vFacts December 2020 and the end of year summary

[Syndrome]

https://www.caradvice.com.au/913476/...ar-since-2003/

Party like it is 2003!

[Sprintey]

Toyota then daylight. Check out the numbers of Cruisers and Prados in December...

Only 506 Yaris (ha!) but then you see over 500 Yaris Cross in the SUV section (ah, they know what they are doing, and people will pay)

Over 1000 CH-Rs

A Bazillion RAV4s

Also:

"Sales of pure electric cars (not including Tesla, which does not supply figures) were up by 97.8 per cent, from 91 in December 2019 to 180 in December 2020."

What would it be with Tesla included? Any of those MG electric SUVs included in that?

[Sprintey]

SUV's over 51% of the market in their pyramid graph

Ford's SUVs, especially the car-like ones, have been a bit of a non event, in the biggest sector of the market. If only they'd kept and sufficiently upgraded/ innovated the Territory...

[ozrunner]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

.....Sales of pure electric cars (not including Tesla, which does not supply figures) were up by 97.8 per cent, from 91 in December 2019 to 180 in December 2020."

What would it be with Tesla included? Any of those MG electric SUVs included in that?

Basically zero compared to ICE sales. In 11 months of 2020 EV sales represented 0.2% of ICE sales. Even including Teslas sales they still wouldn't get to 0.5%. A bit embarrasing as its a part figure not even worth reporting.

Yet some idiots still believe EV's will shortly outsell ICE.

[oldel]

The people that bought the ecosport and mondeo in Dec should have been gifted a bottle of wine or champagne, a hotel getaway voucher, giftcard or something as reward for ford not having to submit a embarrassing 0

EcoSport – 2
Endura – 69
Escape – 390
Everest – 587
Fiesta – 53
Focus – 95
Mondeo – 1
Mustang – 334
Puma – 130
Ranger 4X2 – 390
Ranger 4X4 – 3875
Transit Custom – 236
Transit Heavy – 144
Ford Total – 6306

Mr, Mrs, Miss or Ms mondeo 12/20 please reply and announce your presence

[Rob 351]

How things have changed. In the large car segment under 70k, Commodore was the 3rd highest seller, with 1 unit sold....
No one in there wildest dreams would have seen this even 10 years ago..
1. Kia Stinger 117
2. Skoda Superb 33
3. Commodore 1

[Wretched]

Originally Posted by ozrunner

Basically zero compared to ICE sales. In 11 months of 2020 EV sales represented 0.2% of ICE sales. Even including Teslas sales they still wouldn't get to 0.5%. A bit embarrasing as its a part figure not even worth reporting.

Yet some idiots still believe EV's will shortly outsell ICE.

I think there is some context missing here.
At the moment in Australia BEVs aren't selling all that many on figures alone.

• We in Australia don't get a whole lot of EVs in our market. Tesla, Nissan Leaf, Audi Etron, Mercedes EQC, Hyundai Kona, etc. Single models.
• What we do get is quite expensive, just a quick look on car sales, the cheapest is around 40k new.
• Australia has given little to no incentive to move into a BEV vehicle, whether that is through financial incentives or even charging points. Why would you buy one if you are limited to where it can be charged? Australia is so far behind the 8 ball it is laughable.

I'd personally go for a hybrid, may be PHEV, it is a good stepping stone into a full BEV.

I don't think the short term (5-10yrs) many car makers will offer pure petrol, they will be Hybrid of some sort to comply with emissions regulations that continue to get stricter. From that, Australia will be forced into a transition into Hybrids then into BEV.

[Syndrome]

Originally Posted by Rob 351

How things have changed. In the large car segment under 70k, Commodore was the 3rd highest seller, with 1 unit sold....
No one in there wildest dreams would have seen this even 10 years ago..
1. Kia Stinger 117
2. Skoda Superb 33
3. Commodore 1

The Toyota Camry is a large car. Why isn't it included in this segment?

[Rob 351]

Originally Posted by Syndrome

The Toyota Camry is a large car. Why isn't it included in this segment?

It’s classed as a Medium size car according to the above article. Similar to the Mazda 6.

[ozrunner]

Originally Posted by Wretched

.......I don't think the short term (5-10yrs) many car makers will offer pure petrol, they will be Hybrid of some sort to comply with emissions regulations that continue to get stricter. From that, Australia will be forced into a transition into Hybrids then into BEV.

Mate you are making assumptions just like many others that don't stack up against current facts.

