The aussie dollar against the US

[mik]

i used to cart freight off the wharves some years ago, and to me it was obvious we are drowning in imports and have been for decades,
it`s an absolute travesty that we actually import stuff like (fresh )fruit and vegetables(often inferior) from over sea`s rather than buy it from our own farmers , as for the other stuff you can`t get because it`s not manufactured in Australia, as things stand with the flood of cheap imports you never will,

because with a country that has a high cost of living with a large population of people on the lower wage they will usually buy the cheaper stuff.....quite often the imports.

[gtfpv]

Originally Posted by mik

i used to cart freight off the wharves some years ago, and to me it was obvious we are drowning in imports and have been for decades,
it`s an absolute travesty that we actually import stuff like (fresh )fruit and vegetables(often inferior) from over sea`s rather than buy it from our own farmers , as for the other stuff you can`t get because it`s not manufactured in Australia, as things stand with the flood of cheap imports you never will,

because with a country that has a high cost of living with a large population of people on the lower wage they will usually buy the cheaper stuff.....quite often the imports.

well the media , and all of the public calling wharfies bludgers for striking when all of these things 1st occured certainly didn't prevent it from happening as it does today , only empty containers go back overseas to be refilled . ( sheeple )

[mik]

yes i remember the wharfy`s getting the shaft, a lot of it was a beat up, don`t get me wrong there where some blokes taking advantage of the system like any job, but imo there would be far less crooked wharfy`s than pollies, back on topic i`d love to see the our dollar come down for an extended period.

[naddis01]

Something weird is happening. I agree with Flappist.

We are hoping that the dollar goes below $0.80 or even better down to closer to $0.50. Our produce might actually be worth something again.

[Stazza_Brendan]

Originally Posted by flappist

I would like to see the $AU at 50c US and 0.5 Euro for a year or two.

We NEED the export income and tourism otherwise we will end up with 3 types of people, mine workers, public vegetables and unemployed and when the mining is finished so are the first two......

Wont happen, Theres hundreds of years worth of resources in the ground. Only the Government can stuff that up by killing mining, But its too big of a cash cow to stop the industry.

[flappist]

Originally Posted by Stazza_Brendan

Wont happen, Theres hundreds of years worth of resources in the ground. Only the Government can stuff that up by killing mining, But its too big of a cash cow to stop the industry.

Really?

So China has a woopsie and stops buying.......like Japan did not long ago.

What happens then?

[sgt_doofey]

Originally Posted by naddis01

Something weird is happening. I agree with Flappist

It's a weird feeling isn't it. Do you feel dirty too?

[tranquilized]

Originally Posted by flappist

Why is it wherever many of you think of business you think Harvey Norman or Petrol Companies?

Go for a drive tomorrow down the main street of where ever you live and look at all the cafes, little shops, restaurants, mechanics, panel beaters, fruit shops, pubs, petrol stations, motels, computer shops etc etc etc.

This is where MOST people are employed and the vast majority have only a few maybe up to 20 people working there.

These are the ones that are suffering especially those that are not in a mining area or a public servant area.

How many of your friends or relatives work for SME?

If we don't export goods and import money we will all eventually end up like Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy or Ireland.

P.S. Moved thread to Bar

I used Harvey Norman as an example because he has been vocal in the media recently on this issue, and I had been in the store recently also.

Most of the small business examples you've used as examples are not majorly affected by the aussie dollar regardless of its value. For most of the service business the AUD$ is irrelevant unless they're in a touristy area. Granted, if the aussie is low not as many people travel overseas and more overseas people travel to here, but really, how much difference will that make to the average suburban milk bar, mechanic, or TAB pub? SFA

My own business isn't affected majorly by the AUD$. I mentioned the music accessories profit margin - thats only a small % of my revenue. I made just as much money when the aussie was at US$0.60.

[flappist]

Originally Posted by tranquilized

I used Harvey Norman as an example because he has been vocal in the media recently on this issue, and I had been in the store recently also.

Most of the small business examples you've used as examples are not majorly affected by the aussie dollar regardless of its value. For most of the service business the AUD$ is irrelevant unless they're in a touristy area. Granted, if the aussie is low not as many people travel overseas and more overseas people travel to here, but really, how much difference will that make to the average suburban milk bar, mechanic, or TAB pub? SFA

My own business isn't affected majorly by the AUD$. I mentioned the music accessories profit margin - thats only a small % of my revenue. I made just as much money when the aussie was at US$0.60.

Really?

Come up here and see how many of the businesses I have mentioned have shut down SPECIFICALLY because of the high dollar.

