Russia v Ukraine

[FairmontGS]

Day 32 to Day 48 comparison

• The mayor of the Ukrainian city of Mariupol estimates about 21,000 civilian residents of the city have been killed since the start of the Russian invasion.
• President Vladimir Putin says Russia will continue its offensive in Ukraine after holding talks in Russia’s far east with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko.
• The mayor of Bucha says authorities in the Ukrainian town have found 403 bodies of people they believe were killed by Russian forces.
• Ukraine says Russia is likely to try and capture the besieged port city of Mariupol as fears rise over an expected offensive on the eastern Donbas region.
• The United Nations demands an independent investigation into allegations that Russian forces have raped women and committed other forms of sexual violence.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...netsk-liveblog

[FairmontGS]

There's a potential military catastrophe brewing for Putin Army South according to some strategists. If Ukrainian forces breakout north from Mariupol and join up with relieving forces grouping just above then the entire Putin Army South would be trapped on the Ukrainian mainland and Crimean Peninsular with a single bridge to the east their only way out. A bridge that could be cut with one tomahawk cruise missile.

[PhilT2]

Remember when the Russian convoy heading towards Keiv was described as 40 miles long? Now the convoy leaving the the Keiv area and heading east is described as 8 miles long; seems like a few miles of convoy have gone missing. There may be a lot of reasons for this so I'm not reading too much into it, I'm inclined to believe the military experts who are saying this could drag on for years.

The Russians walked into Crimea in 2014 and took it over without much trouble, they were expecting it to be the same this time. They got a rude awakening and won't be caught out again; they are still militarily superior to Ukraine and can reinforce and resupply forces in the east easily as they are close to the Russian border.

Apart from all the murder, rape, looting and destruction it is not all bad news. Australia should do well out of this war. We are major exporters of some of the things Russia can no longer provide. Wheat, gas and coal will all go up in price and we will be able to sell as much as we can ship. We won't be able to make up the shortfall from lost Russian and Ukranian production so lots of people in the Middle East and Africa will starve. But US arms manufacturers will make a mint and there will be cheap yachts for sale confiscated from Russian oligarchs so the rich will be ok.

[Polyal]

It would be interesting to know how much Tech and Supplies Ukraine has been sent and if that is making the difference. They perhaps dont need raw numbers if the weapons can be used remotely and with little system support etc.

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by Polyal

It would be interesting to know how much Tech and Supplies Ukraine has been sent and if that is making the difference. They perhaps don't need raw numbers if the weapons can be used remotely and with little system support etc.

Have a read of this if you have a minute - quite astounding how warfare tech has moved on. The tank has gone the way of the battleship it seems.

Ukraine conflict: Why is Russia losing so many tanks?

It is thought that Russia has lost hundreds of tanks within two months of invading Ukraine.

Military experts put the losses down to the advanced anti-tank weapons which western nations have given to Ukraine, and to the poor way Russia has used its tanks.

Ukraine's armed forces say Russia has lost more than 680 tanks.

Meanwhile, Oryx - a military and intelligence blog which counts Russia's military losses in Ukraine on the basis of photographs sent from the war zone - says Russia has lost more than 460 tanks and over 2,000 other armoured vehicles.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-61021388

[burnz]

Originally Posted by Mulva

So Putin getting played? Got sucked into destroying Russia's economy and reputation - manipulated into punching himself in the balls?

S&P now say Russia has defaulted on their debt

if Australia and New Zealand went to war with each other,
the USA would sell weapons to both sides and prop up the weaker one to make the war go longer..

remember America sold weapon to Germany and England for profit..

[Mulva]

Originally Posted by burnz

if Australia and New Zealand went to war with each other,
the USA would sell weapons to both sides and prop up the weaker one to make the war go longer..

remember America sold weapon to Germany and England for profit..

I have no doubt about that - just surprised that Putin was stupid enough to fall for it, to further enrich the US while simultaneously causing so much damage to Russia's economy, armed forces and reputation.

And yet here we are

[xkxlxm]

Tanks. Still very useful for pounding away at defenceless populations. Just park the tanks and pound away. And hit them with all your more sophisticated weapons, too. This happens in a certain part of the ME with monotonous regularity.

