Russia v Ukraine

[zilo]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

.......
Over 5 million people have evacuated. Would suggest weapons stop getting funneled through evacuation corridors to avoid them "collapsing" in the future. Unless they want to use evacuees as human shields.

You are spot on.

[Cav]

Originally Posted by Mulva

I'd read people question the way Putin walks in last 18 months and instances where he doesn't seem to have 100% control of his right arm and leg - wonder if this recent footage has been tampered with or if he has Parkinsons or some other form of MND

https://twitter.com/i/status/1517737876276060160

And that recent footage with his Defence Minister where Putin is gripping the table tightly with his right hand - maybe that was to control involuntary movements, but could also have been trying to hold in a fart.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8q0H3-8Tw0

It is called the gunslinger's gait

It is from his KGB days

[Mulva]

Gunslinger's gait is keeping right hand to his side (near to where you'd have a sidearm holstered).

That first clip is not gunslinger's gait, that is the hokey pokey where he puts his right arm in and shakes it all about.

Surely this propaganda fail is faked - could they really be so incompetent to literally sign off with "signature unclear", and to include a Sims 3 game instead of 3 SIM cards?

https://twitter.com/Zeddary/status/1...5Es1_&ref_url=

Got to be a joke, yeah? If not, then that is both hilarious and concerning...lol'ed at the response likening "signature unclear" with this:

[T3rminator]

It's been reported that Putin has agreed to a humanitarian corridor for the civilians trapped in Mariupol. Agreement was for civilians to be evacuated by Red Cross. He agreed it with the Head of UN. Heard on the radio this morning that Kyiv rejects the idea because it was a "unilateral" decision and they were not consulted. Not sure if they were referring to the corridor or a general "cease fire". Anyhow, some news sites reporting that Mariupol is being shelled, some are suggesting it is the corridor itself.


Also, Transnistria, a "breakaway" region in Moldova, has reportedly been under attack (WTF?!). Ukraine say the Russians are trying to drag their neighbour into the war. Transnistria authorities say the attack originated from the Ukrainians.

Good luck world.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Mulva

Gunslinger's gait is keeping right hand to his side (near to where you'd have a sidearm holstered).

I read Cav's post as a tongue and cheek dig Those two videos suggests there is something not right. His face looks bloated to me, so there is a good chance he is unwell.

But then he was fine when he delivered that presentation with all the air stewardess around. And just a day or so ago he was giving out medals at a ceremony for the olympians. Seemed fine then.

Question though, given the information warfare being fought, why would Russia release videos where there is evidence of him being so obviously unwell? Strange.

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

I read Cav's post as a tongue and cheek dig Those two videos suggests there is something not right. His face looks bloated to me, so there is a good chance he is unwell.

I don't think it matters If he dropped dead tomorrow they would just find another a/hole to take his place. There is an unlimited supply and not just in Russia.

[Mulva]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

...Question though, given the information warfare being fought, why would Russia release videos where there is evidence of him being so obviously unwell? Strange.

Definitely, but then they have made so many mistakes in their information warfare over the last couple of months that it could just be they didn't think people would notice.

There was the video of Russians handing out humanitarian aid, which on closer inspection showed they were handing out products that were Ukrainian labelled and only manufactured and sold in Ukraine...they released video of them giving out small amounts of what they had looted from a local warehouse. They didn't think people would notice that - and when they were called out they pulled the original video and re-posted a shortened version that showed them giving out bottled water only (the rest of the footage of them giving out looted Ukrainian items was cut).

There was the video they posted of the Russian soldier receiving a medal for fighting Nazis...they didn't think people would notice he was wearing neo-Nazi insignia on his sleeve. Again, when this was pointed out, they re-posted another version of the video where that guy was cut out of the medal presentation.



There was that rocket attack on Lviv train station that the Russians posted within minutes was a successful attack of theirs using a certain type of rocket. Then when the large number of civilian casualties were released they pulled those posts and said it was the Ukrainians and only the Ukrainians have those type of rockets and Russia doesn't have those rockets. They didn't think people would notice that not all that long ago they had posted video of them showing off those rockets in a military parade.

So it could be yet another unintentional fail - could be that it was not pre-recorded and they did not get a re-shoot? Who knows. Could be there were many takes, and that was the best of them?

[MITCHAY]

A couple of interesting developments today. Poland and Bulgaria being cut off from Russia gas for not paying in roubles.

Not sure what the other EU countries are doing at the moment with payment or this is starting point for the others. It also removes leverage on providing more weapons to if say one or both cop it. They can only threaten to invade or nuke a NATO country otherwise

Another is Australia sending 6 M777 howitzers. We only have a stock of 54 so not much on its own but picking up a couple of a few countries will help.

