VFACTS Oct 2018

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by deesun

Wasn't that long ago they were 1000s of units in front.

This.
Since ending local production of Commodore and Cruze,
Holden has seen a massive reversal of fortunes,

The once mighty Holden is now taking refuge in mediocre sales
that are better than Ford's pathetic offerings but the elephant
in the room remains, they have no local sales champion anymore.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Why does the blue line representing Ranger 4x4 on the graph stop well short of the current month?

Fixed. As sales didn't start until Nov 06 and the chart starts at Jan 06, the field has to actually have a zero in it rather than being blank. Has been that way for awhile.

Cheers
Russ

[BENT_8]

Thanks Russ.

Its interesting when you look at Ranger sales following Fords manufacturing closure in Australia, numbers dropped considerably over the following months and took 12 months before they rebounded to the same point as pre closure, would it be fair to assume this was due to people buying up the last locally made products and not the imports for those 12 months.

Now look at Commodore sales, they had a significant boost in sales in the month leading up to closure which could be attributed to people getting in before it was too late, then a significant drop until ZB came online and whilst i dont expect they'll ever reach the heights of locally built versions again, the ZB has stabilised in the short term.

As we are now at 12 months since closure for Holden, the same time it took people to pull out their wallets again for Ranger post closure, will we see an increase in ZB sales over the next 6 to 12 months as people look to move on from their then very used VF2's?

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Thanks Russ.

Its interesting when you look at Ranger sales following Fords manufacturing closure in Australia, numbers dropped considerably over the following months and took 12 months before they rebounded to the same point as pre closure, would it be fair to assume this was due to people buying up the last locally made products and not the imports for those 12 months.

Now look at Commodore sales, they had a significant boost in sales in the month leading up to closure which could be attributed to people getting in before it was too late, then a significant drop until ZB came online and whilst i dont expect they'll ever reach the heights of locally built versions again, the ZB has stabilised in the short term.

As we are now at 12 months since closure for Holden, the same time it took people to pull out their wallets again for Ranger post closure, will we see an increase in ZB sales over the next 6 to 12 months as people look to move on from their then very used VF2's?

Highly doubt it. ZB is unloved. Even Holden die hards hate the thing with a passion, cause it just ain't a Commodore, and it drives the wrong wheels with the wrong engine.

Only thing helping it move stock is the prices have been slashed to the bone in desperation to clear stock, and getting some fleet deals. All low profit sales.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Highly doubt it. ZB is unloved. Even Holden die hards hate the thing with a passion, cause it just ain't a Commodore, and it drives the wrong wheels with the wrong engine.

Only thing helping it move stock is the prices have been slashed to the bone in desperation to clear stock, and getting some fleet deals. All low profit sales.

So let me get this right, the car is unloved, even though im seeing more and more everyday, but thats because the price has been slashed.
So people will buy an unloved vehicle if the price is right..yeah, nah.

Most of the cars im seeing are higher spec cars, not fleet specials.

Sorry, im basing my 12 month forecast on historical trends, you're basing yours off of an agenda.
I'll wait the 12 months to see i think.

[Windsor220]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

So let me get this right, the car is unloved, even though im seeing more and more everyday, but thats because the price has been slashed.
So people will buy an unloved vehicle if the price is right..yeah, nah.

Most of the cars im seeing are higher spec cars, not fleet specials.

Sorry, im basing my 12 month forecast on historical trends, you're basing yours off of an agenda.
I'll wait the 12 months to see i think.

People bought the Captiva on price so there is a precedent.

[EgoFG]

I wish I had the brain/finger/time power to do Holden vss Ford YTD

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

So let me get this right, the car is unloved, even though im seeing more and more everyday, but thats because the price has been slashed.
So people will buy an unloved vehicle if the price is right..yeah, nah.

Most of the cars im seeing are higher spec cars, not fleet specials.

Sorry, im basing my 12 month forecast on historical trends, you're basing yours off of an agenda.
I'll wait the 12 months to see i think.

Sales numbers tell the story. Selling a fraction of what the VF2 did, and about half of what Holden were expecting it to.

And yes, some people only care about price. Just like you did buying that little thing you got.

[scott_motors]

Saw a ZB taxi yesterday, Silver LT liftback.

I can see a big fire sale at Holden dealers coming on soon.

[DFB FGXR6]

Originally Posted by scott_motors

Saw a ZB taxi yesterday, Silver LT liftback.

I can see a big fire sale at Holden dealers coming on soon.

Its already been fire sale season at Holden dealers for months now.

Brand new Astra sedans and hatches with auto being sold as demo's at $17,990. And that is for an essentially new model at less than run-out model prices. A run-out Cerato is $19,990.

