Potential Big GFC Discussion Thread

[FTe342]

We already did the pro & cons of precious metals in the other thread

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by Professor Farnsworth

i've changed the OP's thread title to something less 'end of the world/nuclear bunker' type deal.

Bugger, and here I was about to stock up on tinned food and water and head out into the bush 'till it all goes away!!

[buggerlugs]

Originally Posted by GasOLane

Bugger, and here I was about to stock up on tinned food and water and head out into the bush 'till it all goes away!!

Were you on your way to meet "Resurrection" ;-)

[Bent8]

Originally Posted by CJR09

or silver?

Now that the world's Gold supplies are running low and the price has become un-affordable for the average Joe, Silver is the next best thing.

There's been a 5 fold increase in the price of Gold in the last 10 years but most of that is thanks to money devaluation...just remember that when you put down your hard-earned for either of the precious metals.

Also make sure you have physical holdings, not just a paper contract.

[z80]

The Dow is down 400 points again tonight.

Sure are really wild oscillations in the share market at the moment.

[thedutchman92]

Mass hysteria has and always will run the market. It looks like modern capitalism (as we know it) may not be as infallible as it was once thought. The reality is America is a sinking ship, will it pull us all in with it's wake?

[BA GT-HO]

US stocks are down 4.6% overnight - cue the negative team.

I would hate to be a stock trader right now. One minute its good the next it's bad.

[trippytaka]

Originally Posted by BA GT-HO

US stocks are down 4.6% overnight - cue the negative team.

I would hate to be a stock trader right now. One minute its good the next it's bad.

haha, that made me laugh out loud. Someone should graph the positive comments vs the negative ones in this thread and then put the peaks and troughs of activity up against the market fluctuations.

I hadn't heard about the US stocks, but the European market is talking about a downgrade of France. Can someone please explain these rumours? I thought France was pretty solid... saw an interview a while ago about a possible way forward for teh EU where they split it into "premier league" and "1st Division" - basically the stroong economies (germany et al) and then weaker ones separates. Anyway, France was mentioned as one of the best performers.

This whole thing is very confusing.

QUESTION: How much money can the USA print as part of a QE before inflation goes nuts?

[geckoGT]

Originally Posted by trippytaka

QUESTION: How much money can the USA print as part of a QE before inflation goes nuts?

That is a very scary question for any Australian, I am sure the AUD being worth $2US is not a good prospect.

[trippytaka]

Originally Posted by geckoGT

That is a very scary question for any Australian, I am sure the AUD being worth $2US is not a good prospect.

yeah that would be interesting for exporters

[trippytaka]

Very interesting reading here from teh NYT. Interesting idea on making some revenue from the masses of empty property in the US.

I think it's a good idea, as it woul dhelp bring some life and sould back to some of those neighbourhoods.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/11/bu...imes&seid=auto

WASHINGTON — Uncle Sam wants you — to rent a house from Uncle Sam.

The Obama administration said on Wednesday that it was soliciting ideas on how to turn the federal government’s inventory of foreclosed houses into rental properties that could be managed by private enterprises or sold in bulk.

The goal, the administration said, is to stabilize neighborhoods where large supplies of empty, foreclosed properties have hurt property values. In addition, the plan is an effort to clear the nation’s balance sheet of real estate holdings that, because they have been difficult to sell individually, have hung over the housing market and stunted sales of existing homes and new construction.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, the Department of Housing and Development and the Treasury Department are jointly requesting ideas for sales, partnership ventures or other strategies that would help to unload approximately 250,000 properties owned by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration. Those properties account for about half of all properties that have been foreclosed upon and are still awaiting resale nationwide.

As it considers the proposals, the government-sponsored enterprises that now own the houses will continue to offer individual properties for sale, Edward J. DeMarco, acting director of housing finance agency, said Wednesday. But the government says it believes that given the slow pace of those sales, it must find new ways in which properties can be pooled, sold and privately managed as rentals.

