Potential Big GFC Discussion Thread

[Elks]

Originally Posted by trippytaka

Low consumer confidence has been caused, IMO, by the fact that Australians are leveraged to the eyeballs with personal debt and have realise they need to pay it off. They see the rest of the world in trouble and think - "holy bjsus, we're really up to the eyeballs here. We better pay some of that down, just in case."

.....................................

There have been cracks already appearing. I think that the recent events have just amplified it, more than casued it.

Well said Trippy.

[Professor Farnsworth]

yes, speculation and fear is generally what drives the worlds financial markets

[Elks]

Originally Posted by trippytaka

What is going on in Vic? I understand that QLD and would be hurting - natural disasters, tourism... but what's going on in Vic? It's also the state with fast retreating house prices.

As for Vic, the 10+ years of the erosion of the manufacturing sector, this has accelerated in the last 5. Think about the closures and scale downs over the last few years, Pacific Dunlop, SPC, Teson Autoliv, BHP to the west, Various bits of QANTAS, Telstra, ACI, Ford, A year or 2 back I worked out that Vic had lost in excess of 15,000 tier 1 manufacturing jobs, so plus the knock on effect from there. Additionally major projects are few, and those that exist have nothing to replace them once completed.

All this has been offset a steady population increase creating growth. I fear that the lack of industry will create a long term unemployment problem that will in the end even remove us as a place of choice for immigration. And forget retail and services industries. They are legitimate businesses but something need to underpin them. Mining basically stopped here at the end of the gold rush over 100 years ago.

What I know is that I work in transport, and it's not uncommon now to have operator stuck interstate for a few days looking for their next load, something that was rare even 2 years ago.

All the indicators are softening, conversely there is still 22 million, people who need food and clothing and shelter and need t get it from that from somewhere. Who knows what will happen from here.

[vztrt]

http://www.theage.com.au/business/it...812-1ips7.html

It's the people, stupid
August 12, 2011 - 11:15AM

The bottom line is this: 3.5 billion people becoming wealthier beat 300 million wealthy people stagnating. And the really important news is that we're part of the Asian 3.5 billion, not the American 300 million.

Throw in the European 300 million as well if you like and the 3.5 billion still beats 600 million. Market panics come and go, but that most important fundamental driver for the Australian economy doesn't change.



The short-term comfort of the US Federal Reserve maybe printing some more money won't really matter much down the line – it's just another Band-Aid on a wound that needs more serious treatment and even then will take years to heal. The rumourtrage that rocked Europe Wednesday night and kicked on around the world does its passing damage and fades away. The dogs bark and the caravan moves on.
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(And as an aside, it was third-rate rumourtrage anyway – Societe Generale holds relatively little “peripheral” debt and would not be an obvious target for a hedge fund to target, but current markets aren't about logic. And European banks reporting results have already written down their Greek debt to market. Maybe British Sunday newspapers are better off sticking to hacking the phones of celebrities and the dead.)

What is not changed by market gyrations is the urbanisation and industrialisation of the emerging markets. And that's why whether or not the US has a double dip recession doesn't really matter for Australia. Such speculation frightens financial markets, dependent as they remain for now on Wall Street sentiment, but the scares pass after providing opportunities.

There is nothing new about the change in the relative impact on Australia of trouble in other economies. The idea that the world's biggest single economy could slide into recession without taking us with it dies hard, despite the immediate experience of the GFC.

What tends to be missed is that the proportion of global growth provided by the world's biggest seven economies is not what it used to be. The above graph from last week's RBA statement on monetary policy illustrates the relativities – the old industrialised world just ain't what it used to be.

Implications

The implications for Australia are already felt in our greater wealth – our ability to buy more stuff with few Australian dollars. The restructuring of our economy as a result of our terms of trade shock is painful for some, but overall of greater benefit. While the headlines are grabbed by those feeling immediate pain, most of us are quietly better off even though politicians, tabloid media, electricity bills and the price of bananas conspire to convince that us that we're not.

