September sales numbers: Drive.com

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by jpd80

And you're not listening either,

Ford is not overproducing by 13% because.......... those vehicles are not being built.

I know that & you’re not listing!!! "IF".. "IF".. They were at full production (of the current line rate) they'd be building 13% more..


The last time Ford sold more than 4,600 local cars was June 2010.. That has been 15 months of down days needed to balance to current rates.. As a bean counter that would concern me... Hence me underlining point.. SALES NEED TO LIFT!!! consistently over a long period of time!!


When Ford start selling 4,600 local cars constantly, then I'll be happy!! And so will the poor workers at the plant, living with down days..

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

I know that & you’re not listing!!! "IF".. "IF".. They were at full production (of the current line rate) they'd be building 13% more..
.

But they are not, the biggest cost is having cars sitting in the paddock, not wages.
The point is not making cars that are not required, wages are a minor part of that,
rebalancing all the time costs a heck of a lot.

The last time Ford sold more than 4,600 local cars was June 2010.. That has been 15 months of down days needed to balance to current rates.. As a bean counter that would concern me... Hence me underlining point.. SALES NEED TO LIFT!!! consistently over a long period of time!!

And yet through all of that Ford still made a profit.
Holden, LOL...had ..get this... two shifts on half work / half wages for months right up to local cruze.
Because they couldn't afford the redundancy costs after G8 was cancelled, it would have compounded their losses.
Holden also knew the market would come back to them, just like what Ford is doing now with down days.

When Ford start selling 4,600 local cars constantly, then I'll be happy!! And so will the poor workers at the plant, living with down days.

You need to get over this idea that down day are bad. I know several workers at the plant,
none of them are disappointed for being paid half wages for doing nothing....

Ford is controlling costs, that is the most important thing and down days are acceptable tool to do that.

[Joe5619]

A profit is always better than a lost, but 24.9M profit on revenues of 3.3B & an OP result of 0.7% is a crap result in any accountants mind!!

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

A profit is always better than a lost, but 24.9M profit on revenues of 3.3B & an OP result of 0.7% is a crap result in any accountants mind!!

Yes it is, isn't it.....makes you wonder doesn't it.

Can you not see the elephant in the room?

$2.2 billion revenue and tax applies to just over $26 million of it,
I wish I had accountants like Ford.......

[g220ba]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

A profit is always better than a lost, but 24.9M profit on revenues of 3.3B & an OP result of 0.7% is a crap result in any accountants mind!!

Perhaps any accountant that doesn't have access to where the money's being spent. I think it's very nieve for anyone to comment on any companies financial situation when they have no idea what their business plan is or where the goal posts are set.

I know nothing of ford finances or any other companies finances but i would be very nieve to comment on such things when the only finances i care about my own.

Ford are doing what they feel they need for the moment and they understand what they're doing and how they need to do it. Very few people that access this site would have any idea what ford are actually doing.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by g220ba

Perhaps any accountant that doesn't have access to where the money's being spent. I think it's very nieve for anyone to comment on any companies financial situation when they have no idea what their business plan is or where the goal posts are set.

I know nothing of ford finances or any other companies finances but i would be very nieve to comment on such things when the only finances i care about my own.

Ford are doing what they feel they need for the moment and they understand what they're doing and how they need to do it. Very few people that access this site would have any idea what ford are actually doing.

Poor old Joe see the world in black and white, he doesn't realise that there are a lot of "games' going on
and that all isn't as it seems. Ford Motor is absolutely ruthless at extracting profit still see fit
to allow FoA to run as they are through all the global changes, you can bet for sure that the image
of FoA barely making ends meat is just that, an image, their contribution to other regions in terms
of engineering and cost transfers is immense.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Boss the way Diesel Territory is going off (now 80%), you'd have to think a diesel Falcon would do incredibly well too...

But still Ecoboost 2.0 will test the waters, I'd just prefer to see the diesel in there....

