Doomsday Prediction !!!!!! 2012

[troppo]

Originally Posted by Rodp

The moon currently has the largest discovered crater in the solar system and does have scientists baffled. From memory it's ~2250km wide and ~13km deep and near the south (?) polar region of the moon. Appeared to be a low and slow glancing blow.

Is it a round crater or more like a gouge? You'd expect a low and slow glancing blow would leave a big gouge through the soft crust.

All of the Earth craters fit a model regarding the ratio of crater width:penetration depth. On the moon, the smaller craters fit the model perfectly but the larger ones are way too shallow for their width.

[troppo]

Originally Posted by GasOLane

Lets see if I get this right... the Mayans are able to predict the end of the world (Did they have their own Uri Geller?) but were'nt able to predict the end of their own culture?.

No, the Mayans didn't predict anything except what the date would be in the future, an endeavour in which they were uncannily accurate. They also have references to dates beyond 2012 by adding a distance date from the end of the 13th B'ak'tun.

For example, on the Tablet of Inscriptions from Palenque the following Long Count date was found: 9.8.9.13.0 8 Ahau 13 Pop (24 March 603 Gregorian) with a distance date of 10.11.10.5.8. The resulting date is given as 1.0.0.0.0.8 5 Lamat 1 Mol,[11] or 21 October 4772 – almost 3,000 years into the future. The king Pacal of Palenque predicted that on this date the eightieth Calendar Round anniversary of his accession will be celebrated, suggesting he did not believe the world would end in 2012.

I guess King Pacal would be dissapointed he's already been forgotten...

Edit:2nd quote from Wiki

[ELtim]

Eh. Gotta die sometime.

[Rodp]

Originally Posted by troppo

Is it a round crater or more like a gouge? You'd expect a low and slow glancing blow would leave a big gouge through the soft crust.

All of the Earth craters fit a model regarding the ratio of crater width:penetration depth. On the moon, the smaller craters fit the model perfectly but the larger ones are way too shallow for their width.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Pole-Aitken_Basin

While I hate using wikipedia for things like that, it's a reasonable synopsis from what I remember. As you stated, difficult to determine impact craters on the moon due to many varying reasons, wiki seems to comment that it was also a low velocity low angle (so probably glancing) impact.

[Rodp]

Originally Posted by hypnodoc

I am an academic, and have based my dust particle-golf ball scenario on common sense...

Ok, I'm interested. I'd love to hear your theory on this crater.. The asteroid was 1/10th the size of the asteroid you propose could hit the Earth and do very little based on your dust particle-golf ball scenario.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicxulub_Crater

An asteroid 10 times the size wouldn't do 10 times the damage, it would be exponential.

[Rodp]

Originally Posted by GasOLane

Lets see if I get this right... the Mayans are able to predict the end of the world (Did they have their own Uri Geller?) but were'nt able to predict the end of their own culture?.

Well, Uri Geller would probably be one of the best candidates of biggest fraud to walk the face of the Earth.. so you could well be right. :P

Poor guy couldn't bend a Johnny Carson spoon. :(

[troppo]

Originally Posted by Rodp

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Pole-Aitken_Basin

While I hate using wikipedia for things like that, it's a reasonable synopsis from what I remember. As you stated, difficult to determine impact craters on the moon due to many varying reasons, wiki seems to comment that it was also a low velocity low angle (so probably glancing) impact.

So it's more of a gouge type crater from reading that, with most of the ejecta at one end. Makes you wonder though, if it was a slow moving body and the gravity of the sun can hold the gas giants in orbit, where did the impactor go?

That other crater you linked is a good example of a crater that conforms to the (roughly) 10:1 width:depth ratio common to all Earth craters @ 180km wide x 1.4km deep. The big one on the moon @ 2500km wide x 13km deep is not even close to the ballpark 200+km depth it should be. Some parts of the crust on the moon are less than 10km thick but no matter where or how big the impact craters are on the moon, none penetrate through to the mantle as would be expected. The moon appears to have survived impacts that would tear the Earth apart.

Just one of the reasons the moon fascinates me. I better stop there, I can waffle on about the oddities of the moon for ages. Actually, I'm stunned that it's been 40 years since man first went there and we know so little about how and why it's there, but we haven't bothered going back to answer the simplest questions like does it have a molten mantle under the crust. I'd love to know what's under there absorbing those big impacts.

