Will cheaper petrol stimulate 6cyl new car sales ?

[CAMS290]

With the advent of cheaper petrol, (i have seen it at $1.17cpl today) and some industry experts suggesting that it could go as low as $1.00cpl, do you think it will make some people consider buying a large 6 cylinder car again like a Falcon or Commodore, or have peoples fundamental buying habits changed for good.

Knowing that new car sales are in a slump in all segments do you think that large 6 cylinder cars will increase or still decrease.

[pertuan]

I think it will continue to fall. People have seen how "expensive" it is to run large cars. Buying habits have changed for the mid-long term I think.

[Jase_Boss]

I think they will plateau out for now, but the big picture says they will drop away again as fuel rises again, it not a case of if but when, but in the mean time some good bargins to be had in the market (new and used)

My theory anyway

[Falcon Coupe]

No option for increase ?

With petrol dropping and and new cars being discounted i think the only way is up.

[Dave_au]

Originally Posted by Falcon Coupe

No option for increase ?

With petrol dropping and and new cars being discounted i think the only way is up.

Disagree, with the current financial uncertainty, and inability for people to find finance, I think it would be highly unlikely to see any sort of recovery of the 6 cylinder large car market.

Simply put, the Australian automotive industry is still not really producing the cars that the Australian public want. I know it's a big call, but our manufactures produce, in the majority, for fleets.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Sales will decline, and petrol price is the least of the cause.

People losing their jobs, US economy gone belly up, shares going up 3% then dropping 4% on several occasions, big car manufacturers are not going well, hard to get credit, water, electricity, tolls all going up, family benefits on the decline etc etc etc

Petrol prices are pretty much irrelevant in the equation.

[Walkinshaw]

$1.04.9 here today

[mik]

i think you got it wrong Dave au, they are making cars that people want but people just can`t afford them due to the rising cost of living, why would you have a one bedroom flat if you could have 4 bedroom house?

[GT0132]

Petrol price is only part of the equation...I think we gonna see a situation over the next 12-18 months where people will continue to hold off making sizable purchases (cars and real estate) until they see what real impact the financial crisis is gonna have on them.

[Wretched]

Originally Posted by mik

i think you got it wrong Dave au, they are making cars that people want but people just can`t afford them due to the rising cost of living, why would you have a one bedroom flat if you could have 4 bedroom house?

Not really, large sedan sales have slumped for the last few years, even during the rise in people's personal wealth.
The problem is the locals have not adjusted to the market, the market wants Hiluxes and Territory style vehicles. Territory is declining in sales due to the age of the car and the introduction of other makes.

[tex]

Yes.

people tend not to be fully considerate of the long term pain, if it's "cheap" for successive months, they'll forget about the cost(pain) when fuel is at 1.70.

Sales stats will reflect falling petrol prices in the coming months imo. The big cars will have a resurgence, and current older model big car owners will be more inclined to update.

At least I hope so!

[guzzis3]

I think I mentioned elsewhere, in my recent quest for another car I have been quite shocked at the bad feelings toward Ford. I really think there has been a long term shift in attitudes in Australia and the traditional family 6 will die.

Look around the streets and you see people want either corolla size FWD's or 4B's. Fleets aren't buying falcons/commodores anymore and there are fewer and fewer large sedans and wagons. Those that are being bought are camry's and euro/prestige things.

I love my fairlane, but people look at me like I'm an idiot when they learn what I drive. No market, no future...

[Fev]

i doubt they'll increase much, if at all maybe a slowing of the decline of sales?.. people have seen what the price of fuel has gotten to and without a doubt it will probably be back up at those prices in a year or 2..

[mr smith]

I think fuel prices dont really play a part in the demise of the aussie sedan. While away over Melb cup weekend, we talked and looked at what everyone we were camped with were driving, no Falcons and no Commodores. Twin cab 4 x 4 utes and Toyota and Subaru wagons were the flavor. Fuel costs were not a factor in nearly all purchases.

[Pinch]

Unfortunately I too think that the Aussie 6 as a main player in the market has had its day. Short term fuel costs decreasing aside, people have changed their buying habits in a pretty profound and entrenched way.

My mother's work used to only buy Falcons as fleet cars, they have recently changed to Camry's. One of many companies doing this. Its not only running costs, but resale too. The low resale of Falcons makes them pretty expensive on a whole vehicle cost scenario.