Passenger cars are different to SUV's though. SUV's are around 50% diesel, and passenger cars are like 5% or something, so that needs to be taken into consideration.

Diesel does not have anywhere near the attraction in passenger cars as it does SUV's, which might have something to do with the fact that passenger vehicles are generally a lot better on fuel than equivelent engined SUV's.

Based on that you'd have to assume that a diesel Falcon would not have anywhere near the attraction as the diesel Territory, although if Ford had the cash to engineer it for Falcon and research showed them it had potential then it would probably be worth a shot, but they probably have more than enough engines in the range at the moment and probably don't want to push it even further as it just increases further R&D costs into the future.

They are probably itching to see how the ecoboost 4 will go first.

[Chilliman]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Poor old Joe see the world in black and white, he doesn't realise that there are a lot of "games' going on
and that all isn't as it seems. Ford Motor is absolutely ruthless at extracting profit still see fit
to allow FoA to run as they are through all the global changes, you can bet for sure that the image
of FoA barely making ends meat is just that, an image, their contribution to other regions in terms
of engineering and cost transfers is immense.

Coming from an accounting background myself, and having worked for companies that have overseas head-offices: transferring profits to lower taxing countries is a time-honoured, if somewhat dubious practice

And yes sometimes its a fine line between tax minimisation (legal) and tax evasion (illegal).

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Passenger cars are different to SUV's though. SUV's are around 50% diesel, and passenger cars are like 5% or something, so that needs to be taken into consideration.

Diesel does not have anywhere near the attraction in passenger cars as it does SUV's, which might have something to do with the fact that passenger vehicles are generally a lot better on fuel than equivelent engined SUV's.

Based on that you'd have to assume that a diesel Falcon would not have anywhere near the attraction as the diesel Territory, although if Ford had the cash to engineer it for Falcon and research showed them it had potential then it would probably be worth a shot, but they probably have more than enough engines in the range at the moment and probably don't want to push it even further as it just increases further R&D costs into the future.

They are probably itching to see how the ecoboost 4 will go first.

Agreed, the EB I-4 is extremely interesting prospect. I would be interested to know
what proportion of Fiesta, Focus and Mondeo import vehicles are Diesel vs Petrol....

Ford also has to be careful that engine options add to I-6 Falcon production, not replace it.
I see the V6 diesel as an engine that could potentially replace a lot of I-6 sales but does
Ford really want to do that, especially at the moment when the next car is being planned?
Best to leave thing as they are and look at engines that add to production..

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Poor old Joe see the world in black and white, he doesn't realise that there are a lot of "games' going on
and that all isn't as it seems. Ford Motor is absolutely ruthless at extracting profit still see fit
to allow FoA to run as they are through all the global changes, you can bet for sure that the image
of FoA barely making ends meat is just that, an image, their contribution to other regions in terms
of engineering and cost transfers is immense.

And those same games can be used to "show" a profit when one does not really exsist!! It works both ways.. But as one else said, we don't work in Finance Ford, so we don't really know!!

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

And those same games can be used to "show" a profit when one does not really exsist!! It works both ways.. But as one else said, we don't work in Finance Ford, so we don't really know!!

Some of us do.
We do know that Ford's chiefs have an intolerance for vehicles that make no profit
and that $2.2 billion revenue was made to almost disappear in terms of tax liability.

Things aren't as simple as they seem....

FoA is actually carrying just under $500 million internal debt that they are managing and paying down.
That and legal transfers of income back to Thailand and Europe account for near $800 million...

Do you want me to continue?

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Some of us do.

So you are telling me you work in the Ford Finance department??? If that is correct, then I'll shut up!!

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

So you are telling me you work in the Ford Finance department??? If that is correct, then I'll shut up!!

LOL, I'd say it just to make you shut up.

There is so much available on public record if you're prepared to dig,
most people swallow every negative thrown out by the press.

Having friends helps too...


