Ford cutting EV production

[simon varley]

most EVs are significantly over priced compared to the ICE variants. Not so the Chinese crap. GWM and MG start at about $40k.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

Whaaat?! Got into the issue a bit more on a Saturday arvo. It appears EV demand is not only dropping hard in the US, but Germany and the UK as well, causing idling plants.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTmeNizYWG4

The following channel has similar episodes to Chevy for Ford, Honda, Jeep - the vids sound like they are giving EV away for affordable ICE, for now:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFszQsmqH3w

(at 2:13 they show an Aussie Barra when mentioning Mary Barra, I lol'd)

So what's going on? What's the truth, for EV sales are increasing, the Chinese are increasing their exports as their internal demand softened after Evergrand etc, Western politicians seem to be walking back the ICE bans by 2035, US domestic manufacturers are idling their EV plants to stop cash burn, Tesla is expanding greatly, Tesla is also dropping prices in the US, maybe we have a recession coming knocking internationally as high interest rates slow consumption (not in Australia mate! safe as houses!)...?

It sure is a disruptive moment in the auto industry.

Don't get too caught up with the Propaganda machine. All car demand has dropped due to the economy hurting. And given the price point of EVs, they'll be hit more than cheaper ICE cars.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by kypez

Don't get too caught up with the Propaganda machine. All car demand has dropped due to the economy hurting.

People have short memories. It wasnt that long ago some ICE manufacturers were closing factories, sitting on huge stockpiles of cars, or getting bailed out.

[GT1533]

Originally Posted by kypez

Don't get too caught up with the Propaganda machine. All car demand has dropped due to the economy.

Not so. US passenger vehicle sales are up 12.5% versus last year, and that’s with the UAW strikes.


https://www.marklines.com/en/statist...n-usa-by-month

[kypez]

According to your link, all EVs sales are up bar Karma.

[jpd80]

Lower USA Sales of ICE vehicles is understandable due to strikes and stood down workers,
more than buyers going off the boil. So maybe November will be a better month….

Hearing that Ford Aust has hundreds of orders for Mach E, around 60% are the high series GTs (over $100k).
I guess some people want what they want but a lot of Mach E buyers are new to Ford, not just avid fans.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Lower USA Sales of ICE vehicles is understandable due to strikes and stood down workers, more than buyers going off the boil.

Hearing that Ford Aust has hundreds of orders for Mach E, around 60% are the high series GTs (over $100k).
I guess some people want what they want but a lot of Mach E buyers are new to Ford, not just avid fans.

First wave. Well be interesting to see how to goes in 12 months.

I wish it all the success because I do like the car.

[kevino]

Originally Posted by simon varley

most EVs are significantly over priced compared to the ICE variants. Not so the Chinese crap. GWM and MG start at about $40k.

You are an expert with experience
Seriously
What do you think of the Mg and Byd electrics?

[kypez]

Originally Posted by kevino

You are an expert with experience

Seriously

What do you think of the Mg and Byd electrics?

I know it wasn't directed at me but I'll say that BYD and MG have a lot more experience needed. Example, the charging speeds offered are very slow (less than half Tesla). Tesla gets more range, faster charging and performance from a BYD battery than BYD themselves! Dynamically, they're not great either but they're cheap.

They also iterate very quickly so they'll catch up and surpass the rest soon.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by kypez

First wave. Well be interesting to see how to goes in 12 months.

I wish it all the success because I do like the car.

It feels like when Endura arrived here with highish prices and had already failed in Europe.
IMO was brought her to get sales to recover RHD development costs from European stuff up.

I consider high price of Mach E the same, they’re loading the cost of RHD Development on them
and that sucks….

[kypez]

Originally Posted by jpd80

It feels like when Endura arrived here with highish prices and had already failed in Europe.

IMO was brought her to get sales to recover RHD development costs from European stuff up.



I consider high price of Mach E the same, they’re loading the cost of RHD Development on them

and that sucks….

Funnily, I wrote about the Endura in my response and deleted it. 100% Endura vibes with this one.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by kypez

Funnily, I wrote about the Endura in my response and deleted it. 100% Endura vibes with this one.

And even with sales in the hundreds, Mach E should be quite profitable, especially if interest in GT holds up

[Sprintey]

This is actually a thing. I can't yet determine if it's an inflection point or just a blip on an inevitable change in technology. Yes, I remember unsold cars in times gone by, and even remember unsold new AU's by the motorway in Vic back in 2002-3, and recession risks are rising in the US and EU although nobody told 1/3 of Australia who are on a RAM and caravan and cafe and overseas trip binge.

https://cleantechnica.com/2023/11/02...ngst-over-evs/

Worth a read, and sympathetic to EVs. The author spends the last bit of the article suggesting more education is needed to convert consumers - so a question for you all, are we actually seeing the free market say something different?