Its so bad for Holden at the moment that it's now no longer funny to be honest. And with GM's track record for swift, non-long term decision making I truly wonder how much more time GM will persist with the Australian market.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Sales numbers tell the story. Selling a fraction of what the VF2 did, and about half of what Holden were expecting it to.

And yes, some people only care about price. Just like you did buying that little thing you got.

Umm, thats my point, sales numbers tell the story, when Ford closed the Rangers numbers dropped significantly, why?
They bounced back 12 months later.
Im suggesting that is because people directed their funds at that period to the last locally produced cars.
If you look at Holden, numbers fell away through early 2017 as people waited to get the last batch of VF's, there was then a steep crash as we waited for ZB to come online.
What im saying is that those who pulled the trigger on a VF in september 2017 when Commodore numbers spiked, arent in the market for a new car yet and probably wont be until this time next year so numbers are still low.
Now i dont expect them to reach VF numbers but i wouldnt be surprised to see them gain traction over the next 12 months to somewhere around 1000 units, its only 300 away now.

As for the price slashing, lets not forget, the bloke who GM left in charge overestimated numbers and they got more than they needed, however, thats been rectified by firstly giving him the **** and more recently by stopping the shipments, that doesnt deal with the stock already on shore so what can they do, theres no good holding on to them for another 12 months as many of them would be late 2017 early 2018 plate builds that have already been sitting around gathering dust, so they slash them, clear the backlog and wait to see what demand they get.
Its not like they need to maintain local manufacturing of a car only sold in domestic markets in any volume as VF was.

Just to clear something up, i didnt buy my little 'thing' because of price alone, i had a budget and wanted to get bang for buck within that cap and when you weigh it up, the Picanto GT is a lot of little 'thing' for the money.
If money was the issue, i'd have bought a Barina or base model Picanto and saved 3k or i could have bought any number of other vehicles in that budget with less features.

[jpd80]

Does anyone know if Holden is still selling Spark and were there any sales last month?
I'd imagine it too is probably going away like Fiesta....

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Thanks Russ.

Its interesting when you look at Ranger sales following Fords manufacturing closure in Australia, numbers dropped considerably over the following months and took 12 months before they rebounded to the same point as pre closure, would it be fair to assume this was due to people buying up the last locally made products and not the imports for those 12 months.

No, I doubt that's the case because when you compare Ranger versus Hilux the 4x4 sales
the peaks and trough of both are very close so maybe something else was going on with
retail and fleet sales......

don't forget resources boom collapsed in 2015/2016 and didn't start to recover until late last year.

[naddis01]

I can't see a massive drop in the Ranger sales figures when Ford Australia manufacturing closed other than the normal monthly variations. All I can see is the general upward trend since the PX was released. Since mid 15 the Ranger and Hilux have had very similar trends.

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by jpd80

No, I doubt that's the case because when you compare Ranger versus Hilux the 4x4 sales
the peaks and trough of both are very close so maybe something else was going on with
retail and fleet sales......

don't forget resources boom collapsed in 2015/2016 and didn't start to recover until late last year.

Yep I call BS, Ranger production volume was increased with more capacity in 2017 too.

And Commodore sales won’t recover unless they ‘give them away’.

Get a Mazda 6, a Camry, a Subaru, or a Skoda instead.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

No, I doubt that's the case because when you compare Ranger versus Hilux the 4x4 sales
the peaks and trough of both are very close so maybe something else was going on with
retail and fleet sales......

don't forget resources boom collapsed in 2015/2016 and didn't start to recover until late last year.

Agreed, its quite possible that other factors were at play,.
There are also other factors at play in the market now, sales are down overall and is particularly in passenger cars yet despite the Commodore selling in reasonable numbers some like to just suggest its unloved and a sales flop because it cant match a locally produced icon of the industry.

Lets wait and see where the dust settles is all im saying.

[Hawkeye84]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Does anyone know if Holden is still selling Spark and were there any sales last month?
I'd imagine it too is probably going away like Fiesta....

Tried to do this the best i could
Holden Spark pretty much died with the introduction of the Kia Picanto in the micro segment.

below are the October VFACT numbers



Holden Spark
Oct 2018: 5 (1%)
Oct 2017: 97 (18.3%)
YTD 2018: 617 (9.1%)
YTD 2017: 934 (16.1%)

Kia Picanto
Oct 2018: 370 (70.6%)
Oct 2017: 250 (47.2%)
YTD 2018: 4550 (61.7%)
YTD 2017: 2749 (47.3%)

Numbers = Volume
(Numbers) = Market Share

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by Hawkeye84

Holden Spark pretty much died with the introduction of the Kia Picanto in the micro segment.

