Covid 19 -

[russellw]

Given that the Victorian easing of restrictions is linked to the 14 day rolling average for new cases, here is a chart depicting the current movement in those numbers.

Note that the guidelines for the next Stage in the road map are based on 'metro' and ' regional' having different targets but I don't have a readily available data set to split between the two so these are the State based averages and thus show a worse result than metro would in isolation. The target is 30-50 new cases on a rolling 14D average.

The move to the 3rd stage (> 26 October and < 5 cases Statewide) is back to whole of State numbers as is the 4th stage (0 cases for >=14D).



I'll add that graph to each of the daily stats.

[Mr_G6ET]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavi...bay-wastewater

So why do they stick a huge swab up your nose, instead of a urine test?

I guess its because of the sample size, convenience, location where the test can take place. Also it goes in the nose and later out the other end.
Imagine the logistics of urine testing road sige, stage fright, facilities etc.
Think about if a stool sample was the preferred method

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavi...bay-wastewater

So why do they stick a huge swab up your nose, instead of a urine test?

It's more socially acceptable to do a nasal swab in public than a urine test.

[FPV8U]

Originally Posted by Polyal

And when it proves that none of those makes to much of a difference people will complain that the Gov gives false information and they cant be trusted...cant win.

If you guys want to pop Vit C then knock your socks off.

Except it’s already starting to prove otherwise, we have implemented many changes based on limited information into their actual success like initially social distancing and then mask wearing, only for the studies to confirm later their legitimate benefit, why would supplements be treated any different?

I hardly think anyone would criticise the State or Federal health department from endorsing good diet, exercise, healthy sun exposure and supplements to improve general health in the community.

For those interested another good review into current Vitamin D studies going on, personally I prefer this Dr rather than Dr John Campbell as it’s less scribbling one paper and more well laid out graphs and professionally presented however their conclusions are usually quite similar.

https://youtu.be/DZuCrwYa80s

Doctors have reported the virus can be found in multiple places in the body but not always, some people just get the respiratory illness and others get a digestive illness but nothing in the lungs/etc.

So given the transmission is largely from droplets suspended within bodily fluids, it probably made more sense from a public health standpoint to try identify people with the virus in their nose/throat as they'll be coughing/breathing out those particles whereas most of us don't go around ****ing on people in public so there's probably less risk there.

[falcon_bandit]

Dementia patient in a qld aged care facility, got tested for the virus, & while everyone waiting for the results, he is allowed to walk around the large building & interact with all the other residents & staff. I thought u had to be isolated until results come back?

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by FPV8U

I hardly think anyone would criticise the State or Federal health department from endorsing good diet, exercise, healthy sun exposure and supplements to improve general health in the community.

The Gov already promotes such things for good health, hopefully without the supplement suggestion, just eat well, the whole supplement industry is a farce unless you have other underlying health concerns.

People dont want the Gov to tell them what to do, until they can find a loop hole to dodge any personal responsibility.

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by FPV8U

For those interested another good review into current Vitamin D studies going on, personally I prefer this Dr rather than Dr John Campbell as it’s less scribbling one paper and more well laid out graphs and professionally presented however their conclusions are usually quite similar.

https://youtu.be/DZuCrwYa80s

Neither is a medical doctor, both have PhD's. Dr Campbell was a professor at a university teaching emergency care nursing. He has taught and worked in many parts of the world.
Dr Martensen has a degree in pathology but I can't find any evidence that he has ever worked in any medical field. His main focus seems to be economic forecasting.
I have difficulty making sense of complex medical papers and have to rely on the expertise of the person discussing the article so i prefer people who have actually worked in the field and have a lifetime of experience.

[russellw]

Here is a bit of a look at how some of the European countries have fared since the start of the pandemic. In alphabetical order:

Albania: while the case numbers are low at about 5 per 100k of population, they are in the grip of a second wave that has steadily grown since early June and might only just be abating although the trend-line doesn't show that.



Austria: also running around 5 cases / 100k, they had a big dip between April and early June after an early (steep) peak but have been climbing steadily since and while the numbers aren't as bad as the early peak this second wave keeps setting new benchmarks for case numbers.



Bulgaria: a bit lower for case numbers with 2-3 per 100k they have been pretty much climbing apart from a small respite in late May although the last few weeks has seen a reduction of sorts.



Denmark: A bit over 4 cases / 100k, they are also on the climb again after a lengthy period in decline although they haven't reached the levels of the first wave (yet).



