Fuel Quality versus Price & Com

johnydep · 06-03-2006, 09:54 AM

Our fuel quality is getting better, but the refineries can't produce enough of the stuff. So they are importing it in at a premium price with high freight charges included; who pays in the end?

I wonder if this is one of the executives idea of foresight; keep the industry demand higher than supply and prices will adjust accordingly.

How many refineries do we have in Australia?

I know of three; BP, Caltex & Mobil. Is this enough competition to make the industry efficient?

Quote:

Clean fuels driving Caltex
1 January 2006 was an important day for Australia’s petroleum refining industry. From this date the first tranche of the
Australian Fuel Quality Standards Act 2000 came into effect. The Act requires that petrol sold into the Australian market
has a maximum benzene content of 1% (previously 3.5%) and diesel has a maximum sulphur content of 50 ppm
(previously 500 ppm).
These changes to fuel quality standards are important to the profitability of Australian refineries. Australian refineries’
fuel sales are priced according to import parity prices. That is, they are based on regional (usually Singapore) fuel prices
plus the cost of freighting that fuel to the Australian market. However, higher fuel quality standards in Australia than
elsewhere in Asia make sourcing imports more difficult. As such Australian refineries can charge a “quality premium” for
Australian fuel sales.Caltex (CTX) will benefit greatly from higher fuel quality standards and its ability to charge a quality premium. In 2005,
CTX produced 10.1 billion litres of transport fuel. Of this, around 8.6 billion litres was diesel and petrol. If CTX can
charge a quality premium of US$1 per barrel (roughly 0.85 Australian cents per litres) on the petrol and diesel it refines,
it will increase its EBITDA by around $73 million.
However, CTX’s short term prospects are weak. Delays to refinery upgrades have meant that CTX cannot produce
enough fuel at the quality required by the Act. The Commonwealth Government has granted CTX an extension,
enabling it to sell petrol and diesel at modified (less stringent) standards. However, until refinery upgrades are complete
CTX has to import high quality fuel at high prices and export lower quality fuel at lower prices. CTX is also getting hurt
by high freight rates in these import and export activities.
We believe that in order to restore investor confidence, CTX has to (1) complete its refinery upgrades, (2) prove that
higher utilisation at its refineries is possible and (3) illustrate that it is receiving a sustainable quality premium for the
clean fuels it produces.

Stuart Howe
Equities Analyst

Oh well, I had better get used to paying the cost of our refineries mistakes & inefficiencies; this debate has been going on for as long as I can remember and nothing seems to change.

qwigybo · 06-03-2006, 01:31 PM

there is shell refinery in geelong... problem is they export it overseas then buy it back at a higher price (allegedly)

Chrispy · 06-03-2006, 02:30 PM

Why is it that every body acts as if the oil companies are best friends.
Are Ford buddies with Holden. I don't think so. So why would the refineries be.

Who pays in the end? the company that did not meet spec with thier petrol.
You will have to foot the premium for the new hi spec petrol, but the mistake (made by Caltex) will be covered by themselves.

I think there is about 7 refineries in Australia.
The main ones are
Shell have Clyde (Sydney) & Geelong (Melbourne)
Caltex have Lytton (Brisbane) and Kernell (Sydney)

Don't forget that the local producers spent about $500million each to get the fuel quality to meet the standard. It takes a long time to get that back, even at todays fuel prices.

I'm not the refiners friend, but I understand how things work, so I'm not their enemy either.

Chrispy

PS why do we always have a go at the oil companies when the government taxes petrol at 45c per litre.

Fletty's EL · 06-03-2006, 02:39 PM

Western Australia is supplied by the BP refinery in Kwinana.
They have been having Premium fuel shortages in recent months.

johnydep · 06-03-2006, 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chrispy

Why is it that every body acts as if the oil companies are best friends.
Are Ford buddies with Holden. I don't think so. So why would the refineries be.

Who pays in the end? the company that did not meet spec with thier petrol.
You will have to foot the premium for the new hi spec petrol, but the mistake (made by Caltex) will be covered by themselves.

I think there is about 7 refineries in Australia.
The main ones are
Shell have Clyde (Sydney) & Geelong (Melbourne)
Caltex have Lytton (Brisbane) and Kernell (Sydney)

Don't forget that the local producers spent about $500million each to get the fuel quality to meet the standard. It takes a long time to get that back, even at todays fuel prices.

I'm not the refiners friend, but I understand how things work, so I'm not their enemy either.

Chrispy

PS why do we always have a go at the oil companies when the government taxes petrol at 45c per litre.

