Doctors and Very Old Drivers

[aussiblue]

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-37292951

Older drivers no more dangerous, accident data study says
New research from Swansea University challenges the idea that older people are dangerous drivers.

Analysis of data on vehicle accidents showed that drivers aged 70 are involved in 3-4 times fewer accidents than 17-21 year old men.

[aussiblue]

This debate comes up here every few years and it tires me to dig out the research again and again to show that while older drivers are more likely to die in or after a road accident they are less likely to be involved in accidents or cause accidents compared to the 17-26 year old cohort. Nothing has substantially changed so I am not going to bother.

Go back to these threads:

https://fordforums.com.au/showthread.php?t=11424993
https://fordforums.com.au/showthread.php?t=81308

[zilo]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

You've never seen the news stories of old people hitting the accelerator and not the brake? Happens quite often.

Usually low speed collisions though...

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by aussiblue

This debate comes up here every few years and it tires me to dig out the research again and again to show that while older drivers are more likely to die in or after a road accident they are less likely to be involved in accidents or cause accidents compared to the 17-26 year old cohort. Nothing has substantially changed so I am not going to bother.

Go back to these threads:

https://fordforums.com.au/showthread.php?t=11424993
https://fordforums.com.au/showthread.php?t=81308

Is it really surprising that your 'warrior class' of human without the fully developed frontal lobe complete with high testosterone is involved in more car accidents?

What's the comparison to average kilometers driven between 17-26 and 70+ age groups and accidents?

[b0son]

Originally Posted by aussiblue

This debate comes up here every few years and it tires me to dig out the research again and again

Your research is superficial at best. Don't bother.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by zilo

Usually low speed collisions though...

Not far from me, the guy ran over his own wife, killing her...

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by aussiblue

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-37292951

Cause a lot of them rarely drive.

I'd guarantee the 17-21 yr olds would drive a hell of a lot further than the oldies do.

But yeah, jacked up kids with fresh licences are sheet drivers. They have very little experience, mostly drive dung heaps and have no fear.

Now compare the oldies to people in the 25-40 bracket.

[GT450]

Spoken by someone who truly has no idea what oldies do. I clock up 30kms plus every year and have many friends of my age that do the same. It's really hard for some people to realise that experience and self awareness really do count, unlike when younger and it mattered little and yes I was young once too , I drove GTs at over 100mph on certain roads when derestriction signs (anyone remember them ) meant you could do that as long as you weren't being an idiot. As I said before this thread usually attracts younger members of the forum who think being 60+ means you should be off to the nursing home and not seen again, pity I probably wont be around to read your thoughts then ...... if you make it.

[aussiblue]

Your research is superficial at best. Don't bother.

It's not mine actually most of it in an Australian context is from Monash University e.g. just for starters:

https://www.monash.edu/muarc/archive...eports/atsb143

It has been widely confirmed that young drivers have a greater risk than other drivers of being involved in a traffic crash. The elevated crash risk of young drivers results not from greater distances driven (and thus greater exposure to risk) than other age groups, but from greater risk per unit exposure. A variety of factors may contribute to this high risk level, the most obvious of which is lack of driving experience, since driving skill, like most other skills, is probably acquired largely through practice. Research in Victoria has shown that the rate of casualty crash involvement per distance driven decreases steadily with increasing driving experience. However, experience is not the only correlate of age which may influence crash risk; other factors may be responsible, at least in part, for the decrease in crash rates with increasing age and experience. For example, it has been argued that young people around minimum licensing age are at a stage of life where they reject parental values, strive for independence, experiment with roles and become heavily influenced by their peer group and its values. Thus young people may be motivated to drive fast or take other risks in order to test their own abilities, to demonstrate independence from authority or to impress their peers.

