Goodbye Petrol and Diesel

[buggerlugs]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-...-2030/10949414

[chevypower]

Let the market transition when it’s ready, rather than let extremists become dictators. Speaking of the market, it would be unfortunate for everyone to seek an alternative insurer. ;)

[ebv8]

has to be april fools

Australia do not produce cars they cannot dictate when we can ban fuels
who are we going to buy them off??
we have to follow Japan, Korea, Europe, US and even then we will be a few years behind

maybe the government will pay to have my LPG removed and an electric drivetrain fitted to me FG falcon

[kmav23]

Many countries have already announced they will ban sale of ICE cars by 2030, Norway by 2025.

All the German car makers and China are moving to electric.

2025 many be a bit early, but 2030 is plenty of time.

Electric cars would be the same price if not cheaper with more features such as autonomy.

[Vesper Martini]

Don't be fooled by the economies of Scale Kmav.
there quite a few other factors that determine automotive pricing.

Consider government tax's (or lack of currently) and the marketplace.

[zipping]

Bill Shorten will impose an *aggressive pollution cap on *industry and business if elected, in a bid to meet Labor’s ambitious climate change targets, and will push for half of all new cars sold in Australia to be electric within a decade.

From the Australian which is paywalled.

Everyone means well but the net Co2 savings from electric cars is not that great.

This part of The Greens policy is particularly interesting:

Eliminate tariffs, stamp duty and GST on new electric car sales to make them more affordable, plus three years of free car registration.

Stamp duty and rego are state taxes and GST is paid to the states. So have the Greens discussed their policy with the state governments?

Basically, all pie in the sky dreams.

[GasoLane]

It was probably written by A P Rilfool

[kmav23]

Originally Posted by Bevsta007

Don't be fooled by the economies of Scale Kmav.
there quite a few other factors that determine automotive pricing.

Consider government tax's (or lack of currently) and the marketplace.

EVs will come down in price as car manufacturers are just starting to make EVs where ICE cars been around 100 years.
2025 will be when EVs will be the same price.

[GO FURTHER]

It's not the price of EVs that need to come down... It's the price of the batteries.
Building a car to house an ICE or electric motor is about the same.

As EV production ramps up and demand increases... So will the cost of Lithium and Cobalt stocks.
So EV prices won't fall that rapidly.

Unless manufacturers can develop electrical storage in mass using alternative technologies at a lower cost, those who control the World's Lithium stocks are the real winners.

[fgpsi]

Does this mean i wont be able to get fuel for my XB in 20 years time ?

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

It's not the price of EVs that need to come down... It's the price of the batteries.
Building a car to house an ICE or electric motor is about the same.

As EV production ramps up and demand increases... So will the cost of Lithium and Cobalt stocks.
So EV prices won't fall that rapidly.

Unless manufacturers can develop electrical storage in mass using alternative technologies at a lower cost, those who control the World's Lithium stocks are the real winners.

Who would have thought Bolivia could become a World Power!
17 years ago I traveled the Salar de Uyuni. Its probably all ripped up now for its lithium.
wonder if the Greens thought about that?

[Vesper Martini]

Looks like India have made a deal with the Bolivians. Take a look at the 50 sec mark
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddLp0m5sKbs

[asagaai]

Originally Posted by kmav23

Many countries have already announced they will ban sale of ICE cars by 2030, Norway by 2025.

All the German car makers and China are moving to electric.

2025 many be a bit early, but 2030 is plenty of time.

Electric cars would be the same price if not cheaper with more features such as autonomy.

Although diesel will still be needed for ships, locomotives, B doubles etc, and aviation fuel for jets (electric plane anyone???) no doubt the oil suppliers are doing a bit of a hissy fit at present....

[kmav23]

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

It's not the price of EVs that need to come down... It's the price of the batteries.
Building a car to house an ICE or electric motor is about the same.

As EV production ramps up and demand increases... So will the cost of Lithium and Cobalt stocks.
So EV prices won't fall that rapidly.

Unless manufacturers can develop electrical storage in mass using alternative technologies at a lower cost, those who control the World's Lithium stocks are the real winners.

The cost of lithium-ion batteries has fallen by 80% since 2010. Costs are expected to halve again by 2025

https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/re...-storage-2018/

There is plenty of lithium in the world, in fact lithium prices are currently plunging as investment and supplies increase. Experts predict lithium prices will continue to fall the next few years.

Australia has huge amounts of lithium and cobalt.

[kmav23]

Originally Posted by fgpsi

Does this mean i wont be able to get fuel for my XB in 20 years time ?

correct, there will be black market dealers for fuel.

it will go underground.