Go for a wander to Cairns, Whitsunday, Fraser or Coral coast, the Goldy or Sunny Coast and then tell me that there is not a problem.

How much difference does it make? Are you for real?

What percentage of income to Australia was from tourism 5 years ago compared to recently........

[tranquilized]

Originally Posted by flappist

Really?

Come up here and see how many of the businesses I have mentioned have shut down SPECIFICALLY because of the high dollar.

Go for a wander to Cairns, Whitsunday, Fraser or Coral coast, the Goldy or Sunny Coast and then tell me that there is not a problem.

How much difference does it make? Are you for real?

What percentage of income to Australia was from tourism 5 years ago compared to recently........

Our standpoints are just a reflection of where we live. Trust me, there aint any small businesses in the service industry in the outer burbs or Melbourne that notice any difference in tourist numbers. But those areas you mentioned, I totally understand how that would be different.

[gtfpv]

heaps of small business is closing down , the sad thing is , heaps of big business is going bankrupt and closing also . i dont know why big businesses like transport companies and ford suppliers etc , are going out of business but its a daily occurance in sydney papers now .

[burkie_21]

so its now or never for a long time to buy an engine from the states!!

[SIMBAD]

I feel that 80c is the happy medium. Not too weak, not to strong. At around that mark I feel that employment was pretty good and we were not having too much trouble at all exporting.
But now.. Around my area, places like carterholt Harvey are struggling and I've heard that the hyne timbermill are looking at shutting down and the Visy paper mill are doing everything they can to reduce costs and looking at cutting wages etc or stopping one of the two paper machines to try and save money from the impact of not exporting nowa days because of the current Aussie dollar.

[HLC]

I got stung an extra $100 on the new track bike I just ordered between getting the quote at $1AU = $1.03US but a week later when I paid, $1AU = $0.97US... Bummer. Would have bought local if I could... But someone find me an importer of Bridgestone NJS track frames that won't add a massive %age on top???

[Crazy Dazz]

It is now generally accepted that the AUD is a commodity based currency. Essentially the value rises and falls with demand for our commodities. (The reasons for this are many and varied, and 20 years ago people suggesting this were seen as cranks, but it is now widely accepted.)
UNANTICIPATED drops in interest rates will cause little hiccups, as will any little hiccups in the commodity markets. As long as demand remains high for our commodities, so will our currency. I would expect it to make back ground and even continue to rise at a very slow rate for the time being.
However when the boom ends, expect it to slide, possibly rather quickly, and in another full on recession back into the 50’s.

Don’t forget that whilst we up against the USD, we’re also at record levels against the Euro & GBP. If the Germans’ latest attempt to rule Europe ends as successfully as the last few we’ll see either the Euro (or the reinstated currencies) take a hammering, although that may actually push up the USD.

[Jason[98.EL]]

Originally Posted by SIMBAD

I feel that 80c is the happy medium. Not too weak, not to strong. At around that mark I feel that employment was pretty good and we were not having too much trouble at all exporting.
But now.. Around my area, places like carterholt Harvey are struggling and I've heard that the hyne timbermill are looking at shutting down and the Visy paper mill are doing everything they can to reduce costs and looking at cutting wages etc or stopping one of the two paper machines to try and save money from the impact of not exporting nowa days because of the current Aussie dollar.

Visy are one of our customers and they have slowed down on their orders big time we used to do 5 or 6 felts for their paper machines a month and now it is only 2-4 every few months

Jason

[SIMBAD]

Originally Posted by Jason[98.EL]

Visy are one of our customers and they have slowed down on their orders big time we used to do 5 or 6 felts for their paper machines a month and now it is only 2-4 every few months

Jason

Yeah things at work now are changing big time. Over 50% of the workers including me have now joined the union as around 70% of us have our contracts expire and due for a new one.
The catch is now that Visy are looking to cut wages, reduce our holiday hours, change the rate of hour deductions with us shift workers with sick leave and holidays also. Yearly pay rises that don't match the yearly increases of the CPI etc.
Yes they are struggling a little but some of the cost saving methods they are looking at is just rediculous.
The next few months are going to be interesting Eitherway.

Ps. I noticed that we dont seem to be doing as many felt changes lately.
Also ive seen what happens to a brand new felt when someone looses an Allen key from their top pocket! Turns out the papermachine and felt doesn't agree with Allen keys!

[cs123]

Originally Posted by SIMBAD

Yeah things at work now are changing big time. Over 50% of the workers including me have now joined the union as around 70% of us have our contracts expire and due for a new one.
The catch is now that Visy are looking to cut wages, reduce our holiday hours, change the rate of hour deductions with us shift workers with sick leave and holidays also. Yearly pay rises that don't match the yearly increases of the CPI etc.

