Falling $AUD

[zilo]

I just laughed when i read the concern from the OP in the first post of this thread at 0.99

Who would have thought? 0.77

[Polyal]

Well the only good thing is I guess our exports become more competitive.

[CoupeKing]

Last time I went to the States was in 2000. AUD was 0.49 then.

[buggerlugs]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

I think the dip is temporary and the dollar will go back up a few cents above parity in a month or 2.

^^^^^ This was back on the 15/05/2013...........

I am not taking your tip for the Melbourne Cup

[buggerlugs]

Originally Posted by zilo

I just laughed when i read the concern from the OP in the first post of this thread at 0.99

Who would have thought? 0.77

When I restored my mustang about 10 years ago, I was buying heaps of parts from the states and our dollar was about $00.67. The parts and freight were a killer...................

[Polyal]

So I guess Ill have to wait for the next mining boom in order to import that Viper GTS at a decent cost....LOL

[lisaishername]

This is good for the Aust economy as AU made parts will be preferable over the "Expensive" Chinese or Japanese imports. I just hope it lasts long enough for it to make a dent in things and to slap AutoBarn silly for even thinking of selling me a Chinese water pump for my Aust car.

If anything having an unrealistic australian dollar is more dangerous and can be an overinflated disaster waiting to happen. Parity is only good for when the nation wants to throw their money away outside of the country and never see it come back again. That is the reason why we have exchange rates in the first place so other countries overseas can force a developing country to make them dependent upon them and bleed their wealth dry. So having a low AUD is GOOD! Trust me on that. It protects the country from foreign theft.

I would like to see a major investment happen in new industry in Australia and for the dollar to remain low for at least for the next 5 to 10 years as that will create wealth which will remain inside our own country.

I would expect it to head down towards 0.20 against USD if we have a major political event that involves China and Russia however if we begin to develop new industries within 10 years time it will bounce back up to 0.50. Lets hope that no major event overseas happens. I don't like McDonalds crusts.

Most people haven't even realized the difference yet. This week I imported some stuff from the US and managed to get it to within 10% of parity with the exchange rates as they are. Win.

The sweet spot is within 0.65 and 0.80. Any sway outside of those barriers is bad for us.

If the worst happens then expect hyperinflation to occur. I would expect a massive stimulus program to happen under a Labor government and slave labor camps with whips under a Liberal one.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102391097
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102387481

Might be time for the men here to pick up their balls and go down to Bunnings and buy one of those 7-tier shelves. Fill up the first two levels with 5kg-20kg bags of rice and the next two shelfs with canned food. Then use the further 3 shelves for rolled oats, spices, cleaning products (hand gel), toilet paper, noodles, coffee, tea, etc.

[Polyal]

Now we just need the property price to fall in line and the neg gearing BS readjusted and things will be more in sync with where the economy is actually at. Its going to be painful but we need it IMO...just keep an eye on foreign housing investment.

[zilo]

As the dollar drops our housing becomes ridiculously cheap for the chinese.

[CQB-241]

Originally Posted by Polyal

Now we just need the property price to fall in line and the neg gearing BS readjusted and things will be more in sync with where the economy is actually at. Its going to be painful but we need it IMO...just keep an eye on foreign housing investment.

Originally Posted by zilo

As the dollar drops our housing becomes ridiculously cheap for the chinese.

Housing drops and huge numbers of people lose their shirts and get massive issues with negative equity. Then cashed up buyers (possibly foreign) buy up the stock and rent it back to the earning but asset-depleted Aussies. Not a good wish IMO. Sounds like too much of the rest of the country.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by CQB-241

Housing drops and huge numbers of people lose their shirts and get massive issues with negative equity. Then cashed up buyers (possibly foreign) buy up the stock and rent it back to the earning but asset-depleted Aussies. Not a good wish IMO. Sounds like too much of the rest of the country.

Yeah but our property "wealth" is false...the prices were going up while the times where good and people dont want them to go down when the poo hits the fan? Why?

I agree its not good for the nation but our reliance on property to grow "wealth" is not productive at all.

You also need to clamp down on foreign domestic housing investment...why its even allowed to get to the point it is now I dont know.

