Ambitious China

[Mr_G6ET]

In the news lately we see a lot about the South China Sea. I am not sure where the disagreement will 'end' but the movement of bombers 'to suppress US provocations' is a cause of concern.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1197697.shtml

https://www.news.com.au/world/asia/s...05cabd3494a839

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-s...-idUSKCN25B065

[Franco Cozzo]

It's significantly more than a 'disagreement' it's China trying to bully other SE Asian nations and exert power over them in a territorial take over of international waters.

This whole deterioration on the relationship between China and the West has real potential to start a war - 'disagreement' isn't an appropriate term to describe the scenario here.

[Mr_G6ET]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

It's significantly more than a 'disagreement' it's China trying to bully other SE Asian nations and exert power over them in a territorial take over of international waters.

This whole deterioration on the relationship between China and the West has real potential to start a war - 'disagreement' isn't an appropriate term to describe the scenario here.

Fair statement, appropriate.
Relocating bombers to the reef they illegally occupy is further deterioration of the situation in the region.
I recall in another post, you Franco mentioned 'are we heading for war'; there is a steady increase in provocation here.

Good there is a push back but seems like it will get bad and China won't simply walk away

[FTE217]

yep Franco, They have been goading SK/Japan for years, more so the last 3-5yrs.
Abusing territorial water boundaries for reactions.
It stinks, as much as it would cause pain/loss of life etc sooner or later someone needs to make a stand against them.
You wouldn't pick this but USA/Japan/SK aliging to fight on the water vs China.

[nstg8a]

We need war or regime change with China sooner rather than later.

Militarily China still can’t match the west but it’s catching up, fast.
Another 10-15 years, they will be the dominant military super power.

Once China has more than 1-2 modern carriers and can keep them at sea for extended times, that’s when stiff gets ugly.


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[Mr_G6ET]

Originally Posted by nstg8a

We need war or regime change with China sooner rather than later.

Militarily China still can’t match the west but it’s catching up, fast.
Another 10-15 years, they will be the dominant military super power.

Once China has more than 1-2 modern carriers and can keep them at sea for extended times, that’s when stuff gets ugly.

Regime change is off the table Xi has made sure of that.
The alliance of late is a positive but China with Russia would be a concern.

I don't think it will take them 10 - 15, they develop and build 'things' fast.

[nstg8a]

Originally Posted by Mr_G6ET

Regime change is off the table Xi has made sure of that.
The alliance of late is a positive but China with Russia would be a concern.

I don't think it will take them 10 - 15, they develop and build 'things' fast.

It’s taken them more than ten years so far, and as I understand they only have one carrier that’s their own build, and another which is actually an Australian ship converted, that was supposed to be scrapped.
Happy to be corrected.

The other point to remember is that America has been at war almost since it’s inception. There is no more battle hardened (or weary depending on your perspective) major country than them.

You can guarantee whatever information we see in the public domain is a mere fraction of what they are working with, and no doubt they have their own versions of the Chinese weapons.

China does not have the experience. It has numbers and tech.

Time will tell which one matters most.

[Mr_G6ET]

Originally Posted by nstg8a

...

Good point(s), I didn't consider as much as I should the experience. Cant see the Australian built bit but you are correct. 2 on the way also.
A lot of other craft under construction !

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...craft_carriers

[nstg8a]

Originally Posted by Mr_G6ET

Good point(s), I didn't consider as much as I should the experience. Cant see the Australian built bit but you are correct. 2 on the way also.
A lot under construction !

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...craft_carriers

Yeah I could have been wrong on the Aussie connection, I’m sure I read it somewhere but certainly can’t find it now.

[Mr_G6ET]

Originally Posted by nstg8a

Once China has more than 1-2 modern carriers ...

Although carriers would improve their position, China is improving their defence against carriers with hypersonic weapons.
Good read here:
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/bu...obsolete-37637

[nstg8a]

Originally Posted by Mr_G6ET

Although carriers would improve their position, China is improving their defence against carriers with hypersonic weapons.
Good read here:
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/bu...obsolete-37637

Carrier battle groups aren’t about defence, there all offence.