And for the record, I was answering your negative throw away:

But as one else said, we don't work in Finance Ford, so we don't really know!!

I say that we do know by Ford's continued commitment and their rigorous code:
that every vehicle must make a profit - that's not just a goal, that's Mulally's direct order.

I'm surprised that you really believe FoA with $2.2 billion revenue only earns $26 million profit...

But of course none of us works in Ford's financing...:rolleyes

[JG34JA]

Originally Posted by Gobes32

I agree, so what is the solution?

Hmmm, so the requirement is 660 extra sales or so. Falcon/Territory platforms are what we've got to work with. Apology in advance that I will mention some niches that may actually require some capital and design input, I know some don't like this idea for FOA. Off the top of my head:

Falcon Wagon. The most obvious solution really. EcoLPI/I6/EcoBoost, 6 seaters. Previously did 400-800 sales and was about 10-20% of Falcon volume. Build on sedan wheelbase but go for volume of cargo rather than "sportswagon" - no natural competitor, tool also for:
Falcon Panel van, build on wagon architecture with different upper shell/no rear doors, EcoLPI/I6/EcoBoost again : no natural competitor.
Diesel Falcon Ute, no natural competitor.
RTV Ute option, great market niche.
EcoLPI Territory, 5 seater only, better than nothing.
XR8, XR8 ute
And, things they are doing - EcoLPI and EcoBoost 4cyl Falcon, Diesel Territory, to exploit Govt fleet requirements/running costs and private buyer demand respectively.

So, you don't have to do all of these things, maybe one or a combination. It seems that proliferation of new brands being sold in Australia has taken out some of these niches - however, I am noticing dark trends emerging toward protectionism and currency/trade wars in international politics at present and restrictions on international trade may be a thing of the future. In this context it make sense to get a lot of variants off one locally made platform, like in the 1970s.

In the days of Bill Bourke, those extra 660 sales would be seen as a challenge...

[kevino]

Your market ideas are 10-15 years out of date. Petrol is heading towards $1.60 a litre. And even a diesel in a heavy car is using a lot of fuel. Really I do 700-900 kms a week , I dont want to pay upwards of $110 a week on fuel and I think most drivers agree.
Big heavy cars are a shrinking market.
There is not a demand for 1980/2000 big cars any more, its a reality.

[Gobes32]

Originally Posted by JG34JA

Hmmm, so the requirement is 660 extra sales or so. Falcon/Territory platforms are what we've got to work with.

I honestly think Ford are of the opinion that EcoLPI and Ecoboost will fill that gap. Time will tell.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by kevino

Your market ideas are 10-15 years out of date. Petrol is heading towards $1.60 a litre. And even a diesel in a heavy car is using a lot of fuel. Really I do 700-900 kms a week , I dont want to pay upwards of $110 a week on fuel and I think most drivers agree.
Big heavy cars are a shrinking market.
There is not a demand for 1980/2000 big cars any more, its a reality.

What evidence is there of that?

I agree it has shrunk, and people are looking at SUV's and Pickups more these days, but look at the commy and Falcon sales combined, and Ford/GMH are not the only ones in the world building these cars.

LPi is one very big answer for your fuel bill issue, unless there is some cliche excuse why thats not a good solution?

[Franco Cozzo]

Ecoboost I4 has similar torque curve like a diesel, except it maintains it just about all the way through, will be an interesting car.

[Road_Warrior]

Originally Posted by kevino

Your market ideas are 10-15 years out of date. Petrol is heading towards $1.60 a litre. And even a diesel in a heavy car is using a lot of fuel. Really I do 700-900 kms a week , I dont want to pay upwards of $110 a week on fuel and I think most drivers agree.
Big heavy cars are a shrinking market.
There is not a demand for 1980/2000 big cars any more, its a reality.

The fact that Holden is still setting upwards of 3500 Commodores per month suggests to me that there is still a comfortable market for large thirsty cars. Commodore's numbers have been pretty stagnant at that level for most of this year.

