Is 120 hours for learner Drivers really necessary?

[robbo_yobbo]

Originally Posted by Unco

the report that i quoted a link to on page 2 says you're wrong. remember we're talking about 'new drivers'.

Not intended to stirr up controversey, but the transport SA site backs me up, and although my read through the stated document was only brief, the only relevant stat I noted in the document was a 35% reduction in incedents involving inexperianced drivers when given 118hrs compared to 45hrs, but no comparison compared to the population as a whole (not saying your wrong, just that I couldnt find it), and it didnt compare it to a percentage of crashes involving supervised drivers (which would negate a certain portion of that 35%'s worthiness)

Theres plenty of documents on the transport SA website, but heres a random selection http://www.transport.sa.gov.au/safet.../2007June.html

This document shows fatalities on SA roads, from year to date in june 2007.

The results suggest that of a total 59 deaths on the road, only 18 (30%) were in the 0-24 age bracket, and ONLY 7 (11%) were in the 0-19yo bracket (this is where you will find the overwhealming majority of under 120hr drivers).

ONLY 11%!!! that means that 89% of these fatalaties involve the 20+ bracket, which is where the majority of "over 120hr" drivers can be found

[Unco]

the focus is on accidents in general though, not just fatalities, which you seem to have concentrated on. i guess i probably should have pointed that out when i quoted you.

[robbo_yobbo]

Originally Posted by Unco

the focus is on accidents in general though, not just fatalities, which you seem to have concentrated on. i guess i probably should have pointed that out when i quoted you.

I realise that, but keeping the following in mind..................

Originally Posted by robbo_yobbo

I will even go so far as to guarantee that of all road deaths, there are more 'over 120hrs' deaths than there are 'under 120hrs' deaths

^My Quote.
Followed by.....

Originally Posted by Unco

the report that i quoted a link to on page 2 says you're wrong. remember we're talking about 'new drivers'.

The original point you picked me up on was regarding fatalities (and not accidents in general) and that the report said I was wrong, but it didnt, it didnt actualy say either way, But the transport SA website did however confirm my statement.

What the document did suggest was a 35% reduction in incidents "over 120 hrs" compared to "between 40+120hrs" (how many of those were supermarket love taps? 34%?? 1%?? we just dont know).

When we combine the 2 docs, theres a few things that appear to be suggest......

Out of 100 fatal crashes, 18 might be "under 120hrs" drivers, and by extending thier training to over 120hrs we MIGHT reduce that down to 11-12 out of 100. The end result is a potential maximum of 5-6% reduction in the road toll (by removing 35% of 18%).

Other things to keep in mind, is that one of the original 18 "under 120hrs" drivers might have been in a fatal accident while actualy being supervised for example (accounting for 1 or 2 deaths that shouldnt sway the stats), and one or more of those 18 may have even been an "under 40hrs" driver for that matter.

Other factors like this may see that 5-6% net reduction closer to 2% or even 1%.

Now Im not for a minute saying that people with under 120hrs instructed driving are safer than if they had over 120hrs, Im just saying, take a look at the figures on the grand scale, and it doesnt seem anywhere near as impressive

I would imagine that fatalities are directly proportional to total accidents anyway, so when looking at all accidents as a whole, the final percentage will probably still be close.

[Tuddy200]

I don't see 'how' you can cover all driving situations or conditions in 120 hrs. I'm driving average of 1,000-2,000km/s a week and still come into situations that I haven't encounted before etc.

I don't think making people do more hours will help, as we all know that "supervising" drivers arn't always the best to start with anyway. You'd have to do 120 hours with a professional driving instructor.

Personally, I say more education on "new" drivers being more aware of both there surroundings and the car they are driving. Once you know the "car" and, then learn the road rules/laws I believe any "new" driver can use common sense with a sitiuation they face.

I'd still say they need to have a professional driving instructor taking them through a course which includes wet/icey weather, multilane highways etc. The more obvisous situations they would face.

A driver with 30 years driving experience is obvisously more likily to correctly predict what another road user is going to do then someone who just gained thier P's. Melbourne peak hour traffic is a good example, how many would say there fully confident to tackle that fter only 120 hours driving experience?

[Unco]

Originally Posted by robbo_yobbo

I would imagine that fatalities are directly proportional to total accidents anyway, so when looking at all accidents as a whole, the final percentage will probably still be close.

yes, that's right, but i guess the point could be argued that because the new generation of '120 hour drivers' results in 35% less incidents, these figures would eventually result in lower road fatalities across the entire age range.

what i'm suggesting is don't focus on the current statistics, but rather have a vision of what the possible outcome would be in a few years time.

[vv4yn0]

While I admit I voted yes, I firmly believe that Attitude is more important than Experience. Plenty of experienced people stack their cars.
I ride a bike and I drive a car and the approach i have to each is totally different - Through years of riding I have learnt that the single most important piece of "safety" equipment is your brain and the way you approach the task determines whether you will accomplish it. I spent a few years driving like a goose in my younger days and looking back it was merely luck that I didn't have a serious incident. It wasn't hours of experience that changed my driving style - it was age and the accompanying wisdom. Its difficult to explain but something you only fully grasp as you get older and wiser.