How much longer will cars as we currently know them exist?

[Ford17]

We as consumers, and car manufacturers more so, have been lucky in that everything now is essentially the same as it has been for many decades - being vehicles run on petrol, use oil and have internal combustion engines; plus we are allowed to drive them ourselves.

Something like Tesla though has the ability to change everything as we know it; and if their technology is improved, and eventually gets filtered down to other manufacturers cheaply, then very fast & efficient cars will become readily available.

If so, it will also probably reduce what we currently have to antique status very quickly.

With technology changing quite rapidly, could it be foreseeable a Falcon sitting in a shed in 20 or 30 years' time might be something of an antiquated museum piece?

[Joe5619]

When did they first hybrid hit the roads?? Early 00's (??) & we still aren't even close to 50% of all cars being hybrid, so I'd say we are many many decades away from combustion engines being obsolete.

[Ford17]

Maybe; but I didn't think the Tesla idea had much legs in the beginning, and am sure I was not alone in thinking that.

Just recently Porsche and Aston Martin and a few others have announced they're developing their own Tesla rivals.

Although high end cars, their technology almost always filters down over the years.
They (Wheels IIRC) used to say what you see in an S-Class Mercedes is what the average car will have in 20 years time.

[Express]

Originally Posted by Ford17

With technology changing quite rapidly, could it be foreseeable a Falcon sitting in a shed in 20 or 30 years' time might be something of an antiquated museum piece?

I do think after what has been a slow start these new types of technology are now starting to gain momentum as manufacturers are now approaching them as a serious alternative and not just Falcon but all today’s vehicles will definitely be antiquated in 20 years.

[mechanic]

What has changed dramatically that I've noticed is we're now seeing very very few sedans towing vans or camper trailers.
It seems the dual cab utes are now the preferred towing and travel option and cars for around town are 4 cyl FWD smaller vehicles.
The RWD 6 looks to be less in demand.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of small hybrids for shorter runs and 4 cyl turbo diesels for longer trips and towing. There's a lot less Land Cruisers and Patrols on the road and in van parks and camping grounds.

[Stefan]

Originally Posted by mechanic

The RWD 6 looks to be less in demand.

Not sure you knew, but Falcon production will stop this year. I hate being the bearer of bad news

[mechanic]

Originally Posted by Stefan

Not sure you knew, but Falcon production will stop this year. I hate being the bearer of bad news

Yep I was aware of Fords closure.

[BFGasUte]

Originally Posted by mechanic

What has changed dramatically that I've noticed is we're now seeing very very few sedans towing vans or camper trailers.
It seems the dual cab utes are now the preferred towing and travel option and cars for around town are 4 cyl FWD smaller vehicles.
The RWD 6 looks to be less in demand.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of small hybrids for shorter runs and 4 cyl turbo diesels for longer trips and towing. There's a lot less Land Cruisers and Patrols on the road and in van parks and camping grounds.

Hello,

I think the market has moved in both directions. Compared to a few decades ago, a cheap small new car is cheaper and a large 4WD costs more. The ride, handling and performance of what used to be commercials now rival Cars, and everyone wants a 4WD to be an outdoor hero. Look at the number of high end 4 X's in wrecking yards from stupid driving mistakes.

[Beastie]

Originally Posted by mechanic

What has changed dramatically that I've noticed is we're now seeing very very few sedans towing vans or camper trailers.
It seems the dual cab utes are now the preferred towing and travel option and cars for around town are 4 cyl FWD smaller vehicles.
The RWD 6 looks to be less in demand.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of small hybrids for shorter runs and 4 cyl turbo diesels for longer trips and towing. There's a lot less Land Cruisers and Patrols on the road and in van parks and camping grounds.

You raise a good point (for me anyway). I'm currently looking for a daily to tow my boat and have room to store stuff in the back, so my focus is on finding a falcon wagon. Way down the track when the hybrids gain even more momentum as they become cheaper, I wonder what will be available for people who want to tow heavier trailers / boats / caravans etc....

