Covid 19 -

[russellw]

Originally Posted by PHANTMXR6

Is that a typo Russ and you meant 31/10?

No, I meant the 13th.

To try and get a more accurate CMR, we look at cases from 15-30 days ago and then match those with the mortality data for the last 15 days as we know that is roughly the median delay in case mortality and refer to this as the adjusted CMR. Otherwise, the data is skewed because you could have 1k cases last week and almost no deaths as they won't come until next week or the week after.

For example the current Victorian CMR for all of 2021 is 0.424% based on ~71k cases but 24k of those cases have been in the last 14 days and they will result in 100-150 deaths which will make the CMR closer to 0.659%.

Originally Posted by slowsnake

Hey Russell, do you think that being locked down for such a long period in the UK may have had more of a detrimental effect on middle aged folk?

I think that some of what was reported in that study in terms of the psychological impacts can be attributed to the lockdowns but I suspect the bulk of the 'anxiety' issues are related to simple fear given that many of the hospitalised would have been amongst the elderly.

For mine, the missing link in that research is the severity and impact measures. It's a great headline grabber to say that 54% of COVID cases (that were hospitalised) still have at least 1 PASC after 6 months but if that '1' is an issue with anxiety or other mental disorder then that puts a different slant on it - not that I'm underestimating the impact of those.

The key take-away for me is the chest imaging abnormalities in a high percentage of those survivors and the next thing we need to learn from that is just how severe those abnormalities are.

Clearly, the reported incidence of Dyspnea (29.7%); pulmonary diffusion abnormalities (30.3%); ground glass opacification (an increase in lung attenuation) (23.1%); restrictive patterns on spirometry (10.0%) and lung fibrosis (7.0%) are all cause for concern as they impact long term health outcomes and probably life expectancy, particularly as many will have multiple of those symptoms but we need to know (for example) if the GGO is 5% or 10% etc. to assess the likely impact.

[russellw]

NSW/VIC
NSW records 173 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 0.9522 (from 0.9206) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend line and is trending slightly upward again.



VIC records 989 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9700 (from 0.9827) while the actual line moves back below the predictive trend. That’s the first day under 1k cases in a little over a month.



Week 16 in Victoria ended today with 72,065 cases to date compared to 19,708 at the same point of the 2020 outbreak and 62,301 for the NSW 2021 outbreak. Weekly case numbers see Victoria with almost twice as many cases as NSW last week but overall the case numbers are below those of the last few weeks. Note that we are comparing historical data for NSW with current data for Victoria as NSW is about 3.5 weeks ahead.

[slowsnake]

We shouldn't fight between states and territories, we are a.l Australians and all love Australia ❤
Leave the fighting to M & M....Morrison & Macron......

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT November 1st 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

1,466 new cases for Australia and 8 deaths so the CMR is 1.013%.

166 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.425%.

The UK had 39,682 cases yesterday and 74 deaths for a CMR of 1.546%.

50,455 new cases in the USA yesterday and 475 deaths sees CMR at 1.636.

Other notable points:
The USA drops below the 10-day 90th percentile for deaths;

No countries recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[stig_3754]

Originally Posted by oldel

We've been having BBQs, not wearing masks, filling up pubs and restaurants for most of the past 18months LOL.

In a couple of months we'll probably be reopen and in the meantime haven't had to deal with covid much at all. No reason to point a finger to WA just because we remained open internally and pretty much unscathed. Our total cases/deaths are less than some daily tallies in NSW/Vic.
I'm jealous of ACTs vaxx rate, but don't be jealous of our almost covid free lifestyle. I want our vaxx rate higher and I want to be open by feb anyway (don't care about this year at all, I think it's going to get worse over east before it gets better anyway, especially regional and indigenous areas). Willing to wait it out because after all W.A. stands for 'wait awhile' anyway)

[FairmontGS]

NSW fast-tracks freedoms for fully vaccinated people, but bad news for those without COVID-19 jab

A raft of restrictions due to be scrapped for people fully inoculated on December 1 will now be relaxed on Monday, November 8.

