Covid 19 -

[russellw]

Originally Posted by PHANTMXR6

Is that a typo Russ and you meant 31/10?

No, I meant the 13th.

To try and get a more accurate CMR, we look at cases from 15-30 days ago and then match those with the mortality data for the last 15 days as we know that is roughly the median delay in case mortality and refer to this as the adjusted CMR. Otherwise, the data is skewed because you could have 1k cases last week and almost no deaths as they won't come until next week or the week after.

For example the current Victorian CMR for all of 2021 is 0.424% based on ~71k cases but 24k of those cases have been in the last 14 days and they will result in 100-150 deaths which will make the CMR closer to 0.659%.

Originally Posted by slowsnake

Hey Russell, do you think that being locked down for such a long period in the UK may have had more of a detrimental effect on middle aged folk?

I think that some of what was reported in that study in terms of the psychological impacts can be attributed to the lockdowns but I suspect the bulk of the 'anxiety' issues are related to simple fear given that many of the hospitalised would have been amongst the elderly.

For mine, the missing link in that research is the severity and impact measures. It's a great headline grabber to say that 54% of COVID cases (that were hospitalised) still have at least 1 PASC after 6 months but if that '1' is an issue with anxiety or other mental disorder then that puts a different slant on it - not that I'm underestimating the impact of those.

The key take-away for me is the chest imaging abnormalities in a high percentage of those survivors and the next thing we need to learn from that is just how severe those abnormalities are.

Clearly, the reported incidence of Dyspnea (29.7%); pulmonary diffusion abnormalities (30.3%); ground glass opacification (an increase in lung attenuation) (23.1%); restrictive patterns on spirometry (10.0%) and lung fibrosis (7.0%) are all cause for concern as they impact long term health outcomes and probably life expectancy, particularly as many will have multiple of those symptoms but we need to know (for example) if the GGO is 5% or 10% etc. to assess the likely impact.