Australia housing bubble

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by XB GS 351 Coupe

I think you missed the point, do the hours when you are young so you can enjoy life with the family, guess what my day was today, get up at 9:00am, breakfast, gym, an hours horse riding with my daughter then went fishing with both kids for three hours this arvo, and I am only in my 40's working an average of three days a week just to cover running expenses

Tomorrow will be similar, next week going camping, fishing and hunting while everyone else is at work.

So doing 70-80hr weeks has well and truly paid off.

How old are your kids roughly and 40 what, 1,9?

Oh, my last few days went like this, got up at 6am Wednesday, drove for 660k's to hay, had a 6pack of Jimmy's, looked around a while, spent the night in a tidy little lotel, got up yesterday, drove 400k's to Yass, had a look around, got up this morning, drove the rest of the way to Sydney, and spent the afternoon watching my Daughter compete for SA against the rest of the nations elite juniors, will do the same tomorrow and the day after, and the day after that amd then on Tuesday i'll begin the 3 day slow cruise home to Adelaide.
Then i'll load up the camper trailer and boat and head up the river for a week.

I'm 41 and don't even have a job at the moment, nor do I receive 1 red cent from Centrelink, we do it all on 1 wage, the Wife is happy as a pig in **** because the housework is done in her absence and the dinner is cooking when she gets home mid arvo.

[XB GS 351 Coupe]

Originally Posted by GasOLane

How many hours a day... or how many hours over the three days ?

Depends on how much work is required and what is happening...

[XB GS 351 Coupe]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

How old are your kids roughly and 40 what, 1,9?

Kids are 12 and 14, late 40's at this stage, but cut down on the long hours when they were still young, roughly 10 years ago, so in my late 30's.

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by XB GS 351 Coupe

Depends on how much work is required and what is happening...

Is that full or part time. I know a few people that work full time 12 hrs a day 3 days a week.

It's a good life.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by XB GS 351 Coupe

Kids are 12 and 14, late 40's at this stage, but cut down on the long hours when they were still young, roughly 10 years ago, so in my late 30's.

Right, so you held out on having kids until later in life, mid 30's and when they are in their mid 20's and ready to enjoy living, you'll be nudging 60 and ready to slow down.
My eldest is 19 and I'm 41, if he has kids at 22 like I did, i'll be enjoying my grandchildren at the same age as you are now.
How old will you be when your grandkids want to play footy or cricket in the back yard...60?
Hey, look on the bright side, you'll be able to pay me or some other spring chicken to have a kick with them whilst you tend your Geraniums...lol

The sunset over Botany Bay was awesome this evening, not as nice as Sydney Harbour from the deck of the Pacific Jewel last November, or from the Carnival Legend in February but cant be too picky.

Horses for courses pal, horses for courses.

[mr smith]

Better to have no kids.

[.:4:.]

Originally Posted by mr smith

Better to have no kids.

You're probably right. I'm in the same boat as bent_8. Had my kid at 22, bought a house in Sydney at 25. I had to and still have to do the work to maintain the income, but should be able to kick back to a degree in my 40s. I'm 30 now.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by mr smith

Better to have no kids.

Maybe, but at the same time, no kids now, no first home buyers in 25yrs...

That's not how a Ponzi succeeds.

[zipping]

https://twitter.com/NinjaEconomics/s...30612115124224

[Syndrome]

What is happening in 2018?

[mr smith]

Bubble deflating..…banking royal commission will claim some scalps. I alread know of one person forced to sell in Melb as the banks called in the interest only loans.

[GO FURTHER]

Originally Posted by Syndrome

What is happening in 2018?

Nothing will happen in 2018, prices on housing will stabilize a little but nothing dramatic.

The property market operates in cycles lasting on average 18 years.

The cycle is divided into 3 phases;

• Years 1 to 7 is the recovery phase
  
• Years 7 to 14 is the explosive growth phase
  
• Years 14 to 18 are the recession phase.

The GFC started in 2007... So in 2018, we are in year 11, and still on the upward cycle.

Interest rates will start to rise in 2019 - 2020, and cool the level of growth a little.

House prices will again start to fall in 2021 or another 3 years and will continue to fall for 4 years, till the 18 year cycle starts all over again.

[Syndrome]

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

Nothing will happen in 2018, prices on housing will stabilize a little but nothing dramatic.

The property market operates in cycles lasting on average 18 years.

The cycle is divided into 3 phases;

• Years 1 to 7 is the recovery phase
• Years 7 to 14 is the explosive growth phase
• Years 14 to 18 are the recession phase.