Although driver age and experience are highly correlated, it has been seen as important to determine which is the better predictor of crash risk. The consequences for countermeasure design could be profound. A finding in favour of experience would strongly suggest that the young driver problem is primarily a result of skill deficits, which are gradually overcome with increasing experience of driving. In this case, further research and countermeasure development should concentrate on accelerating the development of those skills which are critical to safe driving. On the other hand, if age is the main predictor of crash risk, countermeasures should focus on age-related motivational and lifestyle factors.

https://www.monash.edu/muarc/archive...ports/muarc049

This short report has presented an analysis of risk of crash involvement estimates for 1988 in Metropolitan Melbourne. By necessity, the analysis was age based, in contrast to the original work which was primarily experience based. It was noted that factors other than the ambient level may have affected the incidence of reported crashes, perhaps reducing the direct comparability of the two sets of results. Nevertheless, the same general patterns of results have been obtained, namely the increased risk of crash involvement for younger drivers, the approximate equivalence of risk as a function of driver gender and the elevated risk of night-time driving, particularly after midnight, and for 19 year old drivers.

https://www.monash.edu/news/articles...vers-care-less

Monash University Accident Research Centre (MUARC) researcher, Dr Ashleigh Filtness, found that younger male drivers are more susceptible to the effects of sleep restriction than older male drivers.

https://www.monash.edu/news/opinions...ad-is-the-test

Put simply, mandatory testing of older drivers isn’t cost effective and is discriminatory. It may seem easy to argue that older people are more likely to have crashes and should, therefore, get off the road. Surely then we would ban all 17 year old males from driving until they are 25?

Not only is there no evidence to support mandatory testing of older drivers there also needs to be recognition that there are real disadvantages associated with age based mandatory assessment. In 2050 almost one in four people will be over 65 and one in ten will be over 80. They will be working, going to the gym, spending money in cafes and restaurants, going to the movies and doing everything they can to stay mobile and active. Driving is key to that and we need to work out ways to help them stay on the road and to drive safely. To do anything else is simply discriminatory and uneconomical.

https://www.monash.edu/news/opinions...ime-for-action

The death of any Australian on our roads is tragic and the recent spate of young driver deaths on our roads highlights the tragedy, ten-fold. Unfortunately, the death of young Victorian drivers over the past month reflects the over-representation of young drivers in our national road fatality and injury statistics.

More than a quarter of all fatal road injuries and hospitalisations in Australia are in the age group 17 to 25 years despite this group comprising only 15 per cent of licensed drivers. Despite comprehensive Graduated Licensing Systems introduced throughout Australia being initially successful, road fatalities in this age group have remained relatively constant over the past decade, pointing to the urgent need to enhance these systems.

Newly licensed or novice drivers are at increased risk of crashing, especially in the first months of provisional licensing. Early research in Western Australia found 14 per cent of young drivers crashed within the first 12 months of driving and that the risk remains whether the drivers are licensed at 16 years of age (as in many states of the United States) or at age 17 or 18 years as in Australia. The disproportionately high number of newly licensed drivers in the crash statistics has been attributed to factors such as inexperience, an inability to identify hazards, night-time driving, carrying same-age or peer passengers and risky driving behaviors such as speeding.

https://www.monash.edu/news/opinions...cences-revoked

[In regards to older people and those with dementia] "There is no randomised evidence to indicate whether neuropsychological, on-road or other assessment of driving ability can help support safe drivers remain mobile, or to reduce crashes."

Similar peer reviewed Research from other highly regarded institutions in the UK, North America (e.g. https://www.nhtsa.gov/research) Europe and even the World Health Organisation come to the same conclusions in terms of younger male drivers being the high risk of causing accidents groups and older drivers being much less likely to cause road accidents but much more likely to die if involved in one.

[FTE217]

Cheeez, such opposing comments.....
I find it quite unfair towards older/mature drivers - case in point my father right now of 88yrs still driving.
Like some other posts, he has a top driving record, now he has to have those extra tests to retain his license and only yearly from here on.
Sure his reflex's won't be as mine but his normal general driving ability is still a "pass" as the tests confirm.
Isn't that just as any driver given a license today be it 20yrs young to 60yrs for eg.
You see hopeless drivers everyday on the road 40-50-60yrs younger than my ol bloke breaking rules, wondering lanes, not using blinkers, going 40klm in 60 zones and same goes on freeways, idiots doing 20k's less than the limit that can cause so much carnage because countless people don't keep their good eyes on the road and or not pay attention BUT mature drivers like my father or those over 60 or 70 shouldn't be on the road.
Here in Sydney just recently we've had 2 idiot drivers in their 40's it looked like push wrong pedal flying in and through shop fronts - seems its not just the elderly making those fundamental errors.
Seriously turn it up, IF an ol bloke or lady still pass's their tests they have every right to drive if they so wish to.
As for the indendence mention, very much agree, Mum suffered from macular degenration, she loved having her independence but obviously had to hand her license in, was a huge adjustment and worse for the ol bloke, has had to be her personal uber since visiting shopping malls etc, a huge penalty to pay when you've avoided that all your married life lol......

