Covid 19 -

Originally Posted by Romulus

What Im not accepting of is those who think I'm responsible for their health. Wrong.

Of course you are. You have a duty of care for the health and safety of other people.. even total strangers.

It's why you have to disclose your HIV status before having unprotected sex.
It's why you have to give way to pedestrians and can't just mow them down with your car, why you can't just knock your asbestos house down and let it blow over to your neighbour's, why you can't do a whole bunch of things... and why you're ordered to stay at home and isolate until you get your results back if you've been covid tested.

I'm not sure how to ask this without it seeming like an attack - because it isn't - but I'm curious if you've ever been diagnosed with narcissism or similar? I think it'd be interesting to know as it may go some way in explaining why you're so focused on yourself and show little to no regard for others.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by EgoFG

It is harsh, but one could say that about 70% of Covid Deaths would have died anyway.

Two points...

1. you're comparing 2018 with 2020... what social distancing measures were implemented in 2018? likely, virtually none, rendering a direct comparison irrelevant.

2. serology studies suggest the flu hit a very significant proportion of the population (close to half). covid-19 has been a fraction. now compare the death rates.

Let covid-19 run rampant, and you will have a problem that dwarfs a bad flu year.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

I wonder how Israel managed to stuff things up so bad? Unusual for them. They're usually on top of everything and ahead of the game.

Israel presents some interesting data from a study perspective. They have a National Health service with universal coverage for all residents but the hospital system is under stress at the best of times with lower rates of beds & nurses compared to the OECD average (2.2 beds & 5 nurses / 1000 population) when the OECD average is 3.6 and 8.8, respectively. Worth noting that Australia had 3.9 & 9.1 before the pandemic started. They are even worse for ICU beds / 100k with slightly under 4 (Australia was 9.4) so their ability to cope is somewhat limited. All of the above is exacerbated by being much worse outside the major cities.

The early response was good after their first case in February off the Diamond Princess. They closed borders and quarantined travellers returning from high-risk areas. They also quarantined diagnosed individuals but testing was slow to ramp up.

They also initiated mitigation steps included physical distancing and other measures like limiting the size of gatherings to 100 (11/3) and then 10 (15/3) as well as introducing a contact tracing app run by the Israeli Security Agency (and we had doubts about ours). From 19/3 they introduced a State of Emergency to make the rules enforceable and went into a lockdown similar to the current Victorian one including mandatory face masks from 25/3 and a 100M limit on the distance you could travel from home. In another mirror of Australia, from early April some cities were declared no-go hot spots and some even closed altogether.

These restrictions were gradually eased these from April 26th with reopening of street stores and barbershops but malls & gyms remained closed until May 7th when they reopened with restrictions on the number of people allowed and then on May 27th restaurants reopened, with restrictions on diners and masked staff.

In another mirroring of Victoria (or we pinched it from them) they implemented a gradual easing of lockdown restrictions included allowing outdoor groups <20, removal of the 100M limit and meetings with family members however they set reverse targets for that easing with restrictions being reintroduced if any of a number of things happened like (1) >100 new daily cases (excluding overseas arrivals, retirement homes and cases in known hotspots) (2) the doubling time of infections decreases to 10 days or (3) the number of patients in serious condition reaching 250.

Additional easing of restrictions continued throughout May and looking at that first wave graph below, you'd say they had done a good job with an early peak in the 7-800 bracket and then a gradual reduction down to ~25 cases a day with one spike that coincided with a religious celebration.



Comment: As a country with 8.6M people it's not much more than the 6.6M in Victoria and the adult populations are even closer (5M for Victoria & 6.2M for Israel) plus the population density of 400 per km² is not dissimilar to that of Greater Melbourne which is ~500.

The good news ends there. From late May it was clear that case numbers were starting to rise again but they didn't reintroduce countermeasures until July 1st with the tracking app reauthorised for use. Then on July 6th they introduced: restriction of social gatherings to <20 indoors and 30 outdoors as well as the closure of gyms, night clubs and other venues.

From 17th July, these were further tightened with no seating in bars or restaurants; weekend lockdown of non-essential businesses; beach closures and gatherings limited to 20 people outdoors, and 10 people indoors but most of those were reversed after complaints from the business community including re-opening of restaurants, pools, and beaches and weekend closures of malls / markets cancelled.