[FairmontGS]

I don't think the Syrians have many T-72As still in service that could move, let alone "pound"...

[zilo]

Originally Posted by Mulva

I don't claim to be an expert in long term economics, but show me one recognised expert that says this won't have lasting negative impact on Russia's economy.

?

Burden of proof is on you pal.
You made the statement.

I suspect you are simply liberating rhetoric from facebook or some other "expert" source.

You can always say it is just your opinion then we can shrug our shoulders and say...ok...ok...ok..

In my opinion President Putin is strategically smiling as he migrates away from using the US dollar as the exchange standard and specifying Rubles or Gold for gas and oil.

[FairmontGS]

Putin’s war to wipe out 15 years of progress for Russian economy

Russia is set to erase 15 years of economic gains by the end of 2023 after its invasion of Ukraine spurred a multitude of sanctions and prompted companies to pull out of the country, according to the Institute of International Finance.

The economy is expected to contract 15% in 2022, followed by a decline of 3% in 2023, leaving gross domestic product where it was about fifteen years ago, economists Benjamin Hilgenstock and Elina Ribakova wrote in a preliminary assessment of the impact of the war, noting that further sanctions may change their view.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/20...ussian-economy

Putin’s invasion of Ukraine will knock 30 years of progress off the Russian economy

• Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine and the global response to it will drastically alter Russia’s economic future, setting the country back 30 years, experts say.
• As the country’s economy collapses, the exodus of global brands will give rise to a profound shift in how middle-class citizens will make and spend their money.
• Experts say the coming period of Russian economic isolation could last at least five years, but more likely will be measured in decades.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/14/puti...-30-years.html

World Bank reveals damage to Russian GDP from sanctions and says Ukraine economy to be slashed by half

Ukraine's economic output is likely to contract by a drastic 45.1 per cent due to Russia's unprovoked invasion, which has rendered economic activity impossible in the European nation, the World Bank said.

The Washington-based lender in its "War in the Region" economic update on Sunday said Russia's GDP output for 2022 will fall 11.2 per cent owing to the plethora of sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies.

As per the report, the unprecedented sanctions have pushed Russia's economy towards a "deep recession".

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b2055271.html

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by zilo

In my opinion President Putin is strategically smiling as he migrates away from using the US dollar as the exchange standard and specifying Rubles or Gold for gas and oil.

What advantage is there in being paid in rubles? Maybe it helps prop up the value of the currency in the short term but long term Russia will need US$ to buy what it needs to import.

And they have ****ed off their biggest customer, Germany is now arranging to get gas and oil from elsewhere. It may take a while but in the long term they will lose sales to all of Europe. It must be starting to hurt as they are already discounting oil to India (and getting paid in rupees)

Russia has also lost some of the customers for their arms sales. They were next after the US in sales and while they will keep their main buyers, China and India, they will lose many of the Eastern European countries to the US.

The Russian economy is small, just above Australia but below South Korea. Wars are expensive, it's just a matter of time before this totally screws their economy.
https://theconversation.com/the-cost...ukraine-178826

[Citroënbender]

I’ve seen pro Soviet - not just pro Russian - trolling on accounts of Ukrainian performers and eastern bloc anti-war critics on YT. This seems new.

I think people are only remembering fondly the cheap housing, industrial grade dentistry and overbuilt eyewear, while forgetting the travel restrictions, shortages, corruption and surveillance.

[T3rminator]

Russia will not be short of customers. Major emerging economies, the likes of China, India, Indonesia, Brazil? have shown that they have no interest in following the western sanctions. Its a big advantage for them to start taking resources from Russia. People need to remember, "the west" only makes up a small portion of the entire world. I still think the wholesale sanctions and freezing of assets is a mistake. Emerging economies are watching and learning, expect more to start insulating themselves from the current global order.

Oh, trade surplus has hit records, albeit due to tightening of imports.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...ices-Soar.html

And if they go down the nationalisation route, it may give their GDP a kick along. Its hardly a win for Russia, but the sanctions have not been the death knell "the west" had been hoping for.

[five 7]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

while forgetting the travel restrictions, shortages, corruption and surveillance.

Kinda sounds like Aus and NZ these last couple of years...

