Resources - when will the world "run out" of resources?

cheap · 11-02-2011, 03:56 PM

Every couple of years Peak Oil hits mainstream media and the end of "oil" is near. Then BP makes a "massive" oil discovery and we're to conclude all is safe. Then the Resource Super Profit Tax (or whatever its called these days) is proposed, because Australia will run out of "resources". Then China signs up a $60 billion dollar energy deal with Australia, so much for running out of resources. There just seems to be a tremendous amount of contradictory information regarding these resources.

I don't want this to thread to become political as I'm not interested in Climate Change, Global Warming, Green/Renewable (Geothermal, Hydro-electricity, Wave Power, Solar) or Nuclear energy.

But, when will the worlds mainstream energy resources (Oil/Gas/Coal) run out?

zdcol71 · 11-02-2011, 04:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cheap

.......But, when will the worlds mainstream energy resources (Oil/Gas/Coal) run out?

They won't...or not whilst we are still here using them, ie we will be "gone" before they are.

chrisfpv · 11-02-2011, 04:08 PM

I don't think a straight answer can be given on this topic, but what I believe (and this is just my opinion) is that everything comes to an end.
It may not be in our lifetime, but it will run out eventually.

Riksta · 11-02-2011, 04:09 PM

vztrt · 11-02-2011, 04:12 PM

We have lots and lots of coal. Gas reserves are quite huge as well. China will be building wells in the next 10 years to supply them. Uranium (if we ever actually go that way), well the Olynpic dam is said top have 100years worth.

Oil wise, I bet there are reserves they haven't found, but why would they do that when they can gouge the market with what we have.

cheap · 11-02-2011, 04:21 PM

Early days, but most responses seem to indicate resources will be available for some (very long) time, hopefully we'll hear from the "end is near" team, com'on don't be shy

I wrote in another thread, that I've traveled to many coal mines in Qld and NSW and after +40 years of digging the stuff 24x7x365x40, the miners haven't made a dent on these reserves. There seems to be so much coal!

Does anyone know where oil comes from? In my school days we were basically taught oil is product of the remnants of vast prehistoric forests/dinosaurs compressed for millions of millennium. Is this true?

fmc351 · 11-02-2011, 04:35 PM

30th Feb, 2093 @ 14:38

fmc351 · 11-02-2011, 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cheap

Does anyone know where oil comes from? In my school days we were basically taught oil is product of the remnants of vast prehistoric forests/dinosaurs compressed for millions of millennium. Is this true?

No, thats olive oil.

**Raptor** · 11-02-2011, 04:44 PM

They will never run out.

But as they become more scarce they will become too expensive for you to afford to use them as you do today, and they'll be plenty more people competing for them.

The real problem - unrestrained (and unsustainable) population growth.

buggo · 11-02-2011, 06:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fmc351

30th Feb, 2093 @ 14:38

According to my calculations, this is accuate.

Really though, I thiink we won't 'run out' of oil while we still need it. We will use oil for the next century minimum however during that time other energy sources will be used aswell (not anywhere near the volume of oil though). This will keep oil prices competitive, reletively, as there will be more than one option, so I don't think the price will 'blow out' and be out of reach from the regular bloke until the very last drops are drawn. But this could be very farrr in the future, there might eventually not be a need for oil.

If it does run out however, I wonder what the very last barrel of oil will cost, and will it be stored in a museum or similar?

Rodp · 11-02-2011, 06:31 PM

Work Horse · 11-02-2011, 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cheap

Every couple of years Peak Oil hits mainstream media and the end of "oil" is near. Then BP makes a "massive" oil discovery and we're to conclude all is safe.

The term "Peak oil" does not refer to running out of oil. Peak oil refers to supply not filling the demand, and that driving up the price. It is guesstimated we have used about half the worlds supply of oil. The demand for oil increases daily, and the oil that is left is getting harder to get at. So increased demand for a dwindling supply will push the price up.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cheap

Then the Resource Super Profit Tax (or whatever its called these days) is proposed, because Australia will run out of "resources". Then China signs up a $60 billion dollar energy deal with Australia, so much for running out of resources.