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by troppo

Makes you wonder though, if it was a slow moving body and the gravity of the sun can hold the gas giants in orbit, where did the impactor go?

Umm, your standing on it?

[troppo]

Originally Posted by GasOLane

Umm, your standing on it?

So did the Earth and moon collide then go back to respective orbits? Or are you referrring to the captured moon theory?

[hypnodoc]

Originally Posted by GasOLane

And you admit this on a public forum?

What a brave man!

I know. I backed away from the uselessness of Academia and went into the real world many years ago. Got sick of hypnotheticals and statistics. As Mark Twain said. Three types of lies.
1. Lies
2. Damn Lies
3. and Statistics :evil3:

More money in the real world to. : :

[InfernoSR]

Originally Posted by Nevermind

All I know is alot of people are going to feel pretty dumb come new years eve 2012.

Only if i'm ****ed and soil myself...

[Daymoe]

Nostradamus sees NIBURU, The Comet Planet near passing Earth (or Impact) sometime AFTER the year "1999 and seven months" and causing great destruction that triggers W.W.III.

Well, we're in for another World War soon anyway, its been like over 60 years since the last?

^^ Joke, i'm no war fan. (covering my ***)

About something colliding with earth, one of my universe books mum got me says that an asteroid 70 meters in diameter colliding with earth will have the same effect of all the nuclear weapons in the world all detonating in one place at the same time. Thats just 70 meters, imagine something 100km wide?

Anyway, i'm not sure i believe this, wouldn't have someone found something yet which they can back up with evidence, if this is true, i know what i'm doing on new years day 2009, raiding Harvey Norman.

[Rodp]

Originally Posted by 90sFTW

Anyway, i'm not sure i believe this, wouldn't have someone found something yet which they can back up with evidence, if this is true, i know what i'm doing on new years day 2009, raiding Harvey Norman.

You want to spend the last 2 years of civilisation fending Bubba off with a shiv?

[Daymoe]

Originally Posted by Rodp

You want to spend the last 2 years of civilisation fending Bubba off with a shiv?

Whoops, i meant 2012 hehe.

No bubba with a shiv for me, if i did that in 2009 thats when i finish year 12 :S

[andrewts]

Originally Posted by 90sFTW

Whoops, i meant 2012 hehe.

No bubba with a shiv for me, if i did that in 2009 thats when i finish year 12 :S

HEY you're from the nineties! High-five!:

[FlipXW]

Originally Posted by BLUEPRINT

Only if i'm ****ed and soil myself...

I have seen that before!! . It wasn't me :P.

[Falc'man]

When one dies, that is his doomsday. And no one knows the timing of their own end let alone the world's end.

[troppo]

Originally Posted by 90sFTW

About something colliding with earth, one of my universe books mum got me says that an asteroid 70 meters in diameter colliding with earth will have the same effect of all the nuclear weapons in the world all detonating in one place at the same time. Thats just 70 meters, imagine something 100km wide?

Energy is what you are talking about when comparing impacts to weapons and size is just one of the variables. Speed is the other main factor, with density and angle of impact also having an effect.

Just to clarify my last post, the commonly accepted theory is that the moon itself was formed after a body smaller than the moon collided with Earth, ripping out a huge chunk of crust and spewing the molten mantle beneath into space. The impacting body broke up in the collision and the debris in space eventually coalesced into a single body now known as the moon. If that is true, then the moon didn't form until after the collision so wouldn't be bearing any scars from the collision. The point is that if the theory is true, the Earth is not responsible for the crater on the moon, that could not have happened until after it coalesced.

Another theory is that the moon was captured by the Earth's gravity after being slowed enough by an impact with the Earth. The theory requires a glancing blow only as a direct hit would destroy both bodies. If this theory is accurate, the crater on the moon could well be the preserved scar from it. Any evidence here on Earth would be long gone through erosion by now though.