Interesting. Go back 5 or so years and people were very anti union. Opinion back then was that they didn't need a union and could quite easily negotiate a better outcome directly with the employer.

It's good that you see the value of membership. I hope you repay their efforts in the good times.

[flappist]

Originally Posted by cs123

Interesting. Go back 5 or so years and people were very anti union. Opinion back then was that they didn't need a union and could quite easily negotiate a better outcome directly with the employer.

It's good that you see the value of membership. I hope you repay their efforts in the good times.

Of course if union action leads to everyone losing their jobs the membership may not be so valuable.

[MAD]

If cafes are struggling, how is having less expendable income due to buying higher priced Australian made items going to help them?

[Jason[98.EL]]

Originally Posted by SIMBAD

Yeah things at work now are changing big time. Over 50% of the workers including me have now joined the union as around 70% of us have our contracts expire and due for a new one.
The catch is now that Visy are looking to cut wages, reduce our holiday hours, change the rate of hour deductions with us shift workers with sick leave and holidays also. Yearly pay rises that don't match the yearly increases of the CPI etc.
Yes they are struggling a little but some of the cost saving methods they are looking at is just rediculous.
The next few months are going to be interesting Eitherway.

Ps. I noticed that we dont seem to be doing as many felt changes lately.
Also ive seen what happens to a brand new felt when someone looses an Allen key from their top pocket! Turns out the papermachine and felt doesn't agree with Allen keys!

you would prob know the company i work for then as we are the only people that supply you guys whether it be from us here Geelong or from one of our other factories o.s

I know that you guys requested that we dont make your felts for a bit as they were looking dirty and we had no control the bases we received

we now weave our own and they are 1000 times better than what we had when we reopened ( our company closed for 2 yrs due to the gfc and union demands ) and reopened 2 yrs ago to help out world production

would like to see your plant one day

Jason

[jpd80]

Thinking Exports for a moment,
Most if not all export contracts are negotiated in US dollars, so a lower dollar means local suppliers get more Aussie dollars per sale in US dollars.
Nett result, we all benefit in more business activity, employment and taxes so it's in all our interests to make this happen.

"IMPORTS"
Conversely, the price of oil is set externally in US dollars, be that West Texas Index or OPEC/TAPIS index
so a weaker dollar means our fuel prices go up. every time that happens, the cost of all transport and goods rises.
In fact, a weaker dollar affects every imported good so the nett result is upward pressure on everything you touch
including wages and taxes.

Question is whether the good news on exports outweighs the bad news on domestic price increases.

[mostly_broncos]

When I first started selling Ford parts on ebay the australian dollar was much lower.

I think it was around .75 which made my items look expensive I think but they still sold . I was excited to see your dollar go up because I felt it would mean my sales would increase if the parts looked more affordable. This did not happen unfortunately because the cost of shipping massively increased when our post office took surface mail away completely

Now the ebay geniuses have added a final value fee on shipping which I either have to pass on to the buyer or pay out of pocket. A fact which stung me on a shifter cable I sold a month ago to england. The buyer asked if I could send it quick so I quoted him a price of 48$ for shipping which is the cost of our post offices medium flat rate priority box world wide . The price of the cable was 23$ so the total 71$ for a shifter cable which is so ridiculous I assumed he would not buy it.

The next day he bought it and I mailed it out and thought nothing about it until I got my ebay invoice and did the math. Ebay had charged me 5.76 in final value fees on the shipping .

I had to add a flat 7$ fee to my international just to cover the ebay shipping final value fees.


Anyway to make a long story short and relate all that to the subject.

In 2007 your dollar was .75 and we had a cheap but slow shipping to Australia and lower ebay fees also

so a $200 USD item say an intake manifold would cost about $320 AUD shipped to you .

Now in 2012 with the AUD at .98 the same exact intake shipped priority international by weight with new ebay fees is $360 AUD shipped as near as I can figure.

If your dollar drops to .75 again it would be $470 AUD shipped to you

If you need Ford parts shipped from the states keep your dollar strong or find another place to get parts.

Notice that my profit dropped your price went up , my post office and yours got more money as did ebay.

Thankfully your dollar will never go to .75 again because our central bank is inflating our dollar as fast as it can.

[cs123]

Originally Posted by flappist

Of course if union action leads to everyone losing their jobs the membership may not be so valuable.

It would be a stupid union that would do this. I know you can dig up examples but as a general rule unions are not anti-business.

[Chopped]

Originally Posted by cs123

..... unions are not anti-business.

Exactly, Craig Thomson made sure the HSU supported the local Brothel.