If foreigners want to invest they can build infrastructure or get into shares, not roof's over heads.

/rant.

[CQB-241]

Originally Posted by Polyal

Yeah but our property "wealth" is false...the prices were going up while the times where good and people dont want them to go down when the poo hits the fan? Why?

I agree its not good for the nation but our reliance on property to grow "wealth" is not productive at all.

You also need to clamp down on foreign domestic housing investment...why its even allowed to get to the point it is now I dont know.

If foreigners want to invest they can build infrastructure or get into shares, not roof's over heads.

/rant.

Economic rationalist, eh?

Problem with this country has been policy in the run and too much willingness to repeatedly change the rules. Much of the common wealth in this country is built on property because of decades of precedent, no GCT on family home, negative gearing, secure infrastructure and fairly tight supply of new stock.

All well and good for the high end of town who have commercial or prestige enclave residential and lots of non-property assets to change rules, buggers up the others who sweat for decades to build up something. But like all the other "leveling the playing field" moves....

[GT0132]

Originally Posted by Polyal

Yeah but our property "wealth" is false...the prices were going up while the times where good and people dont want them to go down when the poo hits the fan? Why?

Because many bought at the height of the boom to get into the market and borrowed to the max . Should values plummet their bank will be calling on them to top up their equity which they obviously wouldn't be able to afford to do..So mortgagee sale ensues, property sells for much less than the loan amount, borrower indebted to the bank for an asset he/she no longer owns.

[Polyal]

I agree with you blokes, but there is an engrained culture in Australia of property always going up. I'm youngish so its always been that way, but when you look at other countries clearly its not the case.

Unemployment is up, dollar is down, general economy not traveling well and yet property holds and still climbs? Seems odd.

[GT0132]

Originally Posted by Polyal

I agree with you blokes, but there is an engrained culture in Australia of property always going up. I'm youngish so its always been that way, but when you look at other countries clearly its not the case.

Unemployment is up, dollar is down, general economy not traveling well and yet property holds and still climbs? Seems odd.

Yes mate it's an amazing phenomenon. Part of the reason could be that the RB keeps lowering rates to stimulate the economy . In old times that strategy worked as business owners would borrow more to invest , expend their business and create jobs. Consumers would borrow more to buy retail and those wanting to enter the property market would. This time all its doing is increasing the demand for property and pushing prices up while businesses are still, by enlarge, tightening their belts and consumers aren't spending .

[CoupeKing]

Double post

[SB076]

I'll stick my neck out again, dollar will be $0.70 by the end of the year, property will remain stable (no increase no decrease - in some areas that will be the exceptions) Unemployment will be slightly higher - confidence will remain down and we will have another rate cut

[zilo]

Originally Posted by CQB-241

Housing drops and huge numbers of people lose their shirts and get massive issues with negative equity. Then cashed up buyers (possibly foreign) buy up the stock and rent it back to the earning but asset-depleted Aussies. Not a good wish IMO. Sounds like too much of the rest of the country.

One of those cashed up buyers will be me.

Always on the lookout for a bargain.

[MITCHAY]

Someone always wins or loses on interest cuts. No one complains when they are on the upside of it. Luckily for me I am or about to be on the good side of it this year.

[ILLaViTaR]

Once those rates go back up (that's the only way they can go as of now..) all the greedy investors with the highest geared loans liquidate and house prices become affordable again.

What are they going to do to bandaid the bubble this time? 0% interest? Soon enough they'll be giving you money to borrow..

The market for the last 4yrs has was baby boomers rolling around in mud having the time of their lives but now the age of entitlement looks to be over. Low rates are the beacon of a crashing economy, an attempt to stimulate a crashing economy.

[Pepscobra]

0% interest rates (or close to it) isn't that unfathomable... Hasn't the US and Japan being doing it for years?

The way I see it, with Mining (expansion projects mainly) on the gradual decline, the Govco needs to do something to keep people employed. Biggest industry atm is the building/construction industry... Best way to keep that active is to support new building with low interest rates. In the longer term it may result in a housing surplus which will push down prices. It'll work for the short term... And the sad thing is that's all the Govornment care about; short term achievements to win elections :(