A big IF !

[Vincenzo]

IF GMH don't get their money to stay open from the Federal Government, closing at the end of the year and IF Ford Australia are true to their word to continue till 2016, do you think their would be enough interest from some former Holden fans coming across to Ford to make Ford think twice about closing Falcon production in 2016.


Cheers vincenzo

[UberKnee]

Whats the chance of Holden shutting down that quickly though. The yanks may have turned their noses up at the VFs styling but GM would have put alot of money and effort behind the export of the new Commodore. I don't see them throwing that away in a hurry.

Holdens situation is just further proof of how hard it is to make a profit manufacturing cars here. The VF is a car with plenty of gadgets that people love and is being exported but the cost of all the R&D has just put Holden further in debt.

[Cuyper]

GM/Holden wont stop building in Australia before Ford and Ford wont still be building cars here in 2016, parts maybe. Cars no. It would take Holden a couple of years to push out 10 years worth of parts for the VF's even if they started today. So they still have plenty of time.

The VF is real and here now, I'm not actually convinced the 2014 Falcon will ever materialise.

[pottery beige]

Holdens go early Ford will go early..

[mik]

I dont think so, even if sales doubled even tripled here , I suspect ford would still struggle to make a worthwhile dollar when all the costs are tallied,
not to mention they really want to implement the global ford policy, I can't see them changing plans.

[Vincenzo]

Oh well, thanks to everyone who responded, it was just a thought.


Cheers Vincenzo

[Resurrection]

Holden will not go this year. I've already seen 2 VF sedans and 1 VF wagon on public roads. There sales will be up so they would be mad to pull the plug now.

[Cuyper]

There's a 3-6 month wait on the SS redline also. I'm sure they aren't selling them in huge numbers but they are hardly going to close the factory while there are months of orders waiting

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Cuyper

There's a 3-6 month wait on the SS redline also. I'm sure they aren't selling them in huge numbers but they are hardly going to close the factory while there are months of orders waiting

The reason there's a wait on Redline is because Holden didn't expect such a strong response,
it is still building out stock reserves across the board, I don't think initial sales are as strong as
Holden expected or needs to sustain its current production level.

Not saying Holden will close immediately but the signs are beginning to manifest that
the Australian business plan is falling apart..

[mik]

Originally Posted by Resurrection

Holden will not go this year. I've already seen 2 VF sedans and 1 VF wagon on public roads. There sales will be up so they would be mad to pull the plug now.

if holden is bleeding from the eyes now in trying to make a dollar with local built cars , how many more cars will they have to(edit) sell/ build to get profitable again ?

[Alan D Segal]

I wonder how many base models they're selling or if everyone who can afford them is just going for the 'halo' Redline (for Holden) and the GTS (for HSV), with the others being ignored because they're not the 'best'.

I've seen one SSV (not sure if redline) and one Clubsport on the road, but I've not a base model yet.

I don't think many private buyers would be saying they really want the base model. Hasn't been happening with the XT falcon.

[danzvtil]

[QUOTE=I don't think many private buyers would be saying they really want the base model. Hasn't been happening with the XT falcon.[/QUOTE]

technically ford wont sell the retail buyer an XT. My dealer says they are built to order only for fleets/ govt.
Quote an XT today and it nudges 40k. Dealers will only have XRs and Gs as demos cheaper.

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by Resurrection

Holden will not go this year. I've already seen 2 VF sedans and 1 VF wagon on public roads. There sales will be up so they would be mad to pull the plug now.

If History is anything to go by Holden wont sell more units then last year and next year will be worse. Unless something dramatically happens...like no FBT on Aussie cars.

[Wolfinsheepsclothing]

the new vf seems to be selling well in Hamilton NZ ,was talking to a local holden dealer salesman(Ebbett motors) and they selling plenty and have pre sold 16 hsv gts already, i have also seen quite a few vf commy's on the road, so seem's they're selling well in my area, i'll give them at least another 5 years

[Rodge]

Originally Posted by taupiriboy

the new vf seems to be selling well in Hamilton NZ ,was talking to a local holden dealer salesman(Ebbett motors) and they selling plenty and have pre sold 16 hsv gts already, i have also seen quite a few vf commy's on the road, so seem's they're selling well in my area, i'll give them at least another 5 years

I would take anything Ebbett's say with a grain of salt mate, they're just talking up their own book. 16 Pre-sales on GTS's @ $122,990 Kiwi plus on-roads, you can definitly put me in the "Doubting Thomas" camp on that claim.
There can't be that many stupid bogan farmers in the whole of the Waikato

OTOH SSV Redline looks pretty good value with good tech kit for ~ $75,000 Kiwi and it wouldn't surpise me if they sold like hot cakes.

