Twilight for the traditional ICE automobile

[wodahs]

also sort of on topic
arnt there bio fuels that are eco friendly ?

https://www.educationquizzes.com/edu...-fossil-fuels/

https://viterbigradadmission.usc.edu...ally-friendly/

https://www.wired.com/1999/10/enviro...riendly-fuels/

so wouldnt this help the ice engine where the ev doesnt cope ?

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by wodahs

also sort of on topic
arnt there bio fuels that are eco friendly ?

so wouldnt this help the ice engine where the ev doesnt cope ?

You would think, bio has gone silent lately while they try to flog something new. Mine comes secondhand from 2 local cafe's. 1 uses Cottonseed oil, the other uses Canola. Either stuff finely filtered, mixed together and cut with diesel doesn't make any difference to how my trucks run. It ain't rocket science.

I do know of a couple of farmers who grow their own crop and run on what they have left over. However usually cut with diesel.

[ozrunner]

Originally Posted by b0son

.................Australia sold more than double the EVs in the first half of 2021 than in all of 2020.........Not sure why you're taking this so personally.

So they sold another 10 !!!!

Sorry not intentionally personal just trying to point out how ridiculous your comment is regarding Oz not selling any new ICE vehicles in 10 years and I see it's now 4 who will be lampooned come 2031.

With EV's currently not even at 1% of new car sales how in all honesty can you extrapolate that by 2031 this will increase to 100% in Oz is mind boggling. We will be the next Cuba. It will also mean than we will have to adopt nuclear power before then to cope as sun and wind won't.

I'm sure all members here will be happy with your notion that in 10 years they will not be able to update their rigs with anything other than an EV.

You guys keep quoting other countries proposals which are totally irrelevant as we are in Australia. We do our own thing and always have and will. I wouldn't want to be the Oz Government of the day that announces this as they will have a very short term, hmm rhymes with Shorten who announced a similar dumb *** proposal and look where that got him.

I have stated that there is a place for EV's in populated CBD's etc with short distances involved but I will also add this. Currently in Oz I see EV's for some as being a fad must have and this is supported in the measly less than 1% of sales. Then you have those that think EV's are a status symbol, then the lemmings with the rest being brain dead and by that I mean honestly after doing a 4-600klm trip in this thing [refer attachment] you would have to get out being totally brain dead from the pure luxury an excitement.

The average ozzie doesn't like big changes in their life and it's obvious that many are not convinced EV's will add any real improvement to their lives and in many cases be a PITA so why bother.

I know one thing whatever happens I will never put my bum in one of those insipid contraptions.

I hope I'm still standing by then so be prepared for a flogging come 2031.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by ozrunner

So they sold another 10 !!!!

8688, but lets not let the facts get in the way of a good rant.

https://www.whichcar.com.au/car-news...ommitment-2021

With EV's currently not even at 1% of new car sales how in all honesty can you

I said 10-15 years, so 2036. we were still driving sedans 15 years ago and the Aus car industry was going strong.

You guys keep quoting other countries proposals which are totally irrelevant as we are in Australia. We do our own thing and always have and will.

Except that in those last 15 years, we stopped doing things our own way, where manufacturing is concerned.

All academic, we'll probably all be dead from covid-28 because the chinese decided pangolins really were tastier than bats...

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by ozrunner

So they sold another 10 !!!!

Sorry not intentionally personal just trying to point out how ridiculous your comment is regarding Oz not selling any new ICE vehicles in 10 years and I see it's now 4 who will be lampooned come 2031.

With EV's currently not even at 1% of new car sales how in all honesty can you extrapolate that by 2031 this will increase to 100% in Oz is mind boggling. We will be the next Cuba. It will also mean than we will have to adopt nuclear power before then to cope as sun and wind won't.

I'm sure all members here will be happy with your notion that in 10 years they will not be able to update their rigs with anything other than an EV.

You guys keep quoting other countries proposals which are totally irrelevant as we are in Australia. We do our own thing and always have and will. I wouldn't want to be the Oz Government of the day that announces this as they will have a very short term, hmm rhymes with Shorten who announced a similar dumb *** proposal and look where that got him.