Greece: Despite being mostly well below 1 case / 100k; the second wave, like Australia, has proven much worse than the first with the highest numbers recorded in late August. It has softened a bit this last week or so but time will tell if that is a real or temporary gain.



Hungary: now running around 5 cases / 100k this was a pretty graph as they had consistently low daily case numbers until late August when the second wave hit with a vengeance and their highest daily number was only a couple of days ago.



Portugal: now running around 3-4 cases / 100k they got hit hard with an early peak but haven't really made continuous gains since with the recent overall trend being upwards.



Romania: now running between 5-7 cases / 100k this has been heading the wrong way since early June and although the numbers are a bit peaky (thanks to reporting I suspect) the overall trend is rising.



Serbia: now running below 1 case / 100k this is what I'd expect most countries to look like with an early first wave followed by a period of decline; a second wave wave of 4-6 weeks and then a steady decline as that is got under control.

[cs123]

Originally Posted by russellw

Here is a bit of a look at how some of the European countries have fared since the start of the pandemic. In alphabetical order:

Albania: while the case numbers are low at about 5 per 100k of population, they are in the grip of a second wave that has steadily grown since early June and might only just be abating although the trend-line doesn't show that.

Austria: also running around 5 cases / 100k, they had a big dip between April and early June after an early (steep) peak but have been climbing steadily since and while the numbers aren't as bad as the early peak this second wave keeps setting new benchmarks for case numbers.

Bulgaria: a bit lower for case numbers with 2-3 per 100k they have been pretty much climbing apart from a small respite in late May although the last few weeks has seen a reduction of sorts.

Denmark: A bit over 4 cases / 100k, they are also on the climb again after a lengthy period in decline although they haven't reached the levels of the first wave (yet).

Greece: Despite being mostly well below 1 case / 100k; the second wave, like Australia, has proven much worse than the first with the highest numbers recorded in late August. It has softened a bit this last week or so but time will tell if that is a real or temporary gain.

Hungary: now running around 5 cases / 100k this was a pretty graph as they had consistently low daily case numbers until late August when the second wave hit with a vengeance and their highest daily number was only a couple of days ago.

Portugal: now running around 3-4 cases / 100k they got hit hard with an early peak but haven't really made continuous gains since with the recent overall trend being upwards.

Romania[/B]: now running between 5-7 cases / 100k this has been heading the wrong way since early June and although the numbers are a bit peaky (thanks to reporting I suspect) the overall trend is rising.

Serbia: now running below 1 case / 100k this is what I'd expect most countries to look like with an early first wave followed by a period of decline; a second wave wave of 4-6 weeks and then a steady decline as that is got under control.

Do you have any analysis on what those countries did when the second wave hit? ie what has been effective

[Romulus]

Originally Posted by russellw

There have been plenty of advice provided both via the Vic Emergency App and on the DHHS web site as well as in the various news broadcasts and TV ads.



Way back in this thread I posted the percentages of people that had one of the 5 major co-morbidities (hypertension, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease, diabetes and cancer) and it was probably a little higher than the 40% quoted.

It's not got a whole lot to do with the health system in general but rather the lifestyles we lead and the fact that most of those ailments are readily managed by medication and are generally not immediately life threatening in themselves with the exception of (some) cancers of course.

Hypertension (apart from hereditary types) is linked to poor exercise, diets high in salt and saturated fat as well as diabetes.

Type 2 diabetes (the more common kind) is also linked to diet.

CVD is linked to both diabetes and hypertension as well as diet, smoking and physical condition (obesity being a major cause).

COPD is linked to environmental factors and smoking.

Cancer is the great unknown in terms of causal factors that may or may not be in our control.

I'm also not absolutely sure that all the advice provided by the CR Government has sound basis in scientific facts but at least there isn't anything in it to worsen the situation.

You make very valid points and I'm impressed with how you've articulated them.

What I note is missing from the Health advise, and correct me if I'm wrong, but there has been almost no mention of nutrition, having a multi-vitamin and getting out in the sun and/or getting exercise as a way to build up your immune system. I'd be happy for you to provide the government links, brochures etc on how these things can help reduce the effects of Covid-19.

The only thing I've heard all the talking heads from government mention is a vaccine. Interestingly enough the AZ trial has temporarily been put on hold due to an adverse reaction. Lets hope the details of this adverse reaction are made public.

[russellw]

Albania went into heavy lockdown during March and maintained it until late April when restrictions were gradually eased and pretty much fully removed by June 1st, which, as the data shows, was too much relaxation too early and I don't think they have reintroduced them either. I'd call that a fail.

