Covid 19 -

[Mr_G6ET]

Hard to disagree when he has all the permits etc. Also, although the cops have a hard job, maybe frustrating in these situations but I feel this is 'over the top' conduct.
Home visit to check on him, was he to quarantine ?

Protesters, no permits equals out of line and the rules are there to get the numbers down



Thoughts ?

[Mr_G6ET]

Originally Posted by prydey

Absolutely nothing... If people could be trusted to do the right thing.

'If', I suggest that is why Dan needs to dictate, because a percentage of people won't habitually or intentionally do the right thing

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Mr_G6ET

Hard to disagree when he has all the permits etc. Also, although the cops have a hard job, maybe frustrating in these situations but I feel this is 'over the top' conduct.
Home visit to check on him, was he to quarantine ?

Protesters, no permits equals out of line and the rules are there to get the numbers down



Thoughts ?

Basically what a couple of us have been saying that there's unfair treatment where they pick and choose who they want to enforce laws on - here is an example that's plain as day. He's beat Victoria Police in court in the past over similar shenanigans.

Originally Posted by Mr_G6ET

'If', I suggest that is why Dan needs to dictate, because a percentage of people won't habitually or intentionally do the right thing

So why punish a majority? How many people have been fined out of the 6 million Victorians?

I suspect the majority of Victorians are 'doing the right thing' and the ones attempting to fight the state by breaking lockdown are in the minority.

Now if there were no restrictions and just advice to take responsibility for your own health would that minority be actively trying to undermine everything?

[FTE217]

Curfew alone is raking in $162,000 a night in fines.

From about 8.30pm at night there's a regular stream of light planes and helicopters patrolling the metro area......

Revenue never ceases.

[russellw]

Yesterday we looked at a number of European countries individually to see how they had been coping with the pandemic. Today, we are going to look at a selection of Asian countries and look at their raw case numbers and trends. Please note that the trends are all 5th Order polynomials because of the length of time the data covers. It's not ideal for some and where an alternate index has been used it is noted below.

Armenia: this is a bit of an unusual graph as it seems to suggest that they have only had a single wave that was slow developing, had a 2 month peak and has gradually (albeit inconsistently) reduced from early August. This is one of the graphs that is only 4th polynomial in the trend line and could equally have been 3rd.



Azerbaijan: this is a fairly normal shaped trend with a fairly extended first wave that took 3 months to peak followed by a 7 week fall in case numbers and then a 2nd wave over the last month which is still growing slowly.



Bahrain: this is a fairly normal shaped trend with two clearly defined waves although in this instance they really didn't get the level of reduction between them that some other countries have managed as can be seen from the fairly shallow dip in the trend line. The second wave is also just starting to be worse then the first one and whether the upward trend of the last few days continues may determine how bad it gets.



Bangladesh: this looks like they are only just coming out of the first wave and not particularly fast either. This is a 4th order polynomial.



Indonesia: this graph looks like they are only still in the midst of the first wave and the highest point was only a week ago. This is a 3rd order polynomial.



Iran: this data set is just inconsistent. They appear to have had a couple of peaks in March and June and it is trending upward again now.



Iraq: despite a later start than most with no real case numbers until the latter part of May, the numbers have continued to climb since then with the highest only 6 days ago and even yesterday barely less than that peak.



Israel: after a small early cluster, they seemed to have it under control through May and the first half of June but since then the overall trend has been upward and they recorded their highest number of cases to date, yesterday.



Japan: similar to Israel they had a small early cluster; a period of low case numbers across May and June but then they had a second wave that peaked in early August but have pretty much trended down since.



Kazakhstan: they had very low cases numbers all the way through until the end of June but then it took off with a vengeance over the following 4 weeks but they clearly got a grip on it since and case numbers have declined rapidly since that point. This is a 4th order polynomial.



Kuwait: this is another country that still looks to be their first wave and apart from a couple of weeks in June where it improved slightly the current case numbers aren't far off the peak. This is a 4th order polynomial.



Lebanon: despite a long period where it seemed to be reasonably well contained all the way through to mid-July, they have been on a steady upward climb since then.



