Why the ICE will be produced for longer than people realise

[Syndrome]

The ONLY way for the EV to replace the ICE is if governments mandate the change. Otherwise the ICE is still the better option in most circumstances.

[whynot]

I agree. ICE will be around for a long time yet.

However, to quote Arthur C Clarke, “we tend to overestimate what we can do in the near future and grossly underestimate what can be done in the distant future. This is because the human imagination extrapolates in a straight line, while real world events develop exponentially like compound interest.”

The issue, as clearly pointed out in the video, is that when it comes to energy density, batteries still have a long way to go. That said, the energy density of liquid fuel is “fix”, insomuch that, while it is possible to burn it more efficiently, it upper limit of energy density is fixed by the limits of chemical reactions. There is an interesting side by Matsu****a Battery Co. that notes in the period from 1975 to 1990, energy density of batteries (measured in Wh/l) only increased 1.8 times. In the period from 1990 to 2005, the energy density increased by 5.2 times. And in the period from 2010 to 2020, energy density has tripled. Given the present significant R&D into improving battery energy density, it will be interesting to see where the technology ends up in, say, 20-30 years time.

There is another interesting economic twist. As EV start to displace ICE, the demand for liquid fuel will fall. In turn, the price of liquid fuel should fall as well. Which tilts the economics back towards using ICE. I suspect as that as the two technologies battle it out, expect improvements in both the ICE and EV (which is good news for us as consumers).

[whynot]

Well, there you go. I never realised that there was a naughty word in a well known Japanese battery manufacturer ...

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by whynot

Well, there you go. I never realised that there was a naughty word in a well known Japanese battery manufacturer ...

lol

like the famous beach in Japan

https://www.surfline.com/surf-report...65fad6a7708dae

this one's on the bucket list to surf, just for the name haha

[xxx000]

"around" or being produced in similar numbers to today?

Even mates with lawnmowing businesses have switched from petrol engines to batteries.
Solar uptake on homes is going gangbusters many with Tesla batteries as part of it.
In my work I see countless Teslas on the road every day and every major shopping centre has charging facilities, many are free and hooked up to the centres solar panels.


The change is clearly inevitable especially with the investment by major institutions.

The "best" argument to the contrary says maybe in 10 years, however this is a random number that's far enough in the future to make the ICE devotees feel comfortable about their bias.

[jpd80]

An often overlooked fact is that the bulk of Australia's population is located within 200 km of the coast, there's a great opportunity for people to embrace at least one EV in a two car family. For single vehicle families, a hybrid or PHEV may be a better choice to blend the old with the new and skip the whole range anxiety thing. The whole idea is to move the electrification discussion forward and include everyone at different levels.

People are smart and in the past 20 years, a lot of old ideas on vehicles have been left behind,
the thought that relaxed big capacity engines were needed for comfortable long distance travel,
has been mostly supplanted by small capacity ICEs in petrol or diesels and complex automatics.
Toyota is now taking the next step with wider use of hybrids over diesels but more needs to be done.
I can see electrification slowly taking over, the journey may be longer than some think but everyone
is taking it at different parts of their lives, older people buy their last vehicle as young people buy their first.

[Syndrome]

Originally Posted by xxx000

"around" or being produced in similar numbers to today?

Even mates with lawnmowing businesses have switched from petrol engines to batteries.
Solar uptake on homes is going gangbusters many with Tesla batteries as part of it.
In my work I see countless Teslas on the road every day and every major shopping centre has charging facilities, many are free and hooked up to the centres solar panels.

The change is clearly inevitable especially with the investment by major institutions.

The "best" argument to the contrary says maybe in 10 years, however this is a random number that's far enough in the future to make the ICE devotees feel comfortable about their bias.

EVs will continue to penetrate the new car market. Nobody doubts that. But it will be a long time before they are in the majority.

Calling us "ICE devotees" is being dismissive as it an attempt to label us as resistant to change. We are realists, not dreamers.

[Ben73]

Originally Posted by Syndrome

EVs will continue to penetrate the new car market. Nobody doubts that. But it will be a long time before they are in the majority.

Calling us "ICE devotees" is being dismissive as it an attempt to label us as resistant to change. We are realists, not dreamers.

But if we don't put everyone into a category how will we generalize people for being less intelligent than ourselves and talk down to them
Pick a side!

[Sprintey]

Another vote for Mazda, Skyactiv-X blends the ICE motor, part time compression ignition, part time spark ignition, it's pretty amazing tech. 15:1 compression I think?

[Ben73]

Originally Posted by xxx000

Even mates with lawnmowing businesses have switched from petrol engines to batteries.
Solar uptake on homes is going gangbusters many with Tesla batteries as part of it.
In my work I see countless Teslas on the road every day and every major shopping centre has charging facilities, many are free and hooked up to the centres solar panels.


The change is clearly inevitable especially with the investment by major institutions.

The "best" argument to the contrary says maybe in 10 years, however this is a random number that's far enough in the future to make the ICE devotees feel comfortable about their bias.

Pretty much all anecdotal evidences.