[Danny]

I haven't posted here for some time now, but this whole theory stirred a respose from me. Now when I was 10 - 15 years old, I was once scared of the world's end and these theories, but these days I laugh at crap like this. It's an insult to intelligence.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWkEYxBGqN8

Also (I'm no astronomer, but....), If the Orbit of this Planet Nibiru was 3600 years long, and it's the size of Jupiter, then I find it absolutely ridiculous that these idiots say that it will only become visible within two years of its passing.... A planet that size and of that long an orbit would be approaching, and slowly enlargening in the skies for tens, maybe hundreds of years wouldn't it? A simple anomalie that these Doomspeakers have overlooked...

[xtwagon]

So does that mean that global warming means diddly squat and I can get the dirtiest old polluting v8 and drive it like hell cause we are all going to die anyway, cool!

Will not feel so bad about having the heaters in the winter and aircon in the summer on 24/7 now

[rodderz]

Originally Posted by Danny

I haven't posted here for some time now, but this whole theory stirred a respose from me. Now when I was 10 - 15 years old, I was once scared of the world's end and these theories, but these days I laugh at crap like this. It's an insult to intelligence.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWkEYxBGqN8

Also (I'm no astronomer, but....), If the Orbit of this Planet Nibiru was 3600 years long, and it's the size of Jupiter, then I find it absolutely ridiculous that these idiots say that it will only become visible within two years of its passing.... A planet that size and of that long an orbit would be approaching, and slowly enlargening in the skies for tens, maybe hundreds of years wouldn't it? A simple anomalie that these Doomspeakers have overlooked...

I wonder if the scientologists are hiring backhoes to dig holes and getting trolley's worth of shopping in preparation for the end of days to hide in the hole

[MrBean]

A planet that size and of that long an orbit would be approaching, and slowly enlargening in the skies for tens, maybe hundreds of years wouldn't it?

The two facts you are forgetting:
1) It's orbit, being 3600 long, and it's velocity, is 2 different things - it will travel at least at a good couple of 10's of thousands of km/h, so it will sweep by very quickly - we don't know how elliptical it's orbit is, and indeed if we sit at the end of the ellipse, or in the middle on one of the long, sweeping bends...

2)Due to it's distance from the earth, measured in lightyears, it means that it will be 2(years)x 186k miles (speed of light per sec) x 60 (to minutes) x 60(to hours) x 24(to day) x 365.25(to year) miles from the earth, and it's passing will be indeed visible 2 years after the fact - as the light it emits can only travel at the speed of light, see calculation above.

So, fairly logical......to be honest.....don't you think? Or am I being a dufus here....dunno, maybe :(

[troppo]

Originally Posted by MrBean

The two facts you are forgetting:
1) It's orbit, being 3600 long, and it's velocity, is 2 different things - it will travel at least at a good couple of 10's of thousands of km/h, so it will sweep by very quickly - we don't know how elliptical it's orbit is, and indeed if we sit at the end of the ellipse, or in the middle on one of the long, sweeping bends...

2)Due to it's distance from the earth, measured in lightyears, it means that it will be 2(years)x 186k miles (speed of light per sec) x 60 (to minutes) x 60(to hours) x 24(to day) x 365.25(to year) miles from the earth, and it's passing will be indeed visible 2 years after the fact - as the light it emits can only travel at the speed of light, see calculation above.

So, fairly logical......to be honest.....don't you think? Or am I being a dufus here....dunno, maybe :(

1. Without knowing the actual length of it's orbit as well as it's duration, it's impossible to calculate it's velocity. If we don't know the shape of the orbit, it's impossible to know the length. Therefore, it's velocity is incalculable from that information alone but obviously it will be a major factor in whether it sneaks up on us or is obvious for years beforehand.

2. If it's distance from Earth is currently 2 light years then you are correct in your assertion that what is seen today is the postion of the planet 2 years ago. Given that, it will take at least 2 years for it to collide with Earth if it is travelling at the speed of light. Assuming half the speed of light, 4 years till impact, making it 2012. You will agree, even 20 thousand miles per hour is still a long way short of half the speed of light @ 90 thousand per second. 90 thousand miles an hour is still only 1/60th of half the speed of light, so 90 thousand miles an hour would give us 240 years (4 x 60) from now (assuming this thing is 2 light years away).
To put things in perspective: the moon is 1.25 light seconds away and the sun a mere 8.28 light minutes away.

Seems logical but I dunno either....

