 13k deaths in the first year.
The message is simple from my POV. Open too early and accept the high case and mortality numbers or wait until vaccination levels are higher although I don't see that we could ever reach 80% of whole population when we have some 4M (or 15%) of the population under 12 years of age so that would mean that only 5% of the 12+ age group would be able to not get vaccinated.