Oil price $200 a barrel by Christmas 2008?

[Bill M]

Thats what some oracles forecast, does anyone have an explanation as to why pump prices are over $1.50 a litre when the barrel price is under $80 US? I cannot accept the fall in the $AU is all that is keeping 91 octane over $1.50 a litre! :
cheers
Bill.

[Daymoe]

Originally Posted by Bill M

Thats what some oracles forecast, does anyone have an explanation as to why pump prices are over $1.50 a litre when the barrel price is under $80 US? I cannot accept the fall in the $AU is all that is keeping 91 octane over $1.50 a litre! :
cheers
Bill.

Probably about 15-20 cents over priced, someone is making money out of it and it sure as hell ain't us!

[ltd]

Originally Posted by Bill M

Thats what some oracles forecast, does anyone have an explanation as to why pump prices are over $1.50 a litre when the barrel price is under $80 US? I cannot accept the fall in the $AU is all that is keeping 91 octane over $1.50 a litre! :
cheers
Bill.

The oracle is wrong, oil has more chance of being US$50.00 per barrel by christmas than over US$100.00 per barrel as scared speculators and investors get out of oil futures and back into core commodities such as metals. As for the price here, although the dollar has fallen from its record highs of 98 cents US back to 67 cents US affecting what AUD$ we pay for it, the petrol watch scam and the ACCC have allowed profiteering to go on unabated and they are both throwing their hands up in the air not knowing what to do. It appears that all that empty rhetoric before last years election was just that, empty. Whatsmore is even the petrol watch commissioner quitting his post due to the postumus nature of the whole scam err scheme.
Saying one is serious on tackling the rising cost of petrol is one thing, saying it whilst simultaneously increasing the excise on diesel fuel as well as internally planning the reintroduction of petrol excise indexation is indeed the very definition of a hypocrite.
My solution, lie down on a bed of shopper dockets and repeat over and over the phrase "working families" until you fall asleep and wake up in 2010 when this whole bogus fiasco is over.

[Falcon Coupe]

Originally Posted by ltd

Saying one is serious on tackling the rising cost of petrol is one thing, saying it whilst simultaneously increasing the excise on diesel fuel as well as internally planning the reintroduction of petrol excise indexation is indeed the very definition of a hypocrite..

I must have missed something here, is this speculation or fact ?

[ebxr8240]

Originally Posted by Falcon Coupe

I must have missed something here, is this speculation or fact ?

Like both sides care too much !! They still get the tax's..
That's on total price...
Ethanol made and sold separate to oil companies to promote competition!!
Is in the answer

[ltd]

Originally Posted by Falcon Coupe

I must have missed something here, is this speculation or fact ?

Not speculation, fact. There has been a leaked white paper on the matter, as well as a now open discussion on agreement of the states on increasing the GST from 10% to 12%. Thankfully for the GST, the government changed in WA which means that concensus between the states won't be reached and ergo the GST won't be changed however, they are now looking at ways to increase revenue through taxation and excise indexation is seen as a viable alternative due to its indirectness meaning it is typically being hidden from public opinion.

As for the 2cpl increase in excise on Diesel, that happened on December 1st 2007.

[nugget378]

Originally Posted by ltd

The oracle is wrong, oil has more chance of being US$50.00 per barrel by christmas than over US$100.00 per barrel as scared speculators and investors get out of oil futures and back into core commodities such as metals. As for the price here, although the dollar has fallen from its record highs of 98 cents US back to 67 cents US affecting what AUD$ we pay for it, the petrol watch scam and the ACCC have allowed profiteering to go on unabated and they are both throwing their hands up in the air not knowing what to do. It appears that all that empty rhetoric before last years election was just that, empty. Whatsmore is even the petrol watch commissioner quitting his post due to the postumus nature of the whole scam err scheme.
Saying one is serious on tackling the rising cost of petrol is one thing, saying it whilst simultaneously increasing the excise on diesel fuel as well as internally planning the reintroduction of petrol excise indexation is indeed the very definition of a hypocrite.
My solution, lie down on a bed of shopper dockets and repeat over and over the phrase "working families" until you fall asleep and wake up in 2010 when this whole bogus fiasco is over.

