Quote:
Originally Posted by T3rminator
I wonder if health authorities, or anyone else for that matter, have done the numbers in terms of what is an acceptable number of cases per day.
For example, if the average stay for a covid hospitilisation is, say, 14 days. And we have X number of "beds" for covid patients without severely impacting other non covid patients. And Y% of Covid cases (Z) results in hospitilisation. Then what is the Z that can we live with?
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I'm sure they have. If I had to do some quick back-of-the-envelope numbers, I'd say (based on Delta cases):
Average stay 12 days;
Average cases requiring hospitalisation: 12.1%;
Average cases requiring ICU: 4.1%.
It's the latter number that has been the focus to date with (for example) NSW having 844 ICU beds available although I suspect the average stay there might be a bit lower given the mortality rate but you could take the simple linear approach and say ....
844 beds available means 844 ICU cases over (let's say) 10 days.
844 ICU cases at 4% of infections means 21,100 cases over 10 days - which number we have already exceeded.
The saviour here, it that Omicron cases (based on the UK data I posted the other day) seem to have ICU admission rates about 1/10th those of Delta which would translate to 200k cases over our 10-day period instead.