Covid 19 -

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by marty351

Be warned, the copper chopper goes on the prowl a night, heard them a few times already.

Might buy an EF/EL for the run, world's worst headlights those things would make you invisible to anyone in a helicopter can't even light up the road

[arronm]

Its time for WA to split from the infected east

[gooseneck]

We're going a bit nuts aren't we.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

russellw, I'm sorry but your COVID-19 associated calculations, and charts are all wrong.

Please have a look at the link below. You need to consult this guy, who is (obviously) the world expert on COVID-19. His calculations and his charts are.. well, much better.

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/sta...20588998582273

I'd link the full interview, but I'll save everyone from the headache.

I stand corrected for having the temerity to suggest that factual data would be more relevant than lunatic ramblings carefully cogitated thoughts from the leader of the free world ^TM

Originally Posted by roddy1960

How do our Victorian forum members see the overall handling of the pandemic in your State , especially with Daniel Andrews and his team in mind given what's happening at the minute

I've been generally happy with the approach taken. I was concerned that we dropped out of the tighter lockdowns when it looked like the first wave was largely 'over' but then so did the other States and they haven't seen anything like the same impact. With hindsight a couple of weeks more might have been a good thing.

I also was advocating a tight lockdown when this second wave first got out of the bag in late June and sadly it now means not only have a lot of people died who may not otherwise have died but the lockdown we are having now will be for longer just to make certain. We probably could have gotten away with a 4 week Stage IV lock down from (say) the 7th July and then it is probable that a reasonable percentage of the 9,987 cases since that date wouldn't have occurred - or the associated 100 deaths either.

But as I've said before, hindsight is a wonderful thing and while we were both in favour of stronger lockdowns, I also understand the economic pressures the Government was under to try and return to 'normal' as early as it was possible.

History will write the story of how each country and even each State of ours managed throughout this pandemic and there will be examples of what not to do (Sweden, USA et al) and perhaps examples of where it was really well managed although none spring to mind immediately.

In terms of the country as a whole, I think we were too quick to believe we'd beaten it and being self congratulatory, lulled into a false sense of security by early June when we were down to single digit daily case numbers and no deaths for a 22-day period.

The signs were there though. Case numbers rose steadily after that first week in June which only had 39 cases and the next weeks ran like this:

13-20 June 119 (a 205% increase)
21-27 June 205 (+72%)
28 June - 4 July 721 (+252%)
5-11 July 1,191 (+65%)
12-18 Jul 1,888 (+59%)
19-25 July 2,507 (+33%)

.. and then another 59% increase this week before the decision was made.

I'm not saying that need necessarily have raised massive alarms but the first wave peak 7 day numbers were only around 2,500 cases in the worst week of March (22nd-28th) and they were spread around the country on that occasion whereas this time the majority were from one State. Indeed, drilling down on that March week of 2,500 cases; 18% were Victoria, 47% NSW, 16% Queensland with the balance spread around the remaining States.

I think some sectors in our community have done really poorly.

The private aged care sector has hardly covered itself in glory and while they only recorded about 10% of the cases, they also racked up ~40% of the deaths (and counting). It was already undergoing an inquiry and the terms of reference have quite rightly been expanded to include that fiasco.

We've seen too many cases from the abattoirs. Yes, the workers are in close proximity but so then are other industries and I suspect this might have something to do with the largely migrant workforces in the facilities which have been impacted.

The BLM protesters; anti-mask wearers; people deliberately flaunting the restrictions; those who have failed to stay at home once quarantined; security companies who failed to provide training or adequate equipment for their staff or even help them realise just how important the job was and everyone who has decided that they just had the flu and went to work anyway.

PS: for whoever was asking Victoria is 23% of the Australian GDP.

[arronm]

No issues in WA. Lets keep the borders closed

[russellw]

I was looking through the countries with zero deaths to see if anything could be gleaned but they are mostly tiny places like Anguila (3 cases, population 15K) but there are a couple worth noting:

Bhutan (103 / 177K);
Cambodia (240 / 16M)
Mongolia (293 / 3.2M)

If the figures reported are accurate then there has to be a reason why there isn't a single fatality amongst those 636 cases given that even in Australia that would be ~6 deaths and based on the global average it would be more like 24.

Someone mentioned South Korea as being worth a look and yes, they had a very early onset with high case numbers peaking at 851 on March 3rd but that was reduced to the 70-100 level by mid-March and got down to single digits by mid-April although it gradually increased to the 50-60 cases per day level where it has remained pretty much ever since. This would suggest that their early strategy was very effective but that they have either eased those restriction or people stopped complying at the same level.

It's a country with about twice our population (51M) but they have had less total cases (14,389 compared to 18,318) but also about 50% more deaths. On a population basis they have had 28 cases / 100k (71) and 0.587 (0.867) deaths per 100k. Only their CMR of 2.092% is worse compared to ours at 1.2%. The only question mark as far as case numbers is that they have tested a lot less of their population than we have - 3% compared to 10%.

