Sold out: why Australia doesn’t have enough electric vehicles to go around

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by XD 351 Ute

Imagine if we made them here, would there still be a shortage?

What earthly reason would those companies have to spend money duplicating production here
where costs are much higher?

Why production is dying in Australia
An example of that would be when BP refinery in Brisbane closed down, ther was actually two companies,
BP exploration and BP production, the first company sold the refinery the oil at high price so the local refinery looked like a loss maker while exploration remained out reach of Australian taxes. Now they just import petrol and diesel from Asia. Every off shored business does similar……..you think those Thai Utes cost $60k to make?

[Ben73]

Originally Posted by ozrunner

You really are a wombat kmav. Can I remind you that you have approx 3 years left to get to your past magic prediction that by 2025 50% of new cars in Oz will be EV's.

I'm still finding it hard to understand how anyone with even an ounce of brains could have come up with such a dumb statement. Oh wait, there was another one, a guy called Bill Shorten so apologies you are not alone. You do know last year that EV annual sales were under 2% so when is this massive swing going to eventuate.

We've had a couple of newspaper reporters do real world country driving tests in Tesla's and their comments were not all beer and skittles. One guy reported on his Tesla drive from a small section of the Nullabor and his recharging report was an absolute riot not to mention he found the Tesla was a tad underwhelming. The time lost getting recharges to start and ensure he could cover a pitiful distance of 371klm's was hilariously insane and not a good advertisement for country use.

Dude you need to give it a rest as EV's will NEVER be a major player in OZ in our lifetime. Toyota and Nissan have publicly stated they will continue to make ICE for Oz for as long as required and others will most likely do the same.

Luckily for Australia we have a very urbanised population.

Somehow a lot of people on the internet have a 400km round trip to their work/local shop and of course it’s uphill both ways just to drain the battery a little quicker.

[ozrunner]

Originally Posted by Ben73

Luckily for Australia we have a very urbanised population.

Somehow a lot of people on the internet have a 400km round trip to their work/local shop and of course it’s uphill both ways just to drain the battery a little quicker.

Jesus Ben was this irrelevant waffle on purpose or did you purposely miss the point.

So are you telling us that you also meet the wombat criteria and believe that EV's will be 50% of new car sales by 2025 or dare I say even 2030.

[whynot]

Yawn.

This article is less about supply chain issues, less about EV verses ICE, and more of a subtle nudge of political leanings. That said ...

It needs to be really clear - to both ICE and EV proponents - that car manufacturers are not altruistic. They really don't care about petrol engines, diesel engines, batteries, electric drive trains, cherry red paint, deep blue paint with racing stripes, or <insert automobile specification> whatever.

We live in a capitalistic society. All that automobile manufacturers care about is making the most amount of money possible from you (the consumer). They want to attach themselves to your wallet and with as much regularity as possible, suck out as much cash as they can, and ideally make you feel an inner glow of worthiness as you drive that new car out of the Dealer's lot. But, your inner glow is optional if car manufacturers can get their grubby hands on your cash.

If you are a die-in-the-wool <insert option like V8 turbo diesel> person, and car manufactures can sense a profitable market for this combo, then, car manufactures will churn them out. They will even be churning out <insert option> in the year 2322, 2422, and 2522 if there is a profitable market for these cars.

ICE will not disappear if there remains a profitable market for them. Not now, not ever.

However, what is clearly happening is a slow change in consumer sentiment. How or why that sentiment is changing is irrelevant. The bottom line for car manufactures is that some, not all, some, consumers have such a strong preference for an EV that they are prepared to swap brands to avoid buying an ICE. Remember, car manufactures are all about making money. One lost ICE sale (for an EV) is not worth thinking about. Ten thousand lost ICE sales (to another EV car manufacture) is the ebb and flow of business. One hundred thousand lost ICE car sales and now we are starting to talk about impact on profitability.

When you read the next bit, keep in mind that American's were making and selling hamburgers well before McDonalds came along.

While many absolutely despise Elon Musk, you have to give him credit for sensing a market opportunity to sell EV. A decade ago, he was selling $185M worth of cars per annum. Last year he sold $53,824M worth of stock. That is an increase of 29,094% over a decade.

Keep in mind that Ford's income from sales in 2021 was $136B, GM income was $120B, and Toyota $262B.

Ford, GM, Toyota, et al, look at that $53B worth of sales and ask themselves how they can get part of that action.

It doesn't take an Einstein to conclude that since Tesla only sell EV, there must be a market for EV.

