Driving will be illegal by 2050, says new study

[FTE217]

Less is more - Cuba is cool.
They have a great car scene.
Would teach our western world a lesson or 2 re greed and advancements that are screwing us up....

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by LG17

Thank goodness I'll be dead and gone by then...

Same here

[jpd80]

It’s easy to make predictions well in to the future knowing that no one will remember them,
I wonder what car predictions were made in 1991 and how they stack up with today’s reality.

[Bossxr8]

Vic government would hate it, cause they are addicted to speeding fine revenue. No doubt they will work on other ways to fleece the motorist. Autonomous car tax or something.

[Citroënbender]

The first bridge has been recently crossed, with reasonable success. Restriction of movement throughout much of the country.

Once people become accepting of a slightly modified version of this, where they log their intended destination(s) via an app and the government software says it’s “safe to go” (or “stay home”) then the journey will be monitored as well. It become mostly pointless to self drive as remote enforcement with heavy penalties will make autonomous vehicles the fine-free option.

[Wretched]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

The first bridge has been recently crossed, with reasonable success. Restriction of movement throughout much of the country.

Once people become accepting of a slightly modified version of this, where they log their intended destination(s) via an app and the government software says it’s “safe to go” (or “stay home”) then the journey will be monitored as well. It become mostly pointless to self drive as remote enforcement with heavy penalties will make autonomous vehicles the fine-free option.

[wodahs]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

The first bridge has been recently crossed, with reasonable success. Restriction of movement throughout much of the country.

Once people become accepting of a slightly modified version of this, where they log their intended destination(s) via an app and the government software says it’s “safe to go” (or “stay home”) then the journey will be monitored as well. It become mostly pointless to self drive as remote enforcement with heavy penalties will make autonomous vehicles the fine-free option.

please don't bring the coved thread here
and no I (and I'd assume heaps of others) would kick a huge fuss at being tracked at ever bowl movement

[Crazy Dazz]

Originally Posted by kypez

We don't have a manufacturing industry and if the rest of the world goes autonomous,

Hate to break it to ya, but the world aint going autonomous.

People seem to confuse Automation and Autonomous.

Cruise-Control has been reasonably common (even in Australia) for over 30 years. Yet never has it relieved the driver of the legal obligation to not run into things. ABS braking sure made it easier to not hit the car in front, but it's still your fault in you do.
We have a car that slows down when there's a car in front, keeps the car within its lane, alerts me when I fail to control the wheel, and will emergency-brake when required. But it's STILL my fault if I have an accident.
Automated trucks are now increasing common in mining. But that's because they are Big, slow, and it doesn't make much difference. Reality is that an Automated Truck with a multitude of sensors is probably safer that a single driver with very limited visibility. They still kill cows, but human drivers did that anyway.

Also have to remember that in most of the world there is literally no pressure to replace human drivers, and in many cases the exact opposite

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Crazy Dazz

Hate to break it to ya, but the world aint going autonomous.



People seem to confuse Automation and Autonomous.



Cruise-Control has been reasonably common (even in Australia) for over 30 years. Yet never has it relieved the driver of the legal obligation to not run into things. ABS braking sure made it easier to not hit the car in front, but it's still your fault in you do.

We have a car that slows down when there's a car in front, keeps the car within its lane, alerts me when I fail to control the wheel, and will emergency-brake when required. But it's STILL my fault if I have an accident.

Automated trucks are now increasing common in mining. But that's because they are Big, slow, and it doesn't make much difference. Reality is that an Automated Truck with a multitude of sensors is probably safer that a single driver with very limited visibility. They still kill cows, but human drivers did that anyway.



Also have to remember that in most of the world there is literally no pressure to replace human drivers, and in many cases the exact opposite

I said "if".

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

[Mowdit]

Govco can't get rid of smoking/vaping, alcohol or illicit drugs.........
There's a reason for this and it isn't financial !

I like the idea of a Cuba style future, more effort put into looking after your aging vehicle

Self driving cars could end up like mobile phones, thrown away because "oh look, there's the new shiny model"

[Burnout]

And Dams will never fill again.
Rain will never hit the ground again, et al, ad infinitum.

Some drone somewhere with a degree in 'something' all of a sudden decides they are a brilliant 'futurist'. Poor bugger doesn't even know if they'll have a job next week.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

The first bridge has been recently crossed, with reasonable success. Restriction of movement throughout much of the country.