Austria also went into lockdown (with curfew) from March until early June but then opened most of the borders and ran a massive tourism campaign for the neighbouring countries. They did reintroduce mandatory masks from early July and still have some restrictions in place which is probably why the second wave hasn't been too severe.

Bulgaria had a solid early response but removed most restrictions in June and have been paying for it ever since.

Denmark did much better than the neighbouring countries in the early stages but they too have been removing restrictions since July and only reintroduced some in mid August.

Greece also responded well initially but had zero restrictions by late July, including International travel. They are busy blaming the citizens for not following guidelines while the numbers escalate out of control. Another FAIL.

Hungary exercised the emergency powers to lockdown the country early in April but then the parliament voted to remove those emergency powers in early June which didn't seem to hurt them so it's hard to see where the recent spike came from.

Portugal went into lockdown early but started easing restrictions as early as April 30th and had completely removed them by late June abut has subsequently reintroduced some of them.

Pretty much the same story for Romania except they haven't reintroduced any of the countermeasures.

Serbia had an early lockdown and then relaxed it in early June after a change of Government but reintroduced most of the lockdown measures in late July.

[FairmontGS]

How's Slovenia fairing Russ? They impressed me as a go-ahead, very healthy, common-sense country from my visit last year.

Croatia as well would be good.

Thanks in advance.

[PhilT2]

Trials of the Oxford University/Astrazeneca vaccine (AZD 1222) have been halted because one of the volunteers became ill with transverse myelitis. This is a rare disease the cause of which is not fully known. There is no information yet on how long ago the volunteer received the vaccine.
https://www.webmd.com/multiple-scler...myelitis-facts

[T3rminator]

2nd wave coming in the UK. It is trending the same fashion as the 1st wave.
Group gatherings now limited to 6 people, but no "heavy" restrictions yet. How long do they wait until they pull the trigger....if at all?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...-picking-pace/

"On Sunday, after it was announced the UK had seen nearly 3,000 new coronavirus infections, Health Secretary Matt Hancock warned young people not to "infect their grandparents".
The cases are predominantly among younger people, but we've seen in other countries across the world and in Europe, this sort of rise in the cases amongst younger people leading to a rise across the population as a whole,” said Mr Hancock."

On the flip side...

"On the other hand, Dr Neil Stone, an infectious disease specialist at University College Hospital in London, said: "I don't believe the Covid-19 epidemic in the UK, US and elsewhere has 'shifted' to younger, healthier people. They just weren't being tested before."

It will be interesting to see what the death rate is this time around. Or what the effects are on younger people.

[Mr_G6ET]

Fines issued:
I cant believe/understand the amount of 'people' that avoid isolation, have party, etc. The Vic state is on the rundown but any few of these could cause the extension and harm to so many including economics.
Sure, there is likely a better way to manage this but the people are simply not smart enough to take the health of the nation into their hands.
Too many rednecks

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

How's Slovenia fairing Russ? They impressed me as a go-ahead, very healthy, common-sense country from my visit last year.
.

Don't know about the pandemic but doing pretty good at this years Tour de France so far.

[PG2]

Originally Posted by Romulus

...

What I note is missing from the Health advise, and correct me if I'm wrong, but there has been almost no mention of nutrition, having a multi-vitamin and getting out in the sun and/or getting exercise as a way to build up your immune system. I'd be happy for you to provide the government links, brochures etc on how these things can help reduce the effects of Covid-19.

The only thing I've heard all the talking heads from government mention is a vaccine. Interestingly enough the AZ trial has temporarily been put on hold due to an adverse reaction. Lets hope the details of this adverse reaction are made public.

To be honest, I haven't seen too much at all regarding preventative measures apart from social distancing and washing your hands.

While I don't pretend to have all of the answers (in fact, I don't pretend to have any answers) you would think that there would be more exposure for these sort of preventative measures. Maybe they aren't news worthy against everything else that is going on.

Speaking of which, while I won't criticise, personally I haven't seen too much information on how we social distance. Sure, we've been told we have to social distance but for God knows how long we have been packed into cities like sardines and became used to this. Then we were told to change our habits overnight?

A suggestion (probably a dumb suggestion) would have been to employ some celebrities to make things 'cool', such as social distancing, touching elbows, taking multi-vitamins, getting out in the sun etc. Kids/teenagers would start doing it and hopefully they would then shame their parents into doing it too. Sort of like encouragement instead of using a big stick.

I'll be honest, these lockdowns etc are not affecting my livelihood, but what I am worried about is how they are going to affect my kids and grand children's lives in years to come.

Sorry for the long post.

