Twilight for the traditional ICE automobile

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

I hope battery technology improves significantly in the next 10 years or so.

There's some interesting dramas around batteries needing Cobalt - who the 'Democratic' Republic of Congo are the world's major supplier of Cobalt required in lithium ion batteries (much like Australia supplies most of the worlds lithium).

There was a lawsuit filed in the USA in 2019 targeting the major tech companies and Tesla over using slave/child labour from the DRC:



https://www.business-humanrights.org...ld-labour-drc/

LFP batteries used in the SR 3/Y models are already Cobalt free. They will move this into other models soon enough.

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

(much like Australia supplies most of the worlds lithium).
l

Good, I've got shares in a Lithium Mining Co...

Hope they can ride the EV boom..

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by hayseed

Good, I've got shares in a Lithium Mining Co...

Hope they can ride the EV boom..

I too have shares in some resource companies catering to this market, and also hydrogen

[jpd80]

There’s vested interest with keeping with current lithium based batteries - its gravy to them
and it provides the funding to develop the next generation of more efficient battery tech.
Eliminating cobalt is a saving for battery companies that probably won’t be passed to buyers…

The other thing here is that as batteries become cheaper, that helps hybrids stay around longer,
this is a funny development period where all forms of electrification are benefiting, so opportunity
for skeptics to put a toe in the water with hybrids/PHEVs as a final step before embracing BEVs.

The price of fuel is the final driver, many have forgotten how painful high prices are, so let that
sting be the a reminder to people of how much electrification cuts those costs.

[AMB]

Originally Posted by jpd80

.....

The price of fuel is the final driver, many have forgotten how painful high prices are, so let that
sting be the a reminder to people of how much electrification cuts those costs.

So if Australia magically changed 95% of all vehicles to electric overnight, how much extra power would we need on the grid? The equivalent in coal fired power stations seems to be an easily understood measure. Without a doubt we need to start building the infrastructure now, and quickly. The cost of building and maintaining that infrastructure will be built into the cost of supply, and it aint gonna be cheap.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by AMB

So if Australia magically changed 95% of all vehicles to electric overnight, how much extra power would we need on the grid? The equivalent in coal fired power stations seems to be an easily understood measure. Without a doubt we need to start building the infrastructure now, and quickly. The cost of building and maintaining that infrastructure will be built into the cost of supply, and it aint gonna be cheap.

Totally agree. The grid operators aren't not aware of this. I'm sure they're already building capacity and, as many have found, there is more money with renewables rather than our coal and gas systems (much to the dismay of our PM).

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

[five 7]

Hows this for NZ Government retardation, they have a major push to get us out of diesel utes, by chucking large freebate tax on knew ones, when there is no viable EV alternative in the near future. They have shut coal mines here and stopped any future gas and oil prospecting, so now import dirty brown coal from Indonesia, one million tons last year which is transported truck/train down to Huntly power station, which has its own coal in the area, the reason the plant was put there in the first place, suppose you would call that clean green and minimal carbon footprint.
The Government had a wake up on friday when farmers rolled tractors into every town in NZ protesting the green agenda supported by tradies in utes. Not sure how they are going to achieve zero carbon with out crippling the farmers and tradies who are the backbone of the country. Where all this extra power from the grid is coming from is mystery to me, we have trouble now. Our Govt seems to be all hat and no cattle.
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU18...s-on-in-nz.htm
https://www.times.co.nz/news/farmers...bours-ute-tax/

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by AMB

So if Australia magically changed 95% of all vehicles to electric overnight, how much extra power would we need on the grid? The equivalent in coal fired power stations seems to be an easily understood measure. Without a doubt we need to start building the infrastructure now, and quickly. The cost of building and maintaining that infrastructure will be built into the cost of supply, and it aint gonna be cheap.

Your question is moot as charging at night away from peak load is not the problem,
it’s actually good business for power companies to run at higher off peak loads
and earn more income with zero increase of generation equipment.