[munners]

But didn't Mike Deveraux come out and say they lose money on every locally made car and that's why the labour price had to come down? What they are saying seems to be conflicting with what they are doing in some ways.

Munners

[GQ_Smooth]

Holden will adjust their cost structure one way or another. Lower wages and/or less staff. I for one will be sorry to see them go (eventually). People just aren't buying enough of their products.

[Brazen]

http://www.carpoint.com.au/news/2013...-success-37734

Holden is struggling to keep up with unprecedented customer demand for its hottest ever Commodore, the SS V Redline, as waiting lists for some variants stretch out to 2014.

Despite commanding a $6000 premium over the 270kW 6.0-litre V8-powered Commodore SS V, the $51,490 Redline sedan is expected to account for almost one in two SS sales, says GM Holden's Marketing Manager for Large Cars and SUVs, Kristian Aquilina.

"More than 50 per cent of SS V sales [will be Redline]" says Aquilina, who revealed the pre-order bank for Holden dealers is so great that if you ordered a sedan today, "You'd struggle to get it in before the end of the year".

Holden's large vehicle marketing chief hinted that dealers are "able to do things with a solid order that can help fast track it, but we're talking a three month wait on average".

The new Redline model takes the same 270kW/530Nm V8 engine as the SS V, but is equipped with larger 355mm Brembo front brakes, split width tyres (wider at the rear) shod to forged 19-inch alloy wheels, track-tuned FE3 suspension, revised steering, and a new competition mode with launch control for manual models.

Redline variants also add a range of premium comfort features, plus a colour head-up display, and sedan models get a nine-speaker Bose premium stereo and sunroof.

Aquilina told motoring.com.au that "sedans are a bit tight, but certainly a ute or a wagon that's easier to do that".

"We've got this initial bubble and people have their very specific requests and that's what we're trying to meet at the moment," he says.

While the Redline is the best-steering Commodore Holden has ever made (stay tuned for our track test, or check out our road test) Aquilina says interest is high because the value equation has improved. Sales of the SS V now account for 80 per cent of all SS sales, he revealed.

"In the past for VE it was smaller but coming to VF the vast majority of SS V8 sales [are SS V]. Initially they're the numbers we're selling. It's massive. It's got a lot to do with [pricing for SS V].

"We sort of made it unthinkable not to get the SS V. Because if you come in on the SS, for three and half grand, you're getting a lot of kit to go up to the SS V. And then at that point you're thinking, 'Hmm, maybe a Redline is within reach...' It is seeming to work for us," he says, adding that more than half of those SS V customers will upgrade to the Redline.

"Typically we would have forecast a richer mix at the start, but we're actually outperforming that to the point now that we have to find a way to build more cars to meet the demand. So it's a good problem to have."

As the Commodore SS V and track-ready SS V Redline models fly out of Holden forecourts faster than they can be replenished by the factory, the new model hasn't caused any friction with HSV (Holden Special Vehicles) claims Aquilina, and won't eat into HSV sales.

"If you were to look at [Redline] and strip things back, I can see how people can come up with the view that there's crossover [with HSV] but I think in the consumers mind they see it as a very different opportunity to own an HSV."

"HSV buyers want an HSV. We're giving our loyal Holden buyers something special we haven't been able to give them before," says Aquilina.

Formerly GM Holden's Manager for Export Operations, Aquilina explains the tyre-frying Redline model was made possible due to the US-bound Chevrolet SS model.

"We've been able to do Redline because we've got this great program that we're doing to the US, that has enabled us to get broader volume on a range of hardware that we can then share across borders.

"So the Chevy SS program has been a big enabler for us to offer something different to our consumers that we haven’t been able to do before. It's probably something that HSV was typically known for that we've adopted, but they've moved the bar up as well, and their customers are responding to that."

"Sporty versions of our mainstream cars is something we continue to look at. It's part of the Holden DNA to offer that in our range," says Aquilina.

Holden Commodore SS V Redline pricing (not including on-road costs)
SS V Redline Sedan (manual) $51,490
SS V Redline Sedan (auto) $53,690
SS V Redline Sportwagon (auto) $55,690
SS V Redline Ute (manual) $48,990
SS V Redline Ute (auto) $50,690

[Gadgetman]

Both Holden and Ford should be commended on how they have lasted this long producing cars in australia when no other make would even consider it.