Thats what happens when you vote in an ultra conservative government :,

big corporates work hand in hand with government to make huge profits..

[ltd]

JUst a side note too to think about, before they started discussing reintroducing excise indexation, has everyone else noted the concerted effort to demonise cars with an engine capacity over 2 litres? What about the councils of the same party such as North Sydney trying to fine vehicles based on engine size?
You see, create the illusion of a problem with global warming, carbon credits etc which then gets heaps of press, then go on to introduce new taxes which are aimed supposedly at the problem to rapturous applause of the die hards and the party faithful.
Indexation will be championed as a way to offset carbon emmissions, as well as stop people buying V8's and other killers.

[omn1potent]

The rising price (and associated costs) of Oil / Petrol Discussion Thread.

[bob^]

How much was petrol this time last year?
I've done a bit of research and the last time oil was this price was mid Septemper 2007, and then it started to rise from there.
At the same time, our dollar was around the 0.79c mark.
Petrol down here is $1.43lt currently.

Oil history - http://www.nyse.tv/crude-oil-price-history.htm
Exchange rate history - http://www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory (2000 day max history)

[joolz]

So much for Mr Rudds "applying a blow torch" speech!

[BFZ Wagon]

I was going to do the same thing bob^. I have been thinking of looking up the figures from 2007 and back further but also trying to find OZ petrol prices from those times as well.
If the price of oil keeps going down in the next few months and the $ figure stays the same or goes up, you can bet the fuel price will stay the same and some other 'fantasy story' will be made up to explain it. Even with the $ at the current price it is, with oil price going down, the fuel price should still be going down.
I remember back in 1998 when I went to to the US, the AU$ was @ 51/53c and petrol was still @ 60ishc/L in QLD. I don't know what the oil price was back then but I'm going to have a look and see if I can find it.

But as usual, the Australian people get shafted and the rich get richer.

Also. people need to stop listening to and believing the 'media lies' and start thinking for themselves!

That's all.

[ltd]

Originally Posted by All Wheel Drive

I was going to do the same thing bob^. I have been thinking of looking up the figures from 2007 and back further but also trying to find OZ petrol prices from those times as well.
If the price of oil keeps going down in the next few months and the $ figure stays the same or goes up, you can bet the fuel price will stay the same and some other 'fantasy story' will be made up to explain it. Even with the $ at the current price it is, with oil price going down, the fuel price should still be going down.
I remember back in 1998 when I went to to the US, the AU$ was @ 51/53c and petrol was still @ 60ishc/L in QLD. I don't know what the oil price was back then but I'm going to have a look and see if I can find it.

But as usual, the Australian people get shafted and the rich get richer.

Also. people need to stop listening to and believing the 'media lies' and start thinking for themselves!

That's all.

At the moment it is convenient for the price of petrol to be high, as it artificially inflates the GST on petrol giving a huge windfall to the states which frankly, are in a budgetary twilight zone. If the price of petrol was pressured by the ACCC or the federal government, the federal government would then have to make up the shortfall as they are the only ones in the country with a surplus. What we'll continue to witness is the employment of diversionary tactics as well as spin endorsed by a compliant media in order to take the heat out of the petrol prices debate. Seriously, we are getting royally screwed. With inflation running over 5% and companies downsizing or going bust, we are in for some tumultuous times ahead. I pity Ford, as most people will hold off on a purchase in these uncertain times. For those that decide to buy a car from ford and can afford it well done, you will be the very ones keeping them going throughout this recession that we didn't need.

[joolz]

Considering when oil was $147 a barrel the pump price in Melbourne peaked at $1.70 p/ltr. A few weeks ago when oil was around $95 per barrel and the aussie $ only about 10cents less than same time the pump price still peaked at $169.9 p/ltr. Im no mathametition but something just doesnt add up. The price at the pump should have peaked at around the $1.40 - $1.50 mark. I guess the Government arent really worried as they are making heaps on the tax and they still think thay we will buy less and save the enviroment!! Looking forward to the carbon trading tax like a hole in the head!!

