Australia housing bubble

[Citroënbender]

Here we are, a month later… Have the “waiters and watchers” actually moved closer to a purchase?

I’m not feeling optimistic about the first world global economy, longer term. And on a shorter term local scale I believe the belligerence in some parts of our economy will allow them to sustain outgoings while less assertive sectors get bent over.

With real estate in my area, prices seem to have rebounded firmly after a brief dip and the social cachet is appended to arranged viewings, “private treaty” sales, now preferred versus the peasantry of on-site auctions last year. Yes, the closing prices are still down on where previous trajectory would have taken them, but far from a collapse.

[buggerlugs]

Been down near Ballarat for a few months cleaning up our bush block. Farms and rural land still selling quickly and most houses advertised in town have sold signs on them. Building still going at a crazy rate. Indians chasing Mother in laws block on 10 acres. Has recently been rezoned from rural to res. Started at $900k, up to $2.4 mill last week. Targeting her neighbor's as well. Thought it would slow down but it doesn't seem to of.........

Yet....

[Citroënbender]

It may change if the “citizenship by investment” criteria is adjusted to remove property plays as portions of that investment. At present it’s a mockery of fairness.

[Citroënbender]

Another ABC article about housing, more factual/less bleat than many they publish:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-...2022/101495078

But the following graph from this article suggests a market correction is likely to still validate ideas of longer term stable growth.

(Image taken from link above.)

[T3rminator]

The perfect storm coming? Might be a good test for Basel 3 me thinks.

There are some serious rumours doing the rounds about a major bank failure
https://www.forexlive.com/news/there...lure-20221002/

[xkxlxm]

It seems that the Reserve Bank will announce another interest rate rise today ... I thought interest rates weren't going to rise until 2024?

[FTE217]

don't know where yopu heard that xkx***.
Last I recall there was going to be at least 5/6......

oh no its the end of the world, don't buy don't sell just hold tight, good times will comeback

[Citroënbender]

I can remember the RBA acolytes back in the early nineties, having a drunk ditty about Bernie Fraser walking on water. And what PJK did to his daughter.

[xkxlxm]

I was just referring to Lowe's comment (a year ago? less than a year ago?) that official interest rates were unlikely to rise until 2024.

He should have kept his mouth shut. (I have to admit that is sometimes easier said than done).

[T3rminator]

My broker mate told me just before the rate rises hit "don't follow the RBA, follow the banks". My only regret is that I only fixed my loan for 2 years and not longer as he had advised.

[xkxlxm]

Referencing my termite/alate posts a while ago on this thread: twenty minutes ago, sitting in back veranda, I saw alates floating about outside, right on cue: late October at the end of a warm day. They seem to be coming from a bottle brush tree in back yard of a house behind neighbour's house.

[zilo]

Biggest problem for those coming off fixed rates is they may not be able to do the shopping around anymore.

Good possibility that the house is valued less than the amount of the loan which either triggers a margin call by banks for more cash deposit or becomes a mortgage prison by not being able to switch anymore...or worse being recommended to sell up as the only option.

Fun times for some....laughter for those of us who knew better.

[PG2]

Originally Posted by zilo

Biggest problem for those coming off fixed rates is they may not be able to do the shopping around anymore.

Good possibility that the house is valued less than the amount of the loan which either triggers a margin call by banks for more cash deposit or becomes a mortgage prison by not being able to switch anymore...or worse being recommended to sell up as the only option.

Fun times for some....laughter for those of us who knew better.

Zilo

Maybe I am being precious and taking the above the wrong way but...

I don't think the possibility of someone losing their family home is a laughing matter.

[hackney]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Here we are, a month later… Have the “waiters and watchers” actually moved closer to a purchase?

I’m not feeling optimistic about the first world global economy, longer term. And on a shorter term local scale I believe the belligerence in some parts of our economy will allow them to sustain outgoings while less assertive sectors get bent over.

With real estate in my area, prices seem to have rebounded firmly after a brief dip and the social cachet is appended to arranged viewings, “private treaty” sales, now preferred versus the peasantry of on-site auctions last year. Yes, the closing prices are still down on where previous trajectory would have taken them, but far from a collapse.