[CoupeKing]

What's the fatality rate of people that work at supermarkets? I mean, they're on the front line and all.

[russellw]

We've had one supermarket outbreak that I' m aware of, LaManna Supermarket at Essendon Fields. It is apparently linked to 32 cases but no deaths that I am aware of.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by arronm

No issues in WA. Lets keep the borders closed

SA could say that a week ago.

[gooseneck]

Lets all just go to the winchester, have a cold pint , and wait for it all to blow over..

[gooseneck]

Originally Posted by leesa

If the majority are truly focused on profiting as much as possible at whatever cost then to be honest our species doesn't really deserve to survive. We're destructive, we don't think ahead or at least we don't care if what we're doing/wanting now has consequences down the track and we couldn't give a rats about others if it affects our own personal goals.
We've gone well beyond the advantages of capitalism and now we're just parasites really.

Please tell me that you're female and single.

This is exactly my thoughts, exactly. Except the people who should survive include me and other like-minded people. I have these same thoughts every day and I'm petrified at what the ultimate outcome of them will be. the fear of society as it is today coming crumbling down.

I know that this all feels un-natural, that billions of people everyday getting up and going to work just to make money to build a house made from natural resources that we are quickly running out of is wrong. They won't stop for nothing. We shouldn't be taking so much from the planet.

I blame the bankers, they keep on reducing the value of the dollar and forcing everyone to continue to work. You shouldn't have to work for 40 hours or more a week just to keep alive let alone stay indoors inside of a house, or continue to pay land rates on land that you've bought, or be forced to continue to pay for utilities when you're already off the grid.

I know that when it does collapse those people are going to be very angry, at someone, and they'll take it out on anyone who is near them.

Human beings have been living inside of caves for thousands of years and in this tiny little blip in history we're currently being forced into slavery just to keep breathing and eating and staying dry. That is wrong.

Its not that difficult to build a house, I did it when I was 14 years old, sure it looks like a rudimentary treehouse and it leaks and has drafts but at least I can keep working on it and improve it myself without having to pay someone else to do it. At least it has no taxes, no utility bills, no taxmen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKPUx_zKMAI

And the food is then all around me. And the neighbours are like minded individuals living in tribal communities. No need for a car or a job 50km away. Your job is keeping your family alive, living off the land, or entertaining them.

Oh yeah and a toothbrush shouldn't cost $5, I don't care what the excuse is. That is a sure fire sign that we've screwed things up so badly that not even a pauper can brush his teeth.

But I still have some hope. Taken from Religion mostly. Its the only thing keeping me alive because at least I get to talk to the same people who know that I do good things and they praise me for that. It is good.

Society is just... stuffed. Time to load up the

[russellw]

412 new cases for Australia and 11 deaths sees the CMR rise to 1.239% and active cases rise to 7,876. NSW recorded 11; SA recorded 1 with the balance in Victoria.

Here is a graph showing the climb in daily case numbers for Victoria since the first outbreak began:



No new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.404% and active cases drop to 22.

The UK recorded 670 new cases and 89 deaths yesterday so the CMR drops to 15.116%.

Just over 48.5k new cases in the USA yesterday and 567 deaths sees CMR down to 3.267% and active cases at 46.4% with the raw numbers actually falling slightly. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global deaths pass 700k with the last 100k taking 9 days (1 day longer than the previous 100k);
The USA completes 61M and Spain 7M tests;

Libya (226), Poland (680), Uzbekistan (981) and Philippines (6,352) recorded new daily highs, those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

The graph below tracks the elapsed time for each 100k deaths to be added to the total. Obviously, larger numbers of elapsed days are better.

[GO FURTHER]

Victoria is expected to record its darkest day yet, with 725 cases and 15 deaths expected to be announced.

COVID = Citizens Of Victoria Ignoring Directions

Or playing the devil's advocate... Is Covid-19 being deliberately spread?

[Citroënbender]

In the early days of HIV, there were pockets of people in some countries who felt they had nothing to lose by infecting themselves with it.

Take away meaningful life for some here and you may find a similar train of thought.

[Mr_G6ET]

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

.... Is Covid-19 being deliberately spread?

Some people simply don't care I suggest. Although not completely 'cut and dry', the younger Australians are statistically hurting the older or not healthy ones.

Attachment 103303

Attachment 103304

[Polyal]

To be expected, even unaware younger people or on the move more I would have thought.

[cheap]

Originally Posted by leesa

If the majority are truly focused on profiting as much as possible at whatever cost then to be honest our species doesn't really deserve to survive. We're destructive, we don't think ahead or at least we don't care if what we're doing/wanting now has consequences down the track and we couldn't give a rats about others if it affects our own personal goals.
We've gone well beyond the advantages of capitalism and now we're just parasites really.