[zilo]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

What advantage is there in being paid in rubles? ..........................................

I didn't read any further.

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Russia will not be short of customers.

I'm sure that they are exploring all their options at the moment. But they have spent billions on the pipeline to Europe which has a huge demand for gas for their industry. They don't have a pipeline to other countries; at least not from the Yamal fields. They had to get finance and expertise from other countries to build Nordstream 2 so I think their capacity to pipe large quantities to another country may be limited.

Russia will still have buyers for their oil; they have just lost the US and European countries. There may be issues with shipping, privately owned tankers may be reluctant to risk being boycotted by the US. I don't know from where Russian oil is shipped but if the terminals were in the Black Sea and the Ukrainians get anti-ship missiles will they take the risk? Maybe the US could use its influence to make access through the Suez difficult. The same restrictions may apply to shipping LNG and coal. There are already sanctions on Russian ships but I don't know what impact those will have. If a ship that loads Russian oil is then banned from ever loading in any US, European or Saudi port what owners would risk that?

[Mulva]

Both Finland and Sweden doing more than just considering joining NATO.

Finland is producing a report due next week on their security policy, Sweden's report due end of next month. Those reports are one of the first steps of applying for NATO membership.

Finland joining NATO would be hilarious - giving Russia a further 1300km of border shared with NATO, putting NATO 400km from St Petersberg.

Well played Putin, well played - keep rolling back those NATO borders you master strategist.

[JasonACT]

Originally Posted by zilo

I have lived in Russia.

Then... welcome to the best country on the planet. Something I hope we both believe. A place where a beaten and battered partner can leave their abuser and take out an effective restraining order.

[Mulva]

Originally Posted by zilo

Burden of proof is on you pal.
You made the statement.

I suspect you are simply liberating rhetoric from facebook or some other "expert" source.

You can always say it is just your opinion then we can shrug our shoulders and say...ok...ok...ok..

In my opinion President Putin is strategically smiling as he migrates away from using the US dollar as the exchange standard and specifying Rubles or Gold for gas and oil.

Reckon FairmontGS's post immediately below yours would be a good place for you to start, assuming you actually will objectively look at "proof".

If not, then happy to say it is just my personal "opinion" that things I think won't be good for the Russian economy are the sanctions being imposed, the hit to their GDP, them having to close their stock market for over a month and only recently opening it for limited (manipulated) trading, the 17% interest rates that are stifling local investment while foreign investment is gone, the ever increasing list of companies that are leaving their market, the brain-drain they are experiencing as their best and brightest are leaving in droves, the Ruble losing most of its value and being unstable and unwanted, and the major consumers of their gas and oil actively putting in place measures to reduce their purchases.

What I don't think will be good for the morale of their troops is that many are now complaining of not receiving the financial incentives they were promised, but given those reports are coming from 2 of their tank brigades they must just be withholding payment knowing it won't be long before those troops get a javelin through their turret and then there is no one for them to pay.

In fairness, Ukraine's GDP is being hit 3-times harder than Russia's, but my "opinion" is they will receive support and assistance to rebuild and recover, but I doubt Russia will receive the same.

Personally think Russia are at risk of ending up China's gimp. But I know, I know, you didn't read this far.

[Mulva]

The 'Moskva' guided missile cruiser, flagship of Russia' s Black Sea fleet and some say the Russian warship told to go **** itself, has either sunk or is badly damaged and sinking (depending on who you listen to).

Ukraine claiming to have hit it with 2 missiles and it has now sunk, Russia claiming there was a fire and that triggered an explosion of the ship's ammunition but all crew were safely evacuated (though intercepted distress calls refute this).

Likely both are right - Ukraine hit it with 2 missiles which caused a fire.

Have seen some joke it will be reported that the Moskva "intercepted" 2 missiles, while others say it will be spun as Putin the environmentalist creating a new artificial reef.

