Dowling reckons End of road for Falcon and Commodore in 2016 - Page 2

jpd80 · 16-01-2013, 06:05 PM

Good to see that Josh Dowling knows so much about the local industry....not.

For years, he and his buddies tried to convince everyone that falcon was dead, replaced by taurus
but now that's not happening in 2014, it's take another bite and tell everyone it's 2016...

Josh, here's a big clue for you,

Going from Euro 3 to Euro 4 was arguably a bigger jump than going from Euro 4 to Euro 6
the cost of Euro 6 compliance work is more than likely less than Euro 4.....$21 million

Bill M · 16-01-2013, 06:15 PM

Both those clowns pottinger/dowling seem to be on a mission to undermine any foundation the local car industry has for the future.
I wonder did Joe Hockey read their negative drivel?
Bill.

Resurrection · 16-01-2013, 06:16 PM

This news is no surprise for us who used to work in the industry and dealt with both Ford and Holden.

DanielXR8 · 16-01-2013, 06:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flappist

Just wondering, when you play cards do you show the other players what you are holding just in case some random passer by thinks you may lose the hand?

The major players in this card game analogy, being Holden and Toyota have already played their hands and moved on. The only one being hurt at the moment by this is Ford, unless the play is to say Ford is out come 2016.

Really this complete silence makes no sense if Ford is aiming for a post 2016 production cycle of any vehicle in Australia. Even if Ford do not wish to commit or even comment on what comes down the line post 2016, a simple comment to the media that there will be something, definitely a car of some sort post 2016, would kill or at last reduce the harm of a lot of media stories.

Ford Australia are either going to kill local production and are trying to minimise the damage to sales in the meantime or are still fighting with Ford US to keep the doors open. That is the only logical conclusions I can make of it.

If you are arguing that this is some kind of smart strategy that results in slower sales, bad news stories, but somehow will work out better for Ford in the end. I think there would be a ton of suppliers, dealers and potential buyers who would beg to differ.

jpd80 · 16-01-2013, 06:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DanielXR8

The major players in this card game analogy, being Holden and Toyota have already played their hands and moved on. The only one being hurt at the moment by this is Ford, unless the play is to say Ford is out come 2016.

Really this complete silence makes no sense if Ford is aiming for a post 2016 production cycle of any vehicle in Australia. Even if Ford do not wish to commit or even comment on what comes down the line post 2016, a simple comment to the media that there will be something, definitely a car of some sort post 2016, would kill or at last reduce the harm of a lot of media stories.

Ford Australia are either going to kill local production and are trying to minimise the damage to sales in the meantime or are still fighting with Ford US to keep the doors open. That is the only logical conclusions I can make of it.

If you are arguing that this is some kind of smart strategy that results in slower sales, bad news stories, but somehow will work out better for Ford in the end. I think there would be a ton of suppliers, dealers and potential buyers who would beg to differ.

With a large cars like Falcon or even Commodore, Ford and GM would be loathe to plan too far ahead,
I recon four years in front is about right, so the decision on post 2016/17 is probably only just being decided now...

So why would Ford or GM openly commit to a post 2016/17 large car when they don't know themselves..

jpblue1000 · 16-01-2013, 07:08 PM

I would have thought the grants, subsidies and other ongoing benefits to business provided by the taxpayers of our country would demand some form of long term commitment to the community, further than just 2016. we pay they stay!
But I guess we the taxpayer don't deserve value for our money...Not just the car manufacturing industry guilty here either.
JP

flappist · 16-01-2013, 07:16 PM

Big picture guys. I personally will continue to buy Falcons while they make vehicles I want.

Should they not make them I will buy something else. At this time there is no other Ford product available in Australia that appeals to me so unless that changes should Falcon be discontinued I will look elsewhere.

I am only one customer but every journey no matter how long starts with one step.......

Bucknaked · 16-01-2013, 08:04 PM

The rumours have been around for a while. It's not that I believe the rumours, but I thought it was a good excuse to upgrade to the FG

GTP534 · 16-01-2013, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flappist

Big picture guys. I personally will continue to buy Falcons while they make vehicles I want.

Should they not make them I will buy something else. At this time there is no other Ford product available in Australia that appeals to me so unless that changes should Falcon be discontinued I will look elsewhere.

I am only one customer but every journey no matter how long starts with one step.......