There's also the strange cult of denial about the rise and rise of the emerging world, most clearly seen in the industry devoted to knocking China. You see it with every release of Chinese economic statistics – an apparently deliberate attempt to translate basically strong figures into something terrible.

A better grip can be had by reading a couple of old speeches by RBA assistant Governor Philip Lowe. There was a nice number last September on the risks and returns for Australia in the development of Asia, but if you only have time to read one while panicking, try his October 2009 effort on Asian growth.

Given the present uncertainties about Europe and the US, here are a few relevant sentences:

“One school of thought is that if growth is indeed weak in the advanced economies, then growth in Asia will inevitably also be weak, particularly given the role that US and other western consumers are often credited with as a driver of growth in the region.

“Undoubtedly, there is an element of truth here. Slower growth in the advanced economies will inevitably weigh on growth in Asia. The business cycles of the major regions of the world are clearly interconnected, and the ups and downs in one part of the world have an effect in other parts of the world.

“But importantly this is not the end of the story. These interconnections do not mean that Asia must inevitably experience a marked reduction in its medium-term growth trajectory. As we have seen recently, the region has the capability to grow strongly through domestic, not external, demand. This really should not come as a surprise.

“After all, the US economy, with a few hundred million people, has grown for many decades largely on the back of domestic, rather than foreign, demand. There is no reason that the approximately three-and-a-half billion people in Asia cannot do the same. It ultimately comes down to the policy choices that are made.”

China has a long way to go in implementing those appropriate policy choices, but they're working on it.

Flicking the switch

Extrapolating Lowe's reference to America's great wealth surge coming from domestic consumption, it's possible to draw a parallel between the US straight after the second world war and China today. The US flicked the switch from a war economy – arguably a control economy with an emphasis on manufactured exports, albeit planes, guns and bombs – to a consumption driven super power. China is a control economy that has had an emphasis on manufactured exports, but is rapidly moving up the value chain and is now being forced to be more serious about domestic consumption.

Australia, with its “advantage of adjacency”, happily is part of the process. Right now, it's about providing bulk commodities to feed the basic elements of that growth. Looking further ahead, how far we travel with the emerging nations depends on how smart we can be in growing with them, moving up the value chain.

Or we can eventually slip slide away with the North Atlantic nations by continuing to under-invest in education, avoid hard decisions and investments that take time to show a yield. The lack of political leadership and the excessively adversarial nature of what is there, the role of tabloid or politically-driven media in convincing middle class Australia that's its badly done by, the belief that the electorate can expect to always get more from government while paying less for it, all run counter to our potential.

But that's medium-term stuff. Right now, markets are prey to any rumour or fear that comes along. When the smoke clears though, that massive fundamental remains. It's the people, stupid.

Michael Pascoe is a BusinessDay contributing editor.

[Resurrection]

Originally Posted by Professor Farnsworth

i've changed the OP's thread title to something less 'end of the world/nuclear bunker' type deal. Keep the posts on track people as this thread is very borderline as it is.

Sugar coat is as much as you like. The potential is still present.

[mr smith]

Originally Posted by vztrt

http://www.theage.com.au/business/it...812-1ips7.html

That article is so flawed.
3.5 Billion on $20 per week (This is being optimistic, and the wages need to stay low to stay competitive) = $70 Billion
600 Million on $500 per week = $300 Billion.

$300 Billion beats $70 and this is per week.

To say the US and Europe no longer matter is rubbish.

[CJR09]

Originally Posted by mr smith

That article is so flawed.


To say the US and Europe no longer matter is rubbish.

some just cant get their head round it - how can it possibly not matter or make a difference - to what extent is the question - it will not be minimal

i'm in what i would call essential services sector and things are not looking flash short-medium term

I got my crystal ball out and had a look see...

markets will fluctuate +/- 5-10% over coming weeks before tanking in a month or two - gold will get to 2.5k and silver $80-$100

[Professor Farnsworth]

Originally Posted by Resurrection

Sugar coat is as much as you like. The potential is still present.

bravo, shows you haven't read one of my posts.