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by GT450

Spoken by someone who truly has no idea what oldies do. I clock up 30kms plus every year and have many friends of my age that do the same. It's really hard for some people to realise that experience and self awareness really do count, unlike when younger and it mattered little and yes I was young once too , I drove GTs at over 100mph on certain roads when derestriction signs (anyone remember them ) meant you could do that as long as you weren't being an idiot. As I said before this thread usually attracts younger members of the forum who think being 60+ means you should be off to the nursing home and not seen again, pity I probably wont be around to read your thoughts then ...... if you make it.

So just because you do, then they all do then. Righty oh

And I never mentioned 60+. I said 90+ at the start. Don't shift the goal posts.

[aussiblue]

This is probably a fair and balanced summary: https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...01457518300873

Motor vehicle collisions cause more than 1.2 million deaths worldwide and an even greater number of non-fatal injuries each year (World Health Organization, 2015), negatively affecting the health and wellbeing of injury survivors and their families (Donaldson et al., 2009). To improve road safety, insight is needed into preventable causes of road accidents. Police reports of road accidents are the main source of data used for informing research and policy on the causes of road accidents. Concerns have been raised by academics and road safety authorities over the reliability of police-reported contributing factor data (DfT, 2014a), but there has been little or no attempt to investigate this issue empirically. This article aims to contribute to filling this gap by investigating the main causes of road accidents reported in accident records and comparing them with expert views of police officers and lay views of the driving public.

The causes of motor vehicle collisions are complex, but broadly depend on characteristics of drivers. Skill level (McGwin & Brown, 1999), inexperience (McCartt et al., 2003), and risk taking behaviors (Rolison et al., 2014) have been implicated in the collisions of young drivers compared to drivers in other age ranges. Investigations of vehicle collision records have also implicated excessive speed (Gonzales et al., 2005; Lam, 2003), driving recklessly (Lam, 2003), and traffic violations (Gonzales et al., 2005) as well as drugs and alcohol (Bingham et al., 2008) in the collisions of young drivers. For example, Braitman et al. (2008) interviewed 16-year-old novice drivers who had been involved in a collision within eight months of receiving their driver license. Excessive speed, loss of control, and failure to detect another vehicle or traffic control were reported by the teenagers as primary causes of their collisions (Braitman et al., 2008). Collectively, these findings support the role of inexperience, lack of skill, and risk taking behaviors in young driver collisions. Further, these contributing factors appear to be influenced by driver gender. Young male drivers are more likely than young females to be involved in collisions due to risk taking, such as excessive speeding and impairment by drugs and alcohol (Begg & Langley, 2004; Clarke et al., 2006; Curry et al., 2012).

In contrast with young drivers, the collisions of older drivers more often involve driver error at intersections and when making turns (Hakamies-Blomqvist, 1993; Langford & Koppel, 2006). McGwin and Brown (1999) found that failure to yield right of way, failure to comply with signs and signals, failure to see objects, and improper turns and lane changes were commonly reported in road accident records for collisions of older drivers. Older driver errors may in part result from age-related decline in visual, cognitive, and mobility functioning in older age (Hu et al., 1993; Janke, 1991). A wealth of research has identified poor performance on measures of visual functioning and cognitive abilities as risk factors for older driver involvement in road traffic collisions (Ball et al., 2010; Ball et al., 2006; Owsley et al., 1991; Owsley et al., 1998). Medical conditions, such as heart disease and stroke, are further associated with increased risk of collision among older drivers (McGwin et al., 2000; Anstey et al., 2005). Finally, psychoactive medications, commonly used by older drivers, can hamper their driving ability, and place them at increased risk of crash involvement (Hemmelgarn et al., 1997; Meuleners et al., 2011; Ray et al., 1992).

In sum, inexperience and risk taking behaviors, including excessive speed and drug and alcohol use, have been associated with the collisions of young drivers. Conversely, as age advances, increased prevalence of visual and cognitive impairments as well as medication use have been associated with the collisions of older drivers.