Greater flexibility in disposing of the houses will have other benefits as well, Timothy F. Geithner, the Treasury secretary, said. “Exploring new options for selling these foreclosed properties will help expand access to affordable rental housing, promote private investment in local housing markets and support neighborhood and home price stability,” he said in a statement announcing the new program.

While home prices have remain depressed since the 2008 financial crisis, rental prices have not come down. The Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University reported in the spring that more than 10 million households — or one-quarter of all renters — pay more than half their income for housing, a record level.

“We have to find and promote new ways to alleviate the strain on the affordable rental market,” Shaun Donovan, secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, said.

John Taylor, president of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, said in an interview that an added benefit of such a program would be the creation of construction jobs for rehabilitation of the properties.

The Obama administration and Congress have been working on plans to wind down Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which the government took over in 2008 as losses on loans guaranteed by the agencies expanded.

Of the 248,000 homes owned by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the F.H.A. at the end of June, 70,000 were listed for sale, said Corinne Russell, a housing finance agency spokeswoman. The remainder were not yet on the market or the agencies had already received an offer from a prospective buyer.

But it is possible that hundreds of thousands of more homes that are now in the foreclosure process could come into the possession of the federal government in the next few years, housing experts say.

“This is a call for innovation and an opportunity for businesses to not only make money and create jobs, but also provide affordable rental housing for those who need it and strengthen our communities at the same time,” said Senator Jack Reed, Democrat of Rhode Island, who has pushed for such a program.

The proposals are at an early stage, and there is no guarantee that any such programs will go forward. After considering the responses to the request for information, which are due by Sept. 15, the entities may issue a request for proposals to put specific programs in place either jointly or separately.

Among the strategies on which the administration is seeking comment are rent-to-own programs, in which previous homeowners or current renters could lease properties as a path to ownership, and ways in which the properties can be used to support affordable housing.

[MAD]

Interesting regarding the rental prices staying high

[trippytaka]

Originally Posted by MAD

Interesting regarding the rental prices staying high

Same! That was extremely interesting.

[Scott]

Originally Posted by trippytaka

Same! That was extremely interesting.

Over the last few months, rental vacancies in my suburb have dropped by almost 60%. My tenants [here and down south] are telling me they're in with me for the long haul... now I best go touch some wood.

The near future is looking pretty reasonable for land lords at the moment.

[trippytaka]

This is quite interesting: http://www.buzzfeed.com/lenkendall/u...ined-uh-oh-wh6

[AMGC63]

The US report on rental prices and housing shows just how vastly different their climate is to ours.
Theyre stocks dropped again yesterday, ours rose 2.5%..
While ever we have positive population growth in Australia there will always be demand for NEW housing.
Typically when people stop buying they turn to renting, therefore competition for rental properties increases along with rent..

[Professor Farnsworth]

Originally Posted by trippytaka

This is quite interesting: http://www.buzzfeed.com/lenkendall/u...ined-uh-oh-wh6

bingo!

[dave289]

Originally Posted by trippytaka

This is quite interesting: http://www.buzzfeed.com/lenkendall/u...ined-uh-oh-wh6

I was going to post yesterday that I was going to try and think of a way to explain things so that evryone could understand and was then going to ask you to give me until next week. Looks like I dont have to worry about that anymore .

[trippytaka]

Australia jobless rate up to 5.1%

THE unemployment rate rose for the first time since mid-2010 in July, confirming that conditions in parts of the economy not exposed to the mining boom have slowed down.

The higher-than-expected number could raise chances of a possible cut in interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia, especially if global markets remain on edge.

The rate of unemployment rose to a higher-than-expected 5.1 per cent in July, from 4.9 per cent in June. The number of employed fell by 100, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said today.

Economists had expected an unemployment rate of 4.9 per cent in July, with the number of employed up 13,750.
The number of people in full-time work fell 22,200 to 8.06 million in July, while the number of people in part-time work rose 22,100 to 3.40 million, the ABS said.

Rob Rennie, head of currency strategy at Westpac, said the weak employment report follows a downturn in job advertising in recent months and a surge in business insolvency over the same period."The market will be focused on the unemployment rate ticking up given the focus on the RBA. The RBA will consider this along with everything else and this is just another piece of information that is pretty weak," he said.

