Peak Oil, diesel first to go?

[Maka]

Hi guys & gals, heres a very interesting read on diesel fuel production falls.

Meanwhile, in France there are riots going on atm over big diesel fuel hikes because of climate change apparently, reading this link may give you the real reason for the price hike & its implications for other countries.

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2...oming-for-you/

cheers, Maka

[superyob]

Scarcity/security of supply, rather than climate change fiction, is most likely to fuel protests I imagine. No pun intended.

[lra]

A couple of weeks ago, I saw a TV docu (The city in the sky) which was about how many planes and passengers are in the air at any given time, today. They predicted that by 2050, the number would double, and the congestion problem it would cause, particularly over USA.
I immediately thought “BS”, by that time, unless they find an alternate method of powering an Airbus A380, planes will either be obsolete, or so unaffordable that air-travel will be out of reach of the ordinary traveller/tourist.
As for diesel running out, or being banned in other countries, manufacturers will continue to import, and dump them in Australia, and Aussies will be stupid enough to continue buying them.

[chevypower]

Originally Posted by lra

A couple of weeks ago, I saw a TV docu (The city in the sky) which was about how many planes and passengers are in the air at any given time, today. They predicted that by 2050, the number would double, and the congestion problem it would cause, particularly over USA.
I immediately thought “BS”, by that time, unless they find an alternate method of powering an Airbus A380, planes will either be obsolete, or so unaffordable that air-travel will be out of reach of the ordinary traveller/tourist.
As for diesel running out, or being banned in other countries, manufacturers will continue to import, and dump them in Australia, and Aussies will be stupid enough to continue buying them.

Interesting. Boeing and Airbus have orders that will take them about a decade to fulfill, so they have to prepare well beyond that for the next load of orders. For example, the 797 will launch in 2025. You can bet the order books will be backlogged to 2035 before they roll the first one out in Everett. But according to you, it’s going to be gone just like that. 😂🤣😆

[Mainforcepatrol]

[QUOTE=lra;6224761]
I immediately thought “BS”, by that time, unless they find an alternate method of powering an Airbus A380, planes will either be obsolete, or so unaffordable that air-travel will be out of reach of the ordinary traveller/tourist.

They have been trialing aviation biofuels for a few years but no doubt it wont come to a grinding halt as they will find alternatives to power aeroplanes.

[ozpacman]

Same old, same old mate. The 'Peak Oil' alarmists told us we were going to run out 20 years ago.

I'm not too concerned. Just a few more diesel haters having a sook.

Meh!

[cheap]

Hmm .... 🤔 Maybe I'm missing something, but Diesel and Gasoline are derived from the same stuff - crude oil.

Refining 10ltrs of crude oil produces approximately:

4.6 ltrs of Gasoline (46%)
0.9 ltrs of Kero (9%)
2.6 ltrs of Diesel (26%)
and
1.9 ltrs of (heavy oil, lubricants, asphalt and other stuff) (19%)

These ratios do not move by much and as far as I know there is no way to refine crude oil and not also produce diesel. i.e. you can not one day decide to produce 10 litres of gasoline from 10 litres of crude oil.

The article like all previous peak oil predictions is misleading and full of non-facts.

[Sprintey]

Maka that was a great link and explains some things. Notably

1) why the US shale patch continued to get funding from Wall St even though after the oil fall 2014ish they were insolvent and drowning in debt, funding still got provided
2) why Tesla will appear to be the same, it will get funding, it will be protected. tbtf
3) why the motor Execs are rushing headlong into electric, it's a paradigm change and even greater disruption is predicted
4) and maybe why French diesel went up 25% in last few months before tax mentioned, and banning in Paris mentioned by their government.

One thing I found not quite right with banning diesel, was CO2 arguments - it is from 5% to 30% more efficient than petrol, depending on the weight of the vehicle. Banning must have been justified on particulate emissions - which is a very real health benefit and dovetails nicely into a potential diesel production decline.

cheap thanks for the breakdown of crude being refined. I'd qualify that not all types of crude are the same, and are priced differently too. Within the markets there are price differences between West Texas Intermediate, Brent, Light Crude and others; and these price differences fluctuate over time. For example recently some of the heavy Canadian tar sands product has been as low as $12 a barrel (caused by so much of it being produced while pipeline access to US refineries is at a premium. Furthermore, the US refineries are tooled to process the lighter oils produced through shale and are running flat tack. Perhaps the shortage of diesel production and heavier fuels can be attributed to the refineries being set up for other fuels? But in a market that decline would not continue since 2007 (heavier fuels) - other refineries would adjust to process it if the price rose in relative terms and created an arbitrage.