There are a few negatives for an established car manufacture;

• EV are expensive to produce
• raw materials are hard to source
• have to rework both the supply chain and manufacturing process
• demand for EV is unknown

On the positive side

• there appears to be unsatisfied demand for EV
• EV are "green" and contribute to a positive company image
• consumers seem prepared to pay good money for an EV

How this eventually plays out - I don't really know. Remember, we live in a capitalistic society with consumers able to choose how they allocate their resources. I have said a few times on this forum that I think the transition from ICE to EV will take around 50 years. I am still sticking to that forecast.

As for the more immediate concern of lack of EV sales ... it is worth also acknowledging that we, the consumers, are very fickle. As an example of how fickle, yesterday I was in my local Coles. There was so much toilet paper that there were pallets of it stockpiled in the isles and on sale. However, there was zero frozen chips in stock. Literally, there was 5 cubic metres of empty freeze shelves set aside for frozen chips.

Almost exactly two years ago, when COVID started, consumers stopped buying cars. Literally, overnight, new car sales plummeted to zero. While it is very easy to write long articles in the Guardian lamenting lack of EV, just imagine being the local AU subsidiary saying in April 2020 to the parent company, "Yeah, we will take 10,000 EV in April 2022".

[jpd80]

Tesla 3 waiting list has grown from four months to nine months even with a near $5,000 increase.
Still no sign of the Tesla Y for Australia but there’s a second Tesla Plant being built in China for the Y.
VW has a BEV manufacturing and battery plant in China about 80% complete with export plans for
a Tesla 3 competitor that roughly Usd$20,000 or about $30,000 in our money with LFP battery pack.

A lot of hype over electric vehicles in a time of restriction, maybe BYD will offer a few of its vehicles,
I have a feeling that Chinese domestic demand is swallowing all of its production space and resources.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by whynot

I have said a few times on this forum that I think the transition from ICE to EV will take around 50 years. I am still sticking to that forecast.

yesterday I was in my local Coles. There was so much toilet paper that there were pallets of it stockpiled in the isles and on sale. However, there was zero frozen chips in stock. Literally, there was 5 cubic metres of empty freeze shelves set aside for frozen chips.

I agree completely,

Also I think the issue with toilet paper being massively stocked up and being no frozen chips, is a category management issue.

It shows they're acting on lag indicators such as customer demand with how they stock their stores rather than lead indicators.

Think of customer demand like a bell curve, customer demand massively increases, you're chasing your suppliers for more and more and more and more stock as the curve goes upwards, but then when customer demand falls off you start receiving your toilet paper on the other end of the bell curve when all the customer demand is gone and no one wants it anymore

You want to read the market and have something before the demand is there so you can sell it right away when the demand appears, thats a lead indicator.

Prior to me departing the industry, the curious case of the BA/BF/FG Falcon shifter cable was a good one, we should have designed, developed and released it 15 years ago when they were new cars in anticipation for it, in the end we designed, developed and released it when all the cars went to the wreckers because they couldn't get replacements and we missed all the customer demand so we had hundreds of BA/BF/FG falcon shifter cables but no customers with Falcons because it took us three years by the time we got the demand to by the time the product was ready to sell to customers

Bringing this back on topic, we're starting to see traditional auto makers get on the EV train, they've left it to Tesla for a long time, missed all the early adopters but they're in a good position to have products in their range ready for customer demand as it ramps up, there's $53B on the table there they're eyeing off a share of.

[Sprintey]

Without reading the whole thread, I tend to use Tony Seba's forecast as a bit of a guide

His forecast was for US, or world market? But what he outlines is a prodigiously big change over the next decade in many markets. One thing I took away from it when I saw it a couple of years ago was 'affordable EV by 2023'.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0

Worth a listen - bear in mind this is 4 years ago when he's making the call.

What I've noticed is that covid/inflation has moved the goal posts of 'affordable'. Where we might have said 20K is a Corolla price and that's where the volume EV must land, that 20K is now 30K- which gets it closer to EV pricing, which is coming down. I think the MG SUV EV offers the best value at present, at about 40-45K it's getting closer to the 30-35K price start in that segment. So it's coming.

The next point is that Australian conditions are different to US/world - we have huge distances and little infrastructure, yet most population in about 7 urban areas. So we might get a schism: ICE/hybrid rules the bush, while the cities go electric. Diesel may well continue to rule how everything gets freighted/harvested/mined for some time yet.

