AFL Grand Final: St. Kilda v Geelong

[Cobra]

Since I titled the other thread Prelim finals I thought it would be better to start a new thread on this weeks game, the most important game of the year. If a mod feels the need to merge the two threads though, by all means do so.

Well, what can I say? The two best teams by far this year has been St Kilda and Geelong, so it's obviously great to see them playing off. I have to admit, for a while there I thought it would be Dejavu of '99 where Essendon and North Melbourne were the best two teams in the comp that year but Essendon were knocked out in one of the most memorable Prelims ever.

Defence vs Attack.

St Kilda were renowned for their tackling pressure all year. They stifled their oppostion, causing turnovers which usually resulted in a goal for them. Their pressure on the ball carrier, and the discipline of their game plan was A1. "Lyons Cage" as it's affectionately known as has been solid all year, and almost been impenetrable. Geelong have had thier play on at all cost style for the last 3 years now. It has served them extremely well, has made them a very exciting team to watch when taking it through the corridor. Their run has been almost unstoppable, and really have only ever been dominated once since this adopted game plan, which occured agaisnt Collingwood in Rnd 9, 2008.

We have already had a taste of what's to come. The round 14 game this year between these two sides was arguably one of the best games in the modern era. Will we see the same thing happen again? Maybe. But there's are a few things to note first. Firstly, team structures. Geelong had injuries to 3 key players (Ottens, Johnson and Kelly) who are all back in the side now, and who all contributed with solid games last week. The other is the venue.

Much has been made of St Kilda not having experience at the MCG, and that the wide wings will make their 'flooding' type of play difficult and maye gte them exposed. Considering they beat the team in the first qualifying final whcih has more MCG expereince than any other this year, and who play along the wings more than any other team, quite convincngly in the end, even if on the scoreboard it only showed 28 points, tells me that this is a non issue.

The other thing is that Geelong like to run through the corridor, so effectivly the Saints have a lot less room to have to guard. Normally this would play into their hands, but I think with the speed that Geelong can not only run through the centre, but flick the ball around to effectively play keepings off, may expose the saints weakness. If the Saints can't effectively stop Geelongs run via pressure, they certainly won't be able to match them with leg speed, and I think this maybe cause St Kilda massive problems.

One last question mark that hangs over this game to me is how well Nick Rewolt pulls up. He has been instrumental and inspirational all year for the Saints. He is the heart and soul of that club, and has single handedly willed them over the line to get them to the position that they are in today. But how will his knee hold up? Last week seeing him hobble like that would be enough for any saints fans to get cold sweats. I think if St Kilda are to be a chance, he needs to have a blinder.

Everything all points to this being one of the best Grand Finals of all time. But rarely when a game like this is billed up to be this big does it actually deliver on it's promise. Round 14 delivered more than anyone could have hoped for. Whether or not that will happen again, no one knows. But what I am sure about is that both teams will be hungry - desperate if you will, to be able to raise that cup above their head on Saturday afternoon.

When you look back and analyse it clinically, you can say that the Saints are where Geelong were a couple of years ago. Whilst Geelong, having been the best team for the last 3 years (probably equal best this year), have the emotional burden of last year still fresh in their minds, and knowing that aother loss in a GF would almost certainly spell and end to their dominant era, it's harder to say who's under more pressure.

The fact that the Cats have been here 3 years in a row, and that they are savagely hungry to avenge last year, and combine that with the fact that they've got a full fresh list at their disposal, it's hard not to back them. But the Saints have been awesome all year, a well coached and well disciplined side, with eveyr player exactly intune with what their role is. To dsimiss the Saints purely on their lack of GF expereince would be folly, as we all know what happened in Geelongs first GF in '07. Are the Saints on about to start their Dynasty? Or are the Cats so hungry to get one more cup that nothing will stop them? Only time will tell, but for mine, consdiering evertything, it's just hard clinically and emotionally for me to not back them.

Prediction: Geelong by 16 points.