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by PG2

To be honest, I haven't seen too much at all regarding preventative measures apart from social distancing and washing your hands.

My local member of parliament is constantly sending me info on what's happening here. The main reason is he's up for re-election in Oct. But I know what local businesses are doing as part of their Covid plan. A local company ha been given a govt contract to manufacture masks. He's also sent me info on what local schools and sports clubs are doing about Covid including the importance of exercise. And instructions on how to do handwashing properly and where to go to get a test. When there's a case in my area I get sent a list of what shops the infected person has been to and what times they were there. Is nothing like this coming through to you? My facebook gets more than I need.

It's funny how an election motivates politicians to do their job.

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by PG2

A suggestion (probably a dumb suggestion) would have been to employ some celebrities to make things 'cool', such as social distancing, touching elbows, taking multi-vitamins, getting out in the sun etc. Kids/teenagers would start doing it and hopefully they would then shame their parents into doing it too. Sort of like encouragement instead of using a big stick.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-...paign/12585894
They had a bit of a go at it, it was criticised because some of the celeb's got paid for their time and they were seen as the elites telling the rest of us what to do.

I think it was a good idea but as this thread shows; you can not please everyone, and some will put the slipper into the 'administration' no matter what they do...

[PG2]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

My local member of parliament is constantly sending me info on what's happening here. The main reason is he's up for re-election in Oct. But I know what local businesses are doing as part of their Covid plan. A local company ha been given a govt contract to manufacture masks. He's also sent me info on what local schools and sports clubs are doing about Covid including the importance of exercise. And instructions on how to do handwashing properly and where to go to get a test. When there's a case in my area I get sent a list of what shops the infected person has been to and what times they were there. Is nothing like this coming through to you? My facebook gets more than I need.

It's funny how an election motivates politicians to do their job.

I get nothing from my local member, and if I was to be honest, if something was sent I wouldn't take much notice. I take even less notice of politicians than I do the media and that's saying something.

I'm probably talking more mainstream. Instead of celebrities making political comments that I feel they are generally not qualified to make and only do for their own publicity, they do something positive and encourage what I mentioned above to make it 'cool' to do.

Originally Posted by Work Horse

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-...paign/12585894
They had a bit of a go at it, it was criticised because some of the celeb's got paid for their time and they were seen as the elites telling the rest of us what to do.

I think it was a good idea but as this thread shows; you can not please everyone, and some will put the slipper into the 'administration' no matter what they do...

Yeah, I saw some of that but to me they were preaching. I'm talking more about just doing it without the preaching. Make it look 'cool' and part of everyday living.

Celebs recently released Foo Fighters 'Times Like These' relating to COVID. Maybe something similar to that.

Don't make it part of a 'campaign' though, people are sick of campaigns and don't take any notice of them - some even rebel against them.

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by PG2

Celebs recently released Foo Fighters 'Times Like These' relating to COVID. Maybe something similar to that.

Don't make it part of a 'campaign' though, people are sick of campaigns and don't take any notice of them - some even rebel against them.

I would like to see what happens if either a celeb or a govt ad starts promoting vit D. Would the brawls move from the toilet paper aisle to the vitamin aisle?

I think some people feel obliged to do the exact opposite of anything the govt tells them even though they are fully aware what they are doing is stupid. The best example of this is the Sturgis rally in South Dakota. This turned out to be what is being called a "super spreader" event. Details here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qk4zKkNC6mU&t=1281s

tl;dr large motorcycle rally spread Covid increased cases over a wide area and cost taxpayers $12billion.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by PG2

I'll be honest, these lockdowns etc are not affecting my livelihood, but what I am worried about is how they are going to affect my kids and grand children's lives in years to come.
Sorry for the long post.

There will be impacts but when it comes to children but I'm not 100% convinced that those impacts will actually be negative ones because I can see some positives in the present situation.

Originally Posted by Romulus

You make very valid points and I'm impressed with how you've articulated them.

What I note is missing from the Health advise, and correct me if I'm wrong, but there has been almost no mention of nutrition, having a multi-vitamin and getting out in the sun and/or getting exercise as a way to build up your immune system. I'd be happy for you to provide the government links, brochures etc on how these things can help reduce the effects of Covid-19.

The only thing I've heard all the talking heads from government mention is a vaccine. Interestingly enough the AZ trial has temporarily been put on hold due to an adverse reaction. Lets hope the details of this adverse reaction are made public.

