"Peak Value" for classic cars

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by slowsnake

The whole point of an apprenticeship is to learn the practical aspects of your chosen trade with theory being 20% of your learning, and 80% on the job.

You can learn a lot from the internet, or YouTube, but it don't give you that tradesman or Master of Apprentices looking over your shoulder guiding you!
But it's all interesting, and intimidating especially to a 1st year apprentice!

Not sure how long since you did your apprenticeship but I spent mine mostly on my own without tradesman supervision and had to figure it out myself

Most the time these days they get used as cheap slave labourers in automotive or imported on 457 visas prior to the pandemic because you can treat them like ****, pay them **** all and if they complain you cut them loose and they get deported if they can't find someone else to take them on - was a good article bitching about it in automotive aftermarket magazine a while back about the industry losing all its staff and how some businesses had success by implementing a 'buddy system' (read your legal obligation for apprentices) and pay reviews

This sort of **** is only going to get worse as asset prices increase, you can't get auto tradies around Melbourne as it is now for the going rates, the workshop that maintains my ****box fleet has been looking for 12 months and been unable to land anyone for the usual going rates, even had my customers try poach me from work to go back to the tools.

[Sprintey]

Slowsnake I do agree with you that it is best to be shown in a traditional apprenticeship system by people who are good at what they do. My youngest is luckily in this situation at present. But it is possible to re-create skills if you are tenacious enough. Take the 'trade' I learned while young, surfboard manufacture: there have been no traditionally defined apprenticeships (even very recently the skillset was not even a TAFE style accreditation) so you watch and learn from someone good while working a role for them, or you do a bit of this and develop your own techniques over time. So, it can be done.

oldel, the housing market is taking everything. Agree on that point. The young are playing with their 'P' plate cars which might be an AU V8 bomb, and so it's those they might want later - currently cheap now, even compared to housing. I've got a twist on the idea that international tastes might be what the young want in the future; that is might be mud-pigs instead. Like I said before, offroad is where the Gen Z guys get to be free, and so their happy memories might be in a modded Navara of all things (just been sent the Saturday snap of one flooded into the floorplan haha).

I dunno if these classics, currently high in price, will be flogged off for nothing though. The entrance of investment funds and financialisation of classic cars has seen dynamics enter the market that wasn't there before - a result of central bank policies flooding the world with currency. The suckiest future would be that they stay high in price and no-one can afford them and this is also a possibility. It's monetary Clown World since 2008.

[oldel]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

The young are playing with their 'P' plate cars which might be an AU V8 bomb, and so it's those they might want later -

Forget late model falcons ever being a classic that a kid might pay for big in 10- 20 years, already running out of spare parts, and unlike Japanese and Euros nothing ever going to be made overseas to import for cars unique like a falcon. IE I can still get old BMW parts because they were sold globally, but already hitting the brick wall of obsolete parts from ford for a falcon.

Also once the world goes big time into electrics I wonder who is going to make parts for 90s and onwards cars (ie the classic of the future people are speculating on now), the factories of the world are going to start specialising in completely different types of spare parts, like battery/electric parts rather than ICE parts.

It will be like prewar cars are now, not many into them because parts have to be hand made or modified, hunted for or bought at extreme high prices.

[slowsnake]

Rarespares!.....

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by slowsnake

Rarespares!.....

They got bought out by GPC Asia Pacific - the huge corporate monster that owns Repco, NAPA, et al.

https://www.aftermarket.com.au/gpc-a...s-rare-spares/

Give it a few years and the corporate accountants will get involved and ruin it.

The volumes just aren't there for the corporates to be happy - just like RDA Brakes used to be only available through its reseller network and not to trade workshops or wholesale distributors:

https://view.publitas.com/ashdown-in...o-parts/page/1

Now anyone can buy it through NAPA

To me, it doesn't make sense to have Rare Spares when everything it sells could be available through Repco/NAPA, it'll eventually disappear and the low volume stuff will go with it unfortunately.