Due to Covid looking at the past total 2019 car sales of just Toyota, VW, Hyundai, GM and Ford they sold 42.1 million cars in 2019 and including all the remaining car manufacturers this figure would probably be over 50 million even after deducting their EV's. Google also says the total global 2019 EV sales only topped 2.2m in 2019.

Mate, no offence but your assumption is so far off the mark it's basically comedy. Do you honestly think these major car manufacturers are going to decide to go broke by just making EV's in 5-10 years time. That will be Musk's swan song.

There are a host of worldwide EV projections on the net made by both sides of the fence and those in between and they all reflect that ICE will be with us for some time to come, eg some are saying EV's MAY represent 50% of all vehicles sold by 2050. It is also not inconceivable that EV's may also be old news by then.

As I've previously said that will suit me as I will probably be dead but having driven my ICE until then.

[Wretched]

Originally Posted by ozrunner

Mate you are making assumptions just like many others that don't stack up against current facts.

Happy for you to correct me where i am wrong. I said hybrids not full BEV.
Euro 6D TEMP and 6D standards in right now and are causing the OEMs some headaches. EURO7 is in draft mode now.
In a nutshell it is going to be very difficult to pass emissions on pure gasoline/petrol cars alone.
https://www.theaa.com/driving-advice...ions-standards
https://www.caradvice.com.au/882922/...y-2030-report/

Due to Covid looking at the past total 2019 car sales of just Toyota, VW, Hyundai, GM and Ford they sold 42.1 million cars in 2019 and including all the remaining car manufacturers this figure would probably be over 50 million even after deducting their EV's. Google also says the total global 2019 EV sales only topped 2.2m in 2019.

Mate, no offence but your assumption is so far off the mark it's basically comedy. Do you honestly think these major car manufacturers are going to decide to go broke by just making EV's in 5-10 years time. That will be Musk's swan song.

I am not clear of the assumption i made. EVs are coming and when manufacturers are spending lots of $$ in R&D to develop them then you need to take it seriously. Ford spent billions developing their electric Mustang and have established a partnership with Rivian for future projects.
Volvo is going all electric - "Every new Volvo car launched from 2019 onwards will have an electric motor." "Over the next five years, we will launch a fully electric car every year as we aim to make all-electric cars 50 per cent of global sales by 2025, with the rest hybrids."

Not forgetting all the countries phasing out petrol cars over the next 20 - 30 years.
https://carpart.com.au/blog/car-part...-leads-in-2025
With that coming (and the looming Euro7), it would be very hard for OEM's to justify too many more non hybrid based vehicles.

FYI Norway just had over 50% of their new cars sold as BEV - https://europe.autonews.com/automake...4-market-share

There are a host of worldwide EV projections on the net made by both sides of the fence and those in between and they all reflect that ICE will be with us for some time to come, eg some are saying EV's MAY represent 50% of all vehicles sold by 2050. It is also not inconceivable that EV's may also be old news by then.

As I've previously said that will suit me as I will probably be dead but having driven my ICE until then.

You are free to enjoy your ICE, but their days as new cars are numbered, esp non Hybrid, PHEV will extend the life of the ICE. If OEMs won't continue investing in them then you're pretty much limited. Australia has very little say in cars worldwide now.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by Syndrome

The Toyota Camry is a large car. Why isn't it included in this segment?

The Aurion, or Camry 6 cyl, was considered to be a large car, whilst the Camry 4 was considered a medium sized car. Not sure how the engine size alone (given same body size) determined the class.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

The Aurion, or Camry 6 cyl, was considered to be a large car, whilst the Camry 4 was considered a medium sized car. Not sure how the engine size alone (given same body size) determined the class.

The 2L falcon was never classed as a medium car. It's been one of those weird things vfacts does for years.

[ozrunner]

I could elaborate further but we're getting off topic so my last comment.

Happy for you to correct me where i am wrong. I said hybrids not full BEV.

.... it is a good stepping stone into a full BEV... transition into Hybrids then into BEV.

Whatever you say

Mate, links you provide laud Norway for its EV take up and also it's proposal to remove ICE from 2025. Do you not find this a tad hypocritical considering Norway is the worlds 8th largest oil producer and they export most of it to other countries as its a cash cow !!!!! Classic NIMBY syndrome and hard to give them any credence.

Then you highlight 10 countries that are listed as phasing out ICE anywhere from 2030-50 when it only means registration of new cars from those times so new ICE cars will still be needed up until 2030-50 and then used beyond.

As I said ICE will be with us and especially in Oz for a long time yet.

[Wretched]

Originally Posted by ozrunner

I could elaborate further but we're getting off topic so my last comment.

Happy for you to correct me where i am wrong. I said hybrids not full BEV.