[kmav23]

Originally Posted by asagaai

Although diesel will still be needed for ships, locomotives, B doubles etc, and aviation fuel for jets (electric plane anyone???) no doubt the oil suppliers are doing a bit of a hissy fit at present....

Short and medium distances full battery system is possible, for long distance a hybrid system would suit.

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by kmav23

correct, there will be black market dealers for fuel.

it will go underground.

Originally Posted by kmav23

Short and medium distances full battery system is possible, for long distance a hybrid system would suit.

So I guess that you would need black market petrol then ?

[asagaai]

Reality is government will simply regulate away the ability to buy a petrol or diesel domestic vehicles from a date period.

Doubt they will ban petrol/diesel as it will still be required, simply a choking off of domestic petrol/diesel vehicle through natural attrition and inability to buy new such vehicles.

[Uncle_Ken]

Or we could bypass electric and move forward..







UK

[burnz]

but govco isn't interested in EV's

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-...sland/10944402

[PG2]

Originally Posted by kmav23

The cost of lithium-ion batteries has fallen by 80% since 2010. Costs are expected to halve again by 2025

https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/re...-storage-2018/

There is plenty of lithium in the world, in fact lithium prices are currently plunging as investment and supplies increase. Experts predict lithium prices will continue to fall the next few years.

Australia has huge amounts of lithium and cobalt.

I'm sure that they said the same thing about crude oil all those years ago.

While they may indeed be 'plenty' or 'huge amounts' no mineral resource is infinite in this world. Sooner or later it runs out.

What do we do then?

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by PG2

I'm sure that they said the same thing about crude oil all those years ago.

While they may indeed be 'plenty' or 'huge amounts' no mineral resource is infinite in this world. Sooner or later it runs out.

What do we do then?

You can recycle lithium ion batteries, something you can’t do with crude oil.
Come to think of it, we can grow ship loads of sugarcane for ethanol...

[PG2]

Originally Posted by jpd80

You can recycle lithium ion batteries, something you can’t do with crude oil.
Come to think of it, we can grow ship loads of sugarcane for ethanol...

No doubt you can. I suppose what I am getting at, with consumerism do we have enough lithium etc to sustain this technology for the next 1000 years?

The difference is sugarcane is renewable lithium is not.

I understand that new technology will come along but what happens if it doesn't? Do we go back to hydrogen?

Where is this lithium currently? Is it under suburbia or is it out in the country where no one lives? How are we going to pull it out of the ground particularly if it is currently sitting under your favourite suburb?

These above are simply questions and certainly not statements, and no, I don't pretend to have the answers either.

[zipping]

Originally Posted by PG2

No doubt you can. I suppose what I am getting at, with consumerism do we have enough lithium etc to sustain this technology for the next 1000 years?

Why would it need to last 1000 years?

Technology gets replaced/refined over time. The pace of changes in last 20 years is pretty good, confident this will continue.

I suppose we better keep horses around just in case

Anyway, its a good problem to have, imagine what someone living in the 1890's would think. They had oil but didn't even know all its uses. imo there are many natural and renewable resources that we haven't realised the potential of.

[jpd80]

Funny thing about predictions, no one in 2030 will remember the stupid ones

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by PG2

No doubt you can. I suppose what I am getting at, with consumerism do we have enough lithium etc to sustain this technology for the next 1000 years?

The difference is sugarcane is renewable lithium is not.

I understand that new technology will come along but what happens if it doesn't? Do we go back to hydrogen?

Where is this lithium currently? Is it under suburbia or is it out in the country where no one lives? How are we going to pull it out of the ground particularly if it is currently sitting under your favourite suburb?

These above are simply questions and certainly not statements, and no, I don't pretend to have the answers either.

you do realise that most lithium comes from salt brine and there’s more than we’ll need before the next battery tech comes along, most battery manufacturers are working on next gen beyond lithium but want max return on investment before moving on
Fortunately Australia is leader in lithium exports, ours comes from ore deposit in WA called Greenbushes

[Syndrome]

They won't take away my Falcon!

[wodahs]

Originally Posted by fgpsi

Does this mean i wont be able to get fuel for my XB in 20 years time ?

Originally Posted by kmav23

correct, there will be black market dealers for fuel.

it will go underground.

but ......
fuel was underground !!!

yep if this was how the case went my ZH would learn to love sucking suger cane eth

[Syndrome]

This will be me if that day arrives

[Ben73]

Who cares what the NRMA wants. Shorten wants 50% of cars to be electric by 2030. That has more weight than the NRMA