You are right as about the only advice that is even similar from the DHHS is this:

Stay healthy

• Keep eating a balanced diet.
• Get regular exercise and sleep.
• Reduce your alcohol intake.
• If you’re a smoker, think about and try quitting.
• Get vaccinated for flu (influenza). This will help reduce the demand on the healthcare system as it deals with coronavirus (COVID-19). Vaccines are now available from your GP and pharmacy.

Some details of the adverse reaction were made public and it has been described as transverse myelitis which is defined as:

... an inflammation of both sides of one section of the spinal cord. This neurological disorder often damages the insulating material covering nerve cell fibers (myelin). Transverse myelitis interrupts the messages that the spinal cord nerves send throughout the body

It may end up having nothing to do with the vaccine as there are other possible causes:

Causes of transverse myelitis include both bacterial and viral infections, immune system disorders, and other disorders that may damage or destroy myelin, the fatty white insulating substance that covers nerve cell fibers.

There is no actual cure for it but about 70% of those who get it do recover within a couple of months and never have a repeat incident as it is usually monophasic while others can have on-going issues or subsequent 'episodes'. It's rare, with the USA having around 1,400 cases a year (2 cases per million people).

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

How's Slovenia fairing Russ? They impressed me as a go-ahead, very healthy, common-sense country from my visit last year.

Croatia as well would be good.

Thanks in advance.

Slovenia is in the grip of a second wave after having got on top of the first wave between April and late June and while the numbers aren't quite as high as the first wave, this second wave has been steadily climbing since then. They have a CMR of 4.55%; 134 cases / 100k and 6.4 deaths / 100k.

Croatia is doing even worse. Their first wave was very small numbers and they got it under control over about a 6 week period up to early May. They then had 6 weeks of zero (or almost zero) cases before the second wave started in mid June and although there was a slight lull in early August the numbers continue to climb and are much higher now than the first wave with their highest daily total only a week ago. They have a CMR of 1.62%; 307 cases / 100k and 5.0 deaths / 100k.

For context: Australia has a CMR of 2.95%, 103 cases and 3.0 deaths / 100k.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

I would like to see what happens if either a celeb or a govt ad starts promoting vit D.

They want people to try to limit their going outdoors... If they start promoting Vit D every man and his dog will use it as an excuse to go to the beach/park etc etc.

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by prydey

They want people to try to limit their going outdoors... If they start promoting Vit D every man and his dog will use it as an excuse to go to the beach/park etc etc.

Let's be honest about this; most of us limit our outdoor activity without much persuasion needed. Going for a walk for many means getting off the couch and going to the refrigerator.

[Charliewool]

Originally Posted by prydey

They want people to try to limit their going outdoors... If they start promoting Vit D every man and his dog will use it as an excuse to go to the beach/park etc etc.

And, the problem with that is????

[russellw]

91 new cases for Australia and 11 deaths sees the CMR rise to 2.951% while active drop to 2,821. NSW recorded 9 cases; Queensland recorded 8, with the balance in Victoria. The Victorian State 14 day moving average is now 83.71.

6 new cases and zero deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.342% and active cases rise to 125.

The UK had 2,659 new cases yesterday as the 2nd wave continues to spiral out of control. We know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines so we are going to ignore those figures.

Just over 29k new cases in the USA yesterday and 496 deaths sees CMR drop to 2.979% and active cases drop to 38.7% with the raw numbers still dropping. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 28M, with the last 1M taking 4 days;
The USA completes 89M, India 51M, Russia 39M, Colombia 3M & Serbia 1M tests;
Asia passes 8M cases;
South America goes over 50 deaths per 100k of population, the highest of the continents;
Europe records a new daily high of 40.421 for new cases - the 36,808 the day before was also a new record;
Asia records a new daily high of 124.480 for new cases;

Tunisia (293), Czechia (1,159), Costa Rica (1,327), Argentina (12,259) and India (95.529) all recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

And, the problem with that is????

Absolutely nothing... If people could be trusted to do the right thing.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

And, the problem with that is????

Nothing in normal conditions, doing it while distancing may be a challenge for some

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

Trials of the Oxford University/Astrazeneca vaccine (AZD 1222) have been halted because one of the volunteers became ill with transverse myelitis. This is a rare disease the cause of which is not fully known. There is no information yet on how long ago the volunteer received the vaccine.
https://www.webmd.com/multiple-scler...myelitis-facts

From the article....

• AstraZeneca says reports its CEO confirmed a case of transverse myelitis in a COVID-19 vaccine trial participant are "incorrect"
• The company said the was "no final diagnosis" and the independent safety committee was conducting its review
• In July, the panel found a case of multiple sclerosis in a participant was unrelated to the vaccine

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-...nosis/12648248