Westpac expects interest rates to be cut in December, while financial markets have priced in aggressive cuts over the next year.

Economists remain sceptical of the argument that interest rate cuts are coming, noting inflation remains a problem.

The jobs report comes after data this week showed consumer confidence plunged to recessionary levels and amid the worst volatility on global share markets since the financial crisis in 2008.

The Australian dollar fell sharply on the report, but then bounced to be even higher levels in moves dealers found hard to explain. By early afternoon, it was trading at $US1.0276, up from $US1.0205 just ahead of the data. In the interim, it traded as low as $US1.0108.

The weak employment data comes as retailers report the worst trading conditions in 50 years, while key sectors like tourism and manufacturing are under pressure due to a high Australian dollar.

Business confidence has been rocked by the recent upheavals in markets and further weakness is anticipated through the end-year period, adding to concerns about job security.

"Most of the leading indicators are also po

[AMGC63]

Originally Posted by dave289

I was going to post yesterday that I was going to try and think of a way to explain things so that evryone could understand and was then going to ask you to give me until next week. Looks like I dont have to worry about that anymore .

I still dont understand what on earth that has to do with Australia and what's happening here??

People need to start living their lives and taking note of their experiences HERE rather than using googled "facts" and continually posting links to weird sites to base their doomed lives on...

Its got to a point here where some people cant even form or explain an opinion or position themselves without having to read it from the internet and post links or quotes.

Their opinion or position is formed totally from what they read on the internet.

Not intellectual dissection or educated learning or comprehension of the situation...

People need to start thinking for themselves rather than believing everything they read that supports their ideas as fact.

[dave289]

Originally Posted by AMGC63

I still dont understand what on earth that has to do with Australia and what's happening here??

People need to start living their lives and taking note of their experiences HERE rather than using googled "facts" and continually posting links to weird sites to base their doomed lives on...

Its got to a point here where some people cant even form or explain an opinion or position themselves without having to read it from the internet and post links, because there opinion or position is formed totally from what they read on the internet.

Not intellectual dissection or educated learning or comprehension of the situation...

People need to start thinking for themselves rather than believing everything they read that supports their ideas as fact.

I guess if you still dont understand , you will before too long .

[AMGC63]

Originally Posted by dave289

I guess if you still dont understand , you will before too long .

I understand as much as i need (and possibly can) to about the Australian economy myself using my own experiences and intelligence.

I dont spend my day trawling the internet for doom and gloom propaganda to post and quote.

Ive formed my opinions from life experience, not what i read on internet propaganda sites.

Ill give far more weight and credit to someone who can articulate and demonstrate they've formed an opinion on the future from personal intelligence and life experience than from someone who is simply cutting and pasting other peoples propaganda and rhetoric from google searches and internet sites.

[dave289]

Originally Posted by AMGC63

I understand as much as i need (and possibly can) to about the Australian economy myself using my own experiences and intelligence.

I dont spend my day trawling the internet for doom and gloom propaganda to post and quote.

Ive formed my opinions from life experience, not what i read on internet propaganda sites.

Ill give far more weight and credit to someone who can articulate and demonstrate they've formed an opinion on the future from personal intelligence and life experience than from someone who is simply cutting and pasting other peoples propaganda and rhetoric from google searches and internet sites.

The thing is I am the one who did form my own opinion ,while everyone else followed the google and media listenining to the bs , they are sheeple like yourself , and cannot think for themselves .

I was the one who actually though for myself and am a greater thinker then you could ever imagine.

I will not be wasting my time to anymore posts and may not respond at all and just sit back and watch the show.

once again

Thanks for coming.

[MAD]

Originally Posted by AMGC63

Ive formed my opinions from life experience, not what i read on internet propaganda sites.

I find this quote amusing, and many others have used a similar line.

Who has lived through a time in history when this many countries were having this much trouble paying off debts this large?