[Express]

Originally Posted by The Beast

I wonder what will be available for people who want to tow heavier trailers / boats / caravans etc....

My understanding is that electric motors are very good at producing torque.

I'd think when the manufacturers can over come charging and battery life issues then motors capable of towing large capacities would be easy science.

[mik]

Originally Posted by Express

My understanding is that electric motors are very good at producing torque.

I'd think when the manufacturers can over come charging and battery life issues then motors capable of towing large capacities would be easy science.

indeed battery tech is the problem
you hear lots of people say that electric motors make good torque, and they do make extra good torque in trains when you can have a diesel motor supplying them with masses amounts of energy that go for miles and miles, the problem is the more power you use the greater the supply of juice is needed , and high performance heats up the batteries,
people think the tesla is just a simple car with an electric motor thats uncomplicated,
but the huge heavy battery set needs a cooling system , even the electric motors have coolant running through them, theres no getting around the fact the car is a tank and still a complex bit of kit, and costly.
my guess is simpler less costly run about cars like the leaf will become more popular over time, the prius also, by the same token the internal combustion engine is very versatile and imo will be around for a long time to come, especially while fuel is affordable .

[Sabantien]

I reckon we're definitely a long way from hybrid/electric cars being dominant in Australia simply because of the distances travelled.
Mind you, if you never leave the city, it's not a bad deal, so long as you have somewhere to park and charge.
That's the other killer. Electricity. Prices are already skyrocketing, and if we were to build the infrastructure to handle a large percentage of them, it's going to get even more expensive. If you own your own house and have solar panels, you might be on a good thing, otherwise they're not terribly practical.

I think what's going to change is not the engine, but other things. Self driving cars are still being tested, and that technology is making its way into cars people are driving now. Self parking, lane assist, adaptive cruise control. The only thing missing is the GPS directing the steering wheel.

[BFGasUte]

Hello,

What about 3rd world countries ? There are many places that still use 50's tech stuff. Cost and repair problems will stop this. Old Cars with band aid fixes are common in some area's, and it will take time to change. If you drive across the Simpson or Sahara there will be few recharging stations. Because of the shape that Cars are for aerodynamic reasons, more power to run the Air or heater in cold climates. Still many problems to fix before our Cars end up in a Museum.

[Boosted8]

I personally can't wait until Electrical Vehicles become the norm.

Already battery technology is improving at a staggering rate. Imagine what would be possible if the oil companies didn't bury all the truly great technologies.

I know a guy that builds battery powered bicycles. He is working on one right now that has a range >100km and can easily travel at a constant speed of 60km/h (if you're a dare devil). He is also working on a charging unit that will be able to charge the cells in less than 3 hours - the cells are also light-weight so you could theoretically carry a backup cell that could double your range any way. The dude is a wiz and most of the info he tells me just flies right over my head but basically he recycles old laptop batteries for the cells and has adapted microwave oven transformers (among other things) for the charging units. Most of the equipment he uses is salvaged stuff that would otherwise end up in landfill.

If some random dude can do this in his garage, I think that says a lot.

[Beastie]

Originally Posted by Boosted8

I personally can't wait until Electrical Vehicles become the norm.

Already battery technology is improving at a staggering rate. Imagine what would be possible if the oil companies didn't bury all the truly great technologies.

I know a guy that builds battery powered bicycles. He is working on one right now that has a range >100km and can easily travel at a constant speed of 60km/h (if you're a dare devil). He is also working on a charging unit that will be able to charge the cells in less than 3 hours - the cells are also light-weight so you could theoretically carry a backup cell that could double your range any way. The dude is a wiz and most of the info he tells me just flies right over my head but basically he recycles old laptop batteries for the cells and has adapted microwave oven transformers (among other things) for the charging units. Most of the equipment he uses is salvaged stuff that would otherwise end up in landfill.

If some random dude can do this in his garage, I think that says a lot.

Isn't that how Steve Jobs started? Built a Mac in his garage with his mate!

