Covid 19 -

[Romulus]

Originally Posted by lumen8

Campbell Newman announces Liberal Democrats Covid-19 policy this morning:

https://www.ldp.org.au/covid_policy

Setting an end date is good. It gives those who want to vaccinate the opportunity to do so and the rest of society the ability to get on with it. No mandatory % of the population should be reached; we're seeing 'breakthrough' cases (aka vaccine failure) in high vaccinated countries like Israel. ADE is another issue for the high vaccination rates, we'll see how that pans out over the next 12-24 months.

Most people aren't believing the perpetual state of fear governments are trying to drum into the citizenry anymore. 18 months on and the world is getting on with it.

[.:4:.]

Originally Posted by Itsme

I go as far as saying the public themselves are at fault especially the ones who do not heed the stay at home rules, no wonder this virus spreading rapidly.

Then theres the handfull of people who 'think' its a good idea to protest when there are record cases.
So this is just my view, why would you potentially make the issue that you are protesting worse? To the government it falls on deaf ears. May aswell do an online petition, no one gets arrested, no seeming waste of police resources, and either way it will still fall on deaf ears.

[Romulus]

Originally Posted by .:4:.

Then theres the handfull of people who 'think' its a good idea to protest when there are record cases.
So this is just my view, why would you potentially make the issue that you are protesting worse? To the government it falls on deaf ears. May aswell do an online petition, no one gets arrested, no seeming waste of police resources, and either way it will still fall on deaf ears.

Those who marched for their freedoms yesterday are unlikely to go test tested for Covid. Did the BLM protest last year increase cases?

[zilo]

Originally Posted by George V

Pfizer was available in NSW to healthcare staff at least from June 2021.

Cheers,
George V

Pfizer was delivered to doctors/surgeons in my family in January 2021.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT August 21st 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

894 new cases for Australia and 4 deaths so the CMR is 2.268%. NSW recorded another daily high of 832 cases - also a new record Australian high.

24 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.869%.

The UK had a lower 31,783 cases yesterday and lower 104 deaths for a CMR of 2.045%.

A higher 191,366 new cases in the USA yesterday and higher 1,101 deaths sees CMR at 1.677%.

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Global cases pass 212M, the last 1M in 1 day;
Europe passes 54M cases;
North America passes 46M cases;
The Philippines moves above Iraq for total case numbers;

Dominica (370);
Sri Lanka (3,884);
Vietnam (11,321); and
Japan (25,877)

... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[.:4:.]

Originally Posted by Romulus

Those who marched for their freedoms yesterday are unlikely to go test tested for Covid. Did the BLM protest last year increase cases?

Thats a little different in my view as back then testing rates were much lower. So detection rates were also lower. Maybe things were less prolific with transmission last year, but in the past few days, and im reffering to sydney predominantly, whens the last time you heard testing and cases are down? Yeah, vaccinations are up too, but just going off news reports, my interpritation is you can still get it, but its a lot less likely to land you in hospital if vaccinated. And yes i understand the news like to try and make a story out of everything, but they cannot step too far out of line.

[russellw]

NSW recorded 830 cases in the current reporting period, the highest number of locally acquired cases in a day but not quite the overall high of 832 yesterday.

The actual data is about level with the trend line at the moment with the biggest concern being the 10-day average case growth rate of 1.101. By comparison, Victoria at the same stage was down to 0.992 although they did peak at 1.160 a couple of weeks earlier.

[ford71V8]

How many days til we see Australia on Russell's recorded new highs List...?

Huge respect and appreciation for your daily posts in this thread Russell.

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by ford71V8

Huge respect and appreciation for your daily posts in this thread Russell.

^^^^ Plus one to this ^^^^

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by ford71V8

How many days til we see Australia on Russell's recorded new highs List...?

I don’t think we necessarily will. My gut feeling is we’re close to topping out on case numbers. If we start to see successive days of 2000+ new cases in NSW I expect a coup and martial law to follow shortly thereafter.

