Australia housing bubble

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by FTE217

they already decided themselves not having any till in their 30's which is todays way in general and so lucky modern drugs are kicking in helping us living longer so I'll be curious what that family gen photo will look like.

Getting a little OT now but you do realise that waiting until your 30's to produce offspring comes with its own risks dont you.
A woman of 25 years of age has a 1 in 1200 chance of producing a child with Down Syndrome, by 35 its 1 in 350 and gets significantly worse as they age, by 40 it is 1 in 100.
That is just one risk, there are many more.

Modern drugs can do wonderful things but they cant stop a womans biological clock.

[FTE217]

Not OTT at all, thems the facts, people in general are having families later and it wasn't because of property rising but wanting to live life prior to settling down, the opposite to the past so we've been led to believe.
During the time of enjoying themselves costs rise/rose whilst they spend.
Women want careers before baring kids (no worries to me good on them why not), yep those risks come into it.
The biological boundary has been tested for quite a while.
In the meantime these people make it harder for themselves to home ownership (unless they bought a investment in between), that is if they desire it today....

[chich]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Lol, i've been waiting for this chestnut, you guys are so predictable.
I rent, been in the same place for over 7 years now. Since i moved in the rent has gone up $15 from $285pw to $300pw for a 10yr old 4 bedroom, ensuite, walk in robe, with double garage UMR 2 minutes from an expressway which leads me 30 minutes directly to Adelaides CBD and $10 of that was due to having the owners install a ducted A/C system after the first lease was up.
I had them ditch the real estate agent after 2 years, she was useless and they save the 10% she was charging, i see them once a year when the lease is due.
Last week they messaged to see if they could come and do some maintenance, we were away camping so i said no, i'll let you know when it suits.
18 months ago we had some dodgy neighbours causing troubleso i informed them that i wouldnt be staying any longer, they messaged back asking me to meet them for coffee so they could discuss our concerns and offered us another of their properties, thankfully the neighbours left and peace has returned.
Does this sound like im whinging about the landlord..

To build the same house, which i looked into doing 18 months ago, it was going to cost me around double per week by the time i factored in the interest, insurance, rates, emergency services levy, water rates etc. and when i spent a month wandering through the display homes i was disgusted at the quality and poor workmanship i figured why bother.

Mate, it's actually quite simple. Either sacrifice now, or be prepared to sacrifice a whole lot more in the later years. Rents/bills/insurances/regos/buildings whatever wont get any cheaper and in parallel you won't get any younger. Buy something - anything - so you've at least got something to your name and an asset that links you into the appreciating housing market. Don't look at the data, don't look at the stats.. jump in feet first and be done with it

[chich]

Originally Posted by Adamz Ghia

The last bit is the kicker. Yes there is plenty of cheap housing available, but if you work in Melbourne’s CBD and have to buy out in Tarneit, you can either drive an hour into the city (unless someone couldn’t handle the Point Cook bend and stacked it, if that happens it turns into two hours plus) and then pay for parking or catch a bus then a train then a tram and spend an hour and a half (on a good day) getting to work and the same getting home.

So where's the issue in buying in Tarneit and renting where you need to be? You become a landlord, negative gear the place and have someone else pay your mortgage?

[jmack]

it realy peeves me off when people go on about renting is cheaper than owning.yes it might be in some circumstances if you put away the difference for later in life . atleast when you own you can downsize,reverse mortgage etc and lives(sorry that should be exist) on those funds.i know a couple who lived their lifes(annual holidays etc) who are closing in on retirement and are starting to regret renting their whole life instead of owning and are now worried how they are going to afford rent in the future.rent min 400/week*52=20800 up against about 5k for rates etc

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by jmack

it realy peeves me off when people go on about renting is cheaper than owning.yes it might be in some circumstances if you put away the difference for later in life . atleast when you own you can downsize,reverse mortgage etc and lives(sorry that should be exist) on those funds.i know a couple who lived their lifes(annual holidays etc) who are closing in on retirement and are starting to regret renting their whole life instead of owning and are now worried how they are going to afford rent in the future.rent min 400/week*52=20800 up against about 5k for rates etc