[z80]

I'll put my testosterone facility on the chopping block and say...


I predict the next RBA decision will be a 0.25% cut in the cash rate to 4.5% (and there will be an acknowledgement that things are slowing both worldwide and in our own back yard.)

That will also cause a 7c fall in the AUD versus USD....whithin a month to 0.95c


(be gentle with the flamethrower please...)

[GASWAGON]

Lets see how France and Greece goes in the next few weeks???

[XESP351]

Originally Posted by Resurrection

Sugar coat is as much as you like. The potential is still present.

Lol. You didn't watch Peter Harvey's Mail segment on 60 minutes tonight did you? I think he was talking about you and a few others on here.

[capriv8]

I agree with Peter Harvey and XESP351, I havnt commented on any of these threads before but the only negativity about our economy/shares and house prices I see are on this forum.
In the real world my family and friends are all prospering and continuing to live very full lives.
I see opportunities everywhere here in Australia and today is no different to yesterday, if you really look hard enough.

[Resurrection]

Originally Posted by capriv8

I agree with Peter Harvey and XESP351, I havnt commented on any of these threads before but the only negativity about our economy/shares and house prices I see are on this forum.
In the real world my family and friends are all prospering and continuing to live very full lives.
I see opportunities everywhere here in Australia and today is no different to yesterday, if you really look hard enough.

People with cancer or houses with white ants all look well on the surface whilst serious problems are occuring out of sight. This thread has nothing to do with negativity or spreading doom and gloom. Do some investigation and you'll realise the global finances are not well. How it will pan out is anybodies guess. However one should not have a blinkered look upon such things.

[trippytaka]

Originally Posted by Resurrection

People with cancer or houses with white ants all look well on the surface whilst serious problems are occuring out of sight. This thread has nothing to do with negativity or spreading doom and gloom. Do some investigation and you'll realise the global finances are not well. How it will pan out is anybodies guess. However one should not have a blinkered look upon such things.

Agreed. There is not enough investigation being done by investors into the situation. People get caught up in the mob rule, which is all too often based on misinformation. Whether it is short selling, based on rumours of default which spreads to panic and dumping of stock. or, on the other side of the coin people who believe that the world is rosey and Australia is insulated from all the cancer in the financial systems around the world.

Worse is the spruiking of the idea that if we all remain positve everything will be fine. Unfortunately this just isn't always the case.We NEED to question things. We NEED to do research.

Take this email newsletter I got from an Estate Agent this morning! Now, I am pretty sure it's illegal to offer this guarantee of capital gain year on year for the next three years... but who is going to pull them up on it?

Woul you buy into this email? Would you buy into this email if it came from a stock broker? Or a financial advisor?

Ask questions. Do reasearch. And then make an informed decision. Things are not always doom and gloom. Things aren't always rosey. And things won't always be fine if we all just put on blinkers and "think positive.

Cut through all the crap and ask for the truth.

The property investment market is going to go crazy from here because at present you are guaranteed 4 things;.
1. Literally no vacancy for your investment with vacancy rates sitting around 1%

2. A near guaranteed rent increase year on year for at least the next 3 years

3. Guaranteed a capital gain even if it’s small

4. Interest rates now look as though they are stabilising

[MAD]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business...-1226114811537

HOMEOWNERS have been warned not to bet their house on the Reserve Bank slashing interest rates, amid predictions of a property price crash by Christmas.

ANZ chief executive Philip Chronican said high inflation in Australia was likely to keep rates stable in the short term.

"We've got a domestic economy that's very strong and the Reserve Bank is worried about inflation," he said.

"There's very little reason for them to cut rates other than the crisis of confidence that we're starting to see in the rest of the world."

Housing market tipped to stay flat

The bank's cautious outlook comes as leading US economist Harry Dent said Australia's real estate market was the most overvalued in the Western world.

He said that Australia's property market could follow a similar path to Japan's crash in the late 1980s, when housing prices there declined by 60 per cent.