[RANGEREST]

Imho peak value is here now.
Used cars, motorcycles and caravans have most definitely peaked a few months ago and are already the slide (moreso motorcycles)
I just bought a 2014 xls 4x4 ranger for my young fella for 15k, I don't think classic cars will necessarily lose value, but the crazy rise will slow down.

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by hayseed

^^^I'm not Too sure about That.^^^

Well I can qualify that and say that the few extra $$ to be wrung out of them won’t match the 7th wonder of the world- compound tax free returns for super investors.

[buggerlugs]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Well I can qualify that and say that the few extra $$ to be wrung out of them won’t match the 7th wonder of the world- compound tax free returns for super investors.

[FPV8U]

If it’s purely on an investment basis, I’d be comfortable moving whatever the car is at the moment, the market is strong and as the world starts to assume some normality new car availability will put some downward pressure on prices.

I’ve had my XR8 for 15 years, I’ll retire it to summer driver status next year then enjoy it with my family as it becomes a reflection on a by gone era.

[fordomatic]

Originally Posted by RANGEREST

Imho peak value is here now.
Used cars, motorcycles and caravans have most definitely peaked a few months ago and are already the slide (moreso motorcycles)
I just bought a 2014 xls 4x4 ranger for my young fella for 15k, I don't think classic cars will necessarily lose value, but the crazy rise will slow down.

Depending on kms that is a serious bargain.

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Well I can qualify that and say that the few extra $$ to be wrung out of them won’t match the 7th wonder of the world- compound tax free returns for super investors.

Yep, I've been sacrificing My own money into my Super for over 35yrs.
As for how long the Current status quo remains regarding the way they're Taxed. Is another subject for a another Thread another Day..

[Jack91]

Modern muscle (xr8, SS) will keep going up for 2-3 years. Don't know where that will land.

In-between muscle (3rd gen Camaro, Late 80s transam) will plateau and stay where it's at

Classic muscle (1st gen Camaro, b body Mopar, tri 5 Chevy) stop in its tracks and come back down a bit.

Historics (T's and A's etc, not the exotics) were and still are way undervalued in my opinion. I'd expect original body cars to climb indefinitely.

You can put all your money in super or stocks, but if the market crashes, all you got is regret.
Car market in my opinion can't and won't crash overnight, and even if it did, you'll still have a cool car.
I don't think a good example of any classic car (except a very high $ classic muscle car) will depreciate at all, ever.

[Giant Cranium]

It’s mk 5,6 and 7 golfs that are the future classics of the current generation. The don’t care about the 90’s and 2000’s cars like I have no interest in many cars before 1980

[Citroënbender]

Salient to this thread, someone on FB/Insty needs to shout out to Vehcor. He’s got a a lightly damaged V8 Commodore sedan in the US Pontiac guise, and is considering parting it out… Seems to think it’s only worth about $11 thou repaired?

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Giant Cranium

It’s mk 5,6 and 7 golfs that are the future classics of the current generation. The don’t care about the 90’s and 2000’s cars like I have no interest in many cars before 1980

My fellow millennial

Pretty much this, same here.

[BENT_8]

Question is, what are you keeping it for?

If its because you love it and cant part with it then obviously keep it, if its because you want to gain the maximum return then now is probably the time to sell if you're happy with what its worth as hanging out for absolute peak is crystal ball stuff and could quite easily come and go before you realise, then you'd be kicking yourself for not getting out when you could.

I've been a car guy since as early as i can remember, had plenty of cars, never been one to hang on to any of them and never been into collectibles, just buy them, drive them, play with them, move them on.
Its cost me tens of thousands of dollars over my life but its still better than alcoholism or a gambling habit so i dont let it bother me, but as i've aged i've realised that the playing with them is less of an incentive, i just want a vehicle that i can get in, turn the key and it'll do what i need it to do.