Unvaccinated people had also been due to get freedoms on December 1.

However, they'll now have to wait until December 15, or, whatever date NSW reaches 95 per cent double dose coverage for people aged 16 and above.

In NSW, 93.6 per cent of people aged 16 and up have had one jab, while 87.8 per cent are fully vaccinated.

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/austr...edgdhp&pc=U531

[PG2]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

NSW fast-tracks freedoms for fully vaccinated people, but bad news for those without COVID-19 jab



https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/austr...edgdhp&pc=U531

I was thinking about this when they announced it. Is 95% realistically achievable?

What percentage of the population are against the vaccine? As the article points out, 93.6% of the population have had their first jab - you would think that if you wanted to be vaccinated you would have at least had the first jab by now?

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by PG2

…Is 95% realistically achievable?

I don’t think it is. Realistically we’re probably beyond the edge of an “80/20” scenario already, but it would be a poor look to knock off indefinitely when the 20 percent unvaccinated include arguably some of the most likely to suffer if they test positive down the track.

The ongoing language around Australia’s Covid vaccination progress seems slanted towards overly vigorous words. Jabs, shots, hitting goals, smashing targets. Can’t we simply note where it’s going well or to plan, and where it needs some work? Coupled with the near-demonisation of people who choose not to be vaccinated against Covid, it’s a lot of implicit aggression.

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by PG2

I was thinking about this when they announced it. Is 95% realistically achievable?

What percentage of the population are against the vaccine? As the article points out, 93.6% of the population have had their first jab - you would think that if you wanted to be vaccinated you would have at least had the first jab by now?

If they make it to 95 first, then it's a given. It's slowing but hasn't stopped increasing as yet.

Going on how the good people of The GSS stepped up when they had to, especially SW Sydney , I'm backing it in

[Citroënbender]

Slight uptick for NSW, noting the high number of tests and also steadily reducing number of hospitalised cases, while Victoria is under a thousand new cases again. All in, it really seems to be going quite a lot better than some forecast models.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by PG2

I was thinking about this when they announced it. Is 95% realistically achievable?

What percentage of the population are against the vaccine? As the article points out, 93.6% of the population have had their first jab - you would think that if you wanted to be vaccinated you would have at least had the first jab by now?

I sense there will be some laggers who will give in once there workplace gets a bit more serious.

IE - you no longer have a job if you dont

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by slowsnake

Hot off the press in good old US of A.

PFIZER FOR KIDS FROM AGE 5.

The US Health Regulator has authorised Pfizer - BioN - Tech corona virus vaccine for children aged 5 to 11 years, making it the first COVID - 19 shot for young children in the US.
The decision is expected to make the vaccine available to 28 million children in the US, many of whom are back in school for in - person learning.

It comes after a panel of advisors to the Food and Drug Administration voted overwhelmingly to recommend the authorisation on Tuesday.
An advisory panel to the US Centers ( sic ) for Disease Control and Prevention is scheduled to meet next week to consider recommendations.
The CDC Director will have the final say!


Quoted verbatim Sunday Times WA........

Well the meeting was approved to provide the vaccine to children, reporter stated as soon as the CDC Director signs off the vaccinations should start in a couple of days!

[ford71V8]

Originally Posted by PG2

I was thinking about this when they announced it. Is 95% realistically achievable?

What percentage of the population are against the vaccine? As the article points out, 93.6% of the population have had their first jab - you would think that if you wanted to be vaccinated you would have at least had the first jab by now?

I know people who admit they will have to get vaxxed but yet to act...dragging their feet because they would rather not

[russellw]

Originally Posted by PG2

I was thinking about this when they announced it. Is 95% realistically achievable?

What percentage of the population are against the vaccine? As the article points out, 93.6% of the population have had their first jab - you would think that if you wanted to be vaccinated you would have at least had the first jab by now?