Nepal: they look to be in the midst of a second wave after getting the first one under control in late July but the trend since has been upward and their peak thus far was only 6 days ago.



Oman: they didn't reach the peak of their first wave until mid July but they got the case numbers down very quickly from there and only the last three weeks have started to show a slight upward trend.



Pakistan: they had a long climb to their mid-June peak but the overall trend since then has been downward and even the slight kick in the trend line this last week is minor.



Philippines: they also had negligible case numbers until the latter part of May and it looks like they had a small first wave through to the end of July but instead of dropping, a second larger wave started almost immediately and has only started to decline these last three weeks or so.



Qatar: they had a fairly steep rise to a peak in early June but case numbers have been steadily dropping since about mid June although there is a slight upward trend this last two weeks or so.



Saudi Arabia: they also had a fairly steep rise to a peak in mid June but case numbers have been steadily dropping since about early July apart from a spike in mid August.



Singapore: they have had fairly inconsistent case numbers but the overall trend recently has been downward.



South Korea: after an early wave back in March they seemed to have kept it under control all the way to late July before it started to trend upwards but at levels below the early peak. Thy had another large spike (their biggest) in late August but it seems to have calmed down now.




Turkew: they also had an early peak in April which was under control all the way to August before it started to trend upwards but only slowly so it's hard to tell where they are really at.




UAE: a clear example of two distinct waves although the fall between them didn't exactly inspire confidence that they were on top of it and they are still currently in the second wave with a peak almost as high as the first.



Uzbekistan: the final graph shows a relatively benign first wave followed by a much more severe second wave that peaked in mid August before the numbers trended downward again..

[Mr_G6ET]

Originally Posted by FTE217

... From about 8.30pm at night there's a regular stream of light planes and helicopters patrolling the metro area...... Revenue never ceases.

It must be a 'strange' hearing that each day enforcing the lockdown.

I wonder how many of those fines will be actualised.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Mr_G6ET

I wonder how many of those fines will be actualised.

I understand the govt have ways of making sure fines get paid, like putting a block on your licence, registration etc preventing you from renewing until you pay up, however there are also ways the person paying the fine can make sure the govt don't see any money for a long time. Payment plan @ $1/week, or month...

[Mr_G6ET]

Originally Posted by russellw

Yesterday we looked at a number of European countries

Query, when the chart shows significant spikes, others smooth, I assume that is adhering reporting frequency ?
Some are smooth, cant imagine people in the next country die at differing rates.

What is after second wave ? a different approach or lock down the 'globe' again ?

[Mr_G6ET]

Originally Posted by prydey

I understand the govt have ways of making sure fines get paid, like putting a block on your licence, registration etc preventing you from renewing until you pay up, however there are also ways the person paying the fine can make sure the govt don't see any money for a long time. Payment plan @ $1/week, or month...

I agree, disruption, hassle etc but also how many will challenge the legality ?
Court costs v payback

[Franco Cozzo]

Lygon Street icon faces permanent closure due to COVID-19 lockdown

Lygon Street icon Toto’s Pizza is unlikely to survive the harsh COVID-19 lockdown, its owner has told Tom Elliott.

And Zain Mazloum, who took over Toto’s from his father in February, said he wouldn’t be surprised if 50 per cent of Melbourne’s restaurants went under in the coming months.

Mr Mazloum is the latest person in the hospitality industry to plead with the state government in regards to the lockdown restrictions.

He said they simply aren’t viable, with takeaway not a viable option long term.

“It’s like a nightmare, Tom,” Mr Mazloum said.

https://www.3aw.com.au/lygon-street-...d-19-lockdown/

Toto's Pizza House: a Melbourne first

Toto’s was founded in 1966 by Salvatore Della Bruna, whose family had run a pizzeria not far from Naples.

