Covid 19 -

[russellw]

131 new cases for Australia (mostly in Victoria) and 0 deaths so CMR drops to 1.193% and active cases rise to 1,293 (14.6%). The ACT recorded its first case (well 3 to be exact) in 30 days.

1 new case and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.431% and active cases rise to 23.

The UK recorded 630 new cases and 126 deaths yesterday so the CMR rises to 15.512%.

Just under 57k new cases in the USA yesterday and 993 deaths sees CMR down to 4.326% and active cases down to 51.9% but the raw numbers are rising. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global new cases pass 12M with the last 1M added in just 5 days;
Canada completes 3M, the UK 11M and the USA 39M tests;
Africa records a new daily high of 17,460 cases;
Asia records a new daily high of 55,331 cases;

Venezuela (419), Uzbekistan (422), Venezuela (661), Indonesia (1,853), Philippines (2,486), Iraq (2,741), Argentina (3,604) and India (25,571) recorded new daily highs, those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

[Mulva]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

Mate, you're a little late to the party. That's old news now. You need a new radio channel.

Fair call, I don't listen to radio, I heard it when changing USBs.

Originally Posted by zilo

Hope the Black Labradors Matter protests were worth it...

C'mon mate, all Labs matter!

[russellw]

Here's a quick graph to show the period of time it has taken for each 1 million cases to be added globally.



It's hard to extrapolate of course because it's hard to know when countries will start to get a handle on it but at the current rate we would get to 20M cases globally by the latter part of August. That's still only a quarter of one percent of the global population but it means there will be something like another half million deaths to add to the more than half a million we already have.

[Sprintey]

Saw the mayor of Mornington shire on the ABC this morning not too happy they are included in Melbourne metro area. Apparently they only have 1 case, have done well with it, and that highest proportion of over 65s are there. He observed that many cars were coming down to the Peninsula last night, could be people wanting to stay in their holiday houses. In the meantime, surfers/fishos could be daytripping from entire metro area down there for the next 6 weeks... he didn't seem too impressed.

[Whitey-AMG]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

Saw the mayor of Mornington shire on the ABC this morning not too happy they are included in Melbourne metro area..

Really ? I guess if it was state funding for a metro project in Mornington then he’d be playing a different tune .... More self serving and lack of accountability on display. I guess he’s not privy to the Sections 47AC and 47AD of the Estate Agents Act 1980 which lists Mornington Peninsula shire as part of the greater Metro Melbourne geographic. Not to mention countless other govt and council articles.

We just need to buckle up and do the right thing now and crop this thing back to a manageable number again. Everyone is doing it tough for the second time and if we get it wrong again then they’ll excavate Victoria from the mainland and jack it off into the Tasman .....

[russellw]

Some miscellaneous stats.

As of yesterday 80 of the 213 countries (39.9%) that have recorded at least one case, had worsening active case percentages.

30 of the 213 (14.1%) have not recorded a death despite having recorded cases.
Conversely, 11 of the 213 (5.2%) have a CMR above 10%.

115 countries (54%) have recorded less than 2 deaths per 100k of population while 36 countries (16.9%) have recorded more than 10 per 100k, including 28 that are over 15/100k.

29 countries (13.6%) have conducted more than 10,000 tests per 100k of population (including Australia), and 12 of those (5.6%) have more than 20,000 tests per 100k. At the other end of the scale there are 63 countries that have conducted less than 500 tests / 100k, including 32 (15%) that are below 100 / 100k.

37 countries (17.4%) have detected less than 10 cases per 100k of population while 90 countries (42.3%) have more than 100 / 100k and 27 (12.7%) have more than 500 / 100k.

Obviously testing volumes have a direct impact on CMR as it is generally fair to say that the higher the test volumes, the lower the CMR. That leads to an interesting point if we drill down on those countries that have done a lot of testing.

There are 8 countries with > 30% of the population tested but with the exception of Bahrain and the UAE they all also have really small populations. Three of them have a CMR of 0; three are below 1% CMR including the two with larger population bases and the remaining two have a CMR of 2.4% (Luxembourg) and 3.7% (Monaco). By comparison, the global average is 4.54%.

A further 4 countries have tested between 20-30% of their population, only one of which (Bermuda) has a really small population base but it also has the worst CMR of the four at 6.0% although Denmark at 4.7% is also high with the others below 2%.

That leaves 15 countries that have tested between 10-20% of their population although most of those are below 15%. Here we (ironically) have 2 of the highest CMRs - the United Kingdom (15.5%) and Belgium (15.7%) with eight others below 2%; a further 3 below the global average and the Channel Islands (8.1%) and Spain (9.5%) falling in-between.