Oh Leesa, I hear you, if only people would stop worrying about C19 and restart maximum efforts on Climate Change!!!!! Gosh I miss Gretta, she's been pushed out of the news, it isn't fair.

Originally Posted by gooseneck

This is exactly my thoughts, exactly. Except the people who should survive include me and other like-minded people. I have these same thoughts every day and I'm petrified at what the ultimate outcome of them will be. the fear of society as it is today coming crumbling down.

At least it has no taxes, no utility bills, no taxmen.

Your job is keeping your family alive, living off the land, or entertaining them.

Your ideals are perhaps a little bit more extreme than mine. There are some good things to come from modern society compared to 200 years ago, particularly with modern medicine and better sanitation so we don't die awful deaths from various diseases. Who wants to die from a treatable infection? probably noone.

It's just that I think we should have a focus on sustainability and putting it ahead of progress on the list of priorities. Keeping our numbers at sustainable levels, not harvesting natural resources beyond their regenerative capacity and just making sure that the world is always in a similar state instead of a decline so that next generations can live in the same world.

Taxes and levies are still needed so as to pay for communal facilities like water treatment, sewerage, rubbish and recycling facilities. What are you going to do about all those things truly off the grid?

All of that is an unreasonable expectation though because most of us just consume beyond our needs, hoard whatever resources we can and are generally of the belief that getting ahead at any cost is the thing to aim for in life. So many people seem to think that "constant gradual growth" is the gold standard but really how many things can constantly grow without some sort of long-term consequence? Is that really an achievable goal? Or are we just okay with it provided a few generations get to benefit from it while the ones further down the line have to pay for it? Where's the long-term planning in that?

Covid should make people realise that our country's self-sufficiency is important. We've become so dependent on other countries just to stay alive and look at what happens when those supply chains are interrupted? This time it's a virus but maybe next time it will be something else, war? who knows? What has globalisation really done for us and is it really worth it?

Living within our means should be important, being able to produce food without the farmers having to beg for an extra 10c should be important. Aren't we all interdependent? We should care about the other guy as much as ourself but we just... don't.

edited to add: oh and I definitely don't want my life to boil down to just keeping a family alive and entertained!

[blueoval]

Your dream may just come true if this is what we have to look forward to.

https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6178243325001

Potentially controversial question... but... which generation do you think is/was happier? Your parents or grandparents and their quaint simple life that probably didn't include many material possessions but probably also provided them great satisfaction?
.... or now? everyone speaking to each other on facebook, people fighting to obtain their little plot of space, kids with anxiety disorders, depression, no social skills, no jobs out there for them and living with mum and dad until well into their adult lives?

[Citroënbender]

I don’t know if it’s safe to generalise. My family has a 25% streak (per my generation) of lifelong depression and a tendency to addiction. So you couldn’t say those earlier bods were happier, and I don’t think for a minute they were unique.

I think all that’s happened is the people who see benefit in sucking others in, have far better tools to practice their craft with.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by leesa

Potentially controversial question... but... which generation do you think is/was happier? Your parents or grandparents and their quaint simple life that probably didn't include many material possessions but probably also provided them great satisfaction?
.... or now? everyone speaking to each other on facebook, people fighting to obtain their little plot of space, kids with anxiety disorders, depression, no social skills, no jobs out there for them and living with mum and dad until well into their adult lives?

This is way off topic...

However you are making a lot of assumptions there and some rather large generalisations.

[marty351]

Originally Posted by prydey

This is way off topic...

However you are making a lot of assumptions there and some rather large generalisations.

I think leesa is looking foward to driving the new Trabant.

Originally Posted by marty351

I think leesa is looking foward to driving the new Trabant.

Stuff the trabant, I reckon I'd pretty happily adapt to working horses in the field.

[arronm]

More covid for SA

[pottery beige]

keeping it real in radelaide

https://www.facebook.com/7NEWSAdelai...817/?clk_loc=5

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by leesa

Stuff the trabant, I reckon I'd pretty happily adapt to working horses in the field.

And they can pull the half-Trabant sulky to market every week.

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

And they can pull the half-Trabant sulky to market every week.

Hell yeah. If I could make a livable wage by taking things to market every week I absolutely would!

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by pottery beige

keeping it real in radelaide

https://www.facebook.com/7NEWSAdelai...817/?clk_loc=5

Someone with a sense of humour

Got my 'work permit' tonight - just need to get my Star of David from Victoria Police

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Someone with a sense of humour

Got my 'work permit' tonight - just need to get my Star of David from Victoria Police

Got an email from the country head this morning. All previous letters of approval have been revoked and we need to reapply. They are really putting the screws on the employers. Even if you are given a work permit, if authorities deem that the permit was granted to someone that shouldn't have received it, it is a fine of up to $100k for the employer and $20k for the employee.