That way, power companies can justify increasing generation equipment, encouraging
more home solar systems and battery storage, turn households into mini generators.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by five 7

Hows this for NZ Government retardation, they have a major push to get us out of diesel utes, by chucking large freebate tax on knew ones, when there is no viable EV alternative in the near future. They have shut coal mines here and stopped any future gas and oil prospecting, so now import dirty brown coal from Indonesia, one million tons last year which is transported truck/train down to Huntly power station, which has its own coal in the area, the reason the plant was put there in the first place, suppose you would call that clean green and minimal carbon footprint.
The Government had a wake up on friday when farmers rolled tractors into every town in NZ protesting the green agenda supported by tradies in utes. Not sure how they are going to achieve zero carbon with out crippling the farmers and tradies who are the backbone of the country. Where all this extra power from the grid is coming from is mystery to me, we have trouble now. Our Govt seems to be all hat and no cattle.
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU18...s-on-in-nz.htm
https://www.times.co.nz/news/farmers...bours-ute-tax/

What a pack of flogs - why buy your brown coal from Indonesia when you could buy it from us here in Australia instead

The whole green movement is the new religious cult, you just need to look like you're doing the right thing, plastic keep cup to the cafe and make sure you get a paper straw.

Its never been about doing the right thing, its all about LOOKING like you care and you're doing the right thing - Saint Jacinda of the Woke is the posterchild of this post modern cult.

[smoo]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

The whole green movement is the new religious cult, you just need to look like you're doing the right thing, plastic keep cup to the cafe and make sure you get a paper straw.

Its never been about doing the right thing, its all about LOOKING like you care and you're doing the right thing - Saint Jacinda of the Woke is the posterchild of this post modern cult.

Not towing the Green agenda is the 21st century version of 1600s England/Europe blashpemy and witch hunts.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by smoo

Not towing the Green agenda is the 21st century version of 1600s England/Europe blashpemy and witch hunts.

image

Pre pandemic I copped **** from a local cafe in Greens territory Melbourne by its staff and owners for refusing to use a keepcup, and always insisting on paying more and them providing me with the traditional take away cup

If you have a problem with it, then don't offer disposable cups as an option?

I'm good at figuring out what upsets people

The whole woke movement, its tied in with the environmentalism cult it just ends up hurting the businesses who decide to walk that path:

https://www.broadsheet.com.au/melbou...x-closing-down

https://campaignbrief.com/get-woke-g...ion-writedown/

[AMB]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Your question is moot as charging at night away from peak load is not the problem,
it’s actually good business for power companies to run at higher off peak loads
and earn more income with zero increase of generation equipment.

That way, power companies can justify increasing generation equipment, encouraging
more home solar systems and battery storage, turn households into mini generators.

Moot? I dont know the actual figures, but I wouldn't be surprised if the extra power generation needed will be huge, maybe in the order of at least an extra 30-40% more power. Thats on top of what we are generating now. We are struggling to replace existing power with green energy, let alone increase it. My point is that its going to take decades to build it and it going to be expensive. Almost seems like you are saying that we have the capacity now.
Edit. Ok so did a little bit of reading to get some data, rather than going by the seat of my pants. I think my thinking is roughly in the ball park. For example, take a look at table 2.2 Australian energy consumption, by fuel type here:
https://www.energy.gov.au/sites/defa..._september.pdf

In 2012–13, the transport sector was Australia's second largest energy
consumer (behind the electricity sector), accounting for 26 per cent of all energy consumption (taken from https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...ivmsFgUsFY6qW3)

One interesting thing I read was that shipping and particularly international shipping uses a huge amount of energy.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by AMB

Moot? I dont know the actual figures, but I wouldn't be surprised if the extra power generation needed will be huge, maybe in the order of at least an extra 30-40% more power. Thats on top of what we are generating now. We are struggling to replace existing power with green energy, let alone increase it. My point is that its going to take decades to build it and it going to be expensive. Almost seems like you are saying that we have the capacity now.

The grid will grow but for now the charging load from those BEVs is currently minuscule
but even if it starts to spike, adding power back to the grid will probably come from
those non-traditional measures I mentioned previously until more generation is approved.

[whynot]

Originally Posted by AMB

Moot? I dont know the actual figures, but I wouldn't be surprised if the extra power generation needed will be huge, maybe in the order of at least an extra 30-40% more power.

There are a couple of technical papers available that you might be interested in.

This one from AEMO has some credence, if for no other reason they are the government designated market operator of the electricity and gas grids. (Market as in the buying and selling of electricity and gas.)

https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/el...ember-2017.pdf

Obviously, lots of assumptions in the figures. That said, the impact of EV seems quite manageable.

[AMB]

Originally Posted by jpd80

The grid will grow but for now the charging load from those BEVs is currently minuscule
but even if it starts to spike, adding power back to the grid will probably come from
those non-traditional measures I mentioned previously until more generation is approved.