[4Vman]

I think the massive price roller coaster that's gone on in the past 18 months will make people sit it out a bit longer to regain confidence....

[Redrum]

Economists are predicting 200,000 job losses in Australia within next year. People who lose their jobs or are afraid of losing their jobs do not purchase new cars. I say the market will continue to slide down.

[Fordman1]

No.

IMO the Large RWD Aussie sedan will be dead in 5 years.

In the Falcodore's 'heyday' small car's were small, and medium cars were significantly smaller than the large cars. These days these other classes have moved up a size and the size difrerence is a lot closer.

10 years ago there were no significant medium sized crossover vehicles available (ie: SUV's like Territory, Kluger etc), nor was there a largish small SUV market like RAV4 type vehicles ( you can now get a RAV 4 with a V6 too !).

85% of the Falcodores market are fleet sales - these fleets are now demanding 'green cars' ref: government fleets. Where are sales going to come from now on ?

[Hillbilly F Truck]

Sales will continue to fall, as everone knows it is only a lull in fuel price, and as they say we will eventually run out of petrol, so fuel prices are not going to continue to fall, but as other members have said, fuel price is not the only factor.

[irlewy86]

Recession might be the best thing that ever happened to the Falcon

[FPV GT40]

Originally Posted by CAMS290

With the advent of cheaper petrol, (i have seen it at $1.17cpl today) and some industry experts suggesting that it could go as low as $1.00cpl, do you think it will make some people consider buying a large 6 cylinder car again like a Falcon or Commodore, or have peoples fundamental buying habits changed for good.

Knowing that new car sales are in a slump in all segments do you think that large 6 cylinder cars will increase or still decrease.

Decrease all the way.....people are too scared.....and people have already been brain washed into thinking that petrol is cheap when it costs a $1,20 :

Even $1 is not cheap......considering that more than half of that is taxes petrol should be around the 50-60 cents, if it was the actual cost of the fuel plus 10% gst....

On top of that people have no idea....a 4 cylinder puss box does not use that much less fuel anyway, my GT sits on about 11 liters for 100km of country driving and a 4 cylinder would not do much better and if it does get away with 8 liters, the comfort power and style of the GT is well worth an extra 3 liters of fuel.

Even around town driving normally I get about 12 liters for 100km...cheap driving if you ask me and that is a driving a 290 kw V8, the problem with the 6 is it does not use any less fuel than the V8, I would not personally bother with a 6, would either be a 4 or an 8.....the six seems to be in no-where land

[GT0132]

Originally Posted by FPV GT40

Even around town driving normally I get about 12 liters for 100km...cheap driving if you ask me and that is a driving a 290 kw V8, the problem with the 6 is it does not use any less fuel than the V8, I would not personally bother with a 6, would either be a 4 or an 8.....the six seems to be in no-where land

Hey Michael, do you drive around with 4 spark leads removed ?....Either that or with a feather on the accelerator pedal...I'm lucky to get 15-16l around town in my 290 and no better than 11.5 on a highway trip.

Whats your secret champ?

back on topic....The Aussie 6 has been around for 60 years and will be around in another 40 to make the century

[FPV GT40]

Originally Posted by ozmale42

Hey Michael, do you drive around with 4 spark leads removed ?....Either that or with a feather on the accelerator pedal...I'm lucky to get 15-16l around town in my 290 and no better than 11.5 on a highway trip.

Whats your secret champ?

back on topic....The Aussie 6 has been around for 60 years and will be around in another 40 to make the century

You just made me go outside and check the trip meter....been driving around town for the last few days with climate control on and average this very second is 13.4, I have seen it higher, really depends on the use of the right foot, no dramas getting it up higher if I want some fun, just can not afford the fines (or the points more so)

On the country trip the actual average was below 11 liters (about 10.7), it only went up when I hit Sydney traffic. But there is less traffic out here than where you live, and I do not drive in peak hour at all ever....so that probably makes a difference.

My car seems to be good on fuel compared to others, or may be I just drive like a granny

I recon its all the extra air drag from your sun roof that is using the extra fuel

[Bossxr8]

Any extra sales generated by lower fuel prices will only help cover the loss of sales by the financial crises, so sales will probably stay about the same.