I have stated that there is a place for EV's in populated CBD's etc with short distances involved but I will also add this. Currently in Oz I see EV's for some as being a fad must have and this is supported in the measly less than 1% of sales. Then you have those that think EV's are a status symbol, then the lemmings with the rest being brain dead and by that I mean honestly after doing a 4-600klm trip in this thing [refer attachment] you would have to get out being totally brain dead from the pure luxury an excitement.

The average ozzie doesn't like big changes in their life and it's obvious that many are not convinced EV's will add any real improvement to their lives and in many cases be a PITA so why bother.

I know one thing whatever happens I will never put my bum in one of those insipid contraptions.

I hope I'm still standing by then so be prepared for a flogging come 2031.

Of course there will still be ICE vehicles being sold in Australia beyond 2030 but it’s almost certain
that they will have some degree of electrification, be that hybrid or more likely, PHEV.

Currently, BEV sales look to be ~1% of monthly sales but we also know that Tesla doesn’t report
its monthly sales but deduction of imported numbers (all pre sold) is averaging ~2000/ mth.
So a little deduction puts that at just under 3% of sales and a long way to go with any impact.

What will be interesting is BYD next year will offer up to six BEVs in Australia including a Ute.

[ozrunner]

Originally Posted by b0son

8688, but lets not let the facts get in the way of a good rant.

https://www.whichcar.com.au/car-news...ommitment-2021

I said 10-15 years, so 2036. we were still driving sedans 15 years ago and the Aus car industry was going strong.

Except that in those last 15 years, we stopped doing things our own way, where manufacturing is concerned.

All academic, we'll probably all be dead from covid-28 because the chinese decided pangolins really were tastier than bats...

Wow how could you not comprehend the 10 was obviously taking the ****. Your response that I'm not quoting exact sales number facts to support my take is bizarre.

The facts are this is an irrelevant number as whatever it is, it only represents 0.7% of total sales that is the fact. You can up it to 500k if it makes you feel better but 0.7% is always only going to be 0.7%.

Yes, you did say 10-15 years and NOT just 2036. So either in 2031,2032,2033 or …... we will see the results and my bet is they won't even be close in any of these years so with your no new ICE projection I guess you are saying we then become the new Cuba.

Your are freely able to have an opinion and express it just as I am able to do along with some who now appear to be having an each way bet. But there's a lot of smarter people than any of us doing the EV sums but from what I've seen the consensus seems to be around 18% of sales by 2030 so we will see.

[Bossxr8]

Manufacturers can try to force people into EV's, but they have to be willing to buy them first.

[xxx000]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Manufacturers can try to force people into EV's, but they have to be willing to buy them first.

and people can stomp their feet and say 'no I won't' for reasons that become less and less logical as time goes on.

I can still recall people resisting the intro of disc brakes, ABS and power steering on their favourite cars. They kept insisting each was unnecessary and pointed out 'issues' with each

My current dream car is a Model X wrapped in matte grey with large wheels and I've never even driven a Tesla!

NSW has just announced 1000 new charging Stations for EV's!

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Agree, I don't know any real farmer around here that would use anything besides diesel.

Compared to some of these trendy alledged green towns around who are just city hobby farmers playing farm.

Besides that that farmers get cheap diesel too.
Model S wouldn't handle too many farm driveways I've seen but I guess the hobbyist would have that concreted at the same time they upgraded to 3 phase to charge the dam thing

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Let's face it, the moment battery technology improves, ICE is dead in the water, .

could be but the only problem with that is when & where is this super battery?


its become a fall back excuse

[whynot]

Originally Posted by Vesper Martini

Model S wouldn't handle too many farm driveways I've seen but I guess the hobbyist would have that concreted at the same time they upgraded to 3 phase to charge the dam thing

I am sure the F150 Lightning will handle most farm driveways just fine.

https://www.motortrend.com/reviews/2...t-ride-review/

[Burnout]

Huge tracts of rural Qld have a single 7kv line for power. The is one only 12km as the crow flies from here.
I wonder how long it would take to recharge and EV on one of those lines and/or how many others on the same line would get knocked off the grid by someone using on to charge their EV.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Burnout

Huge tracts of rural Qld have a single 7kv line for power. The is one only 12km as the crow flies from here.
I wonder how long it would take to recharge and EV on one of those lines and/or how many others on the same line would get knocked off the grid by someone using on to charge their EV.