Edit: Oops, 90k mph is not 1/60th, it's 1/3600th

[MrBean]

: Me head is spinning in all directions now...lol

[Rodp]

Originally Posted by MrBean

The two facts you are forgetting:
1) It's orbit, being 3600 long, and it's velocity, is 2 different things - it will travel at least at a good couple of 10's of thousands of km/h, so it will sweep by very quickly - we don't know how elliptical it's orbit is, and indeed if we sit at the end of the ellipse, or in the middle on one of the long, sweeping bends...

So, fairly logical......to be honest.....don't you think? Or am I being a dufus here....dunno, maybe :(

There's absolutely no way something this large would be under the influence of the Sun's gravitational pull and have such an elliptical orbit. Due to its mass, I'm sure it would have escaped the Sun's inflence on its outermost ark.

Had the scientific community given this theory any credence whatsoever, it would be possible to calculate the gravitational pull that this planet x imparts on the Sun and visa versa and hence calculate is approximate location and mass. Also, given its alledged size, I'm sure it would be possible to spot it with hubble.

In other words, it's absolute and utter bollocks.

[gtfpv]

Originally Posted by Danny

I haven't posted here for some time now, but this whole theory stirred a respose from me. Now when I was 10 - 15 years old, I was once scared of the world's end and these theories, but these days I laugh at crap like this. It's an insult to intelligence.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWkEYxBGqN8

Also (I'm no astronomer, but....), If the Orbit of this Planet Nibiru was 3600 years long, and it's the size of Jupiter, then I find it absolutely ridiculous that these idiots say that it will only become visible within two years of its passing.... A planet that size and of that long an orbit would be approaching, and slowly enlargening in the skies for tens, maybe hundreds of years wouldn't it? A simple anomalie that these Doomspeakers have overlooked...

that video is fascinating and more like it dude. it's what we all think and makes rational scientific sense. the truth is though , even if a large planet crossed our orbit on the other side of the sun , it would still be quit small to look at, mars for example is a dot , so is venus if we had a twin planet earth on the same obit as ours on the same side as the sun so we could see it in plain view , it would look like another small star. i once read that if the sun was a light bulb, earth would be a house fly 8km away. think of that scale . !!!!!!
the theories and conspiricies are always interesting though . because we all know . conspiricies, theories, and practicality, and facts all exist.

[Bent8]

This is all just speculation....and a little fear mongering!

My prediction: the world is not gonna end

Now let's all go back to enjoying our Fords :eclipsee_

[CAT600]

Originally Posted by El Sucio

There is a meteor on a collision course with earth. It's next pass is in the year 2017 and it is expected to pass between the earth and the moon. We'll know on this next pass if it will collide with the earth on it's following pass (2029) or another one after that.

It's not a planet killer. But with the destructive power of approx 200 Megatons it will definitely annihilate any of the world's largest cities (New York, London, New Delhi, etc).

You can research it. The meteor's name escapes me at the moment, but you should find it easy enough. There has been a fair bit on it on the BBC news lately.

MN4 2004 or Apophis was the one a few years ago.

Apophis stands for God of Death I believe. It's second pass cannot accuratley be determined until after it's first pass which will occur in 2029, then it will have a couple of passes in 2037. It is still pretty unlikley to be an issue

VK184 is the newer one that poses a measurable risk at the moment, It cannot hit until 2048 at the earliest so not going to worry me too much. It is still carring a rating 1/10 on the Torino scale and we'll see if it changes over the next few months.

[Rodp]

Originally Posted by CAT600

MN4 2004 or Apophis was the one a few years ago.

Apophis stands for God of Death I believe. It's second pass cannot accuratley be determined until after it's first pass which will occur in 2029, then it will have a couple of passes in 2037. It is still pretty unlikley to be an issue

VK184 is the newer one that poses a measurable risk at the moment, It cannot hit until 2048 at the earliest so not going to worry me too much. It is still carring a rating 1/10 on the Torino scale and we'll see if it changes over the next few months.

Clearly you've never observed a dust particle hitting a golf ball. It'll likely hit the ocean anyway and cause no discernable damage.

[pitpal]

Originally Posted by Rodp

Clearly you've never observed a dust particle hitting a golf ball. It'll likely hit the ocean anyway and cause no discernable damage.

The force of the impact will send tsunamis several hundred meters high and can cause just as much damage.