[TUF_302]

I dont think they will change that much really, maybe a few more larger cars will sell, but no astronomical changes

[BOSSGT302]

: Good to see my BF GT BOSS 302 uses the some amount of juice. We buy V8s because we love cars not because its a good family car or economical. 6 cyl cars are people movers and if those people can fit into a medium car they will, for all the above reasons. But if the Falcon dies what will my next GT be? :

[colossus]

Originally Posted by FPV GT40

On top of that people have no idea....a 4 cylinder puss box does not use that much less fuel anyway, my GT sits on about 11 liters for 100km of country driving and a 4 cylinder would not do much better and if it does get away with 8 liters, the comfort power and style of the GT is well worth an extra 3 liters of fuel.

Even around town driving normally I get about 12 liters for 100km...cheap driving if you ask me and that is a driving a 290 kw V8, the problem with the 6 is it does not use any less fuel than the V8, I would not personally bother with a 6, would either be a 4 or an 8.....the six seems to be in no-where land

I think you have wishful thinking? Forget country and highway driving, in the real world my GT gets around 16L/100km in the city cycle. I have owned several 6cyl BA's and they were around 12L/100km. The wifes four cylinder gets 8L/100kms. So based on $1.30 for fuel...

GT = $23.40 per 100kms
6cyl Falc = $15.60 per 100kms
4 cyl = $10.40 per 100kms.

If you drove 500kms a week the GT costs $117 to fill, the 6cyl Falc costs $78 to fill and the 4cyl costs $52 to fill. So I'd say the "4cyl puss box" does use significantly less fuel than a V8.

Though for me that is not a consideration as I dont do many kms in the V8.

In regards to the actual question of this thread I think you have to wait and see if the fuel price stabilises at $1 over several months. I think it will help sales if it stabilises but people arn't stupid and going to rush out just because fuel is $1 for a couple of days.

[geckoGT]

Originally Posted by colossus

I think you have wishful thinking? Forget country and highway driving, in the real world my GT gets around 16L/100km in the city cycle. I have owned several 6cyl BA's and they were around 12L/100km. The wifes four cylinder gets 8L/100kms. So based on $1.30 for fuel...

GT = $23.40 per 100kms
6cyl Falc = $15.60 per 100kms
4 cyl = $10.40 per 100kms.

If you drove 500kms a week the GT costs $117 to fill, the 6cyl Falc costs $78 to fill and the 4cyl costs $52 to fill. So I'd say the "4cyl puss box" does use significantly less fuel than a V8.

Though for me that is not a consideration as I dont do many kms in the V8.

In regards to the actual question of this thread I think you have to wait and see if the fuel price stabilises at $1 over several months. I think it will help sales if it stabilises but people arn't stupid and going to rush out just because fuel is $1 for a couple of days.

I am with you on this one, I find it very hard to believe there is any GT that can average 12L/100km in the city. I am on my 3rd BOSS motor and I have never had one average less than 16L/100km with sensible driving in any form of traffic.

The fuel saving on small cars in city driving (where most people drive) is huge. Our turbo Mini gets an average of 6.9L/100km, our Super Pursuit gets 13.9L/100km, both doing the same type of km's. We had a BMW 120d as a loan car the other day and the worst I saw on the trip meter was 14L/100km whilst accellerating to overtake, the average was 5.7L/100km.

Fuel cost will make a difference but I agree it will only be a short term slowing in the decline of overall sales. The simple fact is the public has become to environmentally aware for a start. Diesels dominate in europe now due to better fuel consumption and lower emmisions, that trend will follow here. Look at the Luxury Car Tax (LCT), the threshold is $57k unless the vehicle has a combined fuel consumption less than 7L/100km, then the threshold is $75k. Watch how fast the like of the Jetta diesel, BMW 320d and 530d etc sell. Most of these people do not give a toss about 0-100 and 0-400m times, they care about the bottom line of sale price, running costs and what you get for your dollar. Considering the upper level cars and the difference in LCT, the diesel actually ends up cheaper in buy price due to less LCT.

From a Ford point of view, when considering what in their line up will appeal to the average market, Focus and Mondeo will soon be their big volume sellers. The Mondeo turbo diesel appears to be their large car (it has more leg room than BF falcon) that has the brightest future.

[alecrain]

I think that people are now scared that petrol price will eventually rise again so they will be reluctant to invest in petrol "guzzling" big aussie sixes (not to mention V8s)

[vztrt]

Will stay the same for the min and then decrease.
Were going into recession and when were out of it fuel will start to rise again.
So unless GM or Ford do something that the customer can see the value in buying a new large car I wouldn't expect miracles.