Over here the power goes out when there's rain, no rain, wind, no wind, people turn on AC, people turn on heaters, clouds in the sky, no clouds in the sky, Santa is dropping off presents etc.

That's without everyone having EVs on charge

[whynot]

Originally Posted by ozrunner

You must be talking to greenie hobby farmers. All the serious farmers and Station owners I've ever spoken to will only have diesel farm equipment and vehicles and won't have it any other way. No matter what the circumstances are they depend on diesel ICE to always fire up when needed for a long hard days work. I can't really quote on here what they say about EV's lovers.

Nope. Cattle farmers on +3K Ha.

They (the cattle farmers) are not there yet, but they are certainly watching the technology and, importantly, the economics. Given the depth of the technical questions I was being asked, I suspect they will jump across when it becomes cost effective.

Originally Posted by ozrunner

Bugger me that sums it up. 2070 !!!! Why are we even talking about this now. As I've said before and with your now projection virtually all of us will be camping underground well before then and be of no use to a worm whatsoever.

I guess maybe by then Australia might have finally made the move to nuclear power so as to recharge these things as solar or windmills won't cut it.

It took from 1880 to 1960 (around 80 years) for the electricity grid to reach the fringes in Australia. Telephone landlines took around 70 years. Mobile telephones first appears in 1981, yet as late as 2013 only 50% of Australians had a mobile phone. Televisions around 50 years to reach market saturation. Conversion of steam engines to diesel engines for rail transport took around 30 years. Interconnected computers first appears in 1969, with the current IPv4 internet address scheme released in January 1983 (nearly 40 years ago).

The point that I was trying to make is that technology does not magically evolve overnight, it is a gradual process that occurs over decades.

Nor is it a linear process. It appears to go in fits and starts.

My estimate of the conversion of ICE to EV taking 50 odd years is a guess, but I suspect it is close to the mark. There was some early attempts in the 2000's, but it wasn't until Tesla came along that we started to see a quantity of EV roll out the factory door (particularly the last three years). Over the next five years will see a number of EV introduced which will be very mainstream in looks.

Whether we agree with it or not, there certainly is a societal / political push to move across to EV. Which I find rather weird. Ten years ago most of the green energy web sites were predicting the death of the electricity grid (does the term "grid death spiral" ring a bell?). Some twits predicting it disappearing as early as 2020. Yet, here we are ten years later fretting if the grid will be able to handle the additional load from EV.

Regardless, I also suspect there will be cases (steady decreasing over the decades) where ICE and liquid fuel makes economic sense for quite a number of years.

So, the question put for by the OP is how long is the twilight for ICE automobiles and what drivetrains would we be able to enjoy.

I was looking forward to the Mazda inline six in a CX-50. But, thinking about it a bit more, I am not so sure. By the time the CX-50 reaches out shores I suspect there will be some interesting EV to think about.

[whynot]

Originally Posted by Burnout

Huge tracts of rural Qld have a single 7kv line for power. The is one only 12km as the crow flies from here.
I wonder how long it would take to recharge and EV on one of those lines and/or how many others on the same line would get knocked off the grid by someone using on to charge their EV.

A small technical correction, the Ergon SWER (Single Wire Earth Return) is 11kV, 12.7kV or 19.1kV.

Ergon have posted some interesting stuff

https://www.ergon.com.au/network/net...of-grid-supply

And some stuff on their stand alone supplies to replace SWER.

https://www.ergon.com.au/network/net...-power-systems

SWER come from a different age and was never designed to support the loads they are expected to today (like domestic air conditioners).

There is some very interesting development work happening with SWER, STATCOM, Solar PV, and a battery bank.

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by whynot

I am sure the F150 Lightning will handle most farm driveways just fine.

https://www.motortrend.com/reviews/2...t-ride-review/

Sure, but were not getting that here.

besides that I specifically said model S

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Over here the power goes out when there's rain, no rain, wind, no wind, people turn on AC, people turn on heaters, clouds in the sky, no clouds in the sky, Santa is dropping off presents etc.

That's without everyone having EVs on charge

plus expect a lot more outages when people spend that extra 2 grand for the necessary 3 phase to be fitted to charge these things.