Meanwhile. Finnish and Swedish prime ministers hold joint press-conference saying they will be deciding whether to join NATO very soon (Finland "within weeks")...Finland's decision due early May, Sweden's due late May. Some very strong indicators which way they are leaning, with things like:

The difference between being a partner and a member is very clear, and will remain so. There is no other way to have security guarantees than under Nato’s deterrence and common defence as guaranteed by the alliance’s article 5”

Andersson said there was “no point” in delaying analysis of whether it was right for Sweden to apply for Nato membership. “There is a before and after 24 February,” she said, referring to the date on which Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. “This is a very important time in history. The security landscape has completely changed. We have to analyse the situation to see what is best for Sweden’s security, for the Swedish people, in this new situation.”

Makes sense to act quick while Russia is already over-extended in Ukraine. Unfortunately I reckon Russia will manage to take the East of Ukraine, and they'll settle for that and claim it as their original and only objective knowing they cannot take all of Ukraine as they'd hoped to do in 3 days...so act now while Russia already has its hands full and is only in a position to talk a big game

[FairmontGS]

Looks to be confirmed as sunk now.

What did I say yesterday about tanks and battleships? Anti-ship missiles are a thing obviously. The boys at Lockheed Martin would be pretty pleased with that trial...

https://www.google.com.au/search?q=c...client=gws-wiz

[Mulva]

Very big get - not just the fact it carries more than 60 SAMs, but it was also their radar lynch-pin for the southern area. You'd have to think a seaborne invasion on Odessa is now less likely

[Polyal]

Christ, while these wins are great for Ukraine I get a bad feeling Russia is going to snap at some point and launch something large as it gets backed into a corner. But what else do you do, can't just wait for them.

[Mulva]

Yeah, I just hope saner heads prevail on the Russian side if it comes to that. Would not be surprised if they do try chemical weapons somewhere where they think they can get away with it (if they haven't yet done so), but when it comes to nukes their doctrine states they only use them in response to a nuclear attack (no first use policy) or in response to an act of aggression through conventional weapons that threatens the very existence of the state.

He'd have a hard time trying to sell Ukraine defending themselves against invasion threatens the existence of Russia, and would like to think even he wouldn't try to and also would not try change their nuclear use doctrine...but you never know, he's been making poor decision after poor decision for months now, and who knows how he will react as his ego gets more and more bruised and the legacy he wants to leave continues to evaporate. Still don't think he'd be that dumb, but his lack of foresight continues to astound and so just hope there are some strong enough to prevent that should it ever come about, whether it be through morality and decency or just straight-out self-preservation.

[MITCHAY]

It appears that Mariupol is on the brink or has already been captured which is not a real surprise. The thing is they are absolutely demolishing everything.

Russia is still calling it a special operation rather than a war. The problem with that is as the war goes on they will need more and more troops.

It gets a lot harder to sell in the face of what is obvious. A special mission doesn't take this long and doesn't involve the amount of casualties.

At this point I can't see that Russia will stop unless they are beaten back hard enough, the public turn against Putin, or they are given a significant off ramp to take.

They simply don't give a **** how this appears to the world.

[T3rminator]

After buying cheap Russian oil, India is now setting sights on its coal
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/14/afte...-its-coal.html


Its coking coal too, one of our key minerals.

[MITCHAY]

India is in a weird position considering they are apart of the Quad. They are aligned with us on China but have good relationship with Russia.

Unless the Quad countries and in particular the US are going to give them a better deal, then I feel this is just something we will have to accept and pressuring them too much might lead to worse outcome.

Remembering all the other countries are still buying up Russia oil and gas due to having a dependency it would be unfair to target them specifically.

[T3rminator]

There has been a lot of conjecture on who is winning or losing. This is a must watch. Won't hear this type of analysis anywhere else.

Was posted 2 weeks ago but still relevant.

[FairmontGS]

Confirmed by the Russians:

Russian warship Moskva has sunk - defence ministry

Late on Thursday, however, Russian state media broke the news that the ship had been lost.

Ukrainian military officials said they struck the Moskva with a Ukrainian-made Neptune missile - a weapon designed after Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, and the naval threat to Ukraine in the Black Sea grew.

Earlier in the conflict the Moskva gained notoriety after calling on Ukrainian border troops defending Snake Island in the Black Sea to surrender - to which they memorably radioed a message of refusal which loosely translates as "go to hell".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_cruiser_Moskva

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baykar_Bayraktar_TB2

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R-360_Neptune