Also of some note, I would argue that we are beginning to see weather patterns change. I'm a surfer so my head is in this space a bit more. Currently the La Nina is doing a good impression of the 1970s, but we're also seeing more meriodonal weather patterns in the northern hemi and resultantly some crazy hot/cold weather shifts and events of heat, snow, flood, cold that are breaking records. The North Atlantic current is slowing. Now whether this is due to CO2 or a forthcoming Grand Solar Minimum - I will leave up to you. (At the same time, the magnetic poles are shifting at an increasing rate and I'd argue this can't be CO2. Also, there are some pretty weird auroral events going on, as well as changes on other bodies in the solar system). If the big weather changes are due to CO2, then this shift to EV will be welcome. But there's much work to do on the grid and power generation if so. If the changes are due to a solar minimum and we cop an extra-large flare during it (when our own magnetic field's protection is lowered) then the joke's on anything electric and mechanical will rule again.

For geopolitical reasons, it would be nice to make all the energy for Australia's car fleet in-house. A bit of a no-brainer. (cough natural gas, cough) It seems globalism has peaked, no biggie, it did before 1914 too: Govco has come out supporting lithium/rare earth metals miners, as we move to develop a Western, in house supply chain.

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by XD 351 Ute

Imagine if we made them here, would there still be a shortage?
Semiconductor supplies aside.

Ed

imagine if we made the semiconductors here...


(clever country)

[Franco Cozzo]

As much as I've been calling BS on all these new 'alternatives', I've made so much money on hydrogen, when that COP26 thing happened and the world leaders started circle jerking about hydrogen my shares went up by circa 200%.

Even if something's bull**** and the real world doesn't stack up, you can make money on environmentalist fervour once these world summits occur or the media spruiks some nonsense, use it to your advantage and get onboard.

There's money to be made

[Ben73]

Originally Posted by ozrunner

Jesus Ben was this irrelevant waffle on purpose or did you purposely miss the point.

So are you telling us that you also meet the wombat criteria and believe that EV's will be 50% of new car sales by 2025 or dare I say even 2030.

Probably won’t be 50% in the next 10 years, but charging points on the Nullabor is not something that will impact 99% of the population.
50% of sales could be EV. Not sure how long it would take but it can probably done within 20 years.

I just see way too many people online complaining about EVs because you cannot easily drive them from Cape Conran to Kalumburu or some other random trip statistically no one does on a normal basis.

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by kypez

Not sure if you're engaging in Satire/Sarcasm or you're being serious...

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

I think he's serious, he's getting great economy from his current car despite the fuel price increases.

There is no financial benefit for him to upgrade to an EV - ROI

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by XD 351 Ute

Imagine if we made them here, would there still be a shortage?
Semiconductor supplies aside.

Ed

all costs aside.

Probably worse. actually I think definitely worse.

if we were actually producing the cars here the shortage of semiconductors would put our low volume production way down the list of importance.

Its could/would have been another reason to halt production.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Vesper Martini

I think he's serious, he's getting great economy from his current car despite the fuel price increases.



There is no financial benefit for him to upgrade to an EV - ROI

It was the comment of not seeing many EVs around when 12,000 odd were sold last year by one brand that put it ahead of Mercedes, Audi, BMW and even more than the Camry!

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by kypez

It was the comment of not seeing many EVs around when 12,000 odd were sold last year by one brand that put it ahead of Mercedes, Audi, BMW and even more than the Camry!

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

The wait on Tesla 3 has blown out from four months to nine even though a ~$5,000 price rise.
It’s time for Tesla to send an extra boat load or two and maybe start sending the more popular Y

[quest]

In my area in NA if everybody turns on their Air Con at the same time the electrical system is almost maxed out.
Can't imagine how it would work if everyone also plugged in an EV.
The infrastructure to support all the future EV's doesn't exist in most places

[kypez]

Originally Posted by quest

In my area in NA if everybody turns on their Air Con at the same time the electrical system is almost maxed out.

Can't imagine how it would work if everyone also plugged in an EV.

The infrastructure to support all the future EV's doesn't exist in most places

Where is NA?

I'd suggest there are more of the population in Australia that won't have any issues vs the ones that would have issues.

If you live somewhere where EVs wouldn't work, simple, don't buy an EV.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

[b0son]

Originally Posted by quest

In my area in NA if everybody turns on their Air Con at the same time the electrical system is almost maxed out.

