Covid 19 -

[xxx000]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

I keep hearing/reading about people dying and the argument is whether they died of Covid, or some other pre existing condition. See post #4148 for example.

So I put forward a scenario of a 55 year old male with a pre existing condition, who contracted Covid. Then died.

What was the reason for his death? Curious as to peoples thoughts.

Man with terminal cancer gets hit by a car and dies.
Cause of death is obviously being hit by the car

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

I keep hearing/reading about people dying and the argument is whether they died of Covid, or some other pre existing condition. See post #4148 for example.

So I put forward a scenario of a 55 year old male with a pre existing condition, who contracted Covid. Then died.

What was the reason for his death? Curious as to peoples thoughts.

What you want to be looking at is excess deaths... the additional number of deaths over a given period compared to previous periods.

If comorbidities were so significant, there should be very few excess deaths compared to previous years. Those people would be dying anyway. ©b0son

[cheap]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

What you want to be looking at is excess deaths... the additional number of deaths over a given period compared to previous periods.

If comorbidities were so significant, there should be very few excess deaths compared to previous years. Those people would be dying anyway. ©b0son

https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%...3?opendocument

On 14 July 2020 at 06:35:29 PM (Canberra time), the resident population of Australia is projected to be:
25,629,734

This projection is based on the estimated resident population at 31 December 2019 and assumes growth since then of:
one birth every 1 minute and 44 seconds,
one death every 3 minutes and 15 seconds

On this basis Aussies dying from C19 is background noise.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

I keep hearing/reading about people dying and the argument is whether they died of Covid, or some other pre existing condition. See post #4148 for example.

So I put forward a scenario of a 55 year old male with a pre existing condition, who contracted Covid. Then died.

What was the reason for his death? Curious as to peoples thoughts.

Different regions are reporting this differently.

I have a friend who works in the NHS in the UK. As a general rule of thumb, they will presume and count it as CV19, if the patient had CV19, regardless of whether they had pre-existing condition. During the height of the pandemic, in some cases, health workers were so scared to enter aged care homes, they will just count it as CV19, and get external parties to remove the bodies. This is just what my NHS mate is telling me, I have no hard evidence to back this up. I believe this method of counting is the same in the US where hospitals get reimbursed from the government for CV19 cases, but not for other causes.

In Asia I'm hearing that they will only count CV19 if they believe it is the main contributing factor. How they determine that I don't know. This is just from what relatives living in those regions are telling me, I haven't found any data to back this up.

Not sure how it is done here.

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by cheap

https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%...3?opendocument

On 14 July 2020 at 06:35:29 PM (Canberra time), the resident population of Australia is projected to be:
25,629,734

This projection is based on the estimated resident population at 31 December 2019 and assumes growth since then of:
one birth every 1 minute and 44 seconds,
one death every 3 minutes and 15 seconds

On this basis Aussies dying from C19 is background noise.

And your point is.....

[b0son]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

What was the reason for his death? Curious as to peoples thoughts.

What was the primary cause for him dying before his time?

[Tickford.]

Originally Posted by b0son

What was the primary cause for him dying before his time?

Yep.


So many out there will be saying he died because of his pre existing liver/immune condition. Not because of Covid.

Again, see post number 4148 as an example. The poster said something on the lines of 'his medical condition was unknown, could have been overweight, a heavy smoker, takeaway fiend, cardiac condition'.

He went to a Covid party, contracted the virus, and died.

But did he not die because of Covid??

[cheap]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

And your point is.....

My point is, measuring the ‘excess C19 deaths’.

Since ~1st March with Australia’s first recorded c19 death, there’s been 108 C19 Aussie deaths.

And based on a average 450/deaths/day well over 60,000 Aussies have died during the same period.

Ask a statistician about measuring the excess.

[blueoval]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Different regions are reporting this differently.

I have a friend who works in the NHS in the UK. As a general rule of thumb, they will presume and count it as CV19, if the patient had CV19, regardless of whether they had pre-existing condition. During the height of the pandemic, in some cases, health workers were so scared to enter aged care homes, they will just count it as CV19, and get external parties to remove the bodies. This is just what my NHS mate is telling me, I have no hard evidence to back this up. I believe this method of counting is the same in the US where hospitals get reimbursed from the government for CV19 cases, but not for other causes.

In Asia I'm hearing that they will only count CV19 if they believe it is the main contributing factor. How they determine that I don't know. This is just from what relatives living in those regions are telling me, I haven't found any data to back this up.

Not sure how it is done here.

There will be a lot that would claim this as anecdotal evidence. But I too have heard this from family members in the UK and other sources. But have not evidence to back it up either.