Depletion in the Eagle Ford basin is real, and happening much more rapidly than a conventional field. Australian produced oil is a light crude, and we export it at higher prices, and import heavier crude for our refineries to break down, pocketing the difference in price - or that's how it used to work. Maybe keeping our countryside fracking free is a smarter plan than we realise...

From what I could understand in the translated article, diesel production is falling, but underneath, the heavier fuels being produced have fallen more. Think bulk cargo vessel fuel - the ones where 6 ships are supposed to pollute more than entire countries' vehicle fleets. Being Spanish or South Americans, the authors contend that supply/demand does not explain this (naughty capitalism and liberalism!) - and what is really happening is the types of crude able to be more easily/inexpensively refined into diesel and the heavier fuels, are not yielding as much of it.

Now how this happens with gargantuan tar sand fields is beyond me. I can understand all the fracking giving lighter crude more easily refined into petrol, I can understand the US becoming a net exporter, I can half support the Russians believing oil is abiotic, digging deeper wells and becoming a producing powerhouse. But I can see that the events I numbered above, can be explained by this hypothesis. Any oil men on the forums feel free to correct me.

One final thing to consider - recent press has come out with scientists telling us all to stop eating meat, go to veggies, eat insects etc. If the spirit of this article is true (gov blames other bogeyman to ban something that is declining) what does that infer for global high end food supply chains? And that's before the Grand Solar Minimum and so many hail/snow/frost events trashing crops...

[Maka]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

Maka that was a great link and explains some things. Notably

1) why the US shale patch continued to get funding from Wall St even though after the oil fall 2014ish they were insolvent and drowning in debt, funding still got provided
2) why Tesla will appear to be the same, it will get funding, it will be protected. tbtf
3) why the motor Execs are rushing headlong into electric, it's a paradigm change and even greater disruption is predicted
4) and maybe why French diesel went up 25% in last few months before tax mentioned, and banning in Paris mentioned by their government.

One thing I found not quite right with banning diesel, was CO2 arguments - it is from 5% to 30% more efficient than petrol, depending on the weight of the vehicle. Banning must have been justified on particulate emissions - which is a very real health benefit and dovetails nicely into a potential diesel production decline.

cheap thanks for the breakdown of crude being refined. I'd qualify that not all types of crude are the same, and are priced differently too. Within the markets there are price differences between West Texas Intermediate, Brent, Light Crude and others; and these price differences fluctuate over time. For example recently some of the heavy Canadian tar sands product has been as low as $12 a barrel (caused by so much of it being produced while pipeline access to US refineries is at a premium. Furthermore, the US refineries are tooled to process the lighter oils produced through shale and are running flat tack. Perhaps the shortage of diesel production and heavier fuels can be attributed to the refineries being set up for other fuels? But in a market that decline would not continue since 2007 (heavier fuels) - other refineries would adjust to process it if the price rose in relative terms and created an arbitrage.

Depletion in the Eagle Ford basin is real, and happening much more rapidly than a conventional field. Australian produced oil is a light crude, and we export it at higher prices, and import heavier crude for our refineries to break down, pocketing the difference in price - or that's how it used to work. Maybe keeping our countryside fracking free is a smarter plan than we realise...

From what I could understand in the translated article, diesel production is falling, but underneath, the heavier fuels being produced have fallen more. Think bulk cargo vessel fuel - the ones where 6 ships are supposed to pollute more than entire countries' vehicle fleets. Being Spanish or South Americans, the authors contend that supply/demand does not explain this (naughty capitalism and liberalism!) - and what is really happening is the types of crude able to be more easily/inexpensively refined into diesel and the heavier fuels, are not yielding as much of it.

Now how this happens with gargantuan tar sand fields is beyond me. I can understand all the fracking giving lighter crude more easily refined into petrol, I can understand the US becoming a net exporter, I can half support the Russians believing oil is abiotic, digging deeper wells and becoming a producing powerhouse. But I can see that the events I numbered above, can be explained by this hypothesis. Any oil men on the forums feel free to correct me.

One final thing to consider - recent press has come out with scientists telling us all to stop eating meat, go to veggies, eat insects etc. If the spirit of this article is true (gov blames other bogeyman to ban something that is declining) what does that infer for global high end food supply chains? And that's before the Grand Solar Minimum and so many hail/snow/frost events trashing crops...

Awesome summary & comments on the link & situation Sprintey, much appreciated!!

cheers, Maka

[Romulus]

Originally Posted by ozpacman

Same old, same old mate. The 'Peak Oil' alarmists told us we were going to run out 20 years ago.

I'm not too concerned. Just a few more diesel haters having a sook.

Meh!