[nstg8a]

Originally Posted by Gadgetman

Both Holden and Ford should be commended on how they have lasted this long producing cars in australia when no other make would even consider it.

And Toyota.... Or doesn't the worlds biggest car manufacturer count?

[janddbone]

If they are not doing everything possible, to build more of there most profitable models because they are sell outs, then they are nuts.

[Cuyper]

I still think the main reason for a drop in sale on the base models is poor fuel economy though. I'm not in the market for a large car but if I was I would only be interested if the running costs were less. It would have to do sub 8l/100 combined, a VF commodore could do it with a diesel. I really think they are misjudging the importance of week to week running costs. You can see why over the years people are buying the V8's or nothing, if you want it for an out and out performance car then you probably don't care if it burns a combined 15l/100 but it just doesn't cut it for a daily driven car. Hopefully they are in for another 5 years and can bring a diesel to the VF II, then they might see a turn around in large car sales. Right now you can buy any tank of a truck you want and get far better fuel economy than a sedan and that's not correct.

[mik]

Originally Posted by Cuyper

I still think the main reason for a drop in sale on the base models is poor fuel economy though. I'm not in the market for a large car but if I was I would only be interested if the running costs were less. It would have to do sub 8l/100 combined, a VF commodore could do it with a diesel. I really think they are misjudging the importance of week to week running costs. You can see why over the years people are buying the V8's or nothing, if you want it for an out and out performance car then you probably don't care if it burns a combined 15l/100 but it just doesn't cut it for a daily driven car. Hopefully they are in for another 5 years and can bring a diesel to the VF II, then they might see a turn around in large car sales. Right now you can buy any tank of a truck you want and get far better fuel economy than a sedan and that's not correct.

i agree, fuel economy is a big part of car sales these days, purchase price too, to look in car parks there are so many micro/small cars and medium size suvs its not funny, and the lines are blurring somewhat between suv and hatch back/sedans, mazda seems to be pushing in this direction more than anyone, once upon a time 6's and 8's where the norm, these days they are becoming the exception, i dunno about the statement "far better in fuel consumption in trucks compared to big sedans" that might be stretching it a bit dont you think ??

[Cuyper]

I dont think its a stretch, are there any sedan sized/weighted diesel suv's on the market today which dont return a combined 8l/100?. One of my wifes friends has one of those mitsubishi asx's (manual) and it cruises in the 4s. Something like that is no where near as slippery as the VF... Seems such a waste of a good body not having a decent motor. I mean probably the ranger even gets better economy than the vf v6.

[Bossxr8]

The Redline model goes on sale 2 months after the rest of the range, it's no wonder they have built up an order book. But this is Holden I guess, don't let the truth get in the way of a good story.

From all accounts sales aren't that great. Not the massive surge they were expecting. I'd imagine within 6 months sales will be back to nothing.

[Brazen]

Some VF variants not being delivered till 2014. Sales are expected around the 3000 mark this month with about 1400 being V8.

[AndyXR6T]

All these "what if" threads are getting very annoying and repetitive.

[Vincenzo]

Originally Posted by AndyXR6T

All these "what if" threads are getting very annoying and repetitive.

Sorry you think that way. I asked the question because at the time of Fords announcement I did not know of what problems GMH were having. My thought processes are not what they used to be and a little slow these days. In response #6 I thought I had put it to bed. I will now crawl back under the rock from which I came.

[AndyXR6T]

Originally Posted by Vincenzo

Sorry you think that way. I asked the question because at the time of Fords announcement I did not know of what problems GMH were having. My thought processes are not what they used to be and a little slow these days. In response #6 I thought I had put it to bed. I will now crawl back under the rock from which I came.

I don't mean any disrespect and I value every individuals opinion (especially as I'm very opinionated at times) but there are multiple threads discussing the whole falcon demise and holdens troubles so surely there isn't a need for another one

[Danny]

Originally Posted by AndyXR6T

All these "what if" threads are getting very annoying and repetitive.

Well, that brought nothing at all to the thread. You still wasted your 2 minutes on replying...

Vincenzo, unfortunately, I reckon the cold hard facts are mirrored by Pottery Beige's words. If Holden goes. Ford will be able to pull out the very next day. It's a very sorry state for Aussie cars.