Yesterday i gave the Fiesta a full service, changed the front rotors and pads, last night i sat in my chair and felt every bit of it on my knees, back, neck etc. etc.
I said to the Wife, fark this, we earn enough to pay someone else to do this **** now.

I'll always be into cars and i have a thousand pics to remind me of the glory days but i dont need a driveway full of work to come home to at the end of a long week of work.

[slowsnake]

Cars, any cars are designed for driving not looking at, if ya don't drive it then all I can say is what a shame, sell it and buy something you can drive, let someone else enjoy the pleasure of whatever it is you cherish so much!

10 years ago in Sydney, after surgery, I was told by my neurosurgeon not to drive my 4x4, even on road, he advised me in very strong terms not to drive my 85 C4 Corvette Coupe back to Perth!
Yikes, my dream was to drive it across the Nullabor, it was not to be, red on red and fully loaded, I got the 2000 AU2 I still drive now and $14 thousand bucks cash, do I regret it, well no, not really, it would of decimated what's left of my lumbar spine, the 4x4 too.
It was as fate would have it, for another "Terry Tacho" to enjoy!

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by Giant Cranium

It’s mk 5,6 and 7 golfs that are the future classics of the current generation. The don’t care about the 90’s and 2000’s cars like I have no interest in many cars before 1980

Aren't Mk5 Golfs 2000s cars? Mk6 late 2000s?

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Question is, what are you keeping it for?

If its because you love it and cant part with it then obviously keep it, if its because you want to gain the maximum return then now is probably the time to sell if you're happy with what its worth as hanging out for absolute peak is crystal ball stuff and could quite easily come and go before you realise, then you'd be kicking yourself for not getting out when you could.

You also need to realise that if you cash in, the likelihood if you getting another one if you decide you love it and want another is slim

[Falcon SXR8]

So many have "cashed in at the peak" only to regret it later. One mate cashed in on his fairly mint xc hardtop at the peak of $9000 and then a few years later cashed in his xy gt rep at the peak of $15000, lucky he got out of them when he did......

[In Focus]

I wonder what this one would be worth: Original 1976 Datsun 280Z with 350 miles on the clock.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZlI...hannel=AMMONYC

[Trevor 57]

Originally Posted by Falcon SXR8

So many have "cashed in at the peak" only to regret it later. One mate cashed in on his fairly mint xc hardtop at the peak of $9000 and then a few years later cashed in his xy gt rep at the peak of $15000, lucky he got out of them when he did......

a mate of mine bought a XY GT replica for $35k about 2 or 3 years ago, he could sell it now for over $50k easily

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by Falcon SXR8

So many have "cashed in at the peak" only to regret it later. One mate cashed in on his fairly mint xc hardtop at the peak of $9000 and then a few years later cashed in his xy gt rep at the peak of $15000, lucky he got out of them when he did......

I think you have made an error in the above post, it contradicts itself?
Sure you don't want to rewrite it?

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by In Focus

I wonder what this one would be worth: Original 1976 Datsun 280Z with 350 miles on the clock.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZlI...hannel=AMMONYC

It would if you found the right buyer!....some cashed up older person may have an affinity for that model, even that colour, and pay the right price, which is mucho dollero hombre!

[Citroënbender]

The question of a hitherto-collectible’s ongoing relevance to a market as generations change, is interesting. Some cases seem to defy “logic”. Bradman’s gear, Louis Armstrong’s bent trumpet, Blue Poles, a ‘67 fastback all come quickly to mind. I’d think calling a peak on the current Oz car market may be preempt.

[.:4:.]