Salvatore entered into partnership with Franco Fera, and in 1968 with Silvia Tuli and Salvatore Mercogliano, and, so it is said, Melbourne’s culinary landscape was changed forever!
The humble pizza, the Neapolitan pie, the fare of peasants and working class, was soon on its way to becoming standard fare in countless suburbs and country towns, cities and shopping malls throughout Australia. Are you hungry? The fridge empty? Pizza is the cure, and a delivery boy close at hand. It is cheap enough for a cash-strapped student, and a family struggling to meet its mortgage payments. It is a feast for the masses.
Indeed, when Toto’s opened, the bulk of its customers were students from the nearby university. In time, it drew people from the suburbs throughout Melbourne. As its reputation grew, it drew customers from interstate and overseas, drawn by the legend of the first Pizza House in Australia.

It can be argued that it is Salvatore Della Bruna and his partners to whom we owe the pizza revolution.

Let’s hear it, direct from Salvatore, from an interview published in The Age in 1988 – an interview unearthed by writer Michael Harden while researching tales of Lygon Street:
‘Did I come here to make pizza? No, I would have stayed in Italy if I wanted to make pizza and spaghetti, because my family had the business from my great grandfather. My father told me: ‘You can go to Australia. You can go to America. You will end up with pizza in your hand because that’s the only thing you can do!’

The legend lives on, even though in 1982 the Fera family sold Toto’s to the Mazloum family from Lebanon. The Mazloum family has, by and large, remained faithful to the tradition, and the ambience of Australia’s first commercial pizzeria. It is a fitting story to tell at the outset of our Lygon Street la passeggiata.

https://whatsonblog.melbourne.vic.go...lbourne-first/

We're going to lose a lot of the restaurants on Lygon Street in Carlton it seems, such a shame, that strip is a cultural icon of Melbourne.

$120K PA rent, plus all their other fees, to have 4 people sitting outside after they can open?

[zilo]

Can't help but notice on every picture I see now of Melbourne just how clean the air is.
Melbourne is one of the filthiest cities for air pollution.

I wonder how many more people are dying from air pollution compared to Covid...

Probably about 3000 a year I reckon...(golly gee...who would have thought)

https://soe.environment.gov.au/theme...-air-pollution


But let's keep this lockdown thing going it's a gift that keeps on giving...

.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by zilo

Can't help but notice on every picture I see now of Melbourne just how clean the air is.
Melbourne is one of the filthiest cities for air pollution.

I wonder how many more people are dying from air pollution compared to Covid...

Probably about 3000 a year I reckon...(golly gee...who would have thought)

https://soe.environment.gov.au/theme...-air-pollution


But let's keep this lockdown thing going it's a gift that keeps on giving...

.

It seemed worse 15-20 years ago with less people, you could always see a brown haze around the city on a clear day with good visibility when you were looking at it from a distance - if you were approaching Sunbury in its outer NW heading towards Melbourne and could see the city in the distance.

It is a dirty city, I'm not sure the last time you were hanging around the CBD but it smells like urine too

[Citroënbender]

Re the case numbers in Israel, the “high holy days” are around the corner so it’s well possible that cases diagnosed will spike accordingly and only taper off in January.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by russellw

Note that the guidelines for the next Stage in the road map are based on 'metro' and ' regional' having different targets but I don't have a readily available data set to split between the two so these are the State based averages and thus show a worse result than metro would in isolation. The target is 30-50 new cases on a rolling 14D average.

This link provides the split in stats for the metro and regional zones.

https://covidlive.com.au/vic

May be of some interest to those who are keen to see how we are tracking towards the next steps in the reopening roadmap.

[rods falcon]

Thanks for the link foxtrot, very informative

[russellw]

Originally Posted by Mr_G6ET

Query, when the chart shows significant spikes, others smooth, I assume that is adhering reporting frequency ?
Some are smooth, cant imagine people in the next country die at differing rates.

What is after second wave ? a different approach or lock down the 'globe' again ?

Some of those significant spikes are catch-up reporting or the now infamous 'adjustment' where they suddenly discover that they've been counting too many people for their liking (e.g. the UK) or missed a whole pile of cases like Bolivia did last week.

I think, despite the criticism of Victoria, keeping tight control over the citizenry until reaching zero community transmission has to be the goal to avoid a potential third / fourth wave. Some of those graphs look like restrictions were eased too early which either created a spike or a long period of 'stable' case numbers rather than a reduction.