[DJR-351]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

........If we start to see successive days of 2000+ new cases in NSW I expect a coup and martial law to follow shortly thereafter.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

I don’t think we necessarily will. My gut feeling is we’re close to topping out on case numbers. If we start to see successive days of 2000+ new cases in NSW I expect a coup and martial law to follow shortly thereafter.

What is the population of the heavily restricted LGAs? How long before everyone has either had the jab or already caught the virus.

And also can you catch Delta twice? So will case counts start reducing once the majority of residents have caught it. Jabbed people can still test positive, so that won't affect case counts.

I feel 2000s would go very quickly and we'll be into the 3s and 4s in no time. See how we skipped the 700s altogether? Hope I'm wrong, hope we don't see 1000+ at all.

Originally Posted by Romulus

Those who marched for their freedoms yesterday are unlikely to go test tested for Covid. Did the BLM protest last year increase cases?

That march put 9 cops in hospital, and gave gov an excuse to extend or apply even tighter restrictions. With that many mystery cases floating around, they can hypothesise that it came from anywhere, including the "march".

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

What is the population of the heavily restricted LGAs? How long before everyone has either had the jab or already caught the virus.

I suppose these questions come as we get the impression that the virus is truly rampant. Relatively, sensibly speaking compared to the rest of the world it isn't - even in the worst LGA's. (Yet!!!) The proof is in the positive test rate, One in 240 yesterday and that would be skewed with close contact statistically taking up a lot of the tests.

Out of 100 people that have either had the virus or vaccine, 99 would be the vaccine. (299 out of 300 statewide). So vaccination is the only real way we get there. And that will be that Late November timeframe. Those catching the virus wont change it by more than a few days to a week.

Gaining any form or herd immunity from actually catching the virus before being vaccinated would result in tens of thousands of deaths.

[DRU842]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

What is the population of the heavily restricted LGAs? How long before everyone has either had the jab or already caught the virus.

Here you go: https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/find...ases-and-tests

206,193 new tests in the 24 hours leading up to 8pm 21 of Aug

830 new cases in the 24 hours leading up to 8pm 21st of Aug

[xkxlxm]

On the news tonight: there's a new vaccination hub at the old Ford factory in Broadmeadows. They had a couple of XCs and an XB there.

[98TLS]

Originally Posted by .:4:.

Then theres the handfull of people who 'think' its a good idea to protest when there are record cases.
So this is just my view, why would you potentially make the issue that you are protesting worse? To the government it falls on deaf ears. May aswell do an online petition, no one gets arrested, no seeming waste of police resources, and either way it will still fall on deaf ears.

Because to be fair there to stupid to be labelled idiots.

[Metdevil]

Originally Posted by 98TLS

Because to be fair they're too stupid to be labelled idiots.

Fixed that for you.

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

What is the population of the heavily restricted LGAs? How long before everyone has either had the jab or already caught the virus…

The subject “areas of concern” have a population around 2,4M and capture a lot of medium/high density housing where occupancy per dwelling is more likely to be high.

[tweeked]

The Doherty Institute gets my vote for dumb academic institution of the year.

Quote ""The roadmap is all built around the fact that we can open up when we are able to manage the virus circulating in the community," he said.

If that is not an oxymoronic statement I don't know what is. He is basically saying we can open up as long as we lock down.

This group of professional academics apparently consider even the current 800 odd cases currently in NSW beyond what they modelled when they provided the Government with its 70 and 80% targets. Did they not see what was happening everywhere else in the world, or even use a bit of common sense in thinking what happens when you open up?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-...rain/100390966

[BENT_8]

Monday and Tuesday results tend to be either a slight decline or a stabilising, Im predicting 1k+ cases on Wednesday

[russellw]

Originally Posted by ford71V8

How many days til we see Australia on Russell's recorded new highs List...?