Well lets see;
Petrol prices between oil companies are within a fraction of a cent.
Prices go up & down on exactly the same days.
Long weekends bring mysterious price rises.
Our fuel has been of poor quality for decades.
Fuel shortages in some states.
The oil company screws the independant owner/operators.

And you mention the cost of updating the refinery, well it does not matter what the business; all businesses need investment to stay efficient & profitable and should be factored in.
$500million to update you mentioned, one big tax right off.

2004 profit - $572 million
2005 profit - $594 million

Nothing wrong with making a profit, that's what business is about.

Why doesn't engine oil prices go up & down daily?

johnydep · 06-03-2006, 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnydep

........

How many refineries do we have in Australia?

Found out; http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/c...11.htm#Figure1

Quote:

Since 1980, the number of refiner/marketers in Australia has fallen from nine to four and two refineries have closed. Employment numbers in the industry have almost halved since the late 1980s and there have been major reductions in the numbers of distributors and service stations.(3)

Australia currently has eight main refineries owned by the four majors (Caltex, BP, Mobil and Shell) located in the capital cities-Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Perth and Brisbane. These companies also have either crude oil or refined product terminals at most Australian ports (see Figure 1). The total capacity of the Australian refineries is around 860 000 barrels of oil per day. The capacities of the individual refineries are also detailed in Table 1.

Seven now, the S.A. refinery at Port Stanvac is closed & the site requires a major clean up and the State government has extended the clean up date.

Chrispy · 06-03-2006, 04:18 PM

I'll start at the beginning

Petrol importer (Independant) buys petrol for Singapore, ships to Australia, mixes to meet local standards, adds margin and then sells to petrol stations. Price is now X.
Local manufacture brings in crude, refines and sells at X. The cost price to the refiner may be higher (2001) or lower (2004) or much lower (2006) than price X. Proffit or loss is made accordingly.

Come monday night/tuesday morning. Independant wants market share so they drop the price of thier fuel (supplied to petrol stations regardless of sign out front). Instantly other independants and local refiners have to go to that price.
Wednesday, the indepentant has neither market share or pofitable product (as the fuel is cheap and everybody is sellig at the same rate), and the price goes up. Local refiner follows suit. Trend continues up until independant can undercut for market share. and on it goes. Independant knows they are going to get the sales on a weekend or public holiday so the prices remains high.

I would like to see some evidence of refiners supplying poor quality fuel on a quality/cost basis.

An example of fuel shortages would be appreciated. Maybe the refiner had a problem, and the independent could not pick up the slack.

As for the fuel companies screwing the independant operators.
The operators are there by choice. they don't have to buy fuel from any of the local refiners, irespective of th sign out the front.
If they wish they can never deal with the local refiners, ever.

profits are cash in the pocket. Losses are a tax write off.
You should be my accountant.
You also forgot the $181 million dollar loss by caltex in 2001. Sorry its the only year I have on hand, but there were others.

$500million dollars for that much infrastructure is not a lot of money.

Engine oil does not fluctuate because
a) Engine oil companies run at a comfortable profit margin.
b) the quantities are very small compared with that of petrol.

I hope that clears things up.

Chrispy

johnydep · 06-03-2006, 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chrispy

I'll start at the beginning

Petrol importer (Independant) buys petrol for Singapore, ships to Australia, mixes to meet local standards, adds margin and then sells to petrol stations. Price is now X.
Local manufacture brings in crude, refines and sells at X. The cost price to the refiner may be higher (2001) or lower (2004) or much lower (2006) than price X. Proffit or loss is made accordingly.

Come monday night/tuesday morning. Independant wants market share so they drop the price of thier fuel (supplied to petrol stations regardless of sign out front). Instantly other independants and local refiners have to go to that price.
Wednesday, the indepentant has neither market share or pofitable product (as the fuel is cheap and everybody is sellig at the same rate), and the price goes up. Local refiner follows suit. Trend continues up until independant can undercut for market share. and on it goes. Independant knows they are going to get the sales on a weekend or public holiday so the prices remains high.

I would like to see some evidence of refiners supplying poor quality fuel on a quality/cost basis.

An example of fuel shortages would be appreciated. Maybe the refiner had a problem, and the independent could not pick up the slack.

As for the fuel companies screwing the independant operators.
The operators are there by choice. they don't have to buy fuel from any of the local refiners, irespective of th sign out the front.
If they wish they can never deal with the local refiners, ever.

profits are cash in the pocket. Losses are a tax write off.
You should be my accountant.
You also forgot the $181 million dollar loss by caltex in 2001. Sorry its the only year I have on hand, but there were others.