The GFC started in 2007... So in 2018, we are in year 11, and still on the upward cycle.

Interest rates will start to rise in 2019 - 2020, and cool the level of growth a little.

House prices will again start to fall in 2021 or another 3 years and will continue to fall for 4 years, till the 18 year cycle starts all over again.

Mate, don't hold your breath as those interest will NOT be rising any time soon.

[asagaai]

Originally Posted by mr smith

Bubble deflating..…banking royal commission will claim some scalps. I alread know of one person forced to sell in Melb as the banks called in the interest only loans.

Hmm- my brother is in Melbourne. We climbed together as a team when younger. Told me he planned to retire by 40 and then go climbing around the world.

I was never that together and just struggled holding down my job and keeping sanity and head above water.

Years ago in late 20's my brother commenced investment property investing- interest only, leveraged to eyeballs. Leveraged against his family home. Invested in some good properties in Melbourne and wider afield.

Banks called in the mortgages this year- sold the good Melbourne Coburg investment property to pay off the other mortgages which were in the red.

He is 50, managed to keep the family home in Melbourne but is now saddled with a sizeable mortgage-so much for his plans to be retired by 40.


Wonder how many other stories there are like this happening/about to happen....

[FTE217]

There are and will be countless stories as such asagaai but as you know these are people who go out on the limb far too much, they also think they are very smart, greed comes to mind as well.
Its not the fault of the banks, nor the RB regards to interest rates, its about not going over your head and how many are - living off credit, living beyond their means.
I'm sorry for your bro but then again not, more so I hope his family doesn't have to suffer due to being a big shot ( I mean no offense please understand but its a general overall POV on these type of circumstances)

[asagaai]

Originally Posted by FTE217

There are and will be countless stories as such asagaai but as you know these are people who go out on the limb far too much, they also think they are very smart, greed comes to mind as well.
Its not the fault of the banks, nor the RB regards to interest rates, its about not going over your head and how many are - living off credit, living beyond their means.
I'm sorry for your bro but then again not, more so I hope his family doesn't have to suffer due to being a big shot ( I mean no offense please understand but its a general overall POV on these type of circumstances)

No offense taken-I agree with you. Three things I have learned so far on this earth:

1. Avoid following the innate human frailty of being a sheep. Apply your life experience and use your brain to assess and determine your own course based on what you value in life.

2. Generally people who are self made with no silver spoon and are successful in business/work generally got there by hard work and skills. Not everyone has both the hard work ethic AND the skills in required proportions.

3. That I am unsure- as to what is more stressful in life- financial stresses, or the horror stresses of daughters in that puberty to age 20ish odd....

[Professor Farnsworth]

Rule #1, borrow what you can afford, on one income, factored on a high theoretical interest rate, then make extra repayments. Never borrow high amounts just because the bank says you can. Just because you can, doesn't mean you should. Words to live by.

[mr smith]

Originally Posted by asagaai

Hmm- my brother is in Melbourne. We climbed together as a team when younger. Told me he planned to retire by 40 and then go climbing around the world.

I was never that together and just struggled holding down my job and keeping sanity and head above water.

Years ago in late 20's my brother commenced investment property investing- interest only, leveraged to eyeballs. Leveraged against his family home. Invested in some good properties in Melbourne and wider afield.

Banks called in the mortgages this year- sold the good Melbourne Coburg investment property to pay off the other mortgages which were in the red.

He is 50, managed to keep the family home in Melbourne but is now saddled with a sizeable mortgage-so much for his plans to be retired by 40.


Wonder how many other stories there are like this happening/about to happen....

I think more than people are letting on, I have had a few honest discussions with friends who have invested in property and the current returns are just not there. Many are looking to cash in and are getting nervous. Interst only has been a massive mistake, like the old europeans told me when I started work, make sure you own your home and dont play around with it.

[GASWAGON]

RBA will raise rates in Decemeber because economy is going so well due to all the new infrastructure we ALL 'desperately' need.

Interest rates could'nt stay 0.25 forever????

[.:4:.]

Originally Posted by Professor Farnsworth

Rule #1, borrow what you can afford, on one income, factored on a high theoretical interest rate, then make extra repayments. Never borrow high amounts just because the bank says you can. Just because you can, doesn't mean you should. Words to live by.

Those are wise words. I split with the wife and after I pay the mortgage and bills each week I still have a bit left over. Always gear it incase there is a rainy day I guess. Looking back when I bought it was at the limit for a dual lowish income however over a few years the borrowed amount did not change but my income did so it works out I pay much less for a mortgage then to rent even a 2 bedroom unit in my area these days. And I bought in 2012.