[ozrunner]

Originally Posted by whynot

Nope. Cattle farmers on +3K Ha.

They (the cattle farmers) are not there yet, but they are certainly watching the technology and, importantly, the economics. Given the depth of the technical questions I was being asked, I suspect they will jump across when it becomes cost effective........

The point that I was trying to make is that technology does not magically evolve overnight, it is a gradual process that occurs over decades...........

My estimate of the conversion of ICE to EV taking 50 odd years is a guess, but I suspect it is close to the mark. …........….
.
Whether we agree with it or not, there certainly is a societal / political push to move across to EV. Which I find rather weird.

Excellent response and agree except for your farmers who with a 3000ha sized farm are really on hobby dairies and their probably close to civilisation

I was referring to real farmers on outback stations that have to be confident that their transport or equipment will not let them down and expect them to always operate in all conditions be it stinking hot or freezing cold. They also don't treat them like we do as they are just a tool. I doubt any EV could survive under these conditions.

There are approx 450 stations in WA with an average size of 196,000ha a little more than 3000. From my discussions with these guys they don't want anything to do with EV's and it's not hard to understand why being totally impractical.

Country Australia is not bitumised suburbia and for those on here who make and support such statements as “.Funny how people crap on about the size of Australia and claim that makes EV's not feasible here.” don't have a effing clue.

Your 50 year projection is probably close to the mark but I doubt it will be a majority as ICE in some form will still prevail. I see Hyundai are massively ramping up their hydrogen plans with engines already being tested so there's no guarantee what some may be driving in years to come.

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by ozrunner

Excellent response and agree except for your farmers who with a 3000ha sized farm are really on hobby dairies and their probably close to civilisation

I was referring to real farmers on outback stations that have to be confident that their transport or equipment will not let them down and expect them to always operate in all conditions be it stinking hot or freezing cold. They also don't treat them like we do as they are just a tool. I doubt any EV could survive under these conditions.

There are approx 450 stations in WA with an average size of 196,000ha a little more than 3000. From my discussions with these guys they don't want anything to do with EV's and it's not hard to understand why being totally impractical.

Country Australia is not bitumised suburbia and for those on here who make and support such statements as “.Funny how people crap on about the size of Australia and claim that makes EV's not feasible here.” don't have a effing clue.

Your 50 year projection is probably close to the mark but I doubt it will be a majority as ICE in some form will still prevail. I see Hyundai are massively ramping up their hydrogen plans with engines already being tested so there's no guarantee what some may be driving in years to come.

You neglected to mention that of the 450 stations their usual mode of transport is by air.

[Vesper Martini]

I think there was a test for an electric Planes in 2019, they were happy with Its 15 mins of flying time.
oh but wait for the next gen batteries...

[kypez]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

You neglected to mention that of the 450 stations their usual mode of transport is by air.

As I've said many times before, if it doesn't work for the outback station or farmers, they can continue to be provided fuel the way they get it now. EVs don't have to be all things to everyone. I can drive to Broome from Sydney but stuff that, I'd rather fly. Doesn't mean everyone living in Sydney should also fly between suburbs; driving works fine there. As Gasolane pointed out, many farmers have some form of air transport; does everyone in a city need to use the same transport option as well? No.

So if there is a usecase that EV's don't meet, so be it; Continue using ICE till we get there. The policies are for the other 90%+ of population that can use EVs effectively.

Trucks and similar will benefit from Hydrogen as well given the increased payload available. Have truck hubs for Hydrogen especially for Road Trains and similar. When they get into city limits and split out, they can possibly use EVs or continue to use Hydrogen.

Heck, I race and at the moment, we don't have enough charging infrastructure at Race tracks nor recovery gear. Guess what, I use ICE!! But getting my ICE there and back can be towed with an EV.

Anyway, point is, they don't need to be all things for everyone.

[Vesper Martini]

What vehicle will you be using to tow? I assume not the model S, and how far do you need to tow?

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Vesper Martini

What vehicle will you be using to tow? I assume not the model S, and how far do you need to tow?