Yep that's right. It would be sad if local manufacturing did stop but the only thing I could continue to do is support Ford Australia. If Falcon does go I'm sure there'll be some other Ford product that I would want to buy.

ShootsWithFilm · 16-01-2013, 08:20 PM

I want to know if this is the case of the dog wagging the tail, or the tail wagging the dog?

Yes, there is no denying that the big sedan segment is not like it used to be, but how much is this to do with the media TELLING us what we should be buying, which then snowballs into real sales, ect, ect.

The big problem with this is that after a while, you have to seriously question the worth of buying the big Ford sedan, simply because you wonder whether there will be the support for them in years to come. I know this has effected my next purchase choice, but thankfully Ford Aust have a winner in the Territory, which just so happens to meet my needs.

One thing I will say, though, I for one am sick of the constant Euro push - FFS, a Golf is a German Corolla and don't get me started on the Eastern European Dog poop piles they call Skoda's. I had an interesting conversation with an English sales rep at my local Ford dealer on the weekend - while I am sure he is biased, he totally understood my displeasure of certain Europeans being slated as luxury cars in our market. While my going joke is the Skoda, he couldn't believe how much people pay for the likes of Renaults in this country, considering how lowly regarded they are in the UK.

Anyhow, back to Mr Dowling - I have a bit of first hand experience (former MMAL employee) on how the media can bring a manufacturer to its knees. I for one would like to see some good press from him for a change.

Joe5619 · 16-01-2013, 08:34 PM

You got to love these guys, the same crap comes out every year at this time.. Only difference this year is Ford has very openly said " we are looking at what post 2016 looks like". This is how turned into Ford is closing manufacturing!! At least Holden is coping it too this year. Why does Toyota never get anything writen about it's manufacturing future? What has Toyota committed to?

BroadyFord · 16-01-2013, 08:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joe5619

Why does Toyota never get anything writen about it's manufacturing future? What has Toyota committed to?

Toyota have just opened a new $300+ million engine plant that is intended to be around for the next generation Camry, i.e. after 2016/17. They're also looking at adding a third model at Altona, possibly RAV4. They are arguably the most stable of the 3 manufacturers.

jpd80 · 16-01-2013, 09:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpblue1000

I would have thought the grants, subsidies and other ongoing benefits to business provided by the taxpayers of our country would demand some form of long term commitment to the community, further than just 2016. we pay they stay!
But I guess we the taxpayer don't deserve value for our money...Not just the car manufacturing industry guilty here either.
JP

Perhaps you should show how offering a combine $50 million for Ford to continue
production of Falcon for at least two more years is not good business?

Revenue in that period would be around $4 Billion as well as business activity is justified..

The GST on that $4 billion alone is just under $400 million from those products.

stevz · 16-01-2013, 09:16 PM

http://www.news.com.au/news/holden-f...-1226555305476

Yet another article from this Dowling dropkick. This time it's "Holden and Ford Dead". If I were Holden or Ford, I would be taking legal action against this tool, as his articles are doing immense damage to both brands. It looks like he won't rest until Australian auto manufacturing is well and truly dead and buried.

**Burnout** · 16-01-2013, 11:21 PM

Dowling et al have operated with impunity for years. They do so because we let them.....
They are vulnerable though. Their inaccuracy needs to be brought to the attention of their twitter fans, readers & more importantly to their advertisers. Flappist pointed this out the other day.

Sitting on the forum whimpering about the lying tossers in here just continues to play into their hands. Forum users would be much better of obtaining the FB pages of the advertisers or the email addresses and warn them if these continued inaccuracies remain support for their products will be withdrawn.

These blokes can be trolled out of town and quite quickly....... They might even be reduced to reporting on lawn bowls events in..... say Elliot, NT.

Road_Warrior · 16-01-2013, 11:29 PM

Yes, we need more people to take to Twitter. There are a few of us doing it, but the numbers arent enough and he is blocking some of us because we dared challenge his misleading articles. Tomorrow, it's gonna be on like Donkey Kong. Wouldnt you love to take part in all this fun and merriment?

Get stuck in.

stevz · 16-01-2013, 11:30 PM

If there is anything more infuriating than the articles themselves, it's some of the absolute utter garbage written in the reader's comments. I just cannot believe how ignorant and brain dead some people are when it comes to Aussie cars. Why do so many people have an agenda of killing large Aussie sedans and forcing everyone into imported front wheel drive buzzboxes or suv's?
I seriously need to refrain from reading anymore articles or threads on this issue as the blood pressure is getting too high.