Once people become accepting of a slightly modified version of this, where they log their intended destination(s) via an app and the government software says it’s “safe to go” (or “stay home”) then the journey will be monitored as well. It become mostly pointless to self drive as remote enforcement with heavy penalties will make autonomous vehicles the fine-free option.

and didn't people just take to it like a fish to water

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Mowdit

Self driving cars could end up like mobile phones, thrown away because "oh look, there's the new shiny model"

I think that is the model proposed by many and a move away from our traditional ownership model towards a ride share type model.

FWIW, I like the level we are at now where the car can take care of the mundane highway miles and I still get to enjoy the fun stuff. I lament the day (if) we go fully driverless.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Mowdit

Self driving cars could end up like mobile phones, thrown away because "oh look, there's the new shiny model"

And further, we already do that now! People keep them for 3 years and then trade up to the next new shiny car. I don't think this is something exclusive to Self Driving cars. Its happening right now bar a few of us tragics that have the last Falcons that we are keeping forever now.

[Franco Cozzo]

All these normies (non car enthusiasts) thinking tomorrow we're going to have driverless cars, can't even get phone reception 70km out of Melbourne let alone have cars drive themselves around.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

All these normies (non car enthusiasts) thinking tomorrow we're going to have driverless cars, can't even get phone reception 70km out of Melbourne let alone have cars drive themselves around.

Difference is one is being developed just for us vs tech that is being developed globally.

Normies, as you have coined, are the 99%... Sadly.

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by kypez

We don't have a manufacturing industry and if the rest of the world goes autonomous, we have no choice or end up looking like Cuba did for decades.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

Cuba with AUs, island paradise

[wodahs]

Originally Posted by kypez

end up looking like Cuba did for decades.

Originally Posted by Sprintey

Cuba with AUs, island paradise

autonomous it is then
nobody expects to be able to keep an AU going for decades a decade

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

Cuba with AUs, island paradise

Please stop the planet, I want to hop off

[FroudeyBrand]

I highly doubt this will happen unless at some point a tesla or other elec car will be able to be brought at normal person prices (talking $500/ $2K etc)

[AMB]

Originally Posted by FroudeyBrand

I highly doubt this will happen unless at some point a tesla or other elec car will be able to be brought at normal person prices (talking $500/ $2K etc)

It wont be completely illegal to drive, you will be able to get a special permit, it will be called a driving license

It makes me think, does it mean in 50 years time you will be waiting at the red light, glance over at the car next to you, and there's a 8 year old kid at the controls?

Being serious for a moment, we are getting way ahead of ourselves. I dont think it can go completely autonomous for a long time, still needs a lot of work. I can see the next step being transmitters in all the traffic signs etc, for example the car will know you are in a 60 km/hr zone, so will not let you go faster than 60. Or the traffic light will broadcast it is going to change red in X seconds, and your car will calculate whether to keep going or stop. Basic information sharing between cars would be a good idea too.

Debatable whether an emergency override switch would be a good idea. Press it, all your lights start flashing, horn honking, and you can go faster than posted speed. Might end up as total embarassment for whoever suggested it, with half the cars on the road driving like that.

[Crazy Dazz]

Originally Posted by kypez

vs tech that is being developed globally.

and again, you're confusing Automation with Autonomous.
There's a lot of tech we have now, that we didn't have even 30 years ago. And it will continue to get better, and to get cheaper, that's how technology works. But it doesn't matter how much "tech" you cram into a car, its still just a car.

In case you hadn't noticed, car companies love to talk about all the wondrous new tech they're developing, all the while selling us the same old crap they always have. In reality there is NO great push towards fully autonomous cars.

I imagine it would be relatively easy to build a dunny that wipes your **** for ya, but nobody has done it. The demand isn't there (most of the world doesn't even wipe their ****) and the risks and costs outweigh the benefits.

You must remember that the whole precept of automation is that of a "machine" doing something better than a human. (Be that faster, more accurate, safer, cheaper.) Apart from gimmickry, nobody bothers to automate anything where the machine is at a disadvantage.

When I studied Engineering, UWA had a "Robotic Sheep-Shearing" project. Like a lot of things Australian Universities still did in those days, it was a cutting edge study in robotics. But that's all it was. Essentially they set the most difficult challenge they could think off, and Post-Grads studied ways of solving that challenge. Nobody ever expected it to actually eventuate in robotic sheep-shearing, that was never the point.