[Ben73]

Originally Posted by aussiblue

It's not mine actually most of it in an Australian context is from Monash University e.g. just for starters:

https://www.monash.edu/muarc/archive...eports/atsb143



https://www.monash.edu/muarc/archive...ports/muarc049



https://www.monash.edu/news/articles...vers-care-less



https://www.monash.edu/news/opinions...ad-is-the-test



https://www.monash.edu/news/opinions...ime-for-action



https://www.monash.edu/news/opinions...cences-revoked



Similar peer reviewed Research from other highly regarded institutions in the UK, North America (e.g. https://www.nhtsa.gov/research) Europe and even the World Health Organisation come to the same conclusions in terms of younger male drivers being the high risk of causing accidents groups and older drivers being much less likely to cause road accidents but much more likely to die if involved in one.

5 links and not a single one related to this thread.

I haven’t seen a single post in this thread saying that young drivers are the best. Unless I missed that post?

[aussiblue]

5 links and not a single one related to this thread.

Hmm; so at least one younger driver also has a significant literacy issue. How's this not related:https://www.monash.edu/news/opinions...cences-revoked

Quote:
[In regards to older people and those with dementia] "There is no randomised evidence to indicate whether neuropsychological, on-road or other assessment of driving ability can help support safe drivers remain mobile, or to reduce crashes."

Quote:
Put simply, mandatory testing of older drivers isn’t cost effective and is discriminatory. It may seem easy to argue that older people are more likely to have crashes and should, therefore, get off the road. Surely then we would ban all 17 year old males from driving until they are 25?

Not only is there no evidence to support mandatory testing of older drivers there also needs to be recognition that there are real disadvantages associated with age based mandatory assessment. In 2050 almost one in four people will be over 65 and one in ten will be over 80. They will be working, going to the gym, spending money in cafes and restaurants, going to the movies and doing everything they can to stay mobile and active. Driving is key to that and we need to work out ways to help them stay on the road and to drive safely. To do anything else is simply discriminatory and uneconomical.

It also follows that if you are arguing older drivers are more dangerous you are suggesting younger ones are less so.

[aussiblue]

Also did you read the full PDF of https://www.monash.edu/muarc/archive...ports/muarc049 "Risk of Driver Crash Involvement as a Function of Driver Age" or even just look at the charts and tables in that report? And yes I concede it's not the most recent research and as more people are living and driving longer there is more concern for, and interest in, the older driver segment.

[aussiblue]

A NZ Study https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...86111214601539 :

Older drivers are frequently viewed as overly represented in crashes, particularly when crash involvement per distance travelled is considered. This perception has led to a call for tighter licensing conditions for older drivers, a policy which inevitably results in mobility restrictions for at least some drivers. However there is a growing body of research evidence which shows that as a group, older drivers represent no greater road risk than drivers from other age groups once different levels of driving activity are taken into account. This paper has examined aspects of older drivers' fitness to drive based on survey data and off-road and on-road driving performance from a sample of 905 New Zealand older drivers. The results show that policies which target all older drivers and lead to licensing and mobility restrictions cannot be justified from a safety basis.

Nonetheless, I also concede that if you read the full report it does also conclude:

The sample of New Zealand older drivers showed strong evidence that drivers who travelled low mileages were liable to have more crashes per distance driven than drivers with higher mileages. Older drivers travelling 20km or less per week had around ten times the per-distance crash rate of drivers travelling 200km or more per week. The analyses presented in this paper also showed that low mileage drivers were more likely to report a reduction in their driving performance and to report a range of health and medical conditions. Further, they also performed less well on two of the three off-road fitness to drive screening tests and the NZDORT on-road driving test (an external measure of driving skills).

..so perhaps we should just encourage this older group to drive more to keep their skills up :-)
E

[Cav]

Originally Posted by Ben73

5 links and not a single one related to this thread.

I haven’t seen a single post in this thread saying that young drivers are the best. Unless I missed that post?

Young drivers are the best at risk-taking behaviour


It is true what they say, youth is wasted on the young.

[Cav]

Originally Posted by b0son

Not far from me, the guy ran over his own wife, killing her...

so he no longer enjoys a life sentence with her?