I've done a test tow with a Model X with US spec tow kit (allows for greater ball weight) to see if it could be done. Bloody hell its a joy to tow with and you barely notice you're towing at all! Towed from Sydney to Goulburn (Wakefield Park). Roughly 200kms. There are fast chargers there to top up to get back to Sydney and there is a slow charger at the track. I could mention Sydney Motorsport Park but that was a short drive but they have chargers there (just not the faster chargers so the car will be topped up by the end of the trackday; roughly 3 hours needed to charge).

You're right, I can't use my S at the moment. The Model 3 is limited to only 1000kg so can't tow a race car (but could tow in tinny/jetski/etc); Model Y will move to 1600kg. I meant it more that is can be done now if you had a Model X and as a future state that EVs could be used for that (especially once we see Rivian or CyberTruck).

[Vesper Martini]

I have no doubt EV has the torque to tow, its just going to use a lot more juice.

so XR8 car in tow it needed charging at 200kms?

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Vesper Martini

I have no doubt EV has the torque to tow, its just going to use a lot more juice.

so XR8 car in tow it needed charging at 200kms?

Total range was shy of 400 without towing. It probably had about 50 kms left when I got there. There are fast chargers every 200 or so kms all the way to Melbourne or Brisbane. The drive back is more downhill I've noticed and the car uses much less (well, technically, the downhills charge the battery up a bit so produce a bit of energy too).

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by kypez

I've done a test tow with a Model X with US spec tow kit (allows for greater ball weight) to see if it could be done. Bloody hell its a joy to tow with and you barely notice you're towing at all! Towed from Sydney to Goulburn (Wakefield Park). Roughly 200kms. There are fast chargers there to top up to get back to Sydney and there is a slow charger at the track.

I used to do the Hume every night in a previous life and due to the terrain Syd to Goulburn always took longer than Goulburn to Syd.

So I'd be curious if it used the same amount of battery going home.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

I used to do the Hume every night in a previous life and due to the terrain Syd to Goulburn always took longer than Goulburn to Syd.

So I'd be curious if it used the same amount of battery going home.

Yeah, this is what I've noticed as well. The drive back always uses significantly less energy than the drive there. Don't have to charge the car up as much for the drive home than on the drive out. Similar behaviour I've noticed on the drive to and from Bathurst via the Great Western.

[ozrunner]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

You neglected to mention that of the 450 stations their usual mode of transport is by air.

Surely you two are kidding.

So the boss says get your parachutes guys as you need to fix the trough at windmill 12 so I'll drop you off.

Every morning along with their workers their USUAL mode of transport will be an ICE diesel ute and it may have to do a lot of rough klms in a days work and it will remain so for many years to come.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by ozrunner

Surely you two are kidding.

So the boss says get your parachutes guys as you need to fix the trough at windmill 12 so I'll drop you off.

Every morning along with their workers their USUAL mode of transport will be an ICE diesel ute and it may have to do a lot of rough klms in a days work and it will remain so for many years to come.

Sure. They can stick with Diesel's. No one is forcing them to change if their usecase is such. Don't get caught up on the notion that they need to be all things for everyone. The outliers can still use their ICE for their farms.

Curious, how many kms would they do in a day on a farm? We talking 500kms plus round trip daily? Honest question as I don't have that information. They could potentially split fleets for EV up to 550kms and ICE for all other things. But if it doesn't work for them, its fine. They can stay with ICE.

All the people who say Australia is big but you can still use an EV to travel are tourism travelers who have a lot of time available to them. I get that. Those who can't wait 30 minutes to charge each time or can't modify their route to fit chargers in would be stuffed with EV's as it stands now. It will, no doubt, change in the future but as it stands, let them keep using ICE. There are plenty, as i've said before, that can make the change (even at their current price point). For those who can't afford an EV, why begrudge them or hate on them. The scope is just those who can afford it for now. As it gets cheaper, the market for the product will expand.

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by ozrunner

Surely you two are kidding.

So the boss says get your parachutes guys as you need to fix the trough at windmill 12 so I'll drop you off.

Every morning along with their workers their USUAL mode of transport will be an ICE diesel ute and it may have to do a lot of rough klms in a days work and it will remain so for many years to come.

Perhaps it'll make you feel better if I'd said that the usual method of going to 'town' or visit neighbours is their plane.