The COVID-normal world, assuming we get to zero community transmission, is going to look very different from a travel point of view as I have said before simply because some of the EU countries we looked at the other day opened borders to travellers and got themselves a pile of new cases. The reality is that if you have no cases in your community (like the NT/ACT/Tas) then 'importing' infected people is the only way you are going to get them. Thus, even if we manage to get to zero new cases as a country then we face the dilemma of how we deal with incoming visitors. Andrews was talking about mandatory (self funded) hotel quarantine the other day but I'm not sure whether he was referring to returning locals or visitors. I can't see too many people travelling to Australia to spend two weeks in Rydges Carlton COVID Carlton.

I see some EU countries now require a health certificate before entry is allowed and while that is some help, I can see all sorts of ways that system will get abused.

It's probably the biggest issue facing the travel and tourism industries and I think they need to get their collective heads together and come up with a system that has acceptance by most of the developed world.

I'm not saying it has any immediate relevance to this situation but I'm thinking of the agreement struck in the 70's where planes arriving in Australia (and many other countries) undergo disinsection (not a typo). In some places this is still in-cabin but more often now it is external.

Undoubtedly, once we get a vaccine, you'll be needing proof of it before getting a via to almost anywhere in exactly the same way as we all used to once upon a time (and still do for some places).

[HIPO]

Wonder how many lives wouldve been saved, if they allowed the use of Hydroxycloriquine.
Dan gives new meaning to term "ol china plate".

[Charliewool]

Wasn’t the disinsection spraying thing on planes more to kill “critters” ? (mossies, ants etc)

[russellw]

48 new cases for Australia and 7 deaths sees the CMR rise to 2.972% while active drop to 2,689. NSW recorded 1 cases; WA recorded 1, with the balance in Victoria. The Victorian State 14 day moving average is now 79.29 and the Metro average is 70.1 (thanks for the link).

4 new cases and zero deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.339% and active cases fall to 120.

The UK had 2,919 new cases yesterday as the 2nd wave continues to spiral out of control. We know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines so we are going to ignore those figures.

Just over 35k new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,208 deaths sees CMR rise to 2.981% and active cases drop to 38.3% with the raw numbers still dropping. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
The three worst infected countries (USA, Brazil & India) now have more than half (54%) of all global cases and 44% of all reported deaths;
India completes 52M& France10M tests;
Asia passes 8M cases;
Europerecords a new daily high of 44,006 new cases;
Asia records a new daily high of 127,339 new cases;

Angola (125), Greece (372), Palestine (745), Indonesia (3,861), Israel (4,429), Spain (10,764) and India (96,760) all recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

Wasn’t the disinsection spraying thing on planes more to kill “critters” ? (mossies, ants etc)

That is correct which is why I said it wasn't strictly relevant - just an example of an international travel agreement that is widely accepted and still in use today.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by russellw

The Victorian State 14 day moving average is now 79.29 and the Metro average is 70.1 (thanks for the link).

Hey Russ, would you mind adding the Vic regional 14 day average in your daily data for us regional folk? Would save me having to look at another website just to get one piece of data. I'm lazy

[russellw]

We'll continue the set of 'all of pandemic' graphs for specific countries with a look at the three EU majors (UK, France, Germany) as well as the African nations.

United Kingdom: it's no surprise that their first phase was severe and lasted until the end of May before the restrictions started to have an impact and numbers gradually declined until late July and they have been climbing again ever since.



Germany: a similar pattern to the UK with a severe first phase that lasted until the end of April before declining until early July and they have been steadily climbing ever since albeit at much lower levels.




France: also a similar pattern to the UK with a severe first phase that lasted until the middle of April before declining sharply until late July and they have been steadily climbing ever since at quite high levels.




Now the African nations.

Algeria: it looks like a reasonable mild first wave that lasted until late May followed by a about three weeks of decline before the second and more severe wave started and peaked in late July. Since then has decreased but not below the level of the first wave.



Angola: almost no cases recorded through until early June but since then it has steadily increased and they recorded their highest daily case numbers yesterday so there is probably still more to come.



Egypt: similar again with low cases numbers recorded through until late April but since it then rapidly increased to a peak in late June after which it rapidly decreased and has just started to creep up again this last few weeks.