Firstly I don't think I've ever seen a lawn mowing business using an electric mower. I see heaps of those business's when walking my dogs around everywhere.

I know quite a few people with Solar. None have Tesla batteries.

I drive 50,000kms a year and see Tesla's once or twice a week. The sales stats show that almost no one is buying them.


My anecdotal evidence contradicts yours. Maybe if it talk down at you it will convince you I'm right. Isn't that how that works?

Originally Posted by Syndrome

I can't listen to him as his style of communication is abrasive and unappealing.

He has changed up his style in the last few videos. Less sarcastic and more serious.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Ben73

Pretty much all anecdotal evidences.

Firstly I don't think I've ever seen a lawn mowing business using an electric mower. I see heaps of those business's when walking my dogs around everywhere.

Our local Jim's Mowing swears by his Electric Mower.

But accept anecdotal isn't always fact. I'm seeing more Model 3's in Sydney. They are selling well enough.

[Mowdit]

Nice article
Great practicle example (tax deduction)

Yes change is inevitable, as batteries improve and evolve the cost will decrease and uptake improve, but without a scientific miracle or quantum leap it would appear to be quite some way off yet.

I was disappointed that he didn't cover just how much the ICE engine efficiency has improved in the last 40 years.... Can it be further improved ????? (a new hydrocarbon based fuel blend/hybrid maybe, lets face it most ICE are pretty well engineered/manufactured and high strung these days).

Sorry whynot, will disagree with your comment on falling demand for liquid fuel, world population growth will offset the EV uptake, so a fall in demand for liquid fuel won't happen for a very long time (until EV become affordable to Joe Average in current third world economies ) 2075 maybe

Planting a tree a year works for me (along with solar planels, living near work, being frugal, ........)

[xxx000]

Originally Posted by Mowdit

Nice article
Great practicle example (tax deduction)

Yes change is inevitable, as batteries improve and evolve the cost will decrease and uptake improve, but without a scientific miracle or quantum leap it would appear to be quite some way off yet.

I was disappointed that he didn't cover just how much the ICE engine efficiency has improved in the last 40 years.... Can it be further improved ????? (a new hydrocarbon based fuel blend/hybrid maybe, lets face it most ICE are pretty well engineered/manufactured and high strung these days).

Sorry whynot, will disagree with your comment on falling demand for liquid fuel, world population growth will offset the EV uptake, so a fall in demand for liquid fuel won't happen for a very long time (until EV become affordable to Joe Average in current third world economies ) 2075 maybe

Planting a tree a year works for me (along with solar planels, living near work, being frugal, ........)

I'm not aware of any research or work into improving the efficiency of ICE, are you?
On the other hand there are huge investments into EVs and everything associated with them
Car manufacturers are dropping ICE replacing it with EV or Hybrid.
Sounds to me that you're in denial about both the future and what's happening right now

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by xxx000

I'm not aware of any research or work into improving the efficiency of ICE, are you?
On the other hand there are huge investments into EVs and everything associated with them
Car manufacturers are dropping ICE replacing it with EV or Hybrid.
Sounds to me that you're in denial about both the future and what's happening right now

Toyotas new cutting edge ICEs are now at 40% efficiency which was once considered unattainable.
Consumers are going to be the big winners in competing technology improving vehicles in ways that
can be seen today.

On a different note, I read certain advances in battery chemistry happening in Australia will lead to
Super quick battery charging with early testing in research showing full charge possible in as low
as 8 minutes.
Now that is the kind of development that could turn arguments on their head.

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by xxx000

I'm not aware of any research or work into improving the efficiency of ICE, are you?
On the other hand there are huge investments into EVs and everything associated with them
Car manufacturers are dropping ICE replacing it with EV or Hybrid.
Sounds to me that you're in denial about both the future and what's happening right now

Why do all EV salad munching advocates have to resort to insulting people that don't share their agenda. you need to learn that it has a reverse affect.

If you not aware of any new technology to improve efficiency for Petrol & Diesel engines your hardly worth talking too.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Bevsta007

Why do all EV salad munching advocates have to resort to insulting people that don't share their agenda. you need to learn that it has a reverse affect.

If you not aware of any new technology to improve efficiency for Petrol & Diesel engines your hardly worth talking too.

It's called Confirmation bias, report everything that supports an opinion and ignore everything that doesn't.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by Bevsta007

Why do all EV salad munching advocates have to resort to insulting people that don't share their agenda. you need to learn that it has a reverse affect.

If you not aware of any new technology to improve efficiency for Petrol & Diesel engines your hardly worth talking too.

Exactly. These rabid greenies are just way too biased and brainwashed to be taken seriously, and they always spout over dramatic views to get attention.

Until EV's become profitable for manufacturers, then ICE will still continue to sell. EV's are just a money pit, with profit points probably a decade or 2 down the road.

There will come a point where it all changes, but it won't be in the short term like these rabid greenies keep saying it will. Will be a long time before EV's become the majority on the roads.