Auslandau · 16-01-2013, 11:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevz

If there is anything more infuriating than the articles themselves, it's some of the absolute utter garbage written in the reader's comments. I just cannot believe how ignorant and brain dead some people are when it comes to Aussie cars. Why do so many people have an agenda of killing large Aussie sedans and forcing everyone into imported front wheel drive buzzboxes or suv's?
I seriously need to refrain from reading anymore articles or threads on this issue as the blood pressure is getting too high.

What ..... you mean "Out of date gas guzzlers .... "

Apart from the EcoBoost and EcoLPI doing well in the petrol stakes. My GT335 is sitting at around the 14l/100k at the moment ...... and beleive me when I tell you that is driven well and thats not freeway or country driving!!!!!! Happy with that for what it is.

bobthebilda · 17-01-2013, 12:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpd80

Perhaps you should show how offering a combine $50 million for Ford to continue
production of Falcon for at least two more years is not good business?

Revenue in that period would be around $4 Billion as well as business activity is justified..

The GST on that $4 billion alone is just under $400 million from those products.

You seemed to have mixed a few assumptions up there. If you are only talking about Falcon production for the next two years, and it runs at 18,000 units per year (including ute), then its going to be lucky to equate to $1.2 billion in business activity ($120 million in GST). Even if you add Territory to that, you aint going to get anything near $4 billion in sales. But in regards to GST, it doesnt matter if a $35000 locally made car is sold, or a $35000 imported car is sold, the government still gets the same GST.

If it made economic sense to subsidise the local car makers making 230,000 cars a year, wouldnt it make more sense to subsidise them more to make 1 million cars a year? 4 times more cars, means 4 times more workers, means 4 times more revenues for government from taxes etc.

**Polyal** · 17-01-2013, 07:27 AM

Saw this on the news this morning, not good, sure there have been some stupid articles lately but this was the first time I have seen both Holden and Ford bundle in one segment on TV.

There are many people to blame for all of this, little of it IMO is the market itself or these knobs, GMH and Ford give the local clowns to much ammunition and make it very easy to create the rubbish they do.

Its all very unfortunate.

Dr Smith · 17-01-2013, 08:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2011G6E

Whole different world now to back in the eighties when V8's disappeared from Fords lineup. All that saved Ford was the availability of overseas engines that met new emissions requirements.

.

Which overseas engine was put into local cars that helped Ford meet anti-pollution requirements? Or are you referring to the use of overseas sourced components when the "Alloyhead" sixes were released in XD+ days like Yamaha(?) supplied heads?

Dowling will hide behind the line" don't shoot the messenger, I'm only stating what is", however he writes as though it's fact or doesn't clearly state that he is "guessing" on the future. In fact it's only Holden that has openly stated Commodore won't be built after a certain time and that they are looking at a 2 model producton in the future. They have received far more government money for these future projects and thus need to divulge more now (cynically I would say) especially as the future of their engine plant is being openly mentioned by their management and maybe more government assistance is being sounded out. Ford have some government assistance up until 2016, so guess what they don't talk about anything post this date. And maybe, just maybe these decisions are starting to be formalised now, so they don't actually have anything concrete to add.

The infuriating thing is Dowling obviously knows this but it wouldn't make a great, news grabbing headline... and no Ford exec is going to invite him in and rip him apart because that would be counter-productive....but would make a great Youtube video, especially for us members to watch...

jpblue1000 · 17-01-2013, 08:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpd80

Perhaps you should show how offering a combine $50 million for Ford to continue
production of Falcon for at least two more years is not good business?

Revenue in that period would be around $4 Billion as well as business activity is justified..

The GST on that $4 billion alone is just under $400 million from those products.

but those figures arent quite right. as of october 2012 as an example not picking on them, fords revenues are 2.75 Billion and subsidies to that point are 102 million. however as input costs to revenue amount to about 90% and as its reported 50% of cost goes overseas for supply of components etc from non australian suppliers and ford made a loss of 289 million, loss would mean no tax will be paid, with losses deferred for offsets against future profits. The maths doesnt stack up. when you also consider the royalties payed to the parent companies of ford oz, gm and toyota far outstrips the grants etc it begins to get on the nose.
the australian government has been providing subsidies to auto makers for decades, the manufacturers use their employment base as leaverage to get more money, holden sacked 5000 workers as the then government wouldnt play ball. the gov coughed up the cash on the proviso the jobs were reinstated, this is all too common. and why do governments do this. because none of them want to preside over the failure of australias most visible manufacturing sector, as it is widely believed manufacturing is the only value adding we can do as a country.
and who pays the taxes the gst is paid by the consumer so they pay twice, the auto manufacturers do when they make profit, but im sure their accountants are better than mine so minimise where possible and of course those supply companies outside oz pay no tax to australia. so not only are the rewards for our grants dubious we are actually subsidising in small part overseas manufacturing. in my opinion its political money not spent well.