[MercuryT]

On way home tonight I nearly t-boned a car who decided to turn right at the round a bout......from the left lane which is straight only. (I was in right lane which can go straight and forward.....I was going forward)

VERY close shave but luckily all fine outside screaming tyres and stuff in the back, ending up scattered in the front. Good brakes helped massively.

Worst part is I caught him and pulled him over. Was completely oblivious to what he did and looked about 80.

Madness.

[LG17]

Originally Posted by MercuryT

On way home tonight I nearly t-boned a car who decided to turn right at the round a bout......from the left lane which is straight only. (I was in right lane which can go straight and forward.....I was going forward)

VERY close shave but luckily all fine outside screaming tyres and stuff in the back, ending up scattered in the front. Good brakes helped massively.

Worst part is I caught him and pulled him over. Was completely oblivious to what he did and looked about 80.

Madness.

And 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 year olds do exactly the same thing...

[zilo]

Originally Posted by MercuryT

On way home tonight I nearly t-boned a car who decided to turn right at the round a bout......from the left lane which is straight only. (I was in right lane which can go straight and forward.....I was going forward)

.

I think that by law you had to give way to him anyway.

Vic roads....

"The most important thing to remember is when you’re entering a roundabout, you must give way to any vehicle already in the roundabout and any tram that is entering or approaching the roundabout.

Which you did....and lived to tell the tale.

[MercuryT]

Originally Posted by zilo

I think that by law you had to give way to him anyway.

Vic roads....

"The most important thing to remember is when you’re entering a roundabout, you must give way to any vehicle already in the roundabout and any tram that is entering or approaching the roundabout.

Which you did....and lived to tell the tale.

Nah it's clear left lane goes straight. It's impossible to go right from that position mate.

Complete stupidity to cut across a straight lane to go right when in left lane........

[MercuryT]

Originally Posted by LG17

And 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 year olds do exactly the same thing...

Nah don't agree.

Young drivers are too quick etc and dangerous.

But old people cause more trouble as they have no idea like my ridiculous experience today - too old so * them off to a bus.

[Feathers]

I cannot wait until those saying that over <insert age here> drivers should be forced to hand in their licences, actually reach that age, and suddenly change tune to "Nah, mate I'm fine / I have years of experience, I'm really careful / Shouldn't apply to me because I only drive short distances."

[b0son]

Originally Posted by Feathers

I cannot wait until those saying that over <insert age here> drivers should be forced to hand in their licences, actually reach that age, and suddenly change tune to "Nah, mate I'm fine / I have years of experience, I'm really careful / Shouldn't apply to me because I only drive short distances."

Non issue. My car will have autonomous driving by then.

[71cop]

Originally Posted by MercuryT

On way home tonight I nearly t-boned a car who decided to turn right at the round a bout......from the left lane which is straight only. (I was in right lane which can go straight and forward.....I was going forward)

VERY close shave but luckily all fine outside screaming tyres and stuff in the back, ending up scattered in the front. Good brakes helped massively.

Worst part is I caught him and pulled him over. Was completely oblivious to what he did and looked about 80.

Madness.

Madness is chasing people and pulling them over, it's normally only police that do that or did you have something else planned ? the type of incident you describe is not uncommon when it comes to roundabout use in Australia, but to do what you did is something else imo.

[aussiblue]

Madness is chasing people and pulling them over, it's normally only police that do that or did you have something else planned ?

The aged driver is probably now reporting the incident to both the Police and the Aged Abusive Hotline.

[LG17]

Originally Posted by MercuryT

Nah don't agree.

Young drivers are too quick etc and dangerous.

But old people cause more trouble as they have no idea like my ridiculous experience today - too old so * them off to a bus.

Take the blinkers off..

[Tassie f100]

Originally Posted by MercuryT

Nah don't agree.

Young drivers are too quick etc and dangerous.

But old people cause more trouble as they have no idea like my ridiculous experience today - too old so * them off to a bus.

What was the reaction from your parents when you told them they were too old to be driving,and should be catching a bus??

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by MercuryT

Nah don't agree.

Young drivers are too quick etc and dangerous.

But old people cause more trouble as they have no idea like my ridiculous experience today - too old so * them off to a bus.

So you rather banish old troublesome drivers off the roads and put up with young quick dangerous drivers.... I fail to comprehend your reasons.