[Whitey-AMG]

All depends on policy

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-40726868

Its likley we will see a quantum shift a decade after this kind of policy takes place - so realistically after 2045 - 2050 we'd expect to see large scale adoption of EV's by all manufacturers and the public globally.

Its on its way - but slowly - as expected.

[Raptor]

Originally Posted by Bevsta007

Why do all EV salad munching advocates have to resort to insulting people that don't share their agenda. you need to learn that it has a reverse affect...

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Exactly. These rabid greenies are just way too biased and brainwashed to be taken seriously, and they always spout over dramatic views to get attention....

Oh the irony

Calling each other names is bad ok. Which ever view you are putting forward.







.

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by Raptor

Oh the irony

Calling each other names is bad ok. Which ever view you are putting forward.







.

Its Humor Raptor. because they are just funny people.

[whynot]

Originally Posted by Mowdit

Nice article

Sorry whynot, will disagree with your comment on falling demand for liquid fuel, world population growth will offset the EV uptake, so a fall in demand for liquid fuel won't happen for a very long time (until EV become affordable to Joe Average in current third world economies ) 2075 maybe

Mowdit, you are correct. I agree with your comment that liquid fuel still has growth potential. A good example is coal. Even though demand for coal for electricity generation is falling in places like the USA (partly because of the glut in natural gas), the world wide consumption for coal is still increasing.

The point I was trying to make, was that economic/consumer forces are often a lot more intertwined that it appears on the surface. I do believe that at some point there will be a transition in transportation from liquid fuel to battery. But it won't be a simple transition. It will occur over decades.

[Tassie f100]

A relevent question in regard to the change from I.C.E to electric,is how is the Govt going to replace the huge dollars that is collected in tax and excise on fossil fuels.When the Govt is
collecting a minimum 50c ,litre for fuels how are they going to make that revenue when electicity is at the equivilent of $4-5 per refuel of which the Govt doesn’t really get any of.

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by Tassie f100

A relevent question in regard to the change from I.C.E to electric,is how is the Govt going to replace the huge dollars that is collected in tax and excise on fossil fuels.When the Govt is
collecting a minimum 50c ,litre for fuels how are they going to make that revenue when electicity is at the equivilent of $4-5 per refuel of which the Govt doesn’t really get any of.

Doesn't NZ have a road tax, a charge for every k driven per year?

[Tassie f100]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

Doesn't NZ have a road tax, a charge for every k driven per year?

I don’t know about NZ road tax!but I can be pretty sure the Aust Govt can’t really survive without $billions in fuel related income.

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

Doesn't NZ have a road tax, a charge for every k driven per year?

They do for Diesels, not Petrol's & not EV's yet tat I know of..

for Governments to support EV's I believe there will have to be a road tax for them

[kmav23]

Originally Posted by Tassie f100

A relevent question in regard to the change from I.C.E to electric,is how is the Govt going to replace the huge dollars that is collected in tax and excise on fossil fuels.When the Govt is
collecting a minimum 50c ,litre for fuels how are they going to make that revenue when electicity is at the equivilent of $4-5 per refuel of which the Govt doesn’t really get any of.

The government spends billions on national security.

Billions on wars and lives for middle east wars.

Energy independence and security is worth going full Ev.


Generating all your own clean domestic power.

Major conflicts wars instability in the world.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by kmav23

The government spends billions on national security.

Billions on wars and lives for middle east wars.

Energy independence and security is worth going full Ev.


Generating all your own clean domestic power.

Major conflicts wars instability in the world.

You know, before covid, a lot of would have said, " yeah, but..."
But honestly, our world has changed in way that mean we now embrace new ways
of working and shopping so I have to wonder if people take a different view to oil
companies and just paying whatever price they decide. Maybe the worm finally
turns and more people switch to electric and hybrids making big oil the enemy.

[PG2]

Originally Posted by Tassie f100

A relevent question in regard to the change from I.C.E to electric,is how is the Govt going to replace the huge dollars that is collected in tax and excise on fossil fuels.When the Govt is
collecting a minimum 50c ,litre for fuels how are they going to make that revenue when electicity is at the equivilent of $4-5 per refuel of which the Govt doesn’t really get any of.

Originally Posted by kmav23

The government spends billions on national security.

Billions on wars and lives for middle east wars.

Energy independence and security is worth going full Ev.


Generating all your own clean domestic power.

Major conflicts wars instability in the world.

All you did is ramble and not answer the question. Was this an automated response?

[Vesper Martini]

I've watched this guys videos before - he knows his stuff, this clip seemed very impartial making good for & against points.

Things i took from it.

carmakers are in it to make money (yet many of them struggle without government help)
ICE cars are far more profitable for them & governments I shouldn't need to explain why.

the point about us driving old Honda Civics, people like new things - they Buys pickups because they might get a load of Mulch one day.. sports cars etc

there is a particular person on this forum that brings good arguments to owning a Tesla, but a point from this clip asks could you manage if it was your only car?

its easy for someone that has a collection to fit in an EV

[FTE217]

Everything that is green, need a good pruning, spring is in the air, malacka's everywhere