They provide the ability to project their force almost anywhere in the world in sufficient numbers to cause a real problem.

Without them their fighters are reliant on in air refueling or using forward airbases. All of which makes them vulnerable.
That’s one of the reasons they’re building the islands in the South China Sea, it extends their reach.

[Mr_G6ET]

Originally Posted by nstg8a

Carrier battle groups aren’t about defence, there all offence...

I was implying that U.S will go to China, therefore China's land based defences will play a part. Submarines play a big part, imagine all them planes in the air and cant go back to where they took off from
I agree we see only a small portion of what's out there but same goes for the Chinese

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Mr_G6ET

I was implying that U.S will go to China, therefore China's land based defences will play a part. Submarines play a big part, imagine all them planes in the air and cant go back to where they took off from
I agree we see only a small portion of what's out there but same goes for the Chinese

Australia and the Philippines for staging areas for the might of the US military one would assume

[Crazy Dazz]

Originally Posted by nstg8a

We need war or regime change with China sooner rather than later.

Militarily China still can’t match the west but it’s catching up, fast.
Another 10-15 years, they will be the dominant military super power.

Once China has more than 1-2 modern carriers and can keep them at sea for extended times, that’s when stiff gets ugly.

The Chinese literally could not organise a root in a brothel.
They will probably fall into a war, because collectively they are too stupid to avoid it.
And it will be a massacre.
The USA and her allies will sink the entire Chinese "Navy" and bomb their infrastructure back to the stoneage.

[nstg8a]

Originally Posted by Crazy Dazz

The Chinese literally could not organise a root in a brothel.
They will probably fall into a war, because collectively they are too stupid to avoid it.
And it will be a massacre.
The USA and her allies will sink the entire Chinese "Navy" and bomb their infrastructure back to the stoneage.

That’s archaic thinking. To underestimate the Chinese would be a dangerous thing.

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by Crazy Dazz

And it will be a massacre.
The USA and her allies will sink the entire Chinese "Navy" and bomb their infrastructure back to the stoneage.

Yep, they did pretty good back in the 70's with Vietnam didn't they

[xxx000]

Originally Posted by Crazy Dazz

The Chinese literally could not organise a root in a brothel.
They will probably fall into a war, because collectively they are too stupid to avoid it.
And it will be a massacre.
The USA and her allies will sink the entire Chinese "Navy" and bomb their infrastructure back to the stoneage.

The U.S.A. has a shocking track record of not winning wars it goes into.

[Mr_G6ET]

Originally Posted by xxx000

The U.S.A. has a shocking track record of not winning wars it goes into.

Hard to say that they have good track record too

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Mr_G6ET

Hard to say that they have good track record too

1 on 1 there is no fight. The US military spending is 3 times that of China, and has been like that for ever and a day. Compound that over the years, there is no comparison.

[Bossxr8]

It needs to be remembered that China also like to make stuff up. Their capabilities are so far below what they try to talk up. They are all about making themselves look tough, but the realities are far different.

They claimed to have rail guns ready for shipborne testing, but the reality is one shot would melt/distort the barrels, so it's only good for one shot. The same issues the americans have not been able to solve in decades. If the americans haven't been able to solve that problem, who really believes the chinese could? They need someone else to do it first so they can steal the solution.

[b0son]

i'm curious what china's end game is... they have a trade surplus of over USD400bn. seems crazy to risk this. any war with the west will almost certainly decimate most of that.

[Mr_G6ET]

Originally Posted by b0son

i'm curious what china's end game is... they have a trade surplus of over USD400bn ..

I was thinking the same about the South China Sea claim. Oil and Gas will soon enough be in decline, all this for fishing

There are a lot of charts on the Chinese GDP, can't pretend to understand them all but I did see one a while ago where the trends suggested that their GDP will exceed the U.S within 4 - 5 years (accelerated by Covid I suggest)

[nstg8a]

It does seem the Chinese submarine fleet could be the great unknown.
Not much information in the public domain at all.