Just my personal experience,
Knowing the way housing was going and not desiring to own a house in my 20's I did things in the total opposite way to most. Straight out of my (poor paying) apprenticeship I discovered I wanted to travel and work (nature of the job really) so I bought old boats and lived aboard while doing them up and selling them after a few years usually on the Hawkesbury or Central Coast NSW. Life was good, living cheap afloat, later as more work started to appear further afield and away from the coastal areas I decided to buy an old box truck and convert it into a motorhome I could stay onsite wherever I worked country and cities.
Over the years with several newer versions I've built to my needs, I started thinking how I missed out on the housing market and what the future could bring knowing "nothing stays the same"
While working in NE Victoria I found a couple of beaut little towns with great opportunities to buy land in town.
I know this doesn't suit others I'm sure but important to me was being on the Hume Hwy, having a local mechanic/engineer, local IGA and a railway service to Sydney (XPT) or Melbourne (Vline). Land had to be 1 acre, with trees and flat but not floodable walking distance to all above services.
Saved the money and bought through hard work with no debt, I now have a little cabin on it (500 sqft) which is 12 volt solar, wind powered, big shed for my trucks (and yacht I still have)
Maybe in the future I might get around to building a real house (maybe not) but for now my partner and I keep travelling.

Sorry bent8 we never wanted kids.

I admire guys and gals who sacrificed their younger working lives paying off houses and now reaping the rewards, good luck to them but I feel for younger generation who are locked into places like Sydney and Melbourne who need to break free.
One thing I absolutely hated when I was younger was commuting in a city, I would rather driver 1200km to a job and stay onsite than travel 10-40km one way to work each day.
As I said this is not the lifestyle for everyone and I didn't want to buy the caravan / motorhome thing when I was ancient.

[Fed]

There's too many people here.

[au350hp]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Getting a little OT now but you do realise that waiting until your 30's to produce offspring comes with its own risks dont you.
A woman of 25 years of age has a 1 in 1200 chance of producing a child with Down Syndrome, by 35 its 1 in 350 and gets significantly worse as they age, by 40 it is 1 in 100.
That is just one risk, there are many more.

Modern drugs can do wonderful things but they cant stop a womans biological clock.

It is actually the age of the man that causes most birth issues but perhaps stick to the topic.

[Maka]

Originally Posted by Fed

There's too many people here.

As in the country is over crowded & pushing house etc prices up? If so, there's a lot more to it than that..

cheers, Maka

[Fed]

Originally Posted by Maka

As in the country is over crowded & pushing house etc prices up? If so, there's a lot more to it than that..

cheers, Maka

That's what I mean Maka.

[Maka]

Originally Posted by Fed

That's what I mean Maka.

Np Fed, as we both know its all about supply & demand at the end of the day plus other factors influencing those real estate prices. A overcrowded market can push prices up for sure as well as cheap home loans or finance etc etc.

Fact is prices are sky high atm generally pricing some out of the market now & into the future in certain capital cities & some other regions of Australia.

cheers, Maka

[zipping]

Originally Posted by theunfairadvant

Housing Bubbles can never ever happening in Australia, house price in Australia doubles every 7 to 10 years and that is a fact
doesn't matter you like it or not.

A lot of people is thinking of owning their own house and keep saving for it which is a wrong way of thinking in the first place.
They should have bought the investment property first then another then
another and sit on it for a few years for capital growth then telling the
Bank that they want to do a reno on the kitchen and bathroom.

Then refinance and draw down on the extra equity on all their
investment properties and put a big chunk of deposit on the PPOR.

This way they will be able to pay off their home loan in half the time rather than the hard slog of 30 yrs.

The highlighted is just so wrong with the greatest respect. It makes me scared that people can come on a message board with great confidence and say that housing can't be in a bubble.

Because it is often difficult to observe intrinsic values in real-life markets, bubbles are often conclusively identified only in retrospect, once a sudden drop in prices has occurred.

As the OP the reason for the thread was that the economic data is indicating that potentially there is a bubble.

That means that people should be aware of the potential danger.

If the normal chance of a significant fall in house prices is say 1% then if as I suspect it is up to 5%-7% then as a risk to an investor that is a significant increase. Doesn't mean it will happen. Just that it should be considered when assessing the investment.

As it happens we seem to be gently deflating prices atm, which is a good thing for the economy and all partiipants.

The problem in Australia and to answer Bossxr8 question is that our Greenfield land is a huge cost compared to previous generations which forces up prices across the board before investors compete for stock.

It is a very short sighted situation having so much of workers income going on mortgages in Australia where we have an abundance of land. The problem comes if there is an economic shock and a significant fall in employment. Suddenly many houses on the market all at once.

As in previous posts I have compared Syd/Melb to Atlanta and Houston. The difference is shocking and is a direct result of government policy and interference.

When comparing generations the critical difference is that previously government policy did not have the impact that it has now. Greenfield land is far more expensive on any measure.