I've graphed the data below even though it's somewhat ambiguous. Note that it's been amended to tests per 100M so the scale is readable.



24 of the 213 (11.3%) are currently clear of active cases.

[xxx000]

Heard an interesting discussion on ABC radio yesterday. The expert being interviewed stated that he believes we're actually only in the early stages of the virus not the latter as many think.
I'd be intrigued to know the total $ cost of the virus worldwide compared to that of 911 and the subsequent changes.

[hackney]

Originally Posted by xxx000

Heard an interesting discussion on ABC radio yesterday. The expert being interviewed stated that he believes we're actually only in the early stages of the virus not the latter as many think.
I'd be intrigued to know the total $ cost of the virus worldwide compared to that of 911 and the subsequent changes.

It is not over by a long shot! This will go on for many months yet(possibly years) stay safe everyone!

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by hackney

It is not over by a long shot! This will go on for many months yet(possibly years) stay safe everyone!

But there will be an end to it. The Chinese are already doing mass vaccinations and a number of other vaccines are well into the trial stage. It will take a while to get billions of people vaccinated but the WHO has done this before and they can do it again. There will be an end to it.

The war in Afghanistan, terrorist attacks, airport security and state surveillance; no, sorry but I can't see an end to that anywhere in my lifetime.

[hackney]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

But there will be an end to it. The Chinese are already doing mass vaccinations and a number of other vaccines are well into the trial stage. It will take a while to get billions of people vaccinated but the WHO has done this before and they can do it again. There will be an end to it.

The war in Afghanistan, terrorist attacks, airport security and state surveillance; no, sorry but I can't see an end to that anywhere in my lifetime.

Not for a very long time.These things do NOT happen overnight.China has under reported its death rate by massive amounts.They could lose the population of Australia(25 mil) and it would only be a blip on their radar.Get yourself ready for a long road ahead.We will have cases cropping up all the time.Unfortunately people just do not do as they are told,there in lies a big issue.Stay safe & well!

[Whitey-AMG]

Originally Posted by hackney

Not for a very long time.These things do NOT happen overnight.China has under reported its death rate by massive amounts.They could lose the population of Australia(25 mil) and it would only be a blip on their radar.Get yourself ready for a long road ahead.We will have cases cropping up all the time.Unfortunately people just do not do as they are told,there in lies a big issue.Stay safe & well!

It will mutate like the Flu virus does. We’ll need a modified vaccine every year.
Those who think we’re out of the woods cant see the wood for the trees as they say... International holiday travel will take the biggest hit, it is and will remain the biggest risk not to mention the challenges with travel insurance if you do manage to fly.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by Whitey-AMG

It will mutate like the Flu virus does. We’ll need a modified vaccine every year.

Depends which part of the virus is mutating, and which part the vaccine is targeting.

[russellw]

173 new cases for Australia and 0 deaths so CMR drops to 1.170% and active cases rise to 1,380 (15.2%). The ACT recorded another new case; WA had 3 and NSW recorded 13 with the balance in Victoria.

3 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.429% and active cases rise to 24.

The UK recorded 642 new cases and 85 deaths yesterday so the CMR drops to 15.507%.

Just under 57k new cases in the USA yesterday and 993 deaths sees CMR down to 4.326% and active cases down to 51.9% but the raw numbers are rising. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global cases set a new daily record of 207,796;
The USA drops below 25% of deaths but remains above 25% of cases;
Iran passes 250k cases;
South America passes 100k deaths;
Germany completes 6M,Russia 22Mand the USA 40M tests;
Africa records a new daily high of 18,347 cases;Asia records a new daily high of 55,505 cases;

Lebanon (65), Libya (86), Venezuela (419), Kenya (447), Uzbekistan (472), Venezuela (661), Bolivia (1,439), Kazakhstan (1,962), Indonesia (2,657), Argentina (3,663), Colombia (5,335), Mexico (6,995), South Africa (13,674), India (25,803) and the USA (61,848) recorded new daily highs, those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

[T3rminator]

Excellent appointments in my view. Surely this puts to bed the "lack of independence" concerns? Ex PM of a 5 eyes nation.

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail...onse-announced

I wonder what would happen if the review backs up initial WHO's view on China's response. Also interesting that at around the same time of this announcement, the US have formally notified the WHO to withdraw permanently. Hmmmmmmm

Imagine how much better off we would ALL be if everyone had pulled together to respond.

[hackney]

Originally Posted by Whitey-AMG

It will mutate like the Flu virus does. We’ll need a modified vaccine every year.
Those who think we’re out of the woods cant see the wood for the trees as they say... International holiday travel will take the biggest hit, it is and will remain the biggest risk not to mention the challenges with travel insurance if you do manage to fly.