The new mining tax is not being proposed, because Australia will run out of "resources". There is a mining boom at the moment because of demand from China. The resources being sold can obviously only be dug up once. The government says it is trying to get more of the profits from this windfall for all Australians.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cheap

There just seems to be a tremendous amount of contradictory information regarding these resources.

I don't want this to thread to become political as I'm not interested in Climate Change, Global Warming, Green/Renewable (Geothermal, Hydro-electricity, Wave Power, Solar) or Nuclear energy.

But, when will the worlds mainstream energy resources (Oil/Gas/Coal) run out?

We will find other forms of energy before the current ones run out. The price of our current energy sources just have to increase enough to make other forms of energy more attractive. It's already happening...

snappy · 11-02-2011, 07:53 PM

I was just listening to Ross Greenwood on the radio and he was talking about this because of the wikileaks cable ,He had some expert on there and the expert was saying peak oil was a couple of centuries away yet and it will be even longer if oil becomes over $100us a barrel because then shale oil then becomes a viable alternative .
He then went on to say there is shale oil spots bigger then saudi arabia . And when it comes to gas we have even more of that.

Bobman · 11-02-2011, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rodp

Ethanol buses exist! ;)

charles_wif_xf · 11-02-2011, 08:23 PM

I am of the opinion that we hit peak oil about six years ago. There is still plenty of oil left in the ground, but the amount we recover each year from now on will drop until it becomes unfeasible to do so. Alternative technologies needed to be in place, being established, 10 years ago.

snappy · 11-02-2011, 08:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by charles_wif_xf

I am of the opinion that we hit peak oil about six years ago. There is still plenty of oil left in the ground, but the amount we recover each year from now on will drop until it becomes unfeasible to do so. Alternative technologies needed to be in place, being established, 10 years ago.

If we had hit peak oil the market would of reflected it , but it certainly has not .
Also if we had hit peak oil production we would not be wondering if we had . It is in the best interest of the oil companies to say so just like it is in there best interest to make us think we are running out .

charles_wif_xf · 11-02-2011, 08:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by snappy

If we had hit peak oil the market would of reflected it , but it certainly has not .
Also if we had hit peak oil production we would not be wondering if we had . It is in the best interest of the oil companies to say so just like it is in there best interest to make us think we are running out .

Why do you think oil has slowly crept up to $100 a barrel?
And the peak isn't a sharp one, there would be a few years of a plateau followed by a slight decline which would accelerate as time went on.

snappy · 11-02-2011, 09:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by charles_wif_xf

Why do you think oil has slowly crept up to $100 a barrel?
And the peak isn't a sharp one, there would be a few years of a plateau followed by a slight decline which would accelerate as time went on.

Its Not in 2009 it hit $150 dropped to $30 its currently sitting around about $86 a barrel Mainly due to the the trouble in Egypt with blocked supply .
The wikileaks cable that came out today which all it was was a couple of bureaucrats saying peak oil is coming oil went up 18cents and no increase in investment either . If this cable was correct the oil price would of doubled and investment also investment in shale oil would of peaked as well but it has not . Saudi Arabia are also investing to increase from 12milllion barrels a day to 15 million this year , That alone blows your theory out of the water .
That and it seems many oil researchers are calling BS .
Peak oil talk is just there to make billionaires into trillionaires

cheap · 11-02-2011, 09:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by snappy

Its Not in 2009 it hit $150 dropped to $30 its currently sitting around about $86 a barrel Mainly due to the the trouble in Egypt with blocked supply .
The wikileaks cable that came out today which all it was was a couple of bureaucrats saying peak oil is coming oil went up 18cents and not increase in investment either . If this was correct oil price would of doubled and investment in shale oil would of peaked as well but it has not . Saudi Arabia are investing to increase from 12milllion barrels a day to 15 million this year , That alone blows your theory out of the water .
That and it seems many oil researchers are calling BS

Peak Oil has been used to justify all sorts of mis-information and manipulation. To put it simply (I'm sure controversy will follow), but it would seem the world is awash with hydrocarbons. Shale oil and coal can be converted to oil. The technology exists, however it is not cheap. But with the cost of oil rising, shale oil/coal become viable and can be converted to oil for an equivalent cost. In theory with Austalia's vast reserves of coal we'd have an oil supply for hundreds (maybe thousands) of years. But these vast hydrocarbons don't seem to count in the Peak Oil scheme.