I think that by the end of this month, whatever percentage anywhere that has had at least 1 jab (working on the reasonable assumption that those people will get their 2nd) is the percentage we'll ever be able to reach because the balance will be either:

- unable for medical reasons; or
- vehemently unwilling

There might be a small gain in traction with a few of the latter over time but that's about it.

[russellw]

NSW/VIC
NSW records 190 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 0.9879 (from 0.9522) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend line and is trending slightly upward again.



VIC records 941 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9546 (from 0.9700) while the actual line moves back below the predictive trend. That’s the second day under 1k cases in a little over a month but with very low testing numbers.

[slowsnake]

UNIVERSAL JAB

Australian researchers may have paved the way for a universal COVID-19 vaccine which could protect from all future variants of the virus.
In a medical breakthrough, scientists from the Sydney - based Garvan Institute have developed a vaccine strategy that would work against all future COVID strains by studying thousands of antibodies that target the coronavirus' spike protein.

The spike protein remains the same even after the virus mutates.

Garden Institute executive director Christopher Goodnow said current vaccines targeted other parts of the virus that could easily mutate.

The West Australian newspaper today 3rd November 2021

[DJR-351]

Originally Posted by Polyal

I sense there will be some laggers who will give in once there workplace gets a bit more serious.

IE - you no longer have a job if you dont

We only had 4 proud & vocal anti-vaxxers up until about a week ago when my employer sent out the below memo, 3 are now stumbling over each other to get jabbed and 1 has stuck to his guns and will be joining the ranks of the unemployed, at the moment we only have ships working out of the NT & WA so zero options....

Government Mandated Vaccination

It is not a xxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxx requirement for our employees to receive a vaccination, however Northern Territory and Western Australia governments have both introduced mandatory vaccine requirements, which will be applicable to our vessels.

These will apply from the following dates:

Northern Territory

From 13 November 2021 a worker must have received the first dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine.

From 25 December 2021 a worker must have received two doses of an approved COVID-19 vaccine.

Western Australia

From 1 December 2021 a worker must have received the first dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine.

From 1 January 2022 a worker must have received two doses of an approved COVID-19 vaccine.

The company is required to verify the vaccine status of all workers by recording:

For partial vaccine – a copy of a completed appointment slip, or similar
For full vaccine – A digital vaccination certificate
Or; details of an exemption recorded on the Australian Immunisation Register.

Staff will be required to supply one of the above documents prior to being assigned to a vessel.

If you do not plan to get a vaccine before these dates please contact xxxx xxxxxxxxx as soon as possible to discuss the available options.

[wodahs]

Originally Posted by russellw

I think that by the end of this month, whatever percentage anywhere that has had at least 1 jab (working on the reasonable assumption that those people will get their 2nd) is the percentage we'll ever be able to reach because the balance will be either:

- unable for medical reasons; or
- vehemently unwilling

There might be a small gain in traction with a few of the latter over time but that's about it.

to me the next chapter will be what employment will be available to these people and the more interesting would be what benefits they would be entitled to if not employable due to unwillingness to have the jab

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by DJR-351

We only had 4 proud & vocal anti-vaxxers up until about a week ago when my employer sent out the below memo, 3 are now stumbling over each other to get jabbed and 1 has stuck to his guns and will be joining the ranks of the unemployed, at the moment we only have ships working out of the NT & WA so zero options....

Yeap same here, so we may loose a couple but such is life.

[wodahs]

Originally Posted by DJR-351

We only had 4 proud & vocal anti-vaxxers up until about a week ago when my employer sent out the below memo, 3 are now stumbling over each other to get jabbed and 1 has stuck to his guns and will be joining the ranks of the unemployed, at the moment we only have ships working out of the NT & WA so zero options....

this may be interesting as we may loose a few as well in our heavy haulage department here in W.A. (and not because they still hide under their doona's) but refuse to have the jab and truck drivers (not just here in W.A.) are hard to come by atm let alone them with float and heavy machinery experience
and that department like most of our other dept here have had adds open looking for drivers for a while now already and i doubt wages will increase to help interest people to return to driving esp them that left to the mining sector

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT November 2nd 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

1,168 new cases for Australia and 13 deaths so the CMR is 1.014%.