Just got back from working at Barrow Island. The Gorgan and Janske basins have enough gas and oil reserves for the next 50 years. Chevron have entered and arrangement with Woodside regarding other gas and oil fields in the Northwest. Peak oil? It's alarmist language from the climate change fraud peddlers and the NWO.

BTW, France isn't protesting about fuel tax. They're protesting about the take over of their country by the EU and globalists. I see a European Spring upon us. People have had enough of the LGBTI, politically correct and NWO narratives.

[Maka]

Originally Posted by Romulus

Just got back from working at Barrow Island. The Gorgan and Janske basins have enough gas and oil reserves for the next 50 years. Chevron have entered and arrangement with Woodside regarding other gas and oil fields in the Northwest. Peak oil? It's alarmist language from the climate change fraud peddlers and the NWO.

BTW, France isn't protesting about fuel tax. They're protesting about the take over of their country by the EU and globalists. I see a European Spring upon us. People have had enough of the LGBTI, politically correct and NWO narratives.

From the Al Jazeera link -

"It all started on November 17 when tens of thousands of people took to the streets across the country to protest against rising fuel prices."

"They were angry about the almost 20 percent increase in the price of diesel since the start of the year, as well as the planned fuel tax hike President Emmanuel Macron had recently announced."

"Macron said the tax was necessary to "protect the environment" and "combat climate change", protesters claimed the decision was yet another sign that the "arrogant" and "privileged" president is out of touch with regular folk struggling to make ends meet."

"The intensity of the protests quickly forced the government to make a U-turn and first suspend and later permanently shelve its plans for fuel tax increases. However, the protest movement was not only about fuel prices. It encompassed wider anger and frustration against the political establishment in general and President Macron in particular. As a result, the government's decision to abandon fuel tax hikes failed to calm tensions."

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/op...083636240.html

cheers, Maka

[aussie muscle]

Originally Posted by ozpacman

Same old, same old mate. The 'Peak Oil' alarmists told us we were going to run out 20 years ago.

I'm not too concerned. Just a few more diesel haters having a sook.

Meh!

That's not what 'Peak Oil' means. Peak oil means maximum possible production has been reached. It doesn't mean end of production.

We've found all the 'easy' reserves, so any new wells will be more difficult to extract shale oil and more remote places, making production more expensive (ie less profits for oil companies).

[zipping]

Originally Posted by aussie muscle

That's not what 'Peak Oil' means. Peak oil means maximum possible production has been reached. It doesn't mean end of production.

Actually, you are both right.

Here is Hubbert with his diagrams.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImV1voi41YY

His theory clearly show once "peak" has hit oil runs out quick.

"Peak (Hubbert) oil theory" saw Hubbert extrapolated the theory globally, arguing that worldwide peak oil production would occur in the 1990s. With help from doomsday futurists such as Paul Ehrlich, citing additional work by Hubbert, “peak oil” entered the non-energy sector lexicon as a shorthand for the inevitable exhaustion of the world’s natural resources, most especially fossil fuels.

Essentially Ehrlich believes we will run out of everything

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%...3Ehrlich_wager

[Hardtopxb]

Perhaps as the popularity of Electric and hybrid vehicles become more prevalent it may delay the advent of peak oil. Regardless, are Bio fuels a viable alternative?

[Maka]

Originally Posted by Hardtopxb

Perhaps as the popularity of Electric and hybrid vehicles become more prevalent it may delay the advent of peak oil. Regardless, are Bio fuels a viable alternative?

Yep but the industry is in its infancy & is going through a big r & d phase atm, this industry is also where ethanol fuels come from though its (ethanol) only part of this particular industry afaik.

cheers, Maka

[mick taylor]

There are people saying that there French government is having to hike up the fuel tax because they have to pay for all the emigration that have flooded the Nation, it's costing billion's to look after such free loaders and the French have become 2ed rate citizens in their own Nation, the money has to come from some where to support this invasion, they are saying the media is lying and the government is trying to oppress the French.

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by mick taylor

There are people saying that there French government is having to hike up the fuel tax because they have to pay for all the emigration that have flooded the Nation, it's costing billion's to look after such free loaders and the French have become 2ed rate citizens in their own Nation, the money has to come from some where to support this invasion, they are saying the media is lying and the government is trying to oppress the French.

The French government is known to have the highest tax imposed on its citizens among the European countries and they are not the only ones that have a high influx of immigrants.
Their people hate being taxed heavily on anything and I don't blame them.

France is renown for many riots over the years.


Cheers.

[jpblue1000]

Originally Posted by Officemanager

The French government is known to have the highest tax imposed on its citizens among the European countries and they are not the only ones that have a high influx of immigrants.
Their people hate being taxed heavily on anything and I don't blame them.

France is renown for many riots over the years.