[Ford_The_Win]

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

The fact that Holden is still setting upwards of 3500 Commodores per month suggests to me that there is still a comfortable market for large thirsty cars. Commodore's numbers have been pretty stagnant at that level for most of this year.

But couldn't you argue that although it is still selling, they were selling over twice that many Commodores only ten years ago, and with two thirds + of sales going to fleet buyers, it's hardly a strong market. Back in the XF era around 50% of Falcon sales were to fleets...but that still meant 3,000 Falcons a month going to private buyers, a phenomenal amount considering what they sell today. How many private buyers are there now, a few hundred per month at best? The private market has abandoned these sort of cars just about.

[jpd80]

Even though Falcon and Commodore are both large cars, their market demographic groups are clearly different.
Does that mean that Falcon should concentrate more on Ecoboost I-4 leaving the V8 market to Holden?
Should both big cars be looking at more fuel efficient diesel ingoing options?

(Sorry, more questions than answers)

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Ford_The_Win

But couldn't you argue that although it is still selling, they were selling over twice that many Commodores only ten years ago, and with two thirds + of sales going to fleet buyers, it's hardly a strong market. Back in the XF era around 50% of Falcon sales were to fleets...but that still meant 3,000 Falcons a month going to private buyers, a phenomenal amount considering what they sell today. How many private buyers are there now, a few hundred per month at best? The private market has abandoned these sort of cars just about.

10 years ago the auto market was completely different and cannot be compared. have a look at the amount of choice today on the market, and the quality and options you get in smaller cars, and you soon see why the large car segment is smaller. there is a car out there for every lifestyle you can think of, and then some that the advertisers dream up.

tariffs have also been all but removed so that cars coming in from offshore are priced well below what the aussie auto industry can achieve. to make cars at similar cost, they need volume.

plane travel is a lot cheaper now so many families are realising they don't need that large car but can make do with a mid car.

many factors as to why the large car segment is smaller, but if you ask me, it has pretty much stopped dropping in the last year or so.

personally, i don't think the 'doom and gloom' on here is as bad at FoA headquarters. also, people constantly compare everythng to holden, but they are a much bigger operation and NEED to sell more to cover that.

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

They are probably itching to see how the ecoboost 4 will go first.

So am I. FGII XT ecoboost seems like a pretty interesting fleet vehicle for 4cyl only fleets.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by vztrt

So am I. FGII XT ecoboost seems like a pretty interesting fleet vehicle for 4cyl only fleets.

And suddenly 3.0 V6 Omega doesn't look so flash to government fleet buyers anymore..

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by jpd80

And suddenly 3.0 V6 Omega doesn't look so flash to government fleet buyers anymore..

Thats gonna be a tough one because of the no replacement for displacement mentality. You would have noticed it on here a once or twice.

[MrZ]

Hey Russ what's going on, you normally publish the monthly sales statistics in the technical rescources section, but I don't see September's sales there yet, and it's almost the end of the month?

[flappist]

Originally Posted by jpd80

LOL, I'd say it just to make you shut up.

There is so much available on public record if you're prepared to dig,
most people swallow every negative thrown out by the press.

Having friends helps too...


And for the record, I was answering your negative throw away:

I say that we do know by Ford's continued commitment and their rigorous code:
that every vehicle must make a profit - that's not just a goal, that's Mulally's direct order.

I'm surprised that you really believe FoA with $2.2 billion revenue only earns $26 million profit...

But of course none of us works in Ford's financing...:rolleyes

Ford has a finance department in Brisbane, where you live and work?

[Smoke Pursuit]

Originally Posted by flappist

Ford has a finance department in Brisbane, where you live and work?

What ford credit? Lol

[russellw]

Sorry about the delay (it's been a busy month) but the graphical stats for September are now uploaded in the Tech portal.

Cheers
Russ