Kia Picanto
Oct 2018: 370 (70.6%)

YTD 2018: 4550 (61.7%)

See, you guys reckon im a Holden fan but i did my bit to kill off one of Holdens products..

[prydey]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Agreed, its quite possible that other factors were at play,.
There are also other factors at play in the market now, sales are down overall and is particularly in passenger cars yet despite the Commodore selling in reasonable numbers some like to just suggest its unloved and a sales flop because it cant match a locally produced icon of the industry.

Lets wait and see where the dust settles is all im saying.

I'm no Holden fan, but I've been seeing them everywhere in the last couple of months.

Taking my blue goggles off, they are a pretty decent piece of kit really.

I wouldn't be surprised to see them gradually find their way into non traditional Commodore buyers homes. Anyone who thinks the engine or driving wheels is a concern for the greater car buying population is blind. People don't care. It's slightly smaller so that will work in its favour as well. Compared to the rest of the mid size segment, apart from Camry, it's doing ok I'd say.

The only stuff up by GM was to over estimate the initial response. This may have been done to get the deal over the line with head office also.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Agreed, its quite possible that other factors were at play,.
There are also other factors at play in the market now, sales are down overall and is particularly in passenger cars yet despite the Commodore selling in reasonable numbers some like to just suggest its unloved and a sales flop because it cant match a locally produced icon of the industry.

Lets wait and see where the dust settles is all im saying.

I suspect that you're trying to construct a scenario where most Commodore buyers
bought the VFII as the final local Holden produced and are not yet ready to buy a
replacement...

That may be so but it could also mean that most have bought their last from Holden,
the fact that all Holden branded vehicle sales have fallen away shows that the once
rainmaker Commodore is just not there anymore. I'd say that this is a permanent shift.

[au2000]

Originally Posted by prydey

I'm no Holden fan, but I've been seeing them everywhere in the last couple of months.

Taking my blue goggles off, they are a pretty decent piece of kit really.

I wouldn't be surprised to see them gradually find their way into non traditional Commodore buyers homes. Anyone who thinks the engine or driving wheels is a concern for the greater car buying population is blind. People don't care. It's slightly smaller so that will work in its favour as well. Compared to the rest of the mid size segment, apart from Camry, it's doing ok I'd say.

The only stuff up by GM was to over estimate the initial response. This may have been done to get the deal over the line with head office also.

It's probably selling better than mondeo too, and yes some will come back with the old profit margin comment but in reality, the sales charts is where everyday consumer sees success, Toyota is no 1? Well they must have great cars so let's go look at what they offer..

Holden's issue ATM is oversupply and longer term is what the hell do they replace it with...

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by au2000

It's probably selling better than mondeo too, and yes some will come back with the old profit margin comment but in reality, the sales charts is where everyday consumer sees success, Toyota is no 1? Well they must have great cars so let's go look at what they offer..

Holden's issue ATM is oversupply and longer term is what the hell do they replace it with...

Toyota has the sales momentum to carry lots of return buyers who don't consider
any competitor's vehicles...it's that simple, Toyota is now the 21st century Holden,
every other brand would kill for a return buyer base like that..

Holden is in a state of grace, it has bought itself time by falling on the sword
of mass discounting, time to work down stock levels and just keep selling in
a tough market where it's not hard to get over looked in a sea of new great
vehicles that just sell better.

in contrast, Ford has three vehicles that make it good profit, Ranger, Mustang and Everest.
Those three accounted for 4400 of Ford's 5200 sales last month, a highly leveraged strategy
that could collapse in an instant but probably won't in the foreseeable future.

That buys Ford time to do better with Focus, Escape, Endura and maybe Ecosport.
Those new vehicles are either just arrived or arriving in the near future
and not a day too soon I might add..

[whales]

I believe the Commodore has to use PULP and at the price of that now it could be turning a few buyers away but I admit I'm not sure on what other cars fuel requirements are but it would turn me off having top pay the premium price for fuel all the time.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

I suspect that you're trying to construct a scenario where most Commodore buyers
bought the VFII as the final local Holden produced and are not yet ready to buy a
replacement...

That may be so but it could also mean that most have bought their last from Holden,
the fact that all Holden branded vehicle sales have fallen away shows that the once
rainmaker Commodore is just not there anymore. I'd say that this is a permanent shift.

Lol, im not trying to construct anything, it makes perfect sense to anyone other than the negative spin doctors...

Sales are down for just about everyone, this idea that Holden needs to maintain its pre closure numbers when everg other manufacture bar Toyotar manages to survive on similar numbers is just plain rubbish.
Theyve made efforts to right a wrong, ditched the idiot who created the problem and the rest remains to be seen.

Thats where its at.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Lol, im not trying to construct anything, it makes perfect sense to anyone other than the negative spin doctors...