Huge respect and appreciation for your daily posts in this thread Russell.

Thanks for the kind words.

As it happens (I didn't notice) the 894 cases in Australia yesterday actually set a new daily high and the previous high was the 747 a couple of days earlier. Other than that, thanks to differences in close off times for my two data sources, the previous high for the country (midnight to midnight) had been the 723 cases on 5th August last year although if we use the reported figures for each State on that day with their different closing times that was actually 739 - 725 of which were Victoria.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by tweeked

The Doherty Institute gets my vote for dumb academic institution of the year.

Quote ""The roadmap is all built around the fact that we can open up when we are able to manage the virus circulating in the community," he said.

If that is not an oxymoronic statement I don't know what is. He is basically saying we can open up as long as we lock down.

This group of professional academics apparently consider even the current 800 odd cases currently in NSW beyond what they modelled when they provided the Government with its 70 and 80% targets. Did they not see what was happening everywhere else in the world, or even use a bit of common sense in thinking what happens when you open up?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-...rain/100390966

Have been thinking about this one for a bit. My assumption to begin with is that these variables and numbers are being crunched by some pretty smart people, so I'm giving them some benefit of the doubt.

From what I can gather, the modelling's goal was all to do with keeping our health care system from being overwhelmed. So starting with low cases as a base, and health care under no stress, with 70-80% vaxxed, they anticipate that we can open up as outlined in the phased plan. Any outbreaks can be contained locally and our health care system would still be ok.

But if we start with a "high" number of cases and it being so widely spread, our health care system already stretched, opening up as intended could tip it over the edge. I'm guessing questions now need to be asked on how much can we open up if, say, we start with 1000+ new cases a day across two of our most populous states, and with it being so widely spread, and our hospital "just" coping. I have a feeling they will rejig the phased restriction settings, rather than the % vaccination number.

I don't think anyone predicted we would be seeing 800+ a day cases again, and with the numbers we are seeing in hospital and ICU, but a good model should have had contingency scenarios already developed. Maybe they were rushed to get something out that was palatable to the people who initiated it?

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT August 21st 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

911 new cases for Australia and 3 deaths so the CMR is 2.228%. That's a new record Australian high for daily cases.

24 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.862%.

The UK had a higher 31,976 cases yesterday and lower 49 deaths for a CMR of 2.027%.

A lower 85,822 new cases in the USA yesterday and lower 537 deaths sees CMR at 1.674%.

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Thailand moves above Israel for the 11th most cases in Asia;

Brunei (314);
Australia (911); and
Sri Lanka (4,304)

... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[russellw]

The NSW 'actual' number today (818) is slightly under the predictive curve but it would be a bit bold to make any further positive prediction based on a single day of data.

At this stage, the model predicts passing the 1,000 cases / day mark on Thursday but as I've said before, that's rubbery at best and it can change quickly however the 10-day case growth rate is still 1.087 and that's enough to suggest that numbers will continue to climb.

[Citroënbender]

I haven’t seen a “testing rates by area” for NSW but a Sunday saw a record number of tests and this may mean that today’s returned case tally is more true than some others.

The PM is subtly pivoting into campaign mode, channeling FDR’s “The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself” - but inferentially calling Australians cave-dwellers in the process. And the ABC is also subtly shifting further from the #ZeroCovid mantra to once again thinking it’s better to have people like Professor Blakely “inside the tent”, if we’re quoting American Presidents…

[Trevor 57]

Originally Posted by xkxlxm

On the news tonight: there's a new vaccination hub at the old Ford factory in Broadmeadows. They had a couple of XCs and an XB there.

saw that, my wife was quite excited to see it too

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Have been thinking about this one for a bit. My assumption to begin with is that these variables and numbers are being crunched by some pretty smart people, so I'm giving them some benefit of the doubt.