.... it is a good stepping stone into a full BEV... transition into Hybrids then into BEV.

Whatever you say

Yep, exactly what I said, proof is in the sales too. Seen RAV4 Hybrid sales lately?

Mate, links you provide laud Norway for its EV take up and also it's proposal to remove ICE from 2025. Do you not find this a tad hypocritical considering Norway is the worlds 8th largest oil producer and they export most of it to other countries as its a cash cow !!!!! Classic NIMBY syndrome and hard to give them any credence.

My comments are not focused on the environmental aspect of EVs, that is a grey area, my comments were around sales of electric cars. They are heavily incentivising it and along with other countries moving to a non petrol future, this will influence car makers, whether you like it or not.

Then you highlight 10 countries that are listed as phasing out ICE anywhere from 2030-50 when it only means registration of new cars from those times so new ICE cars will still be needed up until 2030-50 and then used beyond.

As I said ICE will be with us and especially in Oz for a long time yet.

Erm, you're aware of how long it takes to develop an engine? It isn't overnight and the company will expect a healthy ROI, normally over years.
2030 onwards may be long away for you, but to car makers that isn't far and are planning for product now. If you cannot sell a product to a major market (those listed) as they ban that particular engine then there is no incentive to invest in a new engine. Adding to this is the upcoming Euro 7 compliance. Again heavy investment.

Australia? pfft, a backwater, selling stuff all cars and not worth the hassle. We sold 900k cars in 2019 and 2020. The UK sold 1.7m in 2020 that was a 30% reduction due to COVID. ICE will be here as long as companies are willing to send refined fuel and consumers are willing to pay. New ICE (non Hybrid) will begin to decline as car companies try to wean consumers off ICE.

[russellw]

The December stats are now available in the Tech portal.

[russellw]

The 4th Quarter Supplementary Stats are also now uploaded to the portal.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by russellw

The December stats are now available in the Tech portal.

Unless ive misread something here you might want to look at some of your numbers Russ, Puma didnt get anywhere near 570 in December with 130 sold nor did Escape get 453.

[naddis01]

I see the Ranger has outsold the Hilux in terms of 4x4 sales.

I Mustang sales are down 26% for the year which I guess isn't too bad considering 2020 happened, the style of vehicle and where it is in its life cycle. I see the RAM 1500 (yes I know if is a different type of vehicle) outsold the Mustang this year.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Unless ive misread something here you might want to look at some of your numbers Russ, Puma didnt get anywhere near 570 in December with 130 sold nor did Escape get 453.

Yes, I went cross-eyed and picked the annual numbers for Puma and used the November figure for the other. I've checked the rest of the SUV ones and can't find any other errors.

[russellw]

The Annual Summary has now been posted into the Tech portal.

[jpd80]

Russell, can you please check the "December stats" and in particular, the ute 4x2 & 4x4 spreadsheet versus the 4x2 and 4x4 bar graphs directly below. Some of the figures for Hilux & Ranger don't look right.

So much work goes into those reports, you really are a champion

[russellw]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Russell, can you please check the "December stats" and in particular, the ute 4x2 & 4x4 spreadsheet versus the 4x2 and 4x4 bar graphs directly below. Some of the figures for Hilux & Ranger don't look right.

So much work goes into those reports, you really are a champion

Thanks. I can't see anything wrong - the first chart is for combined 4x4 & 4x2 sales rather than just 4x2 on their own while the second drills down on 4x4. The numbers in the graph fit with those in the table as far as I can see and I've checked that data against the source and it looks correct.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

So much work goes into those reports, you really are a champion

Agreed, between the work he does in the Covid thread and this its not surprising the occasional blip appears, a great effort either way.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by russellw

Thanks. I can't see anything wrong - the first chart is for combined 4x4 & 4x2 sales rather than just 4x2 on their own while the second drills down on 4x4. The numbers in the graph fit with those in the table as far as I can see and I've checked that data against the source and it looks correct.

The 2020 totals for Hilux and Ranger in the spread sheet are 45,176 and 40,976
but the combined bar charts for 2019/2020 say, Hilux = 43,732 / 39,604 and Ranger = 37,612 / 36,708

If the bar chart is combined 4x2 and 4x4 figures, should they not be the same as the totals in the spreadsheet directly above?

Same goes for the 4x4 only bar graph....

[russellw]

As usual, the simplest explanation is the best one. I checked my data rather than looking at the thread and all that was wrong is that the links to the charts still referenced the November ones. Should be fixed now.

[russellw]

The 2020 Segment Analysis is now also uploaded to the portal.