[SYZ]

In 1973, American Motors (AMC) CEO Roy D. Chapin was convinced that "the rotary engine will play an important role as a powerplant for cars and trucks of the future...".

Yeah, well... In 2012, Mazda ended production of their ****el rotary engine after it failed to meet the improved Euro 5 emission standards, leaving no automotive company selling a ****el-powered vehicle.

Which illustrates how current predictions can turn into future dead ends. And I recall the buzz in the Aussie car industry when the twin-****el RX7 hit the roads in the late 70s. Even with a 0-100 time of around 10 seconds.

[Trump]

A paradigm shift in motoring won't happen until the following happens:

- Batteries are able to hold enough charge to rival diesel engines for mileage.
- Said batteries are manufactured with no negative impact on the environment.

[EB#]

Originally Posted by Loud_Noises

A paradigm shift in motoring won't happen until the following happens:

- Batteries are able to hold enough charge to rival diesel engines for mileage.
- Said batteries are manufactured with no negative impact on the environment.

and.....

- The oil conglomerates and their puppet governments figure out some other way to wield power and print money

[mike_nofx]

Maybe cars will go the way of the horse, no longer a mode of transport but a vehicle driven only for pleasure or hobby.

About battery powered cars though, biggest concern people seem to have is the range. Why not have swap-n-go batteries at service stations. Pull up, swap out half a dozen batteries for charged ones, pay a fee and continue driving.

[CoupeKing]

China have been hoarding Lithium for the last decade.

[The Nunn]

There are a couple of things people overlook,

1/ The world has just entered a (Global Warming Agreement) phase that is going to make it socially unacceptable to pollute the air with the use of internal combustion engines

2/ Technology has now reached the point were electric cars are actually viable

3/ The oil giants have had the consumer by the gonnads for decades and the only way to prise the control away from them is when they are vulnerable, That time is now ( due to the political infighting which has caused the oil price debacle)

There will be a lot of pain in the process but I think that the day of the internal combustion engine is over and within 10 yrs we will all be using electric cars charged by solar and driving our "dirty" toys on the weekend when we have saved up enough to purchase some fuel!

[Ben73]

Originally Posted by The Nunn

There are a couple of things people overlook,

1/ The world has just entered a (Global Warming Agreement) phase that is going to make it socially unacceptable to pollute the air with the use of internal combustion engines

2/ Technology has now reached the point were electric cars are actually viable

3/ The oil giants have had the consumer by the gonnads for decades and the only way to prise the control away from them is when they are vulnerable, That time is now ( due to the political infighting which has caused the oil price debacle)

There will be a lot of pain in the process but I think that the day of the internal combustion engine is over and within 10 yrs we will all be using electric cars charged by solar and driving our "dirty" toys on the weekend when we have saved up enough to purchase some fuel!

What about ships, trains and planes. I don't think these vehicles will be usuing full electric power within 10 years.
Sure driving around town in a car it's viable, but not only cars have engines.

[Sabantien]

Originally Posted by The Nunn

There are a couple of things people overlook,

1/ The world has just entered a (Global Warming Agreement) phase that is going to make it socially unacceptable to pollute the air with the use of internal combustion engines

In Australia we produce electricity by burning coal or gas. The current government is doing everything it can to neuter development of solar/wind, etc in the country.

So when we fill up with electricity, we're still polluting the air. The upside is there's less direct air pollution in the cities, but there's still pollution.

The infrastructure needed for electric cars will take a long time to develop and become mainstream. When new housing developments are installing charging points for cars then I think we'll be on the cusp. Right now I couldn't have an electric car because I live in a unit and park on the street. As we move into more and more high density housing, less people will have carparks.

[BFGasUte]

Originally Posted by Sabantien

In Australia we produce electricity by burning coal or gas. The current government is doing everything it can to neuter development of solar/wind, etc in the country.

So when we fill up with electricity, we're still polluting the air. The upside is there's less direct air pollution in the cities, but there's still pollution.