[gtfpv]

Originally Posted by Chopped

Exactly, Craig Thomson made sure the HSU supported the local Brothel.

and so does every blow joe , whats your point , there a brothel on every corner thriving in business , whats your point , do you think its a rare event ?

[trippytaka]

We need the Aussie dollar back at $0.80 region. It's where it belongs and it's what is good for our economy.

In the next 12 months it looks like it will continue to flucutate and eventually fall as investors move to safe havens during the s***storm that has been unravelling for the last few years in europe.

Couple that will the slow down in China that is happening (all data is pointing to a nice slow down of growth there) and our resource stocks are going to continue to trade much lower than they were over the last few years. Commodities are already trading lower, and with reduced demand will continue to do so.

This also with the news that's been filtering out that the top mining companies don't see India as picking up the slack from a slowing China anymore and suddenly the Golden goose is losing a bit of its lustre to investors.

At the end of the day, Australia is a speculative currency. Right now, and over the next few years I would say investors will look to be tied up in safe havens.

[trippytaka]

Originally Posted by cs123

Interesting. Go back 5 or so years and people were very anti union. Opinion back then was that they didn't need a union and could quite easily negotiate a better outcome directly with the employer.

It's good that you see the value of membership. I hope you repay their efforts in the good times.

Far out! I am a part of a de-unionised industry. During the 70s and 80s white collar unions were pretty much abandoned - the path to wealth was paved by being able to negotiate your own pay, based on performance.

This worked really well, right up until about the turn of the century. Media (my industry) stopped giving people pay rises because profits started to fall. Today, if you go for a job straight out of uni as a journo - let's say working for Street Fords, you'll earn about 30k. 10 hour days, working weekends for no over time, after three years of study and a uni degree.

I know editors of major magazines that are earning uner 80k. Now, that's a 12 hour a day 6/7 days a week job! And highly skilled!

PR is the same, account managers get around 80k - that's 3 years experience minimum, plusa uni degree. Account directors get about 120k, that's 5 years experience and a uni degree. Both are 10-12 hour days, 6/7 days a week and no overtime etc.

The reason i point all this out is that TWU workers, for instance, have enjoyed a lot of support. Their workplaces are safer, which is great. Their wages continue to grow - generally above the line of inflation etc.

I am not complaining at all. Just pointing out the differences.

If I were to comment at all I would say Australia is overpriced and overpaid. Our house market was out of control, and way over valued - people need more money for living. Wages are too high, we're uncompetitive in manufacturing and even service industries like web development etc. Our Aussie dollar is too high - makes us too expensive for overseas.

The fix? wage growth should slow. Aussie dollar returns to 80c region. House proces either continue their falls to natural levels or stay where they are for 20 years.

Unfortunately, it looks like many of the reputable experts are tipping a Japanese style grind down for us. Drawn out over two decade.

[Keepleft]

Originally Posted by mostly_broncos

Thankfully your dollar will never go to .75 again because our central bank is inflating our dollar as fast as it can.

Vary true, the US Feds quantitative easing (printing of money).

Despite the crap on mainstream media of late re 'improvement' in US jobs and finance, all is not well at all, stateside.

A lot of nasty stuff in the US - but of course throughout the world too, if Greece drops out of the Euro, it'll be back to the Drachma possibly via a temporary 'emergency currency' first (A good Greek would hold a stash of silver and gold). Of course, that currency would devalue pretty smartly and it would take months for treasury to catch-up with the Greek Euro replacement.

Overnight, the Greek Euro currency would be worthless once notification of a return to the drachma is made.

We have Spain, Ireland, Italy and even France under pressure, we have a Chinee housing bubble (empty cities). I feel sorry for the German taxpayer, and Brits, for having to fund so many bailouts. I'll add GB should NOT have entered into this union as sovereignity in ALL national things MUST remain at home; am so delighted they didn't adopt the Euro, I'll bet they are too!

The Greek situation makes interesting reading, its only just starting really, and a US downfall, if it eventuates and it may well do so if it loses reserve currency status, would be on a larger - harder scale than the Greek example playing-out now.

Greeks voting for a communist/leftist government aint going to help things. Seems a majority of Greek coppers voted Golden Dawn (Nazi party). UK European parliament Independece Party chap Nigel Farage did warn them of this likelihood.
http://www.rt.com/news/greek-police-vote-nazis-350/

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...ork-camps.html

Nigel:-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qbqumK6qUTQ

[Chopped]

Originally Posted by gtfpv

and so does every blow joe , whats your point , there a brothel on every corner thriving in business , whats your point , do you think its a rare event ?

Most blokes pay for it out of their hard earned....