In Aus, we seem to be having the opposite problem lately. We produce too much electricity due to our high takeup of solar. If batteries were better priced, we could store what we produce during the day, and charge our cars overnight.

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by b0son

In Aus, we seem to be having the opposite problem lately. We produce too much electricity due to our high takeup of solar. If batteries were better priced, we could store what we produce during the day, and charge our cars overnight.

If that's the case why are electricity rates about to rise upto 30% in the next few months?

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Dr Smith

If that's the case why are electricity rates about to rise upto 30% in the next few months?

Mine seems to have dropped recently. I'll wait the 3 months to check it out.

Probably the same reason as petrol is going up too... Ukraine, COVID, "insert excuse here"

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by kypez

Mine seems to have dropped recently. I'll wait the 3 months to check it out.

Probably the same reason as petrol is going up too... Ukraine, COVID, "insert excuse here"

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

I changed from AGL to Lumo and while I'm saving on the actual tariff I pay, the feed in tariff (FIT) from sell back of solar went down to 8c/kwhr...AGL offered 6c, so lowered my FIT and increased the supply rate sending me on a rant....and one of my clients is grandfathered on 60c. FIT

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Dr Smith

I changed from AGL to Lumo and while I'm saving on the actual tariff I pay, the feed in tariff (FIT) from sell back of solar went down to 8c/kwhr...AGL offered 6c, so lowered my FIT and increased the supply rate sending me on a rant....and one of my clients is grandfathered on 60c. FIT

Oh yeah, FIT has gone lower and lower because we are producing more of it and cutting into their margins! If they paid us all 60 cents, they wouldn't make much money off many with solar.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

[Vesper Martini]

LPG Incentives
Solar Incentives
EV Incentives..

[b0son]

Originally Posted by Dr Smith

If that's the case why are electricity rates about to rise upto 30% in the next few months?

Maintenance plus new plants. Snowy Hydro 2.0 for one.... they dont build those things then claw the cost back. They front-load their costs as much as they can get away with.

There are actually issues getting investor funding for new renewable plants because the returns are falling, so the investors arent interested. There are also moves to charge us for the electricity we export when it is surplus to the grid's needs.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by b0son

There are also moves to charge us for the electricity we export when it is surplus to the grid's needs.

I read about this... The pricks want to treat us as mini generation stations and charge for solar exported. "To pay for the upgrade needed to the grid that wasn't designed to have multiple sources for electricity generation".'

Tesla would be turning in his grave at the thought of his beloved AC going down this path.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

[kypez]

VFacts tell a very interesting tale about EVs. Highest selling passenger car in Australia last month was.... An EV!

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[lamborghinifan]

Originally Posted by kypez

I read about this... The pricks want to treat us as mini generation stations and charge for solar exported. "To pay for the upgrade needed to the grid that wasn't designed to have multiple sources for electricity generation".'

Tesla would be turning in his grave at the thought of his beloved AC going down this path.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

Becomes legal in 2024. No details on how retailers are going to implement it as yet.

[Ben73]

Originally Posted by kypez

I read about this... The pricks want to treat us as mini generation stations and charge for solar exported. "To pay for the upgrade needed to the grid that wasn't designed to have multiple sources for electricity generation".'

Tesla would be turning in his grave at the thought of his beloved AC going down this path.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

I’ll buy an overpriced battery before I pay those scumbags to take my electricity.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by kypez

VFacts tell a very interesting tale about EVs. Highest selling passenger car in Australia last month was.... An EV!

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Except it wasn't. Tesla's figures are from the first 3 months of the year, not just March. Because March is the first month they have reported the figures, they included all 3 months sales in the one month. Dodgy, but that's Tesla for you. Always been loose with the truth.

It probably wouldn't have even been in the top 10 vehicles for the month.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Except it wasn't. Tesla's figures are from the first 3 months of the year, not just March.

VFACTS... you had one job. Useless.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Except it wasn't. Tesla's figures are from the first 3 months of the year, not just March. Because March is the first month they have reported the figures, they included all 3 months sales in the one month. Dodgy, but that's Tesla for you. Always been loose with the truth.

It probably wouldn't have even been in the top 10 vehicles for the month.

As in the other thread where you jumped the gun, Tesla didn't report the wrong numbers.

4417 is the yearly number. 3097 was March. Literally in the publications that says exactly that.

I'll await you accepting you got that wrong and were too eager to criticise Tesla. You're a kind of fanboi yourself. The Anti Tesla Fanboi. Whats common to both is they don't like facts.