Submarine warfare is the cat and mouse game of all time really.

It only takes one ballistic missile equipped submarine to get in the right position to potentially end a country.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by nstg8a

It does seem the Chinese submarine fleet could be the great unknown.
Not much information in the public domain at all.

Submarine warfare is the cat and mouse game of all time really.

It only takes one ballistic missile equipped submarine to get in the right position to potentially end a country.

Submarine races aren't exactly the best spectator sport either

[nstg8a]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Submarine races aren't exactly the best spectator sport either

No. Ranks right up there with afl.

[gooseneck]

Don't forget that the chinese agression in the south china sea probably wouldn't have happened unless Russia and NK are willing to back China up. I don't think they would risk such aggression with the US and its allies without their own allies.

In saying that, don't forget also that Russia has satellite-killing robots in space and the US is heavily reliant upon satellites, but that will change once Elon Musk gets the ball rolling and starts deploying his satellite network. That will create redundancy sufficient enough for the US military to use Starlink as a backup.

"DMSP Flight 13 provided critical atmospheric data for flight operations in Operation Allied Force, Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom," Air Force officials wrote in a statement emailed to Space.com. "During its lifetime, DMSP Flight 13 provided thousands of hours of weather imagery to the Air Force Weather Agency and the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center."

I didn't think for one minute that DMSP-F13 could spontaneously explode in space. Even if it was from old age.

https://www.space.com/28713-military...-dmsp-f13.html

Note also that DMSP 5D-3 19 also failed, in a similar reported manner.

https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/kosmos-2491.htm

https://www.digitaltrends.com/news/d...lode-in-space/

What are they using in those things? Lithium iron cobalt cells? hell no.

http://russianspaceweb.com/Cosmos-2499.html

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...sed-to-be-four

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...-we-know-about

When Poblete mentioned “other” activities, she was likely referring to three additional inspector satellites that the Russians launched between 2013 and 2015. These space-based systems, also known as Kosmos-2491, Kosmos-2499, and Kosmos-2504, conducted a number of apparent tests, getting relatively close to various pieces of space debris, before going dormant in 2016. The next year, Russia turned one of them back on and sent it near to a portion of a Chinese weather satellite, which that country had destroyed in a ground-based anti-satellite test in 2007.

https://www.economist.com/science-an...ewing-in-orbit

Then you have kinetic weapons which can do as much damage as an asteroid hitting the earth. We haven't even begun to cover that yet in this post.

https://taskandpurpose.com/gear-tech...t-kep-weaponry

No radiation. Plenty of casualties. Plenty of damage. Thankfully its decades away.

The biggest threats I see coming from Russia/China/NK are ground forces and space based EMP blasts and attacks on US Military communications infrastructure.

So boats with soldiers on them and EMP blasts in space above our heads.

Now if you'll excuse me I have shopping to do and Crackling Pork to cook.

[Mr_G6ET]

Originally Posted by gooseneck

Don't forget

Good 10.41 post, a lot of info there

[ute83]

Here, I'll say it again, the world needs to stop buying their ****e and watch their economy implode.

[Tonz]

Originally Posted by ute83

Here, I'll say it again, the world needs to stop buying their ****e and watch their economy implode.

and how do you propose we do that? stop buying their stuff, when so many businesses rely on China to supply them.
I agree in principle but it would take around 4 years to get manufacturers outside of China to gear up and then we would need to pay more per item...cant see that happening.
options are
buy from India
Vietnam...controlled by China
??
??

[Mr_G6ET]

Originally Posted by Tonz

.. businesses rely on China to supply them.
.. take around 4 years to get manufacturers outside of China to gear up and then we would need to pay more per item...cant see that happening.
options are
buy from India

https://www.business-standard.com/ar...1700061_1.html

Good thing is others are talking about change.
Most would agree, we cannot do without them from a manufacturing perspective but we need to do better at the T+C's