From what I can gather, the modelling's goal was all to do with keeping our health care system from being overwhelmed. So starting with low cases as a base, and health care under no stress, with 70-80% vaxxed, they anticipate that we can open up as outlined in the phased plan. Any outbreaks can be contained locally and our health care system would still be ok.

But if we start with a "high" number of cases and it being so widely spread, our health care system already stretched, opening up as intended could tip it over the edge. I'm guessing questions now need to be asked on how much can we open up if, say, we start with 1000+ new cases a day across two of our most populous states, and with it being so widely spread, and our hospital "just" coping. I have a feeling they will rejig the phased restriction settings, rather than the % vaccination number.

I don't think anyone predicted we would be seeing 800+ a day cases again, and with the numbers we are seeing in hospital and ICU, but a good model should have had contingency scenarios already developed. Maybe they were rushed to get something out that was palatable to the people who initiated it?

But it is not about the case numbers, it is about the hospitalisations.

NSW is currently using about 1.5% of their ventilators (Hazzard said they now have "a couple of thousand")

So if we get to 70% vaccination we could have 10 times the cases in NSW and need 5 times as many ventilators (and have 5 times as many in hospital - 3000 and ICU - 500, using probably 10% of ventilators) That case load corresponds roughly with where the UK is now. I would put my money on 8000-10000 cases a day in NSW a month or two after opening up. This will happen even if you start at zero.

Unfortunately this is what success looks like. I think we are all soft from being so protected from real outbreaks. We are all in for a rude awakening when we all put our big boy pants on and try to live a normal life with this. Look at the UK - 30000 cases a day, 100 plus deaths a day, would be the same as us having 12000 cases and 35-40 deaths a day. That is going to be normal. I just looked at the BBC news page, no where near the the hysteria we are having our situation. The Guardian UK, not even on the front page!

[naddis01]

Originally Posted by naddis01

Well three days later and we have 10 cases in Wilcannia and 2 in Broken Hill.

Another 3 days later and I believe we are at 23 cases in Wilcannia and 5 in Broken Hill. Tomorrow is going to be a big day with at least 15 to be announced for Wilcannia. If that is correct, that would take the total to over 5% of Wilcannia's population.

[Citroënbender]

One thing I’m not clear on, is if younger children may catch and spread the virus, how is vaccination worse for them than contagion?

I fear the next “wait, there’s one more thing before you can all go” moment will be a determination to vaccinate a large percentage of children from maybe four years and up.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by tweeked

But it is not about the case numbers, it is about the hospitalisations.



NSW is currently using about 1.5% of their ventilators (Hazzard said they now have "a couple of thousand")



So if we get to 70% vaccination we could have 10 times the cases in NSW and need 5 times as many ventilators (and have 5 times as many in hospital - 3000 and ICU - 500, using probably 10% of ventilators) That case load corresponds roughly with where the UK is now. I would put my money on 8000-10000 cases a day in NSW a month or two after opening up. This will happen even if you start at zero.



Unfortunately this is what success looks like. I think we are all soft from being so protected from real outbreaks. We are all in for a rude awakening when we all put our big boy pants on and try to live a normal life with this. Look at the UK - 30000 cases a day, 100 plus deaths a day, would be the same as us having 12000 cases and 35-40 deaths a day. That is going to be normal. I just looked at the BBC news page, no where near the the hysteria we are having our situation. The Guardian UK, not even on the front page!

The stress point is not the beds and ventilators, you need people to run them. 10,000 cases a day might be manageable if you started with 30 (as per modelling, which seems unrealistically low), but 10,000 might be unmanageable if you started with 1000 - 3000 new cases per day.

Victoria increased their ICU capacity by 4 folds during wave 2, but it's been said they won't have enough people to run them at full capacity. So what's the point? We could probably draw on other states to help if needed, that's if there are no outbreaks there.

Me and my immediate family have been doubled jabbed now for some weeks. I'm ready to open up. I'm in full agreement with you we can't hide forever.