[whynot]

Originally Posted by joolz

Im no mathametition but something just doesnt add up.

Oil is priced in USD (United States Dollars). Yes, the price of oil has fallen. Presently, it is US$79.84.

The AUD (Australian Dollar) has falled from USD0.979701 (15 July) to USD0.6531 (12 Oct). A stunning decline.

http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/AUD/graph120.html

The Australian refineries operate in a world market, and the petrol price in Australia is reflective of the price of gasoline at the Singapore refinery gate.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rp15sin5d.htm

On 15 July, the price for one gallon of gasoline was 318.24 cents (I assume the fingures are in USD). As of yesterday, it was 224.12 cents per gallon.

If I have done my maths right;

On 15 July, this equates to AUD 324 cents per gallon.

Yesterday, this equates to AUD 342 cents per gallon.

So, (big if that I have done my maths right), the price of petrol in Australia should have risen by around 5.8%.

[King Nothing]

Hey guys, I've done a really quick analysis using the links that bob^ posted, plus the WA fuelwatch website for fuel prices. Keep in mind I've been watching bathurst all day, with the associated beers so please point out if my logic is flawed! First I'll show this graph and explain.



Firstly, the axis of the graph. The left hand side is all the values in $, except for petrol prices which is in cents and the exchange rate (AUD/USD). The right hand side is the ratio of $/L to AUD/bbl, I'll explain later.

The fundamental lines are the USD/bbl (cost of oil which is always quoted in the news), and the pump price of ULP (AUD/L). You can see that in general, the lines sort of follow each other except for the last 3 months, where the price of oil has dropped but the cost of petrol has risen.

Now the next argument thrown to us is the exchange rate. I've plotted that (AUD/USD) in cents as the yellow line. I've used this to convert the cost of oil to Australian dollars (AUD/bbl). You can see that this line in general follows the USD/bbl. Again the final 3 months contradict the rise in petrol prices.

Now for the last line. Keep in mind that this line is most likely an oversimplification, but I feel is still a good general indicator. It illustrates that ratio between the cost of petrol (AUD/L), and the cost of oil in AUD (AUD/bbl). In theory, this line should remain fairly constant. It illustrates how much money someone, somewhere is making. Whether this is the petrol companies (IMO most likely), government taxes, or increased exploration costs/running costs, etc (something that IMO should not have changed too significantly, especially not in the last 2 months or so!).

Anyway, the lower this line is, the better for us as petrol consumers. Now for the bad news. According to this really simple explanation, we are currently getting a better deal than in 06. You can see that this line is significantly lower this last few months. However the last 2 month, this line has increased significantly, almost reaching the previous average. What caused this general drop from May 07, I'm not sure. It may be possible that someone, somewhere, has indeed had smaller margins this last 12 months, by keeping petrol prices lower than they could have in order to avoid a total backlash. And only now, that oil costs have dropped, they are returning to historical average margins. I don't have data for beyond Dec 05, so I cant make a really long reaching assessment.

Anyway, based on the last 3 months, the cost of petrol should be around 25cpl cheaper. But based on the ratio historically, we should in fact be paying about 5cpl less.

Sorry guys, this looks like it may be more complicated than purely profiteering petrol companies. Also keep in mind that this analysis assumes that the cost of producing petrol is purely based upon the price of oil, when in fact it should have more factors (electricity and labour for one). If I where to take these into account it may swing the picture into our favour. I'd love to be wrong, if someone can show me better numbers than I have then I'll happily concede.

[jweb]

Originally Posted by Bill M

Thats what some oracles forecast, does anyone have an explanation as to why pump prices are over $1.50 a litre when the barrel price is under $80 US? I cannot accept the fall in the $AU is all that is keeping 91 octane over $1.50 a litre! :
cheers
Bill.

Its because of the exchange rate of the Australian dollar,the value has depreciated meaning imports cost more.The value at the moment i believe is around 70C to 1 american dollar