Sorry I edited my above post after you replied.
I think what Im saying, is that we as a country use a massive amount of energy that is vastly underestimated by the general popluation. It is absolutely not possible to go green in the next 30-40 years. The logical solution to me seems to be go nuclear, the plants will up and running in about 30-40 years , it takes a long time to build these things. This will eliminate coal-fired, buying us time, and supplying the energy required to go green.

[AMB]

Originally Posted by whynot

There are a couple of technical papers available that you might be interested in.

This one from AEMO has some credence, if for no other reason they are the government designated market operator of the electricity and gas grids. (Market as in the buying and selling of electricity and gas.)

https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/el...ember-2017.pdf

Obviously, lots of assumptions in the figures. That said, the impact of EV seems quite manageable.

I just read the summary at the beginning. What it tells me is that by 2036 the AEMO middle scenario predicts that by 2036 about 12% of vehicles on the road will be EV and that will increase electricity consumption in 2036 by 3.8%. That tells me we need 38% more electricity to go 100% EV. Ball park figures of course.
Edit. In that article, why do you think they forecast EV uptake out to 2050, but only provide forecast electricity consumption out to 2036? To me there is only one reason, and I dont think it would allowed in a peer-reviewed paper.

[whynot]

Originally Posted by AMB

I just read the summary at the beginning. What it tells me is that by 2036 the AEMO middle scenario predicts that by 2036 about 12% of vehicles on the road will be EV and that will increase electricity consumption by 3.8%. That tells me we need 38% more electricity to go 100% EV. Ball park figures of course.
Edit. In that article, why do you think they forecast EV use out 2050, but only provide forecast electricity consumption out to 2036?

Don't get caught on the difference between energy consumption and system demand.

Total energy consumption (without EV) is forecast to be 185TWh in 2036. EV add around 5TWh.

The chart you are probably interested in is Figure 5 (bottom of page 4/52). The modelling suggests that EV will improve electricity grid utilisation, particularly in low load periods (like the middle of the day) with only a small impact on maximum demand.

Quite a few utilities are now offering off-peak charging for EV, with some reasonable rates as incentive. I believe the new Time Of Use tariff in SA has electricity at 25% of its normal rate in the middle of the day.

Where it gets really interesting is V2G (vehicle to grid), where the EV stops drawing electricity and pumps electricity back into the grid when the grid is under duress. For example, 100 EV fitted with a 100kWh battery could prop up a standard distribution HV feeder (e.g. around 1000 customers) over the evening summer peak for around two hours. Still a bit pie-in-the-sky stuff these days, but the new Nissan LEAF can do V2H

https://www.nissan.com.au/about-niss...australia.html

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by whynot

Where it gets really interesting is V2G (vehicle to grid), where the EV stops drawing electricity and pumps electricity back into the grid when the grid is under duress. For example, 100 EV fitted with a 100kWh battery could prop up a standard distribution HV feeder (e.g. around 1000 customers) over the evening summer peak for around two hours. Still a bit pie-in-the-sky stuff these days, but the new Nissan LEAF can do V2H

https://www.nissan.com.au/about-niss...australia.html

Seeing as they're thinking of charging homeowners (with solar panels) for putting power into the grid, car owners will probably get hit as well.

[kypez]

Slightly off topic but also on topic

The guy edited his response because he initially said without ICE cars, the trees would die.



Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

[AMB]

Originally Posted by whynot

Don't get caught on the difference between energy consumption and system demand.

Total energy consumption (without EV) is forecast to be 185TWh in 2036. EV add around 5TWh.

The chart you are probably interested in is Figure 5 (bottom of page 4/52). The modelling suggests that EV will improve electricity grid utilisation, particularly in low load periods (like the middle of the day) with only a small impact on maximum demand......

EV adds around 5TWh in 2036. In 2036 they predict that about 12% of vehicles will be EV. So 100% EV will need about 41.7 TWh. I do understand that some of this will come from the excess in supply when demand is lower (off-peak).

[AMB]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

Seeing as they're thinking of charging homeowners (with solar panels) for putting power into the grid, car owners will probably get hit as well.

And after a stinking hot night, hopefully you have enough power to go on that long journey in the morning. The smart meter thought you were only going to do the normal short drive to work. lol. The model just doesnt make sense to me.

[Romulus]

Originally Posted by lumen8

The fuel industry will always have the last laugh. 99c/gallon fuel prices will make it challenging for the EV market.