I find it funny that it was quick to be pointed out that 'the negative side' were quiet when the market returned positive. But the sam can now be said for the 'positive side' now that the market has dipped again. No-one really knows what the hell is going to happen. Good luck prediciting anything that involves human nature.

[trippytaka]

Originally Posted by AMGC63

I still dont understand what on earth that has to do with Australia and what's happening here??

People need to start living their lives and taking note of their experiences HERE rather than using googled "facts" and continually posting links to weird sites to base their doomed lives on...

Its got to a point here where some people cant even form or explain an opinion or position themselves without having to read it from the internet and post links or quotes.

Their opinion or position is formed totally from what they read on the internet.

Not intellectual dissection or educated learning or comprehension of the situation...

People need to start thinking for themselves rather than believing everything they read that supports their ideas as fact.

So, you don't believe there is any problem that could affect Oz in this whole mess?

My first logical thought is in a year or two if the output of Eurpoe and America slow, then demand for things out of China slows, which stops the "engine room of our economy."

[AMGC63]

Originally Posted by trippytaka

So, you don't believe there is any problem that could affect Oz in this whole mess?

My first logical thought is in a year or two if the output of Eurpoe and America slow, then demand for things out of China slows, which stops the "engine room of our economy."

I'm not saying there wont be a bit of fall out from it but equally in not basing decisions on my entire life existence and screaming "the sky is falling" from it either...

I believe Australia is far more insulated from the drama's of the US and Europe than you guys have been led to believe.

[MAD]

Originally Posted by AMGC63

I'm not saying there wont be a bit of fall out from it but equally in not basing decisions on my entire life existence and screaming "the sky is falling" from it either...

I believe Australia is far more insulated from the drama's of the US and Europe than you guys have been led to believe.

Looking at it from a purely retail point of view, I think Australia is about as isolated from the US and EU problems as we are from the media reporting of it.
For one thing, consumer confidence is driven by a positive outlook in the world, and a sense of security for the future. Both of which have been taking a hammering due to the reported news of events occuring around the world.
So human nature will have people hold back on their spending.

[AMGC63]

Originally Posted by MAD

Looking at it from a purely retail point of view, I think Australia is about as isolated from the US and EU problems as we are from the media reporting of it.
For one thing, consumer confidence is driven by a positive outlook in the world, and a sense of security for the future. Both of which have been taking a hammering due to the reported news of events occuring around the world.
So human nature will have people hold back on their spending.

BINGO!!!!!!! Give the man a prize.


The highlighted bit is what ive been saying all along, talk up the doom and gloom and its far more likely to happen (self forfilling) than if we promote as positive an environment as we can.
Consumer confidence and consumer spending (retail, housing etc) here holds the key to OUR economic situation and outlook far more than what mess the US is in....

OUR situation and climate is totally DIFFERENT to the US's....

[MAD]

Originally Posted by AMGC63

BINGO!!!!!!! Give the man a prize.


The highlighted bit is what ive been saying all along, talk up the doom and gloom and its far more likely to happen (self forfilling) than if we promote as positive an environment as we can.
Consumer confidence and consumer spending here holds the key to OUR economic situation and outlook far more than what mess the US is in....

OUR situation and climate is totally DIFFERENT to the US's....

There's more to it than just retail though.
Availability of funding from banks, will be influenced by these events, and that lack of availability here will cause reductions to investment.

Any company here that is reliant on sales abroad will be affected by these events. People will be laid off, meaning even less money to spend.

It's not just the media, but it's probably not helping.

[AMGC63]

Originally Posted by MAD

There's more to it than just retail though.
Availability of funding from banks, will be influenced by these events, and that lack of availability here will cause reductions to investment.

Any company here that is reliant on sales abroad will be affected by these events. People will be laid off, meaning even less money to spend.

It's not just the media, but it's probably not helping.

Yes its more complex than that, but we import more than we export, if the $AUD drops off a bit it will make local manufacturing far more viable and possibly create employment opportunity and growth locally which will flow into the economy in a positive way.

Our reliance on OS lending is no where near as great as the US, we are in a far better situation here.