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/mon...27-p4zhtx.html


nice. young people have no chance of entering the property market and now they're criticised for staying at home longer than previous generations.

[asagaai]

Originally Posted by mr smith

Interst only has been a massive mistake, like the old europeans told me when I started work, make sure you own your home and dont play around with it.

I have done work for a number of those old Europeans who came to Australia with nothing, from countries with limited employment and desperate living conditions.

They came here young-ie 17-21 -often by themselves-and worked their ****s off- in menial jobs and doing what they could to get better paid jobs-because all they had known was insecurity- and they wanted security above all else- and their first aim was to buy out a home outright.

A lot of youth and man-woman childs in Australia are leading very sheltered privileged cushioned lives living at home and those not wise and perceptive do not realise how hard life will be for them in the future and just laze about. The wise ones realise life will be very hard and push themselves hard to set themselves up.

I state this based on my household- I have 1 child in both camp.

[Charliewool]

Originally Posted by leesa

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/mon...27-p4zhtx.html


nice. young people have no chance of entering the property market and now they're criticised for staying at home longer than previous generations.

Geesh you is a negative nellie at times leesa.....
Though I agree it is tougher than years ago to buy a house/mortgage... It IS still possible, once they set their sights a little, realistically lower!
This “young people have no chance” , “woe is me” crap really annoys me...
They DO and they CAN with a bit of “get off ya a rse” and smarts!
I have 2 in their late 20s that have.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by BFBarraWGN

RBA will raise rates in Decemeber because economy is going so well due to all the new infrastructure we ALL 'desperately' need.

Interest rates could'nt stay 0.25 forever????

Incorrect. The economy is not meeting the governments targets, and it's highly unlikely the interest rates will be moving any time soon.

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by leesa

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/mon...27-p4zhtx.html


nice. young people have no chance of entering the property market and now they're criticised for staying at home longer than previous generations.

What a load of bollocks.
I see the journo has a hyphenated surname, say no more.

Wonder what they would have said that my brother stayed home till 30yrs and countless others back in the days, who wrote about that back then ? no one for there are countless reasons why not just because of affording a property.
In saying that, leesa, young people not having a chance.
Another generalised comment.
There will always be those who get themselves in a position who can and those who cannot.
If everyone was the same we'd be in a sorry place I suppose thankfully not.
As Charliewool quotes, his own boys have.
Late last year my late 20's niece and new hubby just bought a run down semi in inner Sydney - from saving their ****'s off for a number of years - funny just as myself and wife not a the time did as well way back then when it was meant to be affordable.
I say that for when we were saving I thought FFS this will take forever....but alas in time it didn't AND I thought signing for that 1st mortgage dump was like signing away for a million bucks back then.
My eldest son @ 25 is nearing his target with his girlfriend/wife sooner or later to putting down a deposit but I suppose they had no chance as well.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by FTE217

As Charliewool quotes, his own boys have.
Late last year my late 20's niece and new hubby just bought a run down semi in inner Sydney - from saving their ****'s off for a number of years.
My eldest son @ 25 is nearing his target with his girlfriend/wife sooner or later to putting down a deposit but I suppose they had no chance as well.

Where are they living whilst saving their ****s off until late 20's?

Any of these have kids of their own mate?


So would i be right in assuming the key is to spend the first 20 years in nappy's or school, the next 10 years saving every dollar for a run down house, the next 30 years paying off that overpriced rundown house and then what, life begins at 60 if (insert incurable medical condition) doesnt get you first?
Happy days!

[b0son]

Originally Posted by FTE217

There will always be those who get themselves in a position who can and those who cannot.

Of course, what matters though is the proportion who cannot. And that proportion is most definitely rising.

And that isn't simply because they waste money. Houses as a proportion of income cost 3-5x MORE than 20 years ago, so all things being equal, it would take 3-5x LONGER to raise that deposit. All the while, prices keep rising (often faster than the rate at which people can save).

I'm happy for people to pint out how much money people waste... I agree, there shouldn't be anywhere near the market for silly services like professional dog washing/grooming, or lawnmowing, etc. People outsource an awful lot of stuff they could well do for themselves. But even for those that do everything right, they're still so far behind the curve now, its truly depressing as a parent, and my daughter is nowhere near moving out age yet. I can only imagine how bad it will get in another 10 years....

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Where are they living whilst saving their ****s off until late 20's?