[ebzery]

i just had the battery fail i needed 4 tyres then when the car heated up the radiator failed and thats just tuesday.

[ebzery]

1 ac at torrington nsw 45000 with houseing frame buy now!

[au350hp]

I cannot see any danger in buying a house in populated cities. The demand is growing daily,like our population & it is not going to go backwards. Maybe it is at it's peak and may stabilise at the current prices, but it is not going to go backwards. If your not in the market, get in any way you can as it beats paying somebody else's mortgage for them. Fair to assume the negative comments of owning a house come from those renting as it is dead money anyway you look at it.

[ebzery]

had someone i know buy house in melbourne with a loan of the bank of melbourne that went bankrupt lost there house and ended up owing money after they couldn't refinance and the bank foreclosed on them beware of your contractes

[GO FURTHER]

With young people and couples priced out of the housing market, especially in suburbs close to the city and available work, I can see the future trend will become a popular option...

Parents that have a home on a deep block with large backyard, applying for dual occupancy subdivision, then allowing their children to build a townhouse/unit at the back.

[mr smith]

Originally Posted by theunfairadvant

Housing Bubbles can never ever happening in Australia, house price in Australia doubles every 7 to 10 years and that is a fact
doesn't matter you like it or not.

A lot of people is thinking of owning their own house and keep saving for it which is a wrong way of thinking in the first place.
They should have bought the investment property first then another then
another and sit on it for a few years for capital growth then telling the
Bank that they want to do a reno on the kitchen and bathroom.

Then refinance and draw down on the extra equity on all their
investment properties and put a big chunk of deposit on the PPOR.

This way they will be able to pay off their home loan in half the time rather than the hard slog of 30 yrs.

Yea OK, ask those who invested in mining towns how thats going.
Australia is in the middle of the world biggest ponzi scheme.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by chich

Mate, it's actually quite simple. Either sacrifice now, or be prepared to sacrifice a whole lot more in the later years. Rents/bills/insurances/regos/buildings whatever wont get any cheaper and in parallel you won't get any younger. Buy something - anything - so you've at least got something to your name and an asset that links you into the appreciating housing market. Don't look at the data, don't look at the stats.. jump in feet first and be done with it

Mate, i dont need to, i jumped in in 2001, sold in 2005 and doubled my money, i've seen both sides of the fence and as i rented the property i bought i didnt get all fuzzy on settlement day, i just inherited the problems and debt.
When i sold i had real estate companies tell me it was the best present period property in the wider area and if everyone presented their properties as i did their job would be much easier, first viewer bought it for full asking price, didnt even offer less.
Dont let my current lifestyle choices mislead you.

I'll buy again, when my kids have all left and i only need 2 bedrooms and quite likely it'll be a new transportable in a retirement villiage where i dont have to purchase land or deal with maintenance.

[au350hp]

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

With young people and couples priced out of the housing market, especially in suburbs close to the city and available work, I can see the future trend will become a popular option...

Parents that have a home on a deep block with large backyard, applying for dual occupancy subdivision, then allowing their children to build a townhouse/unit at the back.

I run a little garden design/maintenance business and have done 9 granny flat style jobs in the last 12 months alone. I believe the Blacktown council (one of NSW 10 biggest) has scrapped fees usually associated with building extra dwelling's on your property. It is a wonderful way to share the load with your kids or folks if your the sort of family that can live together. When I was a kid, people used to make fun of Italians & Greeks for buying houses next door or close by. I never understood what was funny about it as it makes perfect sense. Perhaps a strategy for younger people to consider with their family or good friends, especially if you have a building trade.

[pottery beige]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Mate, i dont need to, i jumped in in 2001, sold in 2005 and doubled my money, i've seen both sides of the fence and as i rented the property i bought i didnt get all fuzzy on settlement day, i just inherited the problems and debt.
When i sold i had real estate companies tell me it was the best present period property in the wider area and if everyone presented their properties as i did their job would be much easier, first viewer bought it for full asking price, didnt even offer less.
Dont let my current lifestyle choices mislead you.

I'll buy again, when my kids have all left and i only need 2 bedrooms and quite likely it'll be a new transportable in a retirement villiage where i dont have to purchase land or deal with maintenance.

if you sat tight on that original place instead of selling, would the mortage be paid off by now and what $$$ would it be valued at today??

not taking the ****

we all have reasons, situations we are in and decisions made at the time

[fordomatic]

Originally Posted by mr smith

Yea OK, ask those who invested in mining towns how thats going.
Australia is in the middle of the world biggest ponzi scheme.