Originally Posted by In Focus

I wonder what this one would be worth: Original 1976 Datsun 280Z with 350 miles on the clock.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZlI...hannel=AMMONYC

The issue with that car isnt the shape the body and interior is in, it would be more to do with how it was stored. So if it was parked on its wheels not on stands with all the fluids in it, even with a full fluid flush, you never know what damage may lurk internally. Same with wheel bearings going bad from sitting etc.
Back in 2007 my mates parents were moving to qld so his dad put up his hq gts monaro for a quick sale to fund the move. The car had been sitting for 20 years, but his old man was a mechanic so it was on stands and had been drained. So whilst the thing only had 28 thousand genuine miles on it, my mates old man was a drag racer so in the mid 70s early 80s it was modified. So originally it was a manual 253, but it was swapped to a 396 chev bored to 404ci. 3k stall backed by a th400 and a ford 9 inch. It had a half cage and a racing harness for the driver. Paint was mint as it was kept under blankets. Cant remember exactly what my mates dad said he would periodically do to it before turning the motor by hand in the time it sat, but before sale time it was coolant, oil, brake fluid, trans fluid, diff oil, fuel, a battery and new tyres. So it ran fine after its slumber. It sold for a drop in the ocean compared to todays market. $20k.

[slowsnake]

Mate of mine has one sitting in the front garden, in Smithfield Sydney, half roll cage, 253ci motor, swapped for a 308ci, separate gearshift for reverse, so Saginaw gearbox, saw it 2011, it was just a total rustbucket, but hecwouldent sell it, I offered to help drag it around the back and build a covered carport extension and get it up on blocks?
Answer was no, he was a crazy alcoholic, 3 years off for drink drive and a yellow sticker, that was 2006, it's such a damn shame, and its probably still sitting there, everyone who sees it stops and wants to buy it, answer is always no!
I forced the bonnet and no carbie just leaves and a mice nest, I warned him if it gets too bad as in rust it will stop being a car, I said you must have more than the tags, bet it's still there, 10 years later!

[fgpsi]

can't wait to drive a converted electric 351c with fake clevo sounds coming out the speakers

[.:4:.]

Originally Posted by slowsnake

Mate of mine has one sitting in the front garden, in Smithfield Sydney, half roll cage, 253ci motor, swapped for a 308ci, separate gearshift for reverse, so Saginaw gearbox, saw it 2011, it was just a total rustbucket, but hecwouldent sell it, I offered to help drag it around the back and build a covered carport extension and get it up on blocks?
Answer was no, he was a crazy alcoholic, 3 years off for drink drive and a yellow sticker, that was 2006, it's such a damn shame, and its probably still sitting there, everyone who sees it stops and wants to buy it, answer is always no!
I forced the bonnet and no carbie just leaves and a mice nest, I warned him if it gets too bad as in rust it will stop being a car, I said you must have more than the tags, bet it's still there, 10 years later!

My mates dads gts was well taken care of. Not even a rust pimple. It was parked in the car hold purely for the reason it was too impractical as a street car after having kids, and he heeded the threats from his wife as drag racing was too dangerous. Not so much at eastern creek, before wsid existed, but illegal street drags at brickies in homebush.
In around 2000/2001 my brother wrote off his 83 vh hdt. Second owner, my uncle bought it new. My uncles trade in was an eh Holden with a 350 chev conversion.
Insurance paid my brother 3 grand for the car. Had it been after peter brocks unfortunate passing, the insurace number would have been a lot higher. Nostalgia does funny things to car prices.
The other then 'worthess' car my brother had and ended up scrapping was a wb kingswood ute. He bought it modified. So instead of the 253 and column shift auto, it had an efi 304 and matching 4 speed auto from a 1996 hsv clubsport. Wb caprice front end, all the side trims, electric mirrors, shaved tray hooks, wags rear bumper and was 2 pac midnight blue. Wb caprice interior and the ac worked. But, as nice of a car it was, the moment you looked at it, it would start to rust. Then if you looked at said rust it would rust more. It was clean as when he got it in all aspects, but the maintenance regime was more or less, if it starts....

[Falcon SXR8]

Originally Posted by slowsnake

I think you have made an error in the above post, it contradicts itself?
Sure you don't want to rewrite it?

Nah seems fine to me, you must have misunderstood it.