$500million dollars for that much infrastructure is not a lot of money.

Engine oil does not fluctuate because
a) Engine oil companies run at a comfortable profit margin.
b) the quantities are very small compared with that of petrol.

I hope that clears things up.

Chrispy

No it doesn't.

I probably miss-stated independent operators, what I mean is the guy who rents the site from the oil company; they do not have a choice of where they purchase fuel from.
Some of these guys can not renew their leases, as the oil company prefers to franchise the sites in minimum quantities.

Caltex Net profit
12/96 - $57 12/97 - $-151 12/98 - $79 12/99 - $102 12/00 - $36 12/01 - $-186 12/02 - $215 12/03 - $197 12/04 - $572 12/05 - $594

South Australia had the Port Stanvac refinery/storage facility closed down because of repeated oil spills, instead of updating the facility they closed it. To this day no clean up of the site has been started & no mention of one.

One reason for the Federal Government fuel legislation was to improve fuel quality, until recently there was no Australian Standard for fuel only an octane rating.

Fuel Regulations in Australia

You ask for proof but offer none for your hypothesis.

Maybe I am expecting too much, but what I can not understand is why there can not be differences in fueling stations, eg Caltex petrol station has 91 Octane fuel for $1.10 per litre, Shell has 92 octane for $1.12 p/l, BP 94 @ $1.15 p/l, etc.

Chrispy · 06-03-2006, 06:43 PM

Johnydep

Franchisee would be a better term than independant. There could be many reasons why the franchisee didn't have their leases renewed.
By law refiners are only allowed to own 5% of petrol stations which bare their name. They are therefore very picky as to who has one.

People that own petrol stations can buy from either the refiner they have displayed out the front or an importer. For example a Shell service station, does not guarentee Shell fuel. Higher octane premiums being the exception.
In fact in some places the local oil refinery supplies to all the major petrol stations, irrespective of the sign.

Port Stanvac closed down because caltex did not want to spend the money needed to get it to meet 2006 spec fuels.
I have no idea about the environmental issues at the site.
If what you are saying is true the EPA should be at Caltex to clean it up.

I'm more worried about the 500 (but directly and indirectly) that lost their jobs because of the closure of Port Stanvac than the odd franchisee.

I can not comment on the past Australian standards. I believe they all ran to american standards (as a lot of things have).

"You ask for proof but offer none for your hypothesis."
I don't want to go off on a tangent so please expand on the above statement.

Why petrol does not vary 1 cent between stations. I think most of the community buys the cheapest petrol they can. 91, 92 whatever. If refineries choose to sell 92 against 91, they must realise they can only sell it at the same price. Maybe its their marketing ploy, we have "better" fuel at the same price.

Chrispy

snypereb · 06-03-2006, 07:07 PM

Petrol sniffers are turning to heroin, petrol prices are that bad!! lol

qwigybo · 07-03-2006, 04:54 AM

haha snyper that was good

fmc351 · 07-03-2006, 05:25 AM

Crispy, are you trying to say the oil companies have no say in the price of crude? They dont drill their own oil? They arent parent companies of drilling companies? They arent major shareholders? They have no influence at OPEC meetings?

Chrispy · 08-03-2006, 03:14 PM

fmc351,
In Caltex Australias case, the answer to all comments is NO.

I did not say oil companies have no say in the price of crude. I've not commented on OPEC meetings or drilling or any such thing. I have only spoken about the Australian petrol industry, and specifically Caltex, (because I have done some previous investigations into the company). They are also publicly listed so figures can be obtained easily.

fmc351,Please don't ask all these open questions and expect me to get the figures to contradict what you are saying. I have no drilling information, i only have an understanding of how petrol works in Australia. Please do your reseach and come back with some evidence of what you are saying. I have been specific where I can and I have not said anything that would not have be available from a petrol companies consumer information line. If you want to make a comment please say, drilling company X drills Y% of the worlds oil and is owned by company Z.

In regards to using "oil companies" as a collective, they are no different to Ford who control Ford Australia and who compete against GM. Although various companies carry the same LOGO (ie shell), they are still their own company. Shell drilling would sell to Shell refining (or how ever offers them the most money).
Each oil company is more than willing to cross supply (sell to a non-affiliated company) to increase their profits. Conversely oil refiners will buy the cheapest crude (that suits them) from who ever can supply it. This is simple business. They each want market share and a profitable product. Again oil companies are not friends with each other, they are in competition. This is what keeps the price of any product relatively low.