The problem is, if you don't fall in line with the narrative, and you sprout this as gospel, you are labeled a conspiracy theorist or condemned for not being a medical professional.

[Whitey-AMG]

What’s becoming disturbing is that it’s starting to become all about statistics and semantics. Collateral damage / risk analysis. This type of thinking ( strategy ) is usually employed in a war situation where only numbers count.... it’s easier to justify actions and accountabilities that way. Low percentage, low risk , Fark it , go ahead.

I guess it looks like we all have a $$ value associated to a life value after all.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by cheap

My point is, measuring the ‘excess C19 deaths’.

It's like arguing we dont need airbags because not many people die in car crashes.

There have been very few excess deaths because of the steps we've taken. Compare excess deaths in countries that responded poorly, too late, or not at all.

[T3rminator]

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51979654

"The death figures being reported daily are hospital cases where a person dies with the coronavirus infection in their body - because it is a notifiable disease cases have to be reported.But what the figures do not tell us is to what extent the virus is causing the death.
It could be the major cause, a contributory factor or simply present when they are dying of something else."

"For example, an 18-year-old in Coventry tested positive for coronavirus the day before he died and was reported as its youngest victim at the time.
But the hospital subsequently released a statement saying his death had been due to a separate "significant" health condition and not connected to the virus.
There are, however, other cases, including health workers, where people have died with no known health conditions."

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by cheap

My point is, measuring the ‘excess C19 deaths’.

Since ~1st March with Australia’s first recorded c19 death, there’s been 108 C19 Aussie deaths.

And based on a average 450/deaths/day well over 60,000 Aussies have died during the same period.

Ask a statistician about measuring the excess.

One of my best mates has just been diagnosed with stage 4 cancer. Statistics say he has 0-5 years of life left.

I will be sure to tell his wife and boys, 16 and 18 how many other people have died while they were waiting for him to die.


Not....

[Whitey-AMG]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51979654

"The death figures being reported daily are hospital cases where a person dies with the coronavirus infection in their body - because it is a notifiable disease cases have to be reported.But what the figures do not tell us is to what extent the virus is causing the death.
It could be the major cause, a contributory factor or simply present when they are dying of something else."

"For example, an 18-year-old in Coventry tested positive for coronavirus the day before he died and was reported as its youngest victim at the time.
But the hospital subsequently released a statement saying his death had been due to a separate "significant" health condition and not connected to the virus.
There are, however, other cases, including health workers, where people have died with no known health conditions."

Chicken or the egg ?

AIDS virus works in the same way. You don’t die of the AIDS virus per se, the death is due to the complications it brings with exisiting or pre existing immune challenges. So if an AIDS victim dies of pneumonia, how is that recorded ?

[FPV8U]

Originally Posted by Whitey-AMG

I guess it looks like we all have a $$ value associated to a life value after all.

Sadly at some point this will be the case, if for example a successful vaccine or an approved treatment cannot cannot be developed within a certain timeframe the risk v reward marker will slide, not everyone can work from home, economically the third and first world are both taking a hammering and that cannot be maintained for an indefinite amount of time whilst expecting a government to maintain a level of serviceability to its people.

We all have our different views on this topic that have cyclically been discussed in here since the beginning of all of this some months ago.

We are now seeing the compulsory mask debate come into Australia, in time it will be a compulsory vaccine debate.

These debates will rage on as will the push for us to return to a less restrictive environment at risk of infection and possible fatal infection for those who are less capable of naturally fighting off the disease.

[cheap]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

One of my best mates has just been diagnosed with stage 4 cancer. Statistics say he has 0-5 years of life left.

I will be sure to tell his wife and boys, 16 and 18 how many other people have died while they were waiting for him to die.


Not....

Each to their own. Death isn’t a contest any of us can win.

[Whitey-AMG]

Originally Posted by FPV8U

Sadly at some point this will be the case, if for example a successful vaccine or an approved treatment cannot cannot be developed within a certain timeframe the risk v reward marker will slide, not everyone can work from home, economically the third and first world are both taking a hammering and that cannot be maintained for an indefinite amount of time whilst expecting a government to maintain a level of serviceability to its people.

We all have our different views on this topic that have cyclically been discussed in here since the beginning of all of this some months ago.

We are now seeing the compulsory mask debate come into Australia, in time it will be a compulsory vaccine debate.

These debates will rage on as will the push for us to return to a less restrictive environment at risk of infection and possible fatal infection for those who are less capable of naturally fighting off the disease.