In late August they introduced a traffic-light system to rank the severity of the pandemic in each city / town / region and then closed schools and introduced a night-time curfew for towns for those classified as 'red' from September 6th.

From 18th September there is a national lockdown for 3 weeks with:

- people limited to within 500M of their homes, except for work and essential activities such as buying food;
- closure of malls, stores (except food / pharmacies), hotels, restaurants, fitness clubs and swimming pools;
- gatherings limited to 10 people indoors, or 20 people outdoors;
- closure of schools;
- no seating in bars or restaurants (delivery service & take-away allowed).

On 10th September they became the country with the highest rate of COVID-19 infections per capita with 2,198 per 100k.

The 25th May onward graph below show two things: (1) the case numbers are much higher than the first wave with peak and average case numbers up to 10x greater; and (2) the measure introduced along the way seem to have had very little overall impact.



Comment: I think the targets for reintroduction of restrictions were too high; they were too slow in reintroducing them and they caved in to business pressure when they should have stuck to their guns. I expect they will have to extend the current lockdown or risk a 3rd wave.

Here is the entire timeline graph:

[Citroënbender]

I’m not sure if they (Israel) capitulated to business pressure or pressure from the orthodoxy in terms of “reopening too soon”. I believe many more pious Israelis would put “spot risk” (meaning an exceptional event with elevated risk) ahead of overall directions for disease control. Look at the huge - even this year - pilgrimage to Uman. Relatedly, it was early in Victoria’s woes that a couple of minyans got pinged despite warnings directly delivered. If you put fealty to G_d and a dash of associated fatalism before the laws of your country, of course these things happen.

[Bossxr8]

The inquiry into the hotel quarantine debacle is a real eye opener into just how incompetent our government, and the various government run departments, really are.

No one has been able to determine who ordered the security to be done by private security. None of the relevant ministers, department heads etc. Either that or they are all lying through their teeth. Someone made the decision, it didn't just happen on it's own

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

I’m not sure if they (Israel) capitulated to business pressure or pressure from the orthodoxy in terms of “reopening too soon”. I believe many more pious Israelis would put “spot risk” (meaning an exceptional event with elevated risk) ahead of overall directions for disease control. Look at the huge - even this year - pilgrimage to Uman. Relatedly, it was early in Victoria’s woes that a couple of minyans got pinged despite warnings directly delivered. If you put fealty to G_d and a dash of associated fatalism before the laws of your country, of course these things happen.

The Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is currently under investigation for corruption. Many believe he should stand down while the investigation is ongoing.

Even his supporters believe he is at least 'distracted' by his situation and that may go some way to explaining how the governments handling of the pandemic went from great to very poor.

There is mistrust with the government and some Israelis openly defying restrictions.

There are many lessons to be learned for Australia looking at the situation in Israel.

[HIPO]

Originally Posted by leesa

Of course you are. You have a duty of care for the health and safety of other people.. even total strangers.

It's why you have to disclose your HIV status before having unprotected sex.
It's why you have to give way to pedestrians and can't just mow them down with your car, why you can't just knock your asbestos house down and let it blow over to your neighbour's, why you can't do a whole bunch of things... and why you're ordered to stay at home and isolate until you get your results back if you've been covid tested.

I'm not sure how to ask this without it seeming like an attack - because it isn't - but I'm curious if you've ever been diagnosed with narcissism or similar? I think it'd be interesting to know as it may go some way in explaining why you're so focused on yourself and show little to no regard for others.

WOW!

[HIPO]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

The Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is currently under investigation for corruption. Many believe he should stand down while the investigation is ongoing.

Even his supporters believe he is at least 'distracted' by his situation and that may go some way to explaining how the governments handling of the pandemic went from great to very poor.

There is mistrust with the government and some Israelis openly defying restrictions.

There are many lessons to be learned for Australia looking at the situation in Israel.

Yep bent as, doubt he'll be around next year!

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by b0son

Two points...

1. you're comparing 2018 with 2020... what social distancing measures were implemented in 2018? likely, virtually none, rendering a direct comparison irrelevant.