Sales are down for just about everyone, this idea that Holden needs to maintain its pre closure numbers when everg other manufacture bar Toyotar manages to survive on similar numbers is just plain rubbish.
Theyve made efforts to right a wrong, ditched the idiot who created the problem and the rest remains to be seen.

Thats where its at.

What makes you think anyone who went out to buy one of the last real Holdens would downgrade to a ZB?

There would be very few who will stay loyal to Commodore. They will largely move on to something else.

Anyone but postive spin doctors can see that

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Anyone but postive spin doctors can see that

Couldnt tell yoy, dont know any, only people who are prepared to wait and see as opposed to a few who think they have all the answers already.

[Big_Daz]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

What makes you think anyone who went out to buy one of the last real Holdens would downgrade to a ZB?

There would be very few who will stay loyal to Commodore. They will largely move on to something else.

Anyone but postive spin doctors can see that

I AM one of those who went out and bought one of the last SSV Redline Commodores and I can tell you, without a shadow of a doubt, that I wont be purchasing a ZB when the time comes for a new daily to lease. Holden wont even get a look in. I will be keeping the Redline either way but when it comes time for something new it will probably be a Mustang GT Auto.

The ZB is actually a nice car (I've driven both an RS with the Turbo 4 pot and a VXR V6 as loan cars at services) but they are not "performance" cars, even in VXR format.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Lol, im not trying to construct anything, it makes perfect sense to anyone other than the negative spin doctors...

I'm sorry, you gave us the impression that Commodore sales numbers are low because
Holden sold as many VFIIs as it could and those buyers are not ready to buy another new
Commodore. If what you say is true, then ZB Commodore sales will begin to rise without
those heavy incentives...

Sales are down for just about everyone, this idea that Holden needs to maintain its pre closure numbers when everg other manufacture bar Toyotar manages to survive on similar numbers is just plain rubbish.

Where did anyone say that?
No one expects the ZB to sell at VFII volumes but, discount/ put aside the V8 buyers and there's
still about 1,000-1,200/month possible sales - is this what you're expecting to happen next year?

Theyve made efforts to right a wrong, ditched the idiot who created the problem and the rest remains to be seen.

Thats where its at.

It's a great start and Buttner is a good fit for Holden, I hope he changes some more things there,
I think they need to finess the model/trim mix and optons a bit - that will help them compete.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

I'm sorry, you gave us the impression that Commodore sales numbers are low because
Holden sold as many VFIIs as it could and those buyers are not ready to buy another new
Commodore. If what you say is true, then ZB Commodore sales will begin to rise without
those heavy incentives...

Its probably a combination of many things, the polarising nature of the car, the negative sentiment, the downturn in sales across the whole segment and as im alluding to, perhaps because many of the faithful pulled the trigger on a new one before VF finished and arent quite ready to go again yet, as i said, time will tell.

Originally Posted by jpd80

Where did anyone say that?
No one expects the ZB to sell at VFII volumes but, discount/ put aside the V8 buyers and there's
still about 1,000-1,200/month possible sales - is this what you're expecting to happen next year?

your mate 4 posts up alludes to it all the time, as though its a sales disaster if it cant return numbers to where they were.

As i said, i think 1000/month is quite possible in the next 12 months, but they'll have to bare the short term pain of shifting the excess stock they already have as 2017 VF2 buyers arent going to be interested in late 2017 early 2018 plated ZB's that have been sitting around since they bought their VF.

Originally Posted by jpd80

It's a great start and Buttner is a good fit for Holden, I hope he changes some more things there,
I think they need to finess the model/trim mix and optons a bit - that will help them compete.

Its certainly something that they can look at, and again, being an entirely new product it was always going to be a trial and error situation as what they have to offer now is very different to what the traditional Commodore buyer is familiar with.
Right now though its a case of clear the decks and reset which they are doing.
Lets not forget, whats happened to Australian auto manufacturing is unprecedented on such a scale in such a short time and even Toyota are struggling to claw back numbers of their former locally made offering, it was never going to be an easy task, however, certain people think it should have just happened and because it hasnt its a complete failure and they might as well close up shop.
What makes me laugh though is that Ford chose a different path, abandoning the segments it built locally in, atleast as far as large passenger cars is concerned, and have avoided the same issues that Holden and Toyota are dealing with now, however, Ford are facing their own issues although that seems to be getting swept under the carpet with the belief that its because of a model change with its top sellers, thats something else we'll keep a close eye on over the next few months.

[jpd80]

This is the new Ford Focus that will be arriving in the next month or so.
The proportions are a lot different to the current car and more like the Mazda 3.



We also have Endura and a new Escape is arriving next year.