Our total commitment so far is at or very quickly approaching $300m in both military and humanitarian assistance.

Javelin and Stinger supply might start slowing up though. Demand is higher than current production capability. They may have to be more selective with using these.

[burnz]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

A couple of interesting developments today. Poland and Bulgaria being cut off from Russia gas for not paying in roubles.

Not sure what the other EU countries are doing at the moment with payment or this is starting point for the others. It also removes leverage on providing more weapons to if say one or both cop it. They can only threaten to invade or nuke a NATO country otherwise

Another is Australia sending 6 M777 howitzers. We only have a stock of 54 so not much on its own but picking up a couple of a few countries will help.

Our total commitment so far is at or very quickly approaching $300m in both military and humanitarian assistance.

Javelin and Stinger supply might start slowing up though. Demand is higher than current production capability. They may have to be more selective with using these.

the current turn around is six years for replacement, throw in silicon chip shortage aswell..

[MITCHAY]

Originally Posted by burnz

the current turn around is six years for replacement, throw in silicon chip shortage aswell..

32 months just for Javelins. Stingers are more complicated by the fact the US is in the process of replacing them and didn't intend on producing them. And then add on the chips shortage as you said.

[nstg8a]

Meanwhile china is sending robot soldiers into the China/India border…

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

32 months just for Javelins. Stingers are more complicated by the fact the US is in the process of replacing them and didn't intend on producing them. And then add on the chips shortage as you said.

The auto industry uses cheap Chinese computer chips; the US arms industry will be using US made gear. The US govt has the power to order manufacturers to drop everything else and make what they are told to make. If this turns into a race between whoever can make the most weapons in the shortest time I think the Russians are screwed. Their economy is smaller than California's.

The US also has recent experience in transporting an entire army and its equipment to another country. But it's a lot more complicated than that. This is a bit long but goes into the complexities of it all.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2ptG1IxZ08&t=3094s

[MITCHAY]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

The auto industry uses cheap Chinese computer chips; the US arms industry will be using US made gear. The US govt has the power to order manufacturers to drop everything else and make what they are told to make. If this turns into a race between whoever can make the most weapons in the shortest time I think the Russians are screwed. Their economy is smaller than California's.

The US also has recent experience in transporting an entire army and its equipment to another country. But it's a lot more complicated than that. This is a bit long but goes into the complexities of it all.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2ptG1IxZ08&t=3094s

Yes already talk about invoking the Defence Production Act to ramp things up.

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

Yes already talk about invoking the Defence Production Act to ramp things up.

I think that the real question will be not how much can be made but how much Nato is willing to provide. If the upcoming US elections turn into a bidding war between the two parties over who is going to provide more arms to Ukraine then each Ukrainian household will get its own howitzer and Abrams tank.

[Citroënbender]

I hope behind this move to increased firepower, is a quiet focus on defeat by technology rather than overt force. It could save lives, save some face.

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

I hope behind this move to increased firepower, is a quiet focus on defeat by technology rather than overt force. It could save lives, save some face.

Sadly the only purpose of the tech is to increase the body count which is the only way this will end. The Ukrainians are defending their own country so will hang on until the losses are unbearable. The Russians will conceal their losses from their own people as much as possible until they become too much to hide.

There's speculation that the Ukrainians want to take out the 18k long bridge between Crimea and Russia but lack the capacity to do so at the moment. The US could help with that and it may be a way to bring home to Russia that they are involved in a real war not a "special military operation". Though I doubt Putin can be swayed by unrest among the civilian population. But it would be an event too significant to conceal.

[zilo]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

Sadly the only purpose of the tech is to increase the body count which is the only way this will end.

Most wars end regardless of the body count.

Originally Posted by PhilT2

The Ukrainians are defending their own country so will hang on until the losses are unbearable.

Or until their govt tells them to stop because NATO (aka the US) didn't magically save their backsides at the drop of a hat like they thought they would when they poked the bear.

Originally Posted by PhilT2

The Russians will conceal their losses from their own people as much as possible until they become too much to hide.

Their losses,historically, have a long way to go before that becomes a problem

[zilo]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

There's speculation that the Ukrainians want to take out the 18k long bridge between Crimea and Russia but lack the capacity to do so at the moment. The US could help with that .

Not gunna happen...nuclear war almost straight away.

[PhilT2]

A British journalist visiting Chernobyl for the 36th anniversary of the disaster (26th April) confirms the stories of Russian troops digging trenches and sleeping in a highly radioactive area.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_cnZjlgGE4

The latest commitment by Germany to send Flugwehrkanonepanzers to Ukraine makes it seem to me that they are now less concerned about the Russians turning off the supply of gas. Although this gear is not exactly the latest and greatest it marks a significant change in German policy. Along with statements from a British govt minister about not being concerned if Ukraine makes attacks on Russian territory with NATO supplied weapons it indicates a trend towards escalation by the west.