Yup, I sold our place,@ pretty close to what it was listed for.Bought in the A.C.T. New home, fell over @ auction initially, then had a price ‘correction’ still sat there.Made an offer well below that & was accepted! Stoked with the purchase, house is a 4/3/2.Lovely house!Canberra market is insane! Timed it just right & was also lucky to be in the right place @ the right time.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Just my observation within the local market here and only based on watching the local real estate pages:

Sales slowed somewhat when the interest rates increased, but prices didn't appear to correct too much. Just that the time increased from when the property was advertised to when it went to contract. But that time appears to have decreased once again. Whilst they haven't returned to the pre-interest rate rise pace, it has certainly decreased. And any price correction has been negligible.

[Citroënbender]

Hackney - I think you’re possibly the sole active poster who’s made a move - everyone else remains in the gallery. Hope the ACT is what you’re expecting of it.

FG-X, your town seems by comparison to others of similar distance from Melbourne and with similar amenity, still underpriced on the whole; not surprised it’s coming up steadily.

Local to me, one of the Chinese builders sold three semis at auction for an average of $2.147M last year, the most recent project 300m away with inferior Feng Shui sold for $2.026M apiece post auction (were passed in). They retained one of the semis for a relative or associate and the whole site cost them $3,3M. Absolute money for jam.

[hackney]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Hackney - I think you’re possibly the sole active poster who’s made a move - everyone else remains in the gallery. Hope the ACT is what you’re expecting of it.

FG-X, your town seems by comparison to others of similar distance from Melbourne and with similar amenity, still underpriced on the whole; not surprised it’s coming up steadily.

Local to me, one of the Chinese builders sold three semis at auction for an average of $2.147M last year, the most recent project 300m away with inferior Feng Shui sold for $2.026M apiece post auction (were passed in). They retained one of the semis for a relative or associate and the whole site cost them $3,3M. Absolute money for jam.

We have been talking about it for awhile, yes we will go, no,we will stay, back & forth with decisions.The market coming back to us actually helped.We had to move eventually, had a very steep driveway & ver big garden(wife is a very big green thumb & passionate gardener) but things were getting tougher, in the garden area & drive way was not conducive for washing cars.I suspect this will be our last move.Great home though energy rating of 7.2.Hardly used the ducted A/C just don’t need to use it.

[Yellow_Festiva]

It's getting close to the end of the year when I said I would get back into the market for my next house.

There is not much for sale, and what is being advertised for auction is either selling before or getting passed in.

After 2 days of open houses my phone has rung hot with feedback and invitations for offers. Prices have come off the boil (SW Sydney) and there have been some surprising auction results (both good and bad).

Have my eye on one place that I really like, only problem is it's at the top end of my budget so if it sells for 10-15% over agents expectation I'm out. Reading the agent he will entertain selling before the auction, and I think it's time I stop kicking the tyres and put in an offer or 2.

Fingers crossed I guess.

[hackney]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

It's getting close to the end of the year when I said I would get back into the market for my next house.

There is not much for sale, and what is being advertised for auction is either selling before or getting passed in.

After 2 days of open houses my phone has rung hot with feedback and invitations for offers. Prices have come off the boil (SW Sydney) and there have been some surprising auction results (both good and bad).

Have my eye on one place that I really like, only problem is it's at the top end of my budget so if it sells for 10-15% over agents expectation I'm out. Reading the agent he will entertain selling before the auction, and I think it's time I stop kicking the tyres and put in an offer or 2.

Fingers crossed I guess.

The only way is to make an offer, then you know we’re you stand financially.Good luck.

[zilo]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

It's getting close to the end of the year when I said I would get back into the market for my next house.

There is not much for sale, and what is being advertised for auction is either selling before or getting passed in.

After 2 days of open houses my phone has rung hot with feedback and invitations for offers. Prices have come off the boil (SW Sydney) and there have been some surprising auction results (both good and bad).

Have my eye on one place that I really like, only problem is it's at the top end of my budget so if it sells for 10-15% over agents expectation I'm out. Reading the agent he will entertain selling before the auction, and I think it's time I stop kicking the tyres and put in an offer or 2.

Fingers crossed I guess.

Wait a while....another RBA meeting next week.

[hackney]

Originally Posted by zilo

Wait a while....another RBA meeting next week.

Err,no.Just adjust what you can pay, & make sure that you build in a buffer ,no brainer.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by zilo

Wait a while....another RBA meeting next week.