"That's what Australia could be looking at. I think prices will go back down to where they were in mid-2000, to where young families can start affording a house again - so that could prove a good thing."

The debt problems facing the US and Europe has led money markets to price in a cut of 1 percentage point in the official Australian cash rate by the end of the year.

Westpac last month forecast a 1 percentage point rate cut by the end of 2012.

A cut of that size would save struggling families $200 a month in average monthly repayments on a $300,000 loan.

But Commonwealth Bank chief executive Ralph Norris said last week that even if the Reserve Bank cuts rates, interest rates could jump as international borrowing costs climbed.

All four major banks slashed their fixed-rate mortgages over the past week. ANZ's three-year fixed rate plummeted to 6.44 per cent, ahead of CBA at 6.59 per cent, NAB at 6.69 per cent, and Westpac 6.79 per cent.

Mr Chronican said that less than 10 per cent of new loans had fixed interest rates, with most Australian borrowers opting to ride out the peaks and troughs of the variable rate.

Charities have blamed mortgage stress and cost of living pressures for a 12 per cent rise in demand for financial and emergency relief.

The Australian Council of Social Service community sector survey, released today, showed charities were called on for assistance 6.2 million times in 2009-10.

Fitch Ratings report released in May found a 30 per cent increase in arrears on mortgage payments during the three months to March this year.

More than 400 repossession notices were served on home owners by lenders in May and June, the highest number for almost two years.

Bad news in bold.
At the Melbourne average of 500k, that's a neat $200mil to be recovered.

[Scott]

Originally Posted by MAD

At the Melbourne average of 500k, that's a neat $200mil to be recovered.

Using your values...
Total number of homes in Australia ~8,500,000 x $500,000 = $4,250,000,000,000. Is $200,000,000 (or 0.0047%) really significant enough to panic over? Not in my book.

A bank telling me that rates could go up any time soon, whilst they are busy slashing rates, suggests shennanigans to me also. Which is it??

[MAD]

It may be not enough to panic over, but it's a dint in any banks profit in any case.

The worrying information is the increase of not only defaults but reposessions also.

[SB076]

Originally Posted by Elks

As for Vic, the 10+ years of the erosion of the manufacturing sector, this has accelerated in the last 5. Think about the closures and scale downs over the last few years, Pacific Dunlop, SPC, Teson Autoliv, BHP to the west, Various bits of QANTAS, Telstra, ACI, Ford, A year or 2 back I worked out that Vic had lost in excess of 15,000 tier 1 manufacturing jobs, so plus the knock on effect from there. Additionally major projects are few, and those that exist have nothing to replace them once completed.

All this has been offset a steady population increase creating growth. I fear that the lack of industry will create a long term unemployment problem that will in the end even remove us as a place of choice for immigration. And forget retail and services industries. They are legitimate businesses but something need to underpin them. Mining basically stopped here at the end of the gold rush over 100 years ago.

What I know is that I work in transport, and it's not uncommon now to have operator stuck interstate for a few days looking for their next load, something that was rare even 2 years ago.

All the indicators are softening, conversely there is still 22 million, people who need food and clothing and shelter and need t get it from that from somewhere. Who knows what will happen from here.

Agree - I get emails from auctioners selling off assets of places that are going into liquidation. Not just manufacturing (although the majoirty are) few transport companies, engineering type companies etc.

Unemployement in Vic rose a little last month (not a big jump however)

[BA GT-HO]

Wouldn't get too worried about 100 extra houses getting repossessed in 2 months. When that figure hits the tens of thousands then you start worrying.

Hysteria over nothing.

Even if my house crashed 70% in value I would stubbornly hold onto it if I could. Pretty sure most Aussies would do the same thing, we tend to be a stubborn lot at times.

[trippytaka]

Originally Posted by BA GT-HO

Wouldn't get too worried about 100 extra houses getting repossessed in 2 months. When that figure hits the tens of thousands then you start worrying.

Hysteria over nothing.