[Sprintey]

And here's Toyota having a go at EV resale values (well, they would I guess)

https://www.drive.com.au/news/toyota...resale-values/

"“Researchers say this is partly due to a market correction that has seen manufacturers dropping (electric car) sticker prices to boost flagging sales.

“Beyond that, used-car market experts suggest the trend of higher rates of depreciation is expected to continue.

“As a result, we’re seeing (car subscription services) shut their doors to electric vehicles. They’re too exposed. The (financial) risk is too big.

“And you’ll be hard-pressed to find a fleet management organisation that will provide an operating lease on (an electric vehicle). A finance lease, yes; but unlikely an operating lease at any sort of competitive rate.”

Industry analysts say it is not financially viable for customers if the resale values of electric cars continue to plummet at their current rates, because the selling price of the car at the end of a lease or a loan could be less than the final payout figure."

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

This is actually a thing. I can't yet determine if it's an inflection point or just a blip on an inevitable change in technology. Yes, I remember unsold cars in times gone by, and even remember unsold new AU's by the motorway in Vic back in 2002-3, and recession risks are rising in the US and EU although nobody told 1/3 of Australia who are on a RAM and caravan and cafe and overseas trip binge.

https://cleantechnica.com/2023/11/02...ngst-over-evs/

Worth a read, and sympathetic to EVs. The author spends the last bit of the article suggesting more education is needed to convert consumers - so a question for you all, are we actually seeing the free market say something different?

I could make a Model 3 work I reckon,

At the moment I'm alternating between my ute and Fiesta ST for commuting to work, depending on where I'm going if I'm out in the forest or I'm in the workshop.

Model 3 would work quite well for the workshop or 'on road' work around Melbourne, I'd just want to keep it charged up every night I reckon in case I end up doing some SE suburbs to western suburbs jobs where I'm crossing Melbourne, I'm doing 120-200km a day at the moment depending on where I'm working for the on-road stuff.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

so a question for you all, are we actually seeing the free market say something different?

Problem with a free market is that people aren't educated enough at times to fully appreciate the impacts of their free choices.

With fuel going nuts, it's hurting inflation. It also makes govts dependant on securing fuel for the masses. If anything goes wrong, they'll blindly blame govts without understanding how fuel is secured.

EVs are great for govts in that they can better manage the economy and reduce dependency on overseas fuel. All the free market will do is complain that the govt didn't help them do what they wanted to do.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

I could make a Model 3 work I reckon,



At the moment I'm alternating between my ute and Fiesta ST for commuting to work, depending on where I'm going if I'm out in the forest or I'm in the workshop.



Model 3 would work quite well for the workshop or 'on road' work around Melbourne, I'd just want to keep it charged up every night I reckon in case I end up doing some SE suburbs to western suburbs jobs where I'm crossing Melbourne.

Mate lives in the central coast and was not sure about EVs. Especially given he goes to remote QLD to visit his mum on 2000 hectares.

Long story short, he borrowed my car to test out the drive and now owns a Model 3 LR. The standard 3 would've sufficed but he wanted that extra range just in case. He loves it.

Wait for the update if you do decide to get one. Much improved car with the base model befitting from big improvements.

[Adamz Ghia]

The way I see it is humans are creatures of habit. We, as a collective, do not like change. Governments and auto manufacturers are asking us to change our over 100 year old ways of thinking and transition to a completely new way of driving, and living. But then to top it off, they are asking us to pay extra to do it.

Using Ford as an example, Mach E should have been priced the same or slightly less then ICE equivalents. Same goes with hybrids. Why would I go from the convenience of ICE, what I already know, to a totally new technology that is foreign to me, and right now no where near as convenient, and pay extra to do so?

[Sprintey]

All good answers. It's a fascinating time, I don't recall seeing the auto industry in such turmoil since the GFC.

I would add that the free market has a wisdom of it's own - sometimes 'crowdsourcing' the result provides a very accurate picture of reality. It does so as it takes the sum total of all minds willing to profer an opinion, or who have considered an event or thing. For example, online bet sites often pick political outcomes well; the sum total of the entire knowledge of financial entities is reflected in their current prices; and even interest rate likelihoods for tomorrow afternoon can be predicted by the sum of participant buying and selling action - which is wild as they are anticipating what a central planner will say tomorrow!