Ethiopia: similar again with low cases numbers recorded through until late May but since it then their have been three distinct cluster spikes - a small one in June, a larger one in mid-July to mid-August and the largest one in the latter half of August which has only started to decline this month but case numbers remain higher than in the second spike.



Ivory Coast: similar again with low cases numbers recorded through until late May before a big spike that lasted until the latter part of July and despite being in decline since then it has started to increase again this last week or so.



Kenya: similar again with low cases numbers recorded through until late May but with a gradual climb to a peak in late July and case numbers have been pretty much in decline since then.



Libya: a very late start with almost no cases until June and even then cases numbers remained until early July but they have climbed quite steeply since then and they recorded their highest case numbers this last week.



Madagascar: almost identical to Libya initially with a very late start until early July when case numbers climbed quite steeply to peak in the third week of July before declining since and they seem to have stabilised at reasonably low levels although not at June numbers.



Mauritania: almost no cases until early June when case numbers climbed quite steeply to peak to a peak at the end of June before declining until early August when they have gradually started to climb again.



Morocco: very low case numbers until a small spike mid-June which looked to be contained quite quickly but from late July case numbers have soared with their highest totals recorded during this last week.



South Africa: it looks like only a single, albeit lengthy, wave with a gradual rise to a late July peak before a reasonably steep (but inconsistent) decline and it's now at similar levels to those in late May.



Tunisia: you could possibly call the March-April cases a first wave although at a very low level and it appeared to be well under control until mid August when numbers ramped up significantly and they continue to do so with the highest daily total only a couple of days ago.

[Mr_G6ET]

A Covid funny:



Good charts Russell, interesting to note the differing profiles, 1st v 2nd etc.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

Hey Russ, would you mind adding the Vic regional 14 day average in your daily data for us regional folk? Would save me having to look at another website just to get one piece of data. I'm lazy

I know apart from Geelong and Colac its next to nothing.

Maybe include the differences between regional and rural as well.

[five 7]

Hey Russell is there any reliable data coming out of China to see how they are faring.
Cheers.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

I know apart from Geelong and Colac its next to nothing.

Maybe include the differences between regional and rural as well.

The DHHS data page has a map that shows you the cases by either local government area or postcode. The shading gives you a quick visual guide as to where the cases are.

The problem with regional versus rural, is someone would need to collate that data into the respective categories, and I'm not aware of any site that does that at this point in time. And then you'd also need to define the difference between a rural and regional area.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by five 7

Hey Russell is there any reliable data coming out of China to see how they are faring.
Cheers.

China is still claiming the odd case or so and even fewer deaths but I don't think anyone would call it reliable by a long stretch.

[Whitey-AMG]

Originally Posted by five 7

Hey Russell is there any reliable data coming out of China to see how they are faring.
Cheers.

oxymoron

[Tickford.]

I wanted to find another country that is (a) an island, and (b) has a similar population as Australia to see how they have faired with COVID to compare.

Sri Lanka is what I came across, which has a similar population (21.5M), all living in an island the size of Tasmania!! I thought they'd be in serious trouble given they have such a large population living in such a small area. Nope. I was very wrong.

SL have so far had just over 3'000 cases and only 12 deaths! Yes, 12 deaths. I read that they went the way of somewhat of an elimination strategy very early into the pandemic, and the entire country was under full lockdown + curfew from 20th March. The lockdown lasted 52 days only. They built 45 all new quarantine centres, which to date has quarantined almost 3'500 returning locals and visiting tourists. It was very strict quarantine conditions and they did not muck around with security, having the army (fully armed) on guard duties.

Just makes you wonder if a 3rd world country like Sri Lanka with a similar size population to us, all living on an island the size of Tasmania can beat this virus, how the hell did our 1st world country get it so wrong??

I'd like to to full comparison report between the two countries strategies and how they managed beat this thing compared to us. But I cannot find enough details. Maybe Russell has more info/detail on this?

[MITCHAY]

Good to see a downward trend in Vic which we like to see considering the lockdown.

Hard to believe that we're nearing nearly 30k cases and 800 deaths now considering we almost had it sorted. Almost :(