The infrastructure needed for electric cars will take a long time to develop and become mainstream. When new housing developments are installing charging points for cars then I think we'll be on the cusp. Right now I couldn't have an electric car because I live in a unit and park on the street. As we move into more and more high density housing, less people will have carparks.

Hello,

There is plenty of Hydro power, Solar and Wind power. Nothing to stop street side recharging stations either. If you can pay for Parking and Tolls with a Phone or Credit Card, you are ready.

[SYZ]

Originally Posted by BFGasUte

There is plenty of Hydro power [...]

Unfortunately for the Taswegians, this is not the case at the moment. Due to record low rainfalls, the state is literally running out of (hydro) electricity, and utilising diesel generators to supplement supplies. This has been caused mainly by the disruption to the Basslink cable. Loy Yang currently (pun?) supplies 40% of Tassie's electricity—the very same power station the tree-huggers wanna shut down.

This scenario illustrates the simple fact that we have to rely on coal-fired power for at least the foreseeable future. I live within cooee of a wind "farm" and the number of days the turbines aren't rotating is noteworthy. The other issue of course is how do we get the wind-generated electricity from the country to the city—to charge our battery-driven cars?

[roddy1960]

Originally Posted by Sabantien

In Australia we produce electricity by burning coal or gas. The current government is doing everything it can to neuter development of solar/wind, etc in the country.

So when we fill up with electricity, we're still polluting the air. The upside is there's less direct air pollution in the cities, but there's still pollution.

The infrastructure needed for electric cars will take a long time to develop and become mainstream. When new housing developments are installing charging points for cars then I think we'll be on the cusp. Right now I couldn't have an electric car because I live in a unit and park on the street. As we move into more and more high density housing, less people will have carparks.

G'day ..Did anyone see some American designed electric sports car (forgot the name) with phenomenal acceleration , top speed and has a half decent range...apparently...but will be some time yet and very expensive to buy..So was computers , calculators , mobile phones..and virtually everything for that matter..Sad but true and as is said "Necessity is the mother of invention" and by 2050 if not sooner I bet efficient electric cars will be it..That said ..I wonder what will happen when the last refinery switches off it's plant and there are cars that won't be able to be driven ever again..Now that's the real tragedy.. What happens with aircraft , trains , earthmoving equipment , ships........Nuclear power or something ..Get your head around that...It's pretty scary and unless the can figure out another fuel that combustion engines can run on it's inevitable...INVENT QUICK YOU GUYS.. Cheers Rod..

[jpblue1000]

The move to electric 'fuel' or other propulsion method in the private automobile is a paradigm shift in motoring. The tool remains largely the same, wheels, suspension, chassis, shell seats and lights et al. While private transport is available and useful the 'car' will remain an evolution of itself as it has for our lives. Not until something better comes along, we are legislated of the road due to the many many social, political and environmental issues the car has or our cities become so overcrowded cars become less useful will we se a change aludes to by the original poster.
JP

[The Nunn]

I work in the oil and gas industry, LNG bunkering of ships will be the norm within 10 yrs, I have seen the ships they are building right now, LNG is the preferred fuel already, truck fleets in Europe are solely LNG, coal fired power stations are being retrofitted to burn natural gas, Global warming and air pollution is something that will only be curbed by a concerted effort by every consumer on this planet.
My contribution is buying an XR6T Sprint,it uses less fuel than the eight when cruising :-)

[FalconXV]

I think it's only a matter of time before this gets off the ground

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65X25g5Lyuk

(pun intended).....(I'll show myself out)...

[mik]

i dont think it will happen like that Roddy, i reckon it will come down to the price of fuel that will cause a slow slow change in motive power , and as long as we can grow stuff or make rubbish that decomposes .......... both things that humans are very good at , we will always have something to put in the tank, should oil start to become scarce and the price go up to an unpalatable level , then maybe there may be a mass exodus , but while you can still buy a cheap suv tank that will do 1000 k`s to tank or small car for sub 15k that will do 50 mpg and do similar mileage, very few are going to be in a hurry to buy an EV i think .