129 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.416%.

The UK had 33,546 cases yesterday and 292 deaths for a CMR of 1.544%.

85,559 new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,156 deaths sees CMR at 1.636%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 248M, the last 1M in 3 days;
The USA drops below the 10-day 90th percentile for deaths;

Greece (6,700);

.... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Montenegro and Turkey move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[blue sleeper]

Originally Posted by PG2

I was thinking about this when they announced it. Is 95% realistically achievable?

What percentage of the population are against the vaccine? As the article points out, 93.6% of the population have had their first jab - you would think that if you wanted to be vaccinated you would have at least had the first jab by now?

Dunno ask my parents who are in their 60s.....

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by HIPO

https://www.facebook.com/SteveMaher0...23329689506436

3000 soon to be ex-South Australian health workers protest.
- 30 out of 38 patients in ICU are vaxed.
- Most hospitalisations are vaccine injured.
- Myocarditis raging among vaxed.
- Massive government/ media coverup.
Their words, not mine. This video will be deleted by Facebook before too many get to see it. Here’s your chance to wake up.

Deleted because absolute rubbish.
Fixed for accuracy.

[Citroënbender]

Looks like the NSW uptick has started.

[russellw]

NSW/VIC
NSW records 309 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0315 (from 0.9879) while the actual line moves further above the predictive trend line and is trending sharply upward again.




VIC records 1,247 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0116 (from 0.9546) while the actual line moves back above the predictive trend.

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Looks like the NSW uptick has started.

all the assurance why we get vaxxed......
Onwards and forwards, numbers will be snakes and ladders for a long time.

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by FTE217

all the assurance why we get vaxxed......
Onwards and forwards, numbers will be snakes and ladders for a long time.

Haha, slowsnakes and round ladders!...

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT November 3rd 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

1,078 new cases for Australia and 12 deaths so the CMR is 1.014%.

109 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.410%.

The UK had 40,803 cases yesterday and 217 deaths for a CMR of 1.539%.

78,068 new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,531 deaths sees CMR at 1.636%.

Other notable points:
Europe passes 65M cases;

Cayman Islands (437);
Laos (1,062);
Estonia (3,206); and
Slovenia (3,454) - the previous high on 6/1/21;

.... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

The Netherlands, Bosnia and Czechia move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

I don't think this will take the shine too much off the win:

Co-owner of Melbourne Cup winner fined for COVID breaches at Flemington
Prominent racing owner Brae Sokolski has been fined $10,000 for breaching strict COVID protocols after his horse Verry Elleegant won Tuesday's Melbourne Cup.

Mr Sokolski, who part-owns the winning mare, pleaded guilty to breaching the rules in an investigation by Racing Victoria (RV) stewards.

After Verry Elleegant's win, Mr Sokolski jumped a fence into the mounting yard, which was deemed a "yellow zone" under the rules at Flemington Racecourse.

He was not granted permission to enter the yard, instead only allowed in the green zone areas of the racecourse.

He also pleaded guilty to failing to wear a face mask in the yellow zone.

He has been handed a $10,000 fine for the breaches.

"Stewards heard submissions on penalty from Mr Sokolski and after doing so took into consideration his guilty plea, his candid evidence, his unblemished record over a long period of time and that he expressed remorse,' RV said in a statement.

"The Stewards also took into consideration the nature of the offending, the potential ramifications that could flow from a breach of Racing Victoria's COVID-19 Protocols, and that the penalty must be sufficient enough to deter others from breaching the COVID-19 Protocols."

[FTE217]

in that case they should have fined him quad triple ( he can afford it) just so he felt like a heel in front of all and that would make sure won't happen again you think.