Even if my house crashed 70% in value I would stubbornly hold onto it if I could. Pretty sure most Aussies would do the same thing, we tend to be a stubborn lot at times.

Very true, I would say anyone who could hold onto it would.

Would the problem if that happened would be the amount of negative equity households woul dfind themselves in? If that happene, the economy would stop dead, surely.

[mr smith]

Originally Posted by trippytaka

Agreed. There is not enough investigation being done by investors into the situation. People get caught up in the mob rule, which is all too often based on misinformation. Whether it is short selling, based on rumours of default which spreads to panic and dumping of stock. or, on the other side of the coin people who believe that the world is rosey and Australia is insulated from all the cancer in the financial systems around the world.

Worse is the spruiking of the idea that if we all remain positve everything will be fine. Unfortunately this just isn't always the case.We NEED to question things. We NEED to do research.

Take this email newsletter I got from an Estate Agent this morning! Now, I am pretty sure it's illegal to offer this guarantee of capital gain year on year for the next three years... but who is going to pull them up on it?

Woul you buy into this email? Would you buy into this email if it came from a stock broker? Or a financial advisor?

Ask questions. Do reasearch. And then make an informed decision. Things are not always doom and gloom. Things aren't always rosey. And things won't always be fine if we all just put on blinkers and "think positive.

Cut through all the crap and ask for the truth.

Pretty sure its illegal for anyone except a RE agent, just another shonky situation with this industry.

[mr smith]

Originally Posted by BA GT-HO

Even if my house crashed 70% in value I would stubbornly hold onto it if I could. Pretty sure most Aussies would do the same thing, we tend to be a stubborn lot at times.

The problem here (and I hear this statement all the time) is a drop in values would see consumer spending stop dead. No more refinanced cars, holidays, boats and Investment properties (this will compound the fall). Over the last decade our economy has been built with one huge mind set taken for granted, HOUSE PRICES ALWAYS GO UP.

[CJR09]

grain of salt and all that...

http://english.aljazeera.net/busines...032249114.html

is australias debt only 7% gdp?!? also what "structural reforms" has australia undertaken? Resurrection?

[buggerlugs]

Originally Posted by Resurrection

Sugar coat is as much as you like. The potential is still present.

How is the underground bunker going....?? The sky is falling, the sky is falling

[Bent8]

"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident." - Arthur Schopenhauer, German philosopher (1788 – 1860)

[buggerlugs]

Originally Posted by Bent8

"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident." - Arthur Schopenhauer, German philosopher (1788 – 1860)

And I suppose you believed in the Y2K bug.............

[trippytaka]

Originally Posted by Bent8

"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident." - Arthur Schopenhauer, German philosopher (1788 – 1860)

Nice quote. I guess it's interesting to note:

GFC 2 / oz house prices falling sharply = Still at ridicule

Global warming = Now violently opposed

[TheSneakiness]

Well, because of the slump in the stock market the start of last week and the kneejerk reactions I mention earlier in this thread has now cost my wife her job.

Telstra were taking on alot of employees in their business sector but the slump happened and the candidates were then told that the positions were now under review and I knew that it was one of those idiotic reactions that would cost a handful of people an opportunity and a career.

Congratulations to the jump first and think later mentality. No longer will I ever be in your good books...

[Scott]

Originally Posted by Bent8

"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident." - Arthur Schopenhauer, German philosopher (1788 – 1860)

This really is a dumb quote, here's why:
"All myths pass through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident."

[gtfpv]

mate i really think this is BLOWN WAY OUT OF PROPORTION , and has a false "DOOM AND GLOOM" theme .
i can only state what i see . and i tell you what , 18 months ago i had my house valued , the realestate agents valued it the highest price i've ever had , over the 11 years here . the story was that the market will turn , and for top dollar , sell now . the top prices in the area then were high 700's , now there are many on the market for low 800's and top price 980 000.
I work in essential services trade , and i can tell you, there are max profits , and business has peaked since 2008 with no signs of dropping off .
my own life hasnt changed one bit . and all the doom and gloom is only on TV .