Automation Studies (including building "Autonomous" Vehicles) has already resulted in many new technologies found on modern cars, and will continue to do so. That's why Car Companies study it.
Whilst I don't know if legislation will actually allow it, I'd suggest that at some point we'll see implementations where cars can cruise on a "sealed" freeway under their own control, bumper to bumper, at 200kph. But that's still not going to replace a driver.
And what you're not going to see is a car that can pick you up, and take you to the local supermarket.
(I suppose it's possible you could see something like a "Granny-Mobile" that collects frail and disabled people, and tootles around at 20kph stopping for every pigeon and leaf, but nobody else is going to want one. And most would-be users would still prefer an Uber.)

Keep in mind that the in the biggest motoring nation on earth, the most popular vehicle is still a pickup truck. And it also happens be a country where they'll mount a class-action lawsuit if you so much as fart in the wrong direction.
Do you know why the USA was the most vigorous early adopter of airbags? Because drivers in the US don't have to wear the seatbelts provided, and yet when they got injured, successfully sued auto-makers that hadn't installed airbags.

And I come back to the point, that if you look at the majority of the world, the prospect of even limited autonomy is hundreds of years away, if even then. What people seem to forget is that most of the world can't even afford cars or decent roads.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Crazy Dazz

and again, you're confusing Automation with Autonomous.
There's a lot of tech we have now, that we didn't have even 30 years ago. And it will continue to get better, and to get cheaper, that's how technology works. But it doesn't matter how much "tech" you cram into a car, its still just a car.

In case you hadn't noticed, car companies love to talk about all the wondrous new tech they're developing, all the while selling us the same old crap they always have. In reality there is NO great push towards fully autonomous cars.

I imagine it would be relatively easy to build a dunny that wipes your **** for ya, but nobody has done it. The demand isn't there (most of the world doesn't even wipe their ****) and the risks and costs outweigh the benefits.

You must remember that the whole precept of automation is that of a "machine" doing something better than a human. (Be that faster, more accurate, safer, cheaper.) Apart from gimmickry, nobody bothers to automate anything where the machine is at a disadvantage.

When I studied Engineering, UWA had a "Robotic Sheep-Shearing" project. Like a lot of things Australian Universities still did in those days, it was a cutting edge study in robotics. But that's all it was. Essentially they set the most difficult challenge they could think off, and Post-Grads studied ways of solving that challenge. Nobody ever expected it to actually eventuate in robotic sheep-shearing, that was never the point.

Automation Studies (including building "Autonomous" Vehicles) has already resulted in many new technologies found on modern cars, and will continue to do so. That's why Car Companies study it.
Whilst I don't know if legislation will actually allow it, I'd suggest that at some point we'll see implementations where cars can cruise on a "sealed" freeway under their own control, bumper to bumper, at 200kph. But that's not going to replace a driver.
And what you're not going to see is car that can pick you up, and take you to the local supermarket.

Keep in mind that the in the biggest motoring nation on earth, the most popular vehicle is still a pickup truck. And it also happens be a country where they'll mount a class-action lawsuit if you so much as fart in the wrong direction.
Do you know why the USA was the most vigorous early adopter of airbags? Because drivers in the US don't have to wear the seatbelts provided, and yet when they got injured, successfully sued auto-makers that hadn't installed airbags.

And I come back to the point, that if you look at the majority of the world, the prospect of even limited autonomy is hundreds of years away, if even then. What people seem to forget is that most of the world can't even afford cars or decent roads.

You jump to a lot of assumptions and misquote people or take them out of context.

I'll spell it out for you.

My comment about about "If the rest of the world develops cars" was with respect to the comment made that it would take a brave politician to introduce any driverless technology. "It would take a very strong political leader to even entertain the idea of proposing a law to making driving illegal in Australia.
Most politicians prefer to get re-elected."

Again, this time, I'm merely saying that there is a difference between tech being developed for Australia by a local company that is being lazy vs global development which will have much better outcomes. Just look at the Tesla/Merecedes/Volvo systems in 2014-2016 vs my FGX which had no form of advanced Cruise Control (nor did the VF for that matter though it had some radar ability). Local development vs global development has much different outcomes.

Now please stop being condescending, if you can.

[tweeked]

I can see when this day has come, one night a software update is released, and someone in in Government Motoring Control forgot to un tick the left hand drive default tick box. Half the cars get the update, half are not on wifi and don't. Next morning.........

[Late braker]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

We can hope.

image

Fine with me.. I’ll add my BF XR6 to the back of that queue.