What I think I'm seeing here is a divergence between an outcome that has been repeated as inevitable for some time; and that is legislated as such (so an easy investment bet, you would think), and actual actions by huge automakers - absolutely intriguing. Why would they do so? They have stated it's falling demand. And yet stats are showing growing EV sales, for the reasons you guys have mentioned. Someone's going to cry 'uncle' eventually.

History is replete with tales of misallocations of capital on a grand scale. I wonder how the legacy automakers are going to go... are their customers driving them to a good, or bad choice?

Franco I can see Model 3's working so well for many people's needs. About 20% of the cost of ICE to do the same too I think.

[kypez]

Policy drives behaviour. Add LCT and no tax breaks on dual cab utes and I'd love to see if the numbers continue the way they have been.

The basic issue is that it is not a free market due to policies. Policy drives how the market behaves.

[Sprintey]

Absolutely agree that there isn't a true free market as of policy intervention, in so many areas. Within that framework, people follow what they believe, and 'crowd source' solutions - maybe that is a better term than going full Adam Smith.

Given that, why are we seeing the customers fall back for Ford, VW, Jeep & Stellantis, GM in their EV offerings? Price/economy/product/competitor behaviour/customer psychology/something else?

[PooDog]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

Absolutely agree that there isn't a true free market as of policy intervention, in so many areas. Within that framework, people follow what they believe, and 'crowd source' solutions - maybe that is a better term than going full Adam Smith.

Given that, why are we seeing the customers fall back for Ford, VW, Jeep & Stellantis, GM in their EV offerings? Price/economy/product/competitor behaviour/customer psychology/something else?

Because most of those manufacturers make average EV,s , average range ,average battery spec , charge times

I guess people look at them and think how long defore they're out dated .? ....resale ?

Look at Hyundai how much has there reputation been damaged by all the battery fires from their LG batteries? ,.....It's like they've all made half hearted attempts at it because they've all thought they have to have an EV to offer in their range ? ......they're also not proven reliability wise , most are new designs and they expect you to pay a premium for them ?

[Adamz Ghia]

I’m currently in Orlando, and was talking to my Uber driver last night who was driving a Tesla Model Y. He also owns an F150 Lightning and in the 6 months he’s owned it, he’s already lost 50 miles of maximum range, and Ford has told him that is normal. He is not happy with the car at all. He expected range to drop when towing, but the amount it drops makes the it next to useless.

[Sprintey]

In this case it then looks like if you can't be at the cutting edge of battery tech, don't bother coming.

Off topic re: market intervention

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/so...ntil-june-2024

The crowd responds to the shock ban on short selling as the exchange says "This will stop thing going down!" Financial Squid Game for participants...

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Adamz Ghia

I’m currently in Orlando, and was talking to my Uber driver last night who was driving a Tesla Model Y. He also owns an F150 Lightning and in the 6 months he’s owned it, he’s already lost 50 miles of maximum range, and Ford has told him that is normal. He is not happy with the car at all. He expected range to drop when towing, but the amount it drops makes the it next to useless.

That's a big drop especially in such a warm part of the world! That shouldn't be acceptable at all! I've lost 40 kms in 6 years and 160,000 kms.

I wonder if it's lost range or expectation. Like my Everest said it would do 8.5 litres/100. It hasn't come close to that number ever city or highway. So it's not lost range per say, just inaccurate testing processes (though the US method of testing is more accurate than Europe or even our own)

[simon varley]

Originally Posted by kevino

You are an expert with experience
Seriously
What do you think of the Mg and Byd electrics?

lets put it this way - I hired an MG when I was in the UK. Apart from being a gutless, underpowered, random steering, noisy pos, the traffic sign recognition on the dash, was different to what it showed on the nav display.

[Syndrome]

https://fordauthority.com/2023/06/mo...ehicles-study/

Not surprised.

[Sprintey]

This is what I'm getting at Syndrome - are we seeing a shift in psychology of the purchasers, or hardening of it against the EV?

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

This is what I'm getting at Syndrome - are we seeing a shift in psychology of the purchasers, or hardening of it against the EV?

Reality bites?

[Syndrome]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Reality bites?

Will these companies who drank too much of the Kool-Aid come cap-in-hand begging governments for bailouts or changes in legislation mandating that we must buy EVs?

Toyota's stance looks better with each passing month.