Rico 110s · 17-01-2013, 09:48 AM

According to channel 7 this morning Holden and Ford will discontinue the Commodore and Falcon, Now the Manager of Holden had let it slip that it will stop production of Commodore but I have not heard anything about the Falcon.
If nothing was said about Falcon then why are they reporting news about it without a formal report from Ford Management?

Has anyone heard news of this from Ford in any way?

turbodewd · 17-01-2013, 10:04 AM

Channel 7 will look pretty silly once Ford start advertising the new Falcon next year.

Joe5619 · 17-01-2013, 10:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by turbodewd

Channel 7 will look pretty silly once Ford start advertising the new Falcon next year.

They are not talking about the 2014 update. Why can't be get that? The talk is all post 2016. The 2014 update means jack!! I don't know what will happen either way, but I know the 2014 update means jack for post 2016!

And you can't blame the media, Ford have created this problem for years. The time is right to start showing your "hand". You don’t have to show every card, but we need some cards to be shown.

Dr Smith · 17-01-2013, 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rico 110s

According to channel 7 this morning Holden and Ford will discontinue the Commodore and Falcon, Now the Manager of Holden had let it slip that it will stop production of Commodore but I have not heard anything about the Falcon.
If nothing was said about Falcon then why are they reporting news about it without a formal report from Ford Management?

Has anyone heard news of this from Ford in any way?

I guess the difference is while now public knowledge Commodore production will end later this decade, Holden has stated it will produce 2 models in the future and so seems to have copped little negative press. Ford on the other hand hasn't made concrete decissions yet, so doen't have much to say, and like normal company policy likes to say nothing until the last minute as per it's past behaviour and so opens itself up to uninformed speculation in that void.

Dr Smith · 17-01-2013, 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joe5619

They are not talking about the 2014 update. Why can't be get that? The talk is all post 2016. The 2014 update means jack!! I don't know what will happen either way, but I know the 2014 update means jack for post 2016!

And you can't blame the media, Ford have created this problem for years. The time is right to start showing your "hand". You don’t have to show every card, but we need some cards to be shown.

You don't show your cards until the dealer deals them out and in this case the pack of cards is not printed yet...

Joe5619 · 17-01-2013, 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr Smith

You don't show your cards until the dealer deals them out and in this case the pack of cards is not printed yet...

What a load of rubbish!! That is no way to run a business of Ford's size. We currently have media saying Falcon is dead. That is not good for business & doesn’t build brand awareness!! Everything these days is sold by the power of a Brand name & Brand "Falcon" is becoming worthless. Ford are to blame here, not the media!!

Also your own post numbers 56 & 57 are saying the complete opposite things??

woolleymammoth · 17-01-2013, 12:16 PM

One read of the comments at the bottom of the article and it becomes obvious no one wants falcon, no matter how good it is. Bogan this bogan that, good riddance its gone ect. Makes me mad how the public has been brainwashed, I'm getting tired of driving my ute around lately with the hate from the police and the general public. Makes me feel like a massive targets on my back, and even if the falcons not dead yet with the mentality of most Australians at the moment I can't see it around for much longer.

Dr Smith · 17-01-2013, 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joe5619

What a load of rubbish!! That is no way to run a business of Ford's size. We currently have media saying Falcon is dead. That is not good for business & doesn’t build brand awareness!! Everything these days is sold by the power of a Brand name & Brand "Falcon" is becoming worthless. Ford are to blame here, not the media!!

Also your own post numbers 56 & 57 are saying the complete opposite things??

I said the same thing, twice, until Ford have made their final decisions they don't have anything public to release. My (obviously badly made play on your words) is that Ford's cards, when they print them will be dealt out.. Holden on the other hand is this week beginning to send out details about its engine plany troubles its play for govenment assistance, It's in trouble now and not going to get better.