2. serology studies suggest the flu hit a very significant proportion of the population (close to half). covid-19 has been a fraction. now compare the death rates.

Let covid-19 run rampant, and you will have a problem that dwarfs a bad flu year.

Or look at it the other way around.

How many people have not been hospitalised or died from flu this year that would have in a 'normal' year because of the measures to stop Covid-19 transmission?

In Australia the number of flu deaths this winter was zero.

36 people have died of flu in Australia so far this year, last year it was about 500.

We know Covid-19 is more contagious than flu.

The hospital system would be over run if Covid-19 gets away from us, and not just by the Covid-19 infected.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/he...c56a8c0cfb7fb6

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-...ralia/12480190

[cheap]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

The inquiry into the hotel quarantine debacle is a real eye opener into just how incompetent our government, and the various government run departments, really are.

No one has been able to determine who ordered the security to be done by private security. None of the relevant ministers, department heads etc. Either that or they are all lying through their teeth. Someone made the decision, it didn't just happen on it's own

Should be easy enough to follow the paperwork and emails.

Someone in GovCo authorised the contract and payments.

Follow the money...

Pointless in claiming amnesia, a coverup is impossible as far too many people have died. If Victoria tries to wallpaper it over, then the Feds may initiate their own royal commission.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by cheap

If Victoria tries to wallpaper it over, then the Feds may initiate their own royal commission.

I would like to see a Royal commission into Royal commissions as no one is ever found accountable.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

Or look at it the other way around.

How many people have not been hospitalised or died from flu this year that would have in a 'normal' year because of the measures to stop Covid-19 transmission?

And how many people haven't been involved in workplace accidents because they weren't at work? How many fewer road accidents have there been because there were fewer people on the road?

Yes, there's been a huge economic cost. But there are a lot of people who would have otherwise been dead. Arguably, if covid-19 had been allowed to run rampant, people would have started self-isolating out of fear for themselves or for family, especially if things had started becoming like they were in Italy or Spain. I don't think it's really worthwhile blaming the government for overreacting.

[buggerlugs]

Originally Posted by leesa

I'm not sure how to ask this without it seeming like an attack - because it isn't - but I'm curious if you've ever been diagnosed with narcissism or similar? I think it'd be interesting to know as it may go some way in explaining why you're so focused on yourself and show little to no regard for others.

You know Leesa, he'll probably take that as a compliment.........

[asagaai]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

I would like to see a Royal commission into Royal commissions as no one is ever found accountable.

I was involved in an Inquest that involved a South Korean Tyre Company and it became starkly transparent what cultural divides were in place between how western companies operate and those of Southern Korea.

In my family we have a common joke about Australia being the land of Inquiries- its just the way it is here. Anything out of the ordinary on the news there are hoots about need for an inquiry.....

So it was natural with Covid 19 Australia shoots from the hip- we need an Inquiry.

Cultural divide is now an ever increasing chasm- Australia sees the need for an inquiry into Covid 19 (like a natural function akin to using toilet paper for a no 2) China sees as a personal vindictive vicious attack.

Interesting times in the world.

[Romulus]

Originally Posted by HIPO

[/COLOR]

WOW!

Yep. And a complete inability to discern what I said. The counter argument presented was utterly ridiculous, conflating laws with opinion.

Originally Posted by Romulus

Yep. And a complete inability to discern what I said. The counter argument presented was utterly ridiculous, conflating laws with opinion.

Why do you think the laws came about? Everything is an opinion until it's been legislated and it has to be done that way because there are plenty of people in the community who feel other peoples' health isn't their responsibility. So then they get told it's the law as they'd otherwise have complete disregard for others. If we're unable to get a working vaccine and it sticks around for years I'd be willing to be everything I have (which isn't much to be honest) that legislation is introduced around it, including negligence for people that knowingly expose others.

If you see a difference between your legal obligations to not harm someone else's health versus your moral obligation to not harm them.. that may not yet be illegal.. IE: opinion.. then I think you're just proving what I'm saying to be honest.

You can't just run around out in the open as much as you like potentially infecting other people and expecting everyone else to just avoid you if they don't want to get sick. We know the virus is airborne, we know it hangs around on surfaces long enough to potentially catch it that way.