[MITCHAY]

The White House has asked Congress for $33b for Ukraine. To give some perspective to how much ****ing money this is, it's almost the entire ADF budget when converted and that is without personnel. In other words a ****load of weapons. A huge escalation if it is passed.

More threats of nuclear war and WW3 from Russia for supplying weapons. It's one thing to target weapons convoys in Ukraine which would be fair game in the context of this war but another thing entirely to attack the source of those outside of Ukraine, let alone with nuclear warheads.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

The White House has asked Congress for $33b for Ukraine. To give some perspective to how much ****ing money this is, it's almost the entire ADF budget when converted and that is without personnel. In other words a ****load of weapons. A huge escalation if it is passed.

More threats of nuclear war and WW3 from Russia for supplying weapons. It's one thing to target weapons convoys in Ukraine which would be fair game in the context of this war but another thing entirely to attack the source of those outside of Ukraine, let alone with nuclear warheads.

Stats on military aid given to Ukraine, by country, so far. No 2 is a surprise.
https://www.statista.com/chart/27278...ne-by-country/

Hope there is someone on the other end checking where its all going, both military and non military.

[MITCHAY]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Stats on military aid given to Ukraine, by country, so far. No 2 is a surprise.
https://www.statista.com/chart/27278...ne-by-country/

Hope there is someone on the other end checking where its all going, both military and non military.

Yes I'ma bit surprised that Estonia is second but then again apart from a moral victory, we are all in this for ourselves. They are trying to pay up front.

The US and Australia at least are trying to discourage a future kickoff with China against Taiwan and whoever else. We are already nearly $300m AUD in which is ****en huge.

Also full disclosure, the $33b included appropriations for extra US troop deployments and topping up supplies, but either way it is a huge amount of money to ask for and still a ****ing huge lot of weapons.

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

We are already nearly $300m AUD in which is ****en huge.

The Bushmasters we sent to Ukraine weren't new; they were used ones from Scotty's Used Cars. Probably had a few miles on the clock from when we used them in Afghanistan and may have been scheduled for replacement anyway. I don't know the real value of a used Bushmaster but I bet the figure we were told is actually what they cost new.

[MITCHAY]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

The Bushmasters we sent to Ukraine weren't new; they were used ones from Scotty's Used Cars. Probably had a few miles on the clock from when we used them in Afghanistan and may have been scheduled for replacement anyway. I don't know the real value of a used Bushmaster but I bet the figure we were told is actually what they cost new.

No they were not new probably like a lot of aid being sent. We refitted them including a full paint job. They are battle proven in Afghanistan and Iraq, far better than what they had.

They asked and we delivered, I have seen videos with them already at least in trial there fitted with weapons.

A couple of days ago there was a radar track with a An-124 and we were thinking WTF but turns out that was another Bushmaster delivery.

Also the have already landed the 6 M777 Howitzers on a RAAF C-17 in Poland.

I'd like to see the HMAS Canberra and/or Adelaide loaded up with refreshed Bushmasters, we have heaps of them and they are no use to us as a primary defence.

[MITCHAY]

What does the 15 paint job looking like a speed limit sign on every Bushmaster mean. It's been driving me crazy forever. I have been digging but can't find ****. They even have it on the paint job we sent to Ukraine

[T3rminator]

It would appear some of the $$$ pledged are not going to Ukraine directly. They are going to allies who have donated their weapons to Ukraine, with the intention that these allies will order modern stocks to replenish their supplies. So yes, Ukraine is getting some used and perhaps obsolete weapons, whilst the allies are restocking with more modern ones. The way I read it, American tax payers are paying for all of this, whilst manufacturers are laughing all the way to the bank. Also read that the US can't really afford to send anymore of their physical ammunition over to Ukraine, the Ukranians are using up a week's supply in a single day, and the US need to maintain stock for their "rainy day". So using up stocks from allies in the mean time makes sense.

https://www.defensenews.com/congress...ne-and-allies/

https://www.defensenews.com/global/e...ns-to-ukraine/


I just hope in the long run, this does not result in a Taliban version 2, Euro style.

[FairmontGS]

Day 52 to Day 65, Putin Army advancing at a rapid rate back towards Russia...




https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...ge-to-the-west

[T3rminator]

The good old satellite evidence...

[FairmontGS]

Whoopsie

DYOR

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eva_Bartlett

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Whoopsie

DYOR

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eva_Bartlett

Cute profile pic. Did wikipedia proof or disprove the video?

Its interesting that you would want to get rid of evidence by digging mass graves that are nicely lined up in formations.

https://www.npr.org/sections/picture...tellite-images