Yup,pretty much.What is the rush to go on a international flight? Spend your money here for heavens sake.Stay @ home! How clear can it be?Unfortunately,some people just do not get it,& will try & get around the rules anyway they can.In many ways it is all about them.Really sad.Vaccine could be a year away OR two.(hope not).

[Fed]

I just got back from hunting & gathering at my local supermarket, out of the hundred people I saw there was only one wearing a mask... Me.

Pretty disappointing really, it's not just about catching covid it's also about setting an example.

[Whitey-AMG]

Originally Posted by b0son

Depends which part of the virus is mutating, and which part the vaccine is targeting.

Corona Virus, like the Influenza and measles virus is an RNA virus. It can and will mutate slowly which may make it worse or it may mutate into something weaker.
DNA virus strains are less likely to mutate and are easier to treat , manage and contain / eradicate with a single strain vaccine. ( HPV , herpes etc... )

Any vaccine we develop for COVID will always need to be modified. In the background we still have SARS and MERS coronavirus active so going forward we may need some sort of Corona trivalent vaccine ??

Any way you look at it, we’ll need to have constant vigilance now and onwards.
Genie is out of the bottle now.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Fed

I just got back from hunting & gathering at my local supermarket, out of the hundred people I saw there was only one wearing a mask... Me.

Pretty disappointing really, it's not just about catching covid it's also about setting an example.

I've still got customers coming into the office face to face no one is too fussed and we're based in one of those 11 lockdown suburbs.

Haven't seen any police in the area at all on my 120km daily commute either.

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Haven't seen any police in the area at all on my 120km daily commute either.

I've seen the way you drive. If they were there, you'd find them

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Looks like NSW Air Pol are conducting a border control run along the remote eastern NSW/Vic border area

https://www.flightradar24.com/POL27/24e51dd1

[russellw]

Originally Posted by Fed

I just got back from hunting & gathering at my local supermarket, out of the hundred people I saw there was only one wearing a mask... Me.

Pretty disappointing really, it's not just about catching covid it's also about setting an example.

Same here. I did both Woolies and Aldi the day before yesterday and not only were they both packed (I actually had to drive around to find a park for the first time ever) but I spotted only one other person wearing a mask, staff included.

At least the entire pharmacy staff were masked up as, surprisingly, was the local noodle joint staff.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

I've seen the way you drive. If they were there, you'd find them

It probably comes to no surprise why I average less than 20,000km out of a set of tyres

[T3rminator]

News just out....a US marine in NT has tested positive.......... Who didn't see that coming? I hope our most vulnerable are adequately protected.


Lets see what coverage this gets.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

News just out....a US marine in NT has tested positive.......... Who didn't see that coming? I hope our most vulnerable are adequately protected.


Lets see what coverage this gets.

It is possible that the marine is stationed in the NT and has not been home to the US for quite some time, hence, did not bring it into the country with them.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

It is possible that the marine is stationed in the NT and has not been home to the US for quite some time, hence, did not bring it into the country with them.

ABC is reporting that he is a 21 year old and arrived recently as part of the annual rotation training drills. They said the new comers were tested prior to leaving, obviously results were negative, so they are not sure how he caught it after arriving. MMmmmmmm They need to ring fence the marines to protect the indigenous community. It has been reported that the marines have had "little to no" outside contact, whatever that means. It only takes a "little" to spread.

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by Fed

I just got back from hunting & gathering at my local supermarket, out of the hundred people I saw there was only one wearing a mask... Me.

Pretty disappointing really, it's not just about catching covid it's also about setting an example.

[b0son]

Virus = droplet. Fart = gas (if you're farting droplets, probably best to stay at home on the can). More than a little size difference...

[Mulva]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

Looks like NSW Air Pol are conducting a border control run along the remote eastern NSW/Vic border area

https://www.flightradar24.com/POL27/24e51dd1

I wonder if there are any patrols at sea...seems it would be easy to head off for a "fishing trip" from South West Victoria and be dropped off on other side of the SA border to meet a friend with land transport in South East of SA.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Mulva

I wonder if there are any patrols at sea...seems it would be easy to head off for a "fishing trip" from South West Victoria and be dropped off on other side of the SA border to meet a friend with land transport in South East of SA.

Thanks for the tip

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by Mulva

I wonder if there are any patrols at sea...seems it would be easy to head off for a "fishing trip" from South West Victoria and be dropped off on other side of the SA border to meet a friend with land transport in South East of SA.

Have you checked a map? It'd either be a long fishing trip or a long walk to a road on the SA side