All of these things will challenge our civil liberties and the lifestyles we have all become accustomed to. The real debate will be why we are doing what we’re doing. Is it to preserve our way of life or to preserve our economy which many will state is how we secure our way of life ....
Time to re assess what matters most and how we preserve that. In 2-3 years time we’ll have global vaccination security for CVD-19. The issue will be how we manage the next unknown zoonotic viral outbreak again and what will our priorities be.

[Work Horse]

The constent questioning of the true number of Covid deaths descends into conspiracy theories.

Originally Posted by Work Horse

We all understand it is impossible to give real time fatality rates for Covid 19 when large numbers of people are affected.

China claimed when the outbreak was under control they went back over their records and realised they had not counted all deaths.

The number of deaths in Wuhan was found to be nearly double the original number claimed.

Weather we believe that or not, China was heavy criticised for hiding the truth about the disease and lying to the world.

Other countries are not going to make the same mistake, that is why death rates may be overstated.

[fordomatic]

Hearing rumours of stage 4 by Friday in Melbourne

[CoupeKing]

Can I get one of those masks for next winter so I don't catch a cold.

[Sprintey]

What level is stage 4? Completely house bound?

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by fordomatic

Hearing rumours of stage 4 by Friday in Melbourne

Yeap same.

[T3rminator]

At this moment in time, its fake news. Rumour started off as midnight tomorrow.

Check SMH blog 5.01pm

[cheap]

Meanwhile, as reported in The Australian...

Vic health chief flags tougher restrictions
Further restrictions in Victoria ‘need to be considered’, Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton says, adding: ‘We can’t rule anything out’

[Franco Cozzo]

Stage 4 means nothing if you don't quantify what it is

Next week Melbourne is going into Stage 73 lockdown.

[XR Martin]

Deaths arnt overstated.
In the 2nd quarter of this year, the US had 120k more deaths than the same time last year. Only 90k were officially recorded as covid related.

The UK has a similar excess 'unexplained' deaths (something like an extra 10k and that figure was months ago) , and so do alot of countries.

BTW the UK early on were not recording covid deaths unless they were in a hospital.

[XR Martin]

I've said it before, but deaths arnt the real issue.

How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

There are two problems with this question.
It neglects the law of large numbers; and
It assumes that one of two things happen: you die or you’re 100% fine.

The US has a population of 328,200,000. If one percent of the population dies, that’s 3,282,000 people dead.

Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. That more than doubles the number of annual deaths all at once.

The second bit is people keep talking about deaths. Deaths, deaths, deaths. Only one percent die! Just one percent! One is a small number! No big deal, right?

What about the people who survive?

For every one person who dies:
19 more require hospitalization.
18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives.
10 will have permanent lung damage.
3 will have strokes.
2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness and loss of coordination.
2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive function.

So now all of a sudden, that “but it’s only 1% fatal!” becomes:
3,282,000 people dead.
62,358,000 hospitalized.
59,076,000 people with permanent heart damage.
32,820,000 people with permanent lung damage.
9,846,000 people with strokes.
6,564,000 people with muscle weakness.
6,564,000 people with loss of cognitive function.

That's the thing that the folks who keep going on about “only 1% dead, what’s the big deal?” don’t get.

The choice is not “ruin the economy to save 1%.” If we reopen the economy, it will be destroyed anyway. The US economy cannot survive everyone getting COVID-19.

[GO FURTHER]

Originally Posted by XR Martin

I've said it before, but deaths arnt the real issue.

Those equations are flawed, because it also assumes that the entire US population would have to contract Covid-19

That's the only way 3,282,000 would die at 1% mortality rate.

That's not going to happen.

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Stage 4 means nothing if you don't quantify what it is

Next week Melbourne is going into Stage 73 lockdown.

Not stage 73! Noooo!

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

Those equations are flawed, because it also assumes that the entire US population would have to contract Covid-19

That's the only way 3,282,000 would die at 1% mortality rate.

That's not going to happen.

That's right, but how many will get it? Herd immunity kicks in at around 70% so there will be about 2,300,000 deaths by then. If it's just like the flu then how many get that each year? Bearing in mind we have a vaccine for the flu.
I did think that after a certain number of deaths people would begin to treat this seriously, but I'm having second thoughts. The whole issue has become politicised and rational behaviour has gone out the window. A french bus driver was kicked to death for asking people to wear a mask.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-...masks/12446606
And will people like this ever change their mind?
https://crooksandliars.com/2020/07/f...over-our-faces
I don't think the virus gives a rats about your politics but if your politics leads you to ignore facts you have a problem.