What you're basically saying is that you should be able to walk around as much as you like with a loaded gun. That's how I interpret what you're saying. If I'm wrong feel free to clarify.

[russellw]

9 new cases for Australia and 2 deaths so the CMR rises to 3.191% while active cases drop to 1,671. NSW recorded 1 case, WA 3, SA recorded 1 with the balance in Victoria. The Victorian State 14 day moving average is now 29.57 with metro at 26.7 (37 unknown) and regional at 1.1 and no unknown cases.

3 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.368% and active cases rise to 65.

The UK had 6,634 new cases yesterday, the highest since April and they have implemented a 2nd lockdown. We know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines so we are going to ignore those figures.

Just over 41.5k new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,115 deaths sees CMR drop to 2.894% and active cases drop to 35.5% with the raw numbers falling slightly. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global new cases set a daily high of 316,036;
Europe recorded a new daily cases high of 61,236 - almost 10k higher than the previous mark;
The USA completes 101M, India 67M, and tests;

Lebanon (1,027), Poland (1,136), Netherlands (2,544) and Indonesia (4,634)all recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

[cs123]

Originally Posted by russellw

6 new cases for Australia and 2 deaths so the CMR rises to 3.191% while active cases drop to 1,671. NSW recorded 1 case, WA 3, SA recorded 1 with the balance in Victoria. The Victorian State 14 day moving average is now 29.57 with metro at 26.7 (37 unknown) and regional at 1.1 and no unknown cases.

3 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.368% and active cases rise to 65.

The UK had 6,634 new cases yesterday, the highest since April and they have implemented a 2nd lockdown. We know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines so we are going to ignore those figures.

Just over 41.5k new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,115 deaths sees CMR drop to 2.894% and active cases drop to 35.5% with the raw numbers falling slightly. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global new cases set a daily high of 316,036;
Europe recorded a new daily cases high of 61,236 - almost 10k higher than the previous mark;
The USA completes 101M, India 67M, and tests;

Lebanon (1,027), Poland (1,136), Netherlands (2,544) and Indonesia (4,634)all recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Russ,

Does that 6 need a 1 in front of it?

Can I make a request that you add a reporting date to your update

[Romulus]

Originally Posted by leesa

Why do you think the laws came about? Everything is an opinion until it's been legislated and it has to be done that way because there are plenty of people in the community who feel other peoples' health isn't their responsibility. So then they get told it's the law as they'd otherwise have complete disregard for others. If we're unable to get a working vaccine and it sticks around for years I'd be willing to be everything I have (which isn't much to be honest) that legislation is introduced around it, including negligence for people that knowingly expose others.

If you see a difference between your legal obligations to not harm someone else's health versus your moral obligation to not harm them.. that may not yet be illegal.. IE: opinion.. then I think you're just proving what I'm saying to be honest.

You can't just run around out in the open as much as you like potentially infecting other people and expecting everyone else to just avoid you if they don't want to get sick. We know the virus is airborne, we know it hangs around on surfaces long enough to potentially catch it that way.

What you're basically saying is that you should be able to walk around as much as you like with a loaded gun. That's how I interpret what you're saying. If I'm wrong feel free to clarify.

I don't accept your premise so I won't bother responding.

Le me repeat;

The US govt last week updated the survival rates (i.e., IF infected) for Covid19:

0-19 99.997%
20-49 99.98%
50-69 99.5%
70+ 94.6%

We can't have a society pandering to bed wetters and hypochondriacs. You're the type of person that'd be ok with someone else loosing their business, livelihood or job in order for you to feel safe. That won't happen. The rest of the world is moving on, it's about time Australia did the same.

Originally Posted by Romulus

We can't have a society pandering to bed wetters and hypochondriacs. You're the type of person that'd be ok with someone else loosing their business, livelihood or job in order for you to feel safe. That won't happen.

I hate to break it to you but that's already happened, that's the path that australian's leaders chose and yes it's been economically devastating. It sounds like you'd be happier moving overseas where they're making america great again? Is that the kind of covid response that you agree with and would like to see here?

[Romulus]

Originally Posted by leesa

I hate to break it to you but that's already happened, that's the path that australian's leaders chose and yes it's been economically devastating. It sounds like you'd be happier moving overseas where they're making america great again? Is that the kind of covid response that you agree with and would like to see here?