[AMB]

Originally Posted by kypez

Slightly off topic but also on topic

The guy edited his response because he initially said without ICE cars, the trees would die.

image

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

I think this is a important point that we forgot. "Trees" take CO2 out of the air, and the higher CO2 goes, the faster the trees grow. Problem is that starting around the 70s and continuing until now, there has been massive deforestation around the world, so the trees arent there anymore. It wouldnt have saved us, but at least it might have provided a small buffer until we get our sh!t together.

[whynot]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

Seeing as they're thinking of charging homeowners (with solar panels) for putting power into the grid, car owners will probably get hit as well.

Actually, the V2G is about grid support (when the grid needs it).

The trouble with solar PV is that maximum generation (around noon during spring) occurs when it is least wanted. The discussion around charging solar PV for exports is more about increasing self consumption (that is the solar PV is used inside the home, and people move their electricity consumption around to do so) and making it more attractive for home owners to install batteries.

With grid support, the intent is that for most of the time the car's battery is not used. However, when it is needed, the power company will send a signal to the car to reverse power into the grid.

Just some rubbery numbers. Typical domestic electricity tariff is around 20c/kWh ($200 MWh). The electricity pool price can spike as high as $14,000 MWh, which works back to $14/kWh. Assuming that your car battery has stored 100MWh and you are prepared to sell 50MWh back to the grid in an emergency, the the grid could pay you $700 for that emergency use. In practice, it will probably be a lot lower, but one gets the idea that emergency payment might be useful.

[AMB]

Originally Posted by Romulus

The fuel industry will always have the last laugh. 99c/gallon fuel prices will make it challenging for the EV market.

I agreed with much of what he was saying, but he let himself down when suggesting there is an abundant supply of fossil fuels, and perhaps the earth sweats fossil fuels. He thinks the main problem is we are running out of fossil fuels.

[AMB]

Originally Posted by whynot

....you are prepared to sell 50MWh back to the grid in an emergency.....

OK. That might work if you get to elect how much you are willing to supply when they need it. Hell, if prices spike that high, I think there will be a lot of people calling in sick and saying their battery is flat.

[AMB]

Although more likely it will be an agreement where they supply at x c/kWh, if you agree to make available x% of your capacity when they need it. So unless they give you the ability to turn off the supply function whenever you want, I can see people unplugging when fully charged, or not plugging in at all, because they don't want to discharge their battery for various reasons. The other easy option would be to just use a dumb charger, probably a popular option.

[whynot]

Originally Posted by AMB

Although more likely it will be an agreement where they supply at x c/kWh, if you agree to make available x% of your capacity when they need it. So unless they give you the ability to turn off the supply function whenever you want, I can see people unplugging when fully charged, or not plugging in at all, because they don't want to discharge their battery for various reasons. The other easy option would be to just use a dumb charger, probably a popular option.

There is a lot of consumer behaviour stuff mixed in with this. I tend to agree with your sentiments.

There is a lot of discussion about Virtual Power Plants, with some Australian based VPP already out there.

However, the down side for the customer is that each cycle of the battery eats into its life expectancy. Already, there has been some complaints of VPP "abusing" customer's batteries with way too many and unnecessary battery cycles. There is also the thorny question of control over charging time and cost. Under some VPP, the energy company can force your battery to full charge (and you pay the price) in anticipation of a discharge cycle later on in the day (hopefully you make a profit).

Personally, I would prefer to keep in control of my battery.

Regardless ... the current thinking is that EV (and their large battery) will be a significant benefit for the electricity grid, provided they are well managed and there are regulations in place to stop certain behaviours.

[Vesper Martini]

deleted comment

[xb74_black]

It is only a mater of time before a viable 'tradie ute' EV platform hits the market. In the states the F150 electric version has been a revelation to many.



At present the ICE rules, but the tipping point is close.

Originally Posted by five 7

Hows this for NZ Government retardation, they have a major push to get us out of diesel utes, by chucking large freebate tax on knew ones, when there is no viable EV alternative in the near future. They have shut coal mines here and stopped any future gas and oil prospecting, so now import dirty brown coal from Indonesia, one million tons last year which is transported truck/train down to Huntly power station, which has its own coal in the area, the reason the plant was put there in the first place, suppose you would call that clean green and minimal carbon footprint.
The Government had a wake up on friday when farmers rolled tractors into every town in NZ protesting the green agenda supported by tradies in utes. Not sure how they are going to achieve zero carbon with out crippling the farmers and tradies who are the backbone of the country. Where all this extra power from the grid is coming from is mystery to me, we have trouble now. Our Govt seems to be all hat and no cattle.
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU18...s-on-in-nz.htm
https://www.times.co.nz/news/farmers...bours-ute-tax/