Cheers.

French will Riot because its tuesday, their tax is probably in the top third but far from the highest in europe!
I was actualy in Paris when the champs elysees burned for the first time in this disruption and the general consensus of those around me of the rioters was they were misguided?


JP

[csv8]

Nothing wrong with diesel engines. No more diesel, trains and trucks etc will stop. My diesel Captiva averages 750kms per 65l fuel tank. Diesel will be around for the forseeable future.
Electric vehicles might be okay in cities but in the bush ? forget them.. Lack of range and take to long to ''fill up"

[FG50T]

Things change though. 20 years ago picture the cars you had available to you. A selling point on a car was a CD Player, power steering and A/C. None of what we have today was conceivable to 99% of us back then. I expect everything transport related to be straight electric powered in 20 years. They will work out power stations, solar energy and better battery economy pretty quickly.

[jpd80]

Those loopey french,
first they close down all their coal fired power plants and go nuclear power
and then call out everyone else because they are clean and green...

[roddy1960]

A bit of industry news with the alliance possibly of Ford and VW.. Given VDub's diesel stuff ..will that mean anything globally , even for here in that regard , if the alliance actually happens .

https://www.drive.com.au/motor-news/...liance--120262..

[xeeclipse]

Originally Posted by roddy1960

A bit of industry news with the alliance possibly of Ford and VW.. Given VDub's diesel stuff ..will that mean anything globally , even for here in that regard , if the alliance actually happens .

https://www.drive.com.au/motor-news/...liance--120262..

All these companies are prostitutes Rod. The last thing we need is our Ford's being infected with a Volkswagen STD's.

Globalization is spoiling many products. Go ahead collaborate but don't ruin a cars character and defining engineering cues.

[Sprintey]

Nissan: the Ute

Anyone else remember that one?

[Mainforcepatrol]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

Nissan: the Ute

Anyone else remember that one?

That was the so called Button Car Plan the sharing of car models with different badges in an attempt to reduce the number of manufacturers if i recall.The commodore became a toyota lexcen,camry a holden apollo,falcon ute a nissan ute,nissan pintara a ford corsair and nissan patrol a ford maverick.

[roddy1960]

Originally Posted by xeeclipse

All these companies are prostitutes Rod. The last thing we need is our Ford's being infected with a Volkswagen STD's.

Globalization is spoiling many products. Go ahead collaborate but don't ruin a cars character and defining engineering cues.

Off the primary topic of course but related to diesel via VW . My good friend and neighbour owns a very early 2000's petrol Golf . Had it since new . Very nice car . Remember going to pennant golf (in that Golf) just after they bought it and it was a classy car . Aged pretty well , except for some peeling clearcoat and still runs really well I think . Now to diesel issue that ties in way too often to the VW Group.

Mentioned this in another thread , fast forward to only a couple of years ago . Art teacher at work buys a brand new Tiguan . Problems (mostly electric) quickly but the worst is the diesel engine intermittently shutting down for no reason .
No help from VW and in the end she traded it on a Corolla ..Last straw when it stopped in the middle of an intersection . Skoda had same issues with essentially same powerplant. Sounds like an inherent issue on face value with some VW powerplants .

Ford has done this sort of sharing of stuff before with Mazda, maybe even Jag ..My TX5 Ghia (1986 model) was basically a 626 . This though with VW is a different arrangement I reckon .

[zipping]

The next scare should be "Peak Lithium" or "Peak Copper" (solar panels).

Ah but we love our devices and electric cars.

The "principle" is the same as "Peak Oil" but doesn't fit the political aims of academics and political movements.

[MITCHAY]

I thought Europe was phasing out diesels anyway. VW is going to stop petrol and diesel by 2026 apparently and concentrate on electric.

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

I thought Europe was phasing out diesels anyway. VW is going to stop petrol and diesel by 2026 apparently and concentrate on electric.

That’s not quite right MITCHAY.

VW will “roll out” their last generation combustion engines in 2026. Who knows, those engine may have a life of 5, 10, or more years.

[jpblue1000]

Despite the popularity of Diesels Europe has realised the cost through negative health effects vastly outweighs the benefit to society of diesels, congestion charging, cities banning diesels entering has turned the tide against them. Manufacturers knew this was coming and have been heading in different directions, coupled with the paradigm shift in auto ownership predicted in the western world alternates have never been more appealing.
The writing is on the wall, perhaps we have 200-300-400 10? years of oil left, but the cost is becoming problematic to the point purchasers are wanting alternates, Weather peak oil has happened or not it will and we are seeing the consequences of it now. Plus as above the negative health and prosperity to cities the automobile is now accused off and the other externalities effecting the private use model its certainly interesting times.
JP