Buying in a mining town is extremely high risk, those that bought in mining towns knew full well of the risk. 10 years ago everyone said we were in a housing bubble, my family told me i was stupid to buy at the time. I bought my first house (well the bank did) in an area that is nothing special. Since then it's gone up 150% and now they are saying it will pop, exactly what everyone said 10 years ago. The government won't allow it to pop or the economy will crash, simple as that.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by Roostercam

It is actually the age of the man that causes most birth issues but perhaps stick to the topic.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/317861.php

Hmm..you sure?

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by pottery beige

if you sat tight on that original place instead of selling, would the mortage be paid off by now and what $$$ would it be valued at today??

not taking the ****

we all have reasons, situations we are in and decisions made at the time

Its worth maybe 20k more now, current owners let it go. 3 bedroom ex trust detached (not a semi, single house on a block) on peachey rd davoren Park, bought for $62k in 01, sold for $165k in 05.

Not sure what the situation would be in terms of remaining mortgage, like many others i may have added a new car or 3 to it etc. because i could, certainly wouldnt be a pioneer there either.
If it came up for sale tomorrow i could drop $30k on it and still be paid off before retirement age so whats the diff really.

Cant compare Adelaide with Sydney, in capital gains or lifestyle but i love it for its laid back ease.

[pottery beige]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Its worth maybe 20k more now, current owners let it go. 3 bedroom ex trust detached (not a semi, single house on a block) on peachey rd davoren Park, bought for $62k in 01, sold for $165k in 05.

Not sure what the situation would be in terms of remaining mortgage, like many others i may have added a new car or 3 to it etc. because i could, certainly wouldnt be a pioneer there either.
If it came up for sale tomorrow i could drop $30k on it and still be paid off before retirement age so whats the diff really.

Cant compare Adelaide with Sydney, in capital gains or lifestyle but i love it for its laid back ease.

[au350hp]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/317861.php

Hmm..you sure?

I won't get into a debate, especially quoting stats & articles. It is a touchy subject and one best left alone. Best we agree to disagree.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by fordomatic

Since then it's gone up 150% and now they are saying it will pop, exactly what everyone said 10 years ago. The government won't allow it to pop or the economy will crash, simple as that.

OMFG... interest rates fell by 5.25% over the last 10 years. That's the only thing that supported the market, it's the only reason the market could afford to pay million dollar prices.

We're at a RECORD LOW cash rate of 1.5% ... that's a tiny 1.5% margin the government have up their sleeves (well, the RBA strictly speaking, not the government) with which to prevent the economy tanking.

The only thing simple here seems to be peoples understanding of economics.

Talk about complacency....

[b0son]

Originally Posted by Roostercam

I won't get into a debate, especially quoting stats & articles.

Here's one... on housing though...

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/201...g-boom-really/

Paul Keating says the housing boom is over (but what would he know, right? he only instated some of the most profound economic changes in our country's history).

Articles finishes with

Liquidate property now.

Anyone thinking about getting into property, wait. You're going to be buying in at near the top of the market, and we've potentially a long way down....

[au350hp]

Originally Posted by b0son

Here's one... on housing though...

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/201...g-boom-really/

Paul Keating says the housing boom is over (but what would he know, right? he only instated some of the most profound economic changes in our country's history).

Articles finishes with

Anyone thinking about getting into property, wait. You're going to be buying in at near the top of the market, and we've potentially a long way down....

We are close to owning our home & also have a couple of smaller investments. Our house is currently worth over three times what we paid for it and we are selling up to move to the Blue Mountains in the future which is substantially cheaper than Sydney. Whatever happens with the housing market, were in front already & if the prices drop, so will the price of the next place we buy. I still think Australia will be in good stead simply due to good old supply & demand through population growth & migration.

[asagaai]

And to throw in another curveball.

ABC reported today that for the first time in Australia casual workers now constitute over 50% of the workforce. Casual workers are disadvantaged compared to full time workers as they do not have the income security, nor the added full time employee benefits.

They added that the increasing "contractors" demanded by large employers, so employers avoid the employee obligations- are the worst off.

The report mentioned a graduate from University, with a MBA in an area in demand, had a HECS debt of some $90,000- could not get a full time position-only casual- and trying to pay back the HECS and save for housing and worries about work- she is being treated for anxiety for first time in her life.

It would be horrible trying to enter the market and take out a large loan on casual intermittent employment-actually horrendous.