No sooner did I start paying for my DD, I opened my news feed to read that the RBA had predicted rates to 'possibly' reach mid 4's and prices to 'possibly' drop another 20%.

Will see of course, but need to take that into consideration when at the auction. The agent no longer wants to accept pre-offers. It's going to auction this Saturday and will sell for the highest bid. Fine by me.

Originally Posted by hackney

Err,no.Just adjust what you can pay, & make sure that you build in a buffer ,no brainer.

Absolutely - have since revised down my maximum I'm willing to spend.

Another place I though was out of my budget went for well below my expectation so just need to turn up and see how I go.

[Polyal]

Its very location dependent, there are plenty of places around and outside Hobart that are going for 5-10% over advertised price. And most of these places are nothing fancy and in the 600-800 range..not sure how the upper end of town is going.

Very limited market here and building is a bit tougher due to lack of labour etc.

[hackney]

Originally Posted by Polyal

Its very location dependent, there are plenty of places around and outside Hobart that are going for 5-10% over advertised price. And most of these places are nothing fancy and in the 600-800 range..not sure how the upper end of town is going.

Very limited market here and building is a bit tougher due to lack of labour etc.

It is, but for some reason the A.C.T market keeps defying trends even though it has come back a little.But, mark my words it will rebound to strong levels once again.Market is insane.

[FTE217]

ACT has always been a high market due to the white collar % down there.
Sure it may have dipped some but with all the Gov jobs/embassy's its sure to recover better than anywhere in Oz imo.

Polyal, your last sentence is similar everywhere - not just lack of labour but slow supply of building materials/and house new appliancense's etc.....

We've just gone through a 3/4mth reno, re locate kitchen, 2 new bathrooms new laundry amongst other minor adjustments.
Getting th elines the wife wanted many times you had waits or find an alternative, many times.
Then between our Tradies getting them in line due to so much demand had its moments.

As for buying I'm with Hackney, the ones in trouble are always the ones who over extend themselves, you should always cover your b utt but thats me even when in the good times.
Nothing lasts forever.
The wife calls me the conservative, yep we sure could have invested more but we own everything.

[Charliewool]

Originally Posted by zilo

Wait a while....another RBA meeting next week.

A saying my old man often used..
“The best time to buy real estate is yesterday”
And in the long term, it’s still applicable!

[zilo]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

A saying my old man often used..
“The best time to buy real estate is yesterday”
And in the long term, it’s still applicable!

The apple never falls far from the tree I guess.

Standard disclaimer.

What is past performance disclaimer?

"the performance represented is historical" and that "past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and investors may not recover the full amount invested."16 Aug 2022

[xkxlxm]

Just went to an auction (Melb.) as a spectator. Weatherboard house on biggish block (block next door has four units on it). Strong bidding. 'On the market' at 980 or 990, sold for $1,131,000. (Auctioneer was very good.)

Just before the bidding started a bloke asked a question about the vacant block behind ... trying to create doubt in other bidders' minds ... his mate, of course, joined in the bidding after a while and was the under bidder.

[Charliewool]

Originally Posted by xkxlxm

Just went to an auction (Melb.) as a spectator. Weatherboard house on biggish block (block next door has four units on it). Strong bidding. 'On the market' at 980 or 990, sold for $1,131,000. (Auctioneer was very good.)

Just before the bidding started a bloke asked a question about the vacant block behind ... trying to create doubt in other bidders' minds ... his mate, of course, joined in the bidding after a while and was the under bidder.

What area of Melb?

[blueoval]

A recent subdivision in the Suburb of Oakden Rise South Australia went up for sale very recently. Oakden is an area close to Gilles Plains, Holden Hill and Yatala (where the prison is).

The smallest block of land there is 117sq.m. That's right, 117sq.m with 4.5m frontage! It sold for $164,000. The largest block of land there which is 450sq.m sold for $549,000.

While this might not be a surprise for some of you who live in the Eastern states, this is very surprising from a long term SA residents point of view.

The allotments had to go in a lottery due to the amount of interest and the emotion for those who happen to snap these up were polarizing. I mean, I am happy they got to buy some land, but at the same time I am perplexed at the perceived value in this.

Maybe Im old fashioned or just not with the times, but things escalated to light speed in a matter of months.