People aren't ok with their business, livelihoods or job being destroyed to make you feel safe. You've answered your own question.

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by Romulus

People aren't ok with their business, livelihoods or job being destroyed to make you feel safe. You've answered your own question.

Quoting the figures from the US is misleading. When the virus gets into the refugee camps and slums of the poorer countries the death rate will be much higher. Lots of people aren't ok with that.

Originally Posted by Romulus

People aren't ok with their business, livelihoods or job being destroyed to make you feel safe. You've answered your own question.

I haven't answered it, you dodged it. Do you prefer how the united states have handled this and would you like to see that kind of approach here instead of what we have had to date?

Originally Posted by Romulus

If we were worried about deaths in Australia, we would make the speed limits 50km/h universally. You understand that? If you were worried about death, in Australia, for any reason, you'd not only have the current policies of Victoria, but you'd ban tobacco, alcohol, indeed anything that could possibly lead to death or fatalities.

But we don't. We live in a world where we constantly do cost benefit analysis and risk analysis. Everything is about trading off the risk of encountering a virus with a 99.99x% survival rate (if infected) for the benefits of being able to go to work, have a job and income, seeing your friends and family.

and the leaders of the country have decided the risk from this virus justifies shutdown, social isolation and ultimately the economy for the sake of peoples' lives. why is it that you think they made the wrong choice? why is it that you don't think this virus is different given the government has never done that for the regular seasonal flus? doesn't that say to you that this virus is more dangerous than the flu? and i'll ask again because you seem to be ignoring it - do you prefer the approach that the united states has taken?

[russellw]

Originally Posted by cs123

Russ,

Does that 6 need a 1 in front of it?

Can I make a request that you add a reporting date to your update

I can add a reporting date. The 6 is based on the number that is in the global data set but it is only applicable at the time of day and varies based on the time I do it which was earlier than normal today. It is currently at 9 so I'll update the data. Ideally, they need to be done about this time of day as most of the data is in by about 11:00 our time.

[Danny]

Hey Russ, out of interest, how come you’re a day behind with your reports?

[PhilT2]

In Minnesota the CDC attempted to do a door to door survey to determine how far the virus had spread and who had been infected. The survey had to be halted due to multiple incidents of intimidation, racial slurs and threats.
https://www.startribune.com/covid-19...ion/572535141/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yfThrHJpkQ

[russellw]

Originally Posted by Danny

Hey Russ, out of interest, how come you’re a day behind with your reports?

Because these are global data sets and the rest of the world doesn't run to our time.

As noted earlier, if I compile them before about 11:00 our time, a lot of the South American data isn't in so while the individual country data is based on the previous day (using GMT), the continent data is based on the last complete day which will be, for example, the 24th September today.

This is further complicated by the fact that whereas most countries are reporting from 00:00-23:59 as their day, we've chosen to make the Australian reporting period inconsistent with some States ending their day at 20:00 or 21:00 while others, like Victoria close each 24 hour period at 10:00.

[DJR-351]

[russellw]

Data valid as at 23:45 GMT September 25th, 2020.

20 new cases for Australia and 6 deaths so the CMR rises to 3.219% while active cases drop to 1,608. NSW recorded 4 cases with the balance in Victoria. The Victorian State 14 day moving average is now 27.5 with metro at 23.6 (31 unknown) and regional at 0.8 and no unknown cases.

2 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.367% and active cases fall to 60.

The UK had 6,873 new cases yesterday, the highest since April and they have implemented a 2nd lockdown. We know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines so we are going to ignore those figures.

Just over 45.5k new cases in the USA yesterday and 924 deaths sees CMR drop to 2.888% and active cases drop to 35.4% with the raw numbers rising slightly. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
The global new case high from yesterday was reduced below the level of the previous high;
Europe recorded an amended daily case high of 57,782;
The USA completes 102M, India 68M, Russia 44M, UK 23M and Belgium 3M tests;
Asia passes 10M cases;

Denmark (678), Lebanon (1,143), Poland (1,587), Netherlands (2,777 for 5 days in a row), Ukraine (3,827), Indonesia (4,823) and Argentina (13,467 the day before yesterday) all recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.