As we all know OPEC isn't subject to competition regulation and they don't play fair, they price oil to whatever they expect. The 2009 price rise seems to have been a corruption of supply, stories of full oil tankers deliberately being kept in the gulf whilst a huge manipulation of the price occured. Someone (not necessarily OPEC) made a fortune on the oil futures market and someone lost a fortune too.

charles_wif_xf · 11-02-2011, 10:02 PM

Whether peak oil is fact or fallacy is besides the point. There are no alternatives to oil, that is the 800 pound gorilla in the room. Had electric cars not been stifled and eventually abandoned in favour of petrol powered versions back in the very early 20th century, they'd be many times more advanced today than the half arsed hybrids we have presently.

snappy · 11-02-2011, 10:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by charles_wif_xf

Whether peak oil is fact or fallacy is besides the point. There are no alternatives to oil, that is the 800 pound gorilla in the room. Had electric cars not been stifled and eventually abandoned in favour of petrol powered versions back in the very early 20th century, they'd be many times more advanced today than the half arsed hybrids we have presently.

I concur

snappy · 11-02-2011, 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cheap

Peak Oil has been used to justify all sorts of mis-information and manipulation. To put it simply (I'm sure controversy will follow), but it would seem the world is awash with hydrocarbons. Shale oil and coal can be converted to oil. The technology exists, however it is not cheap. But with the cost of oil rising, shale oil/coal become viable and can be converted to oil for an equivalent cost. In theory with Austalia's vast reserves of coal we'd have an oil supply for hundreds (maybe thousands) of years. But these vast hydrocarbons don't seem to count in the Peak Oil scheme.

As we all know OPEC isn't subject to competition regulation and they don't play fair, they price oil to whatever they expect. The 2009 price rise seems to have been a corruption of supply, stories of full oil tankers deliberately being kept in the gulf whilst a huge manipulation of the price occured. Someone (not necessarily OPEC) made a fortune on the oil futures market and someone lost a fortune too.

Your right we have a Massive oil supply basically untouched too except for a minute portion thats used for experimental purposes. An some of the biggest gas stores on the plantet aswell virtually untouched .

The real question is not when gas/oil will run out because we wont see it in our life time or probly our kids lifetime either. The question is how long can we afford it for .

ECOJET · 11-02-2011, 10:26 PM

id guess they'd make a fully man-made oil before the crude runs out and this product will become the mainstream lube... regardless of energy type, moving metal parts need oil so unlike petrol and coal e.t.c, oil will forever be needed

gtfpv · 11-02-2011, 10:31 PM

so far here , everyone is just spinning a yarn of no substance , so i'll add my yarn . i think oil is in its early to mid stages , same as iron ore , i would guestimate as, or if the population continues its growth exponentiolly , oil and resources may become scarce, and our environment / atmosphere and land mass would suffer , how much oil can you take out of the earth ? what replaces it ?
if i think on a 1000 year into the future scale i would guess this is about when resources run slim , think of the population though on the current growth scale .
now logically think about it , the answer lies in population GROWTH/ REDUCTION/CONTROL , combined with TECHNOLOGY . my guess is never . i think all these issues will become resolved by future generations with TECHNOLOGY , long after we're gone .

Dr Jekkyl · 11-02-2011, 11:03 PM

Oil? Meh. Iron ore? Meh. Natural gas? Meh. Sure they are essential to our current lifestyle but I think that water is the resource that we need to keep an eye on.

Population growth, industrial intensification, urbanisation (esp in developing nations), etc. will put massive strain on clean water reserves in the near future, methinks. Indeed wars will probably be fought over the stuff.

Dr Jekkyl · 11-02-2011, 11:10 PM

Oil? Meh. Iron ore? Meh. Natural gas? Meh. Sure they are essential to our current lifestyle but I think that water is the resource that we need to keep an eye on.

Population growth, industrial intensification, urbanisation (esp in developing nations), etc. will put massive strain on clean water reserves in the near future, methinks. Indeed wars will probably be fought over the stuff.