If you think the major oil companies are "price fixing", be it here or around the world, then say they are price fixing.

Caltex in Australia are a public company. They have no drilling capabilities. They have no influence over the price off crude. I can not comment on the other oil companies in Australia. Caltex, being public, individuals can invest in the company and can also get access to their books, thus the figures printed above. Chevron Texaco owns a majority (or close to) of the shares. People that do invest in Caltex Refineries Aust. would expect a return on investment, as they would any other investment. Chevron Texico are just one of those investors.

I am saying Caltex Refineries Australia can not infuence the price of crude (about US$60), nor the price of which standard unleaded is sold at the pump in Australia. Chevron Texico may have some influence but Caltex do not. We were originally talking about Caltex refineries Australias profit, not Chevron Texico or anybody else.

Although it might not seam like it, I'm not really any oil campanies friend. i just don't like people making comment as if its fact on what they don't understand.

Chrispy

johnydep · 08-03-2006, 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chrispy

....................

We were originally talking about Caltex refineries Australias profit, not Chevron Texico or anybody else.

........

Partly, I was also hinting at oil company collusion

:

Sourbastard · 08-03-2006, 03:51 PM

Johnny, 95% of all BP stations in Adelaide are owned by one company. Peregrine Corporation. Make of that what you will in regards to pricing comparisons across our local market.

fmc351 · 09-03-2006, 02:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chrispy

fmc351,
In Caltex Australias case, the answer to all comments is NO.

I did not say oil companies have no say in the price of crude. I've not commented on OPEC meetings or drilling or any such thing. I have only spoken about the Australian petrol industry, and specifically Caltex, (because I have done some previous investigations into the company). They are also publicly listed so figures can be obtained easily.

fmc351,Please don't ask all these open questions and expect me to get the figures to contradict what you are saying. I have no drilling information, i only have an understanding of how petrol works in Australia. Please do your reseach and come back with some evidence of what you are saying. I have been specific where I can and I have not said anything that would not have be available from a petrol companies consumer information line. If you want to make a comment please say, drilling company X drills Y% of the worlds oil and is owned by company Z.

In regards to using "oil companies" as a collective, they are no different to Ford who control Ford Australia and who compete against GM. Although various companies carry the same LOGO (ie shell), they are still their own company. Shell drilling would sell to Shell refining (or how ever offers them the most money).
Each oil company is more than willing to cross supply (sell to a non-affiliated company) to increase their profits. Conversely oil refiners will buy the cheapest crude (that suits them) from who ever can supply it. This is simple business. They each want market share and a profitable product. Again oil companies are not friends with each other, they are in competition. This is what keeps the price of any product relatively low. Ceteris parabis. Economic theory may model behavior, however practice is often different for varied, internal and complex reasoning.

If you think the major oil companies are "price fixing", be it here or around the world, then say they are price fixing.

Caltex in Australia are a public company. They have no drilling capabilities. They have no influence over the price off crude. I can not comment on the other oil companies in Australia. Caltex, being public, individuals can invest in the company and can also get access to their books, thus the figures printed above. Chevron Texaco owns a majority (or close to) of the shares. People that do invest in Caltex Refineries Aust. would expect a return on investment, as they would any other investment. Chevron Texico are just one of those investors. I cant be stuffed looking it up, you say you have them, post them. What are the voting rights attached to Chevrons shares c/w ordinary mum and dad shareholders? AGM's do not reveal truth, they reveal what directors want them to. Directors are influenced by their future aspirations, and enticed by what may be implied by over lunch with major shareholders. Come to the real world, not economic theory

I am saying Caltex Refineries Australia can not infuence the price of crude (about US$60), nor the price of which standard unleaded is sold at the pump in Australia. Chevron Texico may have some influence but Caltex do not. We were originally talking about Caltex refineries Australias profit, not Chevron Texico or anybody else. While technically Caltex Australia has no control of crude prices, the major shareholder does. Oil comes from the same source, and they control that to varying degrees.

Although it might not seam like it, I'm not really any oil campanies friend. i just don't like people making comment as if its fact on what they don't understand.

Chrispy

Caltex Australia has a parent company, no? That parent has some control, influence, no?

I was asking, not saying. Im not going to go search company listings or financial reports for something I know damn well happens.

On the idea of consumer information servers and even financial reports, yeah those are reknowned sources of truth and accuracy. One spins the company to the public, the other to an investor and ASIC.