Any of these have kids of their own mate?


So would i be right in assuming the key is to spend the first 20 years in nappy's or school, the next 10 years saving every dollar for a run down house, the next 30 years paying off that overpriced rundown house and then what, life begins at 60 if (insert incurable medical condition) doesnt get you first?
Happy days!

The niece and boyfriend now hubby have been together for 8yrs, their choice I guess before marriage, were living at home prior, then were out renting for a few years both times saving - they still had their entertainment times but thats all varying how some take entertaining/going out.
Whats wrong with a run down house ? I started the same feeling broke and forever paying off, did as much reno myself in 5yrs sold it just under double but spent minimal, made some extra, back into mortgage and bought suburb better but ordinary house again.
What do you expect.

The rest of your bottom paragraph is life mate.
Just some get less debt sooner than others - some even from back in the day probably never paid off their house and have just the pension to live on, some obviously own their properties and are self funded retirees, takes all types.
Some die younger with nothing due to incurable decease as mentioned, some don't and have it all but pay through the nose.
As I said, thats life make of it what you will, up to you, before and today.

[GO FURTHER]

Originally Posted by b0son

Of course, what matters though is the proportion who cannot. And that proportion is most definitely rising.

And that isn't simply because they waste money. Houses as a proportion of income cost 3-5x MORE than 20 years ago, so all things being equal, it would take 3-5x LONGER to raise that deposit. All the while, prices keep rising (often faster than the rate at which people can save).

I'm happy for people to pint out how much money people waste... I agree, there shouldn't be anywhere near the market for silly services like professional dog washing/grooming, or lawnmowing, etc. People outsource an awful lot of stuff they could well do for themselves. But even for those that do everything right, they're still so far behind the curve now, its truly depressing as a parent, and my daughter is nowhere near moving out age yet. I can only imagine how bad it will get in another 10 years....

What needs to happen, is for the Government to release and develop crown land for residential use.
Available to first home buyers only and means tested.

But instead of buying the land, offer the housing blocks on a "99-year lease", plus an annual levy to go towards the cost of developing the land, (roads, services, sewerage, etc).

So the Government always owns the land (like in China) and is not selling off Australia.

Then the first home buyers only have to pay for the cost of building the home, which can be done for $200K.
After 99 years, their kids or grandchildren who inherit the property can arrange a new lease on the land.

This would more than half the cost of affordable housing for young people.

Sure, a lot of this crown land might not be close to the major cities and be in rural areas... But its a start for those currently priced out of the home market.

.... Anyone want to vote for the "Go Further party".

[zipping]

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

What needs to happen, is for the Government to release and develop crown land for residential use.
Available to first home buyers only and means tested.

But instead of buying the land, offer the housing blocks on a "99-year lease", plus an annual levy to go towards the cost of developing the land, (roads, services, sewerage, etc).

So the Government always owns the land (like in China) and is not selling off Australia.

Then the first home buyers only have to pay for the cost of building the home, which can be done for $200K.
After 99 years, their kids or grandchildren who inherit the property can arrange a new lease on the land.

This would more than half the cost of affordable housing for young people.

Sure, a lot of this crown land might not be close to the major cities and be in rural areas... But its a start for those currently priced out of the home market.

.... Anyone want to vote for the "Go Further party".

No.

That's a terrible idea, the government getting in the real estate market with leases. Releasing land is good.

If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in five years there’d be a shortage of sand. - Friedman

Most land around cities is in private hands so its not doable anyway.

Let's not kid ourselves into thinking that more government interference in the market is the solution.

The cost of buying a standard housing lot in Melbourne's greenfield suburbs increased by a whopping 36 per cent in 2017 – AFR can't link to paywall

The average Melbourne lot price of $329,500 is rapidly catching up with the $480,000 cost of a new lot in Sydney. This is in contrast to the costs of new housing blocks in those US cities which have a permissive approach to new development on their outskirts. Thus, in Australian dollars, fully developed lots in Houston and Atlanta sell for $70,000 – $100,000 and average house prices in those two cities are $300,000 and $350,000 respectively.

The difference in prices between Australian cities and those of Houston and Atlanta is solely due to government planning policy. Although high levels of immigration are sometimes blamed for house price escalation in Australia – and demand is certainly important – the fact is that both Houston and Atlanta are cities that are growing faster than Sydney and Melbourne.

Australia has not only heaps of land but other natural resources that we are putting so